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Objective: To evaluate the magnitude of the potential underestimation of the proportion of cancer cases attributable to excess weight, known as population attributable fraction (PAF), due to potential bias from prediagnostic weight loss already present at baseline of cohort studies and to overcome it as much as possible., Methods: Data from the UK Biobank cohort participants aged 40-69 without prior cancer diagnosis were analyzed. We assessed the magnitude of associations of excess weight with the incidence of obesity-related cancers combined, and separately for gastrointestinal (GI) and other cancers. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI), and PAFs for excess weight at baseline were estimated for various periods of time after weight measurements., Findings: Of 458,660 participants, 20,218 individuals developed obesity-related cancers during a median 11.0-year follow-up, comprising 8,460 GI, and 11,765 non-GI cancers. PAFs were much higher for cancers occurring more than four years after recruitment than for cancers occurring within the initial four years: 17.7% versus 7.2%, 21.4% versus 11.7% for GI, non-GI and all obesity-related cancers combined, respectively. With respect to total cancer (including cancers with no established relationship with excess weight), PAFs were estimated as 5.1% and 8.8% for the 0-4 and 4-14-year periods of follow-up., Conclusion: The proportion of cancers attributable to excess weight is likely substantially larger than previously estimated based on cohort studies with short follow-up time or no or only limited exclusion of the early years of follow-up from the analyses., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background : Potential calcium-related adverse events of vitamin D supplement use have not been addressed in large-scale, real-world data so far. Methods: Leveraging data from the UK Biobank, encompassing 445,493 individuals aged 40-69, we examined associations of high 25-hydroxyvitamin (25(OH)D) levels ≥ 100 nmol/L and vitamin D supplementation with hypercalcemia (serum calcium > 2.6 mmol/L), kidney stones, and atherosclerosis assessments (pulse wave arterial stiffness index and carotid intima-medial thickness). Regression models were comprehensively adjusted for 49 covariates. Results: Approximately 1.5% of the participants had high 25(OH)D levels, 4.3% regularly used vitamin D supplements, and 20.4% reported regular multivitamin use. At baseline, the hypercalcemia prevalence was 1.6%, and 1.1% was diagnosed with kidney stones during follow-up. High 25(OH)D levels were neither associated with calcium-related adverse events nor atherosclerosis assessments. Vitamin D and multivitamin supplementation were associated with an increased prevalence of hypercalcemia (odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals: 1.46 [1.32-1.62] and 1.11 [1.04-1.18], respectively) but were neither associated with atherosclerosis nor future kidney stones. Conclusions: High 25(OH)D levels observable in routine care were not associated with any adverse outcome. Vitamin D users have a slightly higher prevalence of hypercalcemia, possibly due to co-supplementation with calcium, but without a higher atherosclerosis prevalence or risk of kidney stones.

Background: Studies of the associations of polypharmacy and frailty with adverse health outcomes in middle-aged adults are limited. Furthermore, a potentially stronger association of polypharmacy with adverse health outcomes in frail than in non-frail adults is of interest., Objective: To evaluate associations of frailty (assessed using a frailty index) and polypharmacy (defined as taking five or more drugs) with major cardiovascular events, cancer incidence, all-cause, cardiovascular disease-specific, and cancer-specific mortality., Methods: Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze 501,548 participants of the UK Biobank cohort study aged 40-69 years who were followed up for an average of 12 years., Results: The prevalence of pre-frailty and frailty were 43.2 % and 2.3 %, respectively, and that of polypharmacy was 18.3 %. Although strongly associated with each other, frailty and polypharmacy were independently, statistically significantly associated with major cardiovascular events, cardiovascular disease-specific, and all-cause mortality. In addition, the hazard ratios of polypharmacy were stronger among (pre-)frail than non-frail study participants. No profound associations with cancer incidence and cancer mortality were observed. No sex and age differences were observed., Conclusions: This large cohort study showed that polypharmacy and frailty are independent risk factors for major cardiovascular events, cardiovascular disease-specific and all-cause mortality in both middle-aged (40-64 years) and older people (≥ 65 years). In addition, the hazard ratios of polypharmacy were stronger among (pre-)frail than non-frail study participants. This underlines the need to avoid polypharmacy as far as possible not only in older but also in middle-aged subjects (40-64 years), especially if they are pre-frail or frail., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no competing interest., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: The current knowledge on pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk factors is limited and no study has comprehensively tested the exposome in combination with the genetic variability in relation to the disease susceptibility., Aim: The aim of this study was to analyze the exposome and its interaction with known genetic susceptibility loci, in relation to PDAC risk., Methods: A case-control study nested in UK Biobank cohort was conducted on 816 PDAC cases and 302,645 controls. A total of 347 exposure variables, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) were analyzed through logistic regression. Gene-environment interaction analyses were conducted., Results: A total of 52 associations under the Bonferroni corrected threshold of p < 1.46 × 10 -4 were observed. Known risk factors such as smoking, pancreatitis, diabetes, PRS, heavy alcohol drinking and overweight were replicated in this study. As for novel associations, a clear indication for length and intensity of mobile phone use and the stress-related factors and stressful events with increase of PDAC risk was observed. Although the PRS was associated with PDAC risk (P = 2.09 × 10 -9 ), statistically significant gene-exposome interactions were not identified., Conclusion: In conclusion, our results suggest that a stressful lifestyle and sedentary behaviors may play a major role in PDAC susceptibility independently from the genetic background., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest All the authors have no conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Post-surgery blood-based biomarkers may be useful for guiding treatment and surveillance decisions among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. However, most candidate biomarkers provide little if any predictive value beyond stage at diagnosis. We aimed to investigate the independent prognostic value of post-operative serum C-reactive protein (CRP), a highly sensitive biomarker of inflammation, for long-term CRC outcomes in two large patient cohorts., Materials and Methods: CRP levels were measured from serum samples of CRC patients collected ≥1 month post-surgery in the German DACHS (n = 1416) and the UK Biobank (n = 1149) cohorts. Associations of post-operative CRP with overall survival (OS) and CRC-specific survival (CSS) were assessed using Cox regression and presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for key sociodemographic and clinical covariates., Results: In both cohorts, consistent strong dose-response relationships between post-operative CRP and both OS and CSS were observed. Adjusted HRs (95% CI) for CRP >10 versus <3 mg/l were 1.93 (1.58-2.35) and 2.70 (2.03-3.59) in the DACHS cohort, and 2.70 (1.96-3.71) and 2.61 (1.83-3.72) in the UK Biobank cohort, respectively. Associations between post-operative CRP and OS were particularly strong among younger patients (<65 years at diagnosis; P value for interaction by age <0.01)., Conclusions: Serum CRP determined a month or more after surgery may be useful as a strong independent prognostic biomarker for guiding therapeutic decisions and for surveillance of the course of disease of CRC patients, particularly those <65 years of age at diagnosis., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Recent advances in the field of immuno-oncology have brought transformative changes in the management of cancer patients. The immune profile of tumours has been found to have key value in predicting disease prognosis and treatment response in various cancers. Multiplex immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence have emerged as potent tools for the simultaneous detection of multiple protein biomarkers in a single tissue section, thereby expanding opportunities for molecular and immune profiling while preserving tissue samples. By establishing the phenotype of individual tumour cells when distributed within a mixed cell population, the identification of clinically relevant biomarkers with high-throughput multiplex immunophenotyping of tumour samples has great potential to guide appropriate treatment choices. Moreover, the emergence of novel multi-marker imaging approaches can now provide unprecedented insights into the tumour microenvironment, including the potential interplay between various cell types. However, there are significant challenges to widespread integration of these technologies in daily research and clinical practice. This review addresses the challenges and potential solutions within a structured framework of action from a regulatory and clinical trial perspective. New developments within the field of immunophenotyping using multiplexed tissue imaging platforms and associated digital pathology are also described, with a specific focus on translational implications across different subtypes of cancer. © 2024 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland., (© 2024 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.)

Introduction: We aimed to investigate associations between common infections and neuroimaging markers of dementia risk (brain volume, hippocampal volume, white matter lesions) across three population-based studies., Methods: We tested associations between serology measures (pathogen serostatus, cumulative burden, continuous antibody responses) and outcomes using linear regression, including adjustments for total intracranial volume and scanner/clinic information (basic model), age, sex, ethnicity, education, socioeconomic position, alcohol, body mass index, and smoking (fully adjusted model). Interactions between serology measures and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype were tested. Findings were meta-analyzed across cohorts (N main  = 2632; N APOE-interaction  = 1810)., Results: Seropositivity to John Cunningham virus associated with smaller brain volumes in basic models (β = -3.89 mL [-5.81, -1.97], P adjusted  < 0.05); these were largely attenuated in fully adjusted models (β = -1.59 mL [-3.55, 0.36], P = 0.11). No other relationships were robust to multiple testing corrections and sensitivity analyses, but several suggestive associations were observed., Discussion: We did not find clear evidence for relationships between common infections and markers of dementia risk. Some suggestive findings warrant testing for replication., (© 2024 The Authors. Alzheimer's & Dementia published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.)

Background: Whether cancer risk associated with a higher body mass index (BMI), a surrogate measure of adiposity, differs among adults with and without cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and/or type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate separate and joint associations of BMI and CVD/T2D with the risk of cancer., Methods: This is an individual participant data meta-analysis of two prospective cohort studies, the UK Biobank (UKB) and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC), with a total of 577,343 adults, free of cancer, T2D, and CVD at recruitment. We used Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between BMI and incidence of obesity-related cancer and in turn overall cancer with a multiplicative interaction between BMI and the two cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). HRs and 95% CIs for separate and joint associations for categories of overweight/obesity and CMD status were estimated, and additive interaction was quantified through relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI)., Results: In the meta-analysis of both cohorts, BMI (per ~ 5 kg/m 2 ) was positively associated with the risk of obesity-related cancer among participants without a CMD (HR: 1.11, 95%CI: 1.07,1.16), among participants with T2D (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.05,1.18), among participants with CVD (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11,1.24), and suggestively positive among those with both T2D and CVD (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94,1.25). An additive interaction between obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ) and CVD with the risk of overall cancer translated into a meta-analytical RERI of 0.28 (95% CI: 0.09-0.47)., Conclusions: Irrespective of CMD status, higher BMI increased the risk of obesity-related cancer among European adults. The additive interaction between obesity and CVD suggests that obesity prevention would translate into a greater cancer risk reduction among population groups with CVD than among the general population., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

It is unknown whether the well-known association between vitamin D deficiency and mortality could be explained by the immune system modulating effects of vitamin D, which may protect from a systemic inflammatory response (SIR) to adverse health conditions. This study aims to investigate the interrelationships of vitamin D deficiency, biomarkers of SIR, and mortality. We used multivariate logistic regression with adjustment for 51 covariates to assess the associations of vitamin D deficiency with disadvantageous levels of nine biomarkers of SIR in the UK Biobank cohort. Furthermore, we tested with Cox regression and mediation analysis whether biomarkers of SIR and vitamin D deficiency were independently associated with mortality. We included 397,737 participants aged 37-73 years. Vitamin D deficiency was associated with disadvantageous levels of all blood cell count-based biomarkers, but not with C-reactive protein (CRP)-based biomarkers after adjustment for body weight. Vitamin D deficiency and all biomarkers of SIR were significantly associated with all-cause mortality and mortality from cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory disease. The strength of these associations was unaltered if vitamin D deficiency and biomarkers of SIR were put in the same model. This finding was further supported by the mediation analyses. This study showed that vitamin D deficiency is associated with disadvantageous levels of blood cell count-based but not CRP-based biomarkers of SIR. Vitamin D deficiency and systemic inflammation were independently and strongly associated with mortality. The potential of clinical interventions against both vitamin D deficiency and underlying causes of systemic inflammation should be explored., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: The association between excess weight and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may have been underestimated due to potential weight loss during pre-clinical sojourn time of CRC. We aimed to investigate this association and the corresponding population attributable fraction (PAF), accounting for prediagnostic weight loss., Methods: Data from the UK Biobank prospective cohort were used. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for various periods of follow-up and the corresponding PAF of excess weight were calculated., Results: During a median of 10.0 years of follow-up, of 453,049 participants, 4794 developed CRC. The excess weight-CRC association became substantially stronger with including increasing lengths of follow-up in the analyses and further excluding the initial years of follow-up. HRs (95% CIs) for overweight and obesity were 1.06 (0.97-1.16) and 1.14 (1.03-1.26) after 7 years of follow-up, 1.13 (1.05-1.21) and 1.23 (1.14-1.33) when including complete follow-up length, and 1.26 (1.12-1.43) and 1.42 (1.24-1.63) when excluding the initial 7 years of follow-up. The corresponding PAFs of excess weight were estimated as 6.8%, 11.3%, and 19.0%, respectively., Conclusions: Comprehensive consideration of the potential effect of prediagnostic weight loss discloses a much stronger impact of excess body weight on CRC risk than previously assumed., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Amino acid metabolism is dysregulated in colorectal cancer patients; however, it is not clear whether pre-diagnostic levels of amino acids are associated with subsequent risk of colorectal cancer. We investigated circulating levels of amino acids in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and UK Biobank cohorts., Methods: Concentrations of 13-21 amino acids were determined in baseline fasting plasma or serum samples in 654 incident colorectal cancer cases and 654 matched controls in EPIC. Amino acids associated with colorectal cancer risk following adjustment for the false discovery rate (FDR) were then tested for associations in the UK Biobank, for which measurements of 9 amino acids were available in 111,323 participants, of which 1221 were incident colorectal cancer cases., Results: Histidine levels were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (odds ratio [OR] 0.80 per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.92, FDR P-value=0.03) and in UK Biobank (HR 0.93 per SD, 95% CI 0.87-0.99, P-value=0.03). Glutamine levels were borderline inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (OR 0.85 per SD, 95% CI 0.75-0.97, FDR P-value=0.08) and similarly in UK Biobank (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89-1.01, P=0.09) In both cohorts, associations changed only minimally when cases diagnosed within 2 or 5 years of follow-up were excluded., Conclusions: Higher circulating levels of histidine were associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer in two large prospective cohorts. Further research to ascertain the role of histidine metabolism and potentially that of glutamine in colorectal cancer development is warranted., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized cancer therapy. However, structured knowledge to mitigate a patient's specific risk of developing adverse events are limited. Nevertheless, there is an exponential growth of clinical studies combining conventional therapies such as radiation therapy (RT) with ICIs. Cutaneous reactions are among the most common adverse events after monotherapy with either ICIs or RT. So far, little is known about interindividual differences for the risk of developing severe tissue toxicity after the combination of RT with ICIs, and the underlying biological mechanisms are ill defined. We used experimental models of RT-induced skin injury to analyze skin toxicity after simultaneous application of ICIs. We compared different RT regimens such as fractionated or stereotactic RT with varying dose intensity. Strikingly, we found that simultaneous application of RT and ICIs did not significantly aggravate acute skin injury in two different mouse strains. Detailed examination of long-term tissue damage of the skin revealed similar signs of epidermal hyperplasia, dermal fibrosis, and adnexal atrophy. In summary, we here present the first experimental study demonstrating the excellent safety profiles of concurrent treatment with RT and ICIs. These findings will help to interpret the development of adverse events of the skin after radioimmunotherapy and guide the design of new clinical trials and clinical decision-making in individual cases. © 2022 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland., (© 2022 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.)

Background: Rapid population ageing has raised the proportion of older former smokers considerably, but a comprehensive assessment tool of former smoking-related health risks is absent., Objective: We utilised the large-scale data of UK Biobank and ESTHER study to build a former smoking score (FSS) for older former smokers using three major former smoking traits: pack-years, smoking duration and time since smoking cessation., Design: UK Biobank and ESTHER study are two cohorts of older adults with 502,528 and 9,940 participants from the UK and Germany, respectively., Methods: Smoking history and covariates were retrieved from the self-administrated questionnaires and mortality and morbidity data were obtained through regular linkages to hospital records., Results: We constructed the FSS based on the 94,446 former smokers of UK Biobank by retrieving the averaged effect estimates of each trait with a 100-time random sampling. This score was robustly associated with higher risks of mortality and incidence of major smoking-related diseases, outperforming each trait. In the validation panel of 2,683 former smokers from ESTHER study, the FSS was highly predictive of mortality and morbidities. Particularly, compared with the 1st quartile of the FSS group, the 4th quartile group had 114.1, 104.5 and 158.9% higher risks of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality, respectively, and 41.9, 31.9, 52.4 and 831.3% higher risks of incident CVD, type 2 diabetes, any cancers and lung cancer, respectively., Conclusions: Our study demonstrates the large potential of refined risk assessment of former smokers by more comprehensive consideration of the major traits of former smoking., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: With growing evidence on the protective effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) in coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), we aimed to thoroughly investigate the association between the use of major classes of antihypertensive medications and Covid-19 outcomes in comparison with the use of ACEIs and ARBs., Methods: We conducted a population-based study in patients with pre-existing hypertension in the UK Biobank with data from the first 2 SARS-CoV-2 waves prior population-based vaccination. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed adjusting for a wide range of confounders., Results: The use of either β-blockers (BBs), calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) or diuretics was associated with a higher risk of Covid-19 hospitalization compared to ACEI use (adjusted OR (95%CI): 1.66 [1.43-1.93]) and ARB use (1.53 [1.30-1.81]). The risk of 28-day mortality among Covid-19 patients was also increased among users of BBs, CCBs or diuretics when compared to ACEI users (1.74 [1.30-2.33]) but not when compared to ARB users (1.26 [0.93-1.71]). The association between BB, CCB or diuretic use (compared to ACEI use) and 28-day mortality among hospitalized Covid-19 patients narrowly missed statistical significance (1.47 [0.99-2.18]) but it was statistically significant when the analysis was restricted to patients hospitalized during the second SARS-CoV-2 wave (1.80 [1.15-2.83])., Conclusion: Our results suggest protective effects of inhibition of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system on Covid-19 hospitalization and mortality, particularly with ACEI, among patients with pharmaceutically treated hypertension. If confirmed by randomized controlled trials, this finding could have high clinical relevance for treating hypertension during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic., (© 2021 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Pharmacological Society.)

Artificial intelligence (AI) can predict the presence of molecular alterations directly from routine histopathology slides. However, training robust AI systems requires large datasets for which data collection faces practical, ethical and legal obstacles. These obstacles could be overcome with swarm learning (SL), in which partners jointly train AI models while avoiding data transfer and monopolistic data governance. Here, we demonstrate the successful use of SL in large, multicentric datasets of gigapixel histopathology images from over 5,000 patients. We show that AI models trained using SL can predict BRAF mutational status and microsatellite instability directly from hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained pathology slides of colorectal cancer. We trained AI models on three patient cohorts from Northern Ireland, Germany and the United States, and validated the prediction performance in two independent datasets from the United Kingdom. Our data show that SL-trained AI models outperform most locally trained models, and perform on par with models that are trained on the merged datasets. In addition, we show that SL-based AI models are data efficient. In the future, SL can be used to train distributed AI models for any histopathology image analysis task, eliminating the need for data transfer., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Many risk factors have emerged for novel 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It is relatively unknown how these factors collectively predict COVID-19 infection risk, as well as risk for a severe infection (i.e., hospitalization). Among aged adults (69.3 ± 8.6 years) in UK Biobank, COVID-19 data was downloaded for 4510 participants with 7539 test cases. We downloaded baseline data from 10 to 14 years ago, including demographics, biochemistry, body mass, and other factors, as well as antibody titers for 20 common to rare infectious diseases in a subset of 80 participants with 124 test cases. Permutation-based linear discriminant analysis was used to predict COVID-19 risk and hospitalization risk. Probability and threshold metrics included receiver operating characteristic curves to derive area under the curve (AUC), specificity, sensitivity, and quadratic mean. Model predictions using the full cohort were marginal. The "best-fit" model for predicting COVID-19 risk was found in the subset of participants with antibody titers, which achieved excellent discrimination (AUC 0.969, 95% CI 0.934-1.000). Factors included age, immune markers, lipids, and serology titers to common pathogens like human cytomegalovirus. The hospitalization "best-fit" model was more modest (AUC 0.803, 95% CI 0.663-0.943) and included only serology titers, again in the subset group. Accurate risk profiles can be created using standard self-report and biomedical data collected in public health and medical settings. It is also worthwhile to further investigate if prior host immunity predicts current host immunity to COVID-19., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Certain infectious agents are recognised causes of cancer and other chronic diseases. To understand the pathological mechanisms underlying such relationships, here we design a Multiplex Serology platform to measure quantitative antibody responses against 45 antigens from 20 infectious agents including human herpes, hepatitis, polyoma, papilloma, and retroviruses, as well as Chlamydia trachomatis, Helicobacter pylori and Toxoplasma gondii, then assayed a random subset of 9695 UK Biobank participants. We find seroprevalence estimates consistent with those expected from prior literature and confirm multiple associations of antibody responses with sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., lifetime sexual partners with C. trachomatis), HLA genetic variants (rs6927022 with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) EBNA1 antibodies) and disease outcomes (human papillomavirus-16 seropositivity with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and EBV responses with multiple sclerosis). Our accessible dataset is one of the largest incorporating diverse infectious agents in a prospective UK cohort offering opportunities to improve our understanding of host-pathogen-disease relationships with significant clinical and public health implications., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Epigenetic clocks are biomarkers of ageing derived from DNA methylation levels at a subset of CpG sites. The difference between age predicted by these clocks and chronological age, termed "epigenetic age acceleration", has been shown to predict age-related disease and mortality. We aimed to assess the prognostic value of epigenetic age acceleration and a DNA methylation-based mortality risk score with all-cause mortality in a prospective clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000. We investigated two markers of intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAAHorvath and IEAAHannum), one marker of extrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (EEAA), one optimised to predict physiological dysregulation (AgeAccelPheno), one optimised to predict lifespan (AgeAccelGrim) and a DNA methylation-based predictor of mortality (ZhangScore). Cox regression models were first used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of epigenetic age acceleration with all-cause mortality in people with oropharyngeal cancer (n = 408; 105 deaths). The added prognostic value of epigenetic markers compared to a clinical model including age, sex, TNM stage and HPV status was then evaluated., Results: IEAAHannum and AgeAccelGrim were associated with mortality risk after adjustment for clinical and lifestyle factors (HRs per standard deviation [SD] increase in age acceleration = 1.30 [95% CI 1.07, 1.57; p = 0.007] and 1.40 [95% CI 1.06, 1.83; p = 0.016], respectively). There was weak evidence that the addition of AgeAccelGrim to the clinical model improved 3-year mortality prediction (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.80 vs. 0.77; p value for difference = 0.069)., Conclusion: In the setting of a large, clinical cohort of individuals with head and neck cancer, our study demonstrates the potential of epigenetic markers of ageing to enhance survival prediction in people with oropharyngeal cancer, beyond established prognostic factors. Our findings have potential uses in both clinical and non-clinical contexts: to aid treatment planning and improve patient stratification., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variants influence the risk of late-onset human diseases, but the reasons for this are poorly understood. Undertaking a hypothesis-free analysis of 5,689 blood-derived biomarkers with mtDNA variants in 16,220 healthy donors, here we show that variants defining mtDNA haplogroups Uk and H4 modulate the level of circulating N-formylmethionine (fMet), which initiates mitochondrial protein translation. In human cytoplasmic hybrid (cybrid) lines, fMet modulated both mitochondrial and cytosolic proteins on multiple levels, through transcription, post-translational modification and proteolysis by an N-degron pathway, abolishing known differences between mtDNA haplogroups. In a further 11,966 individuals, fMet levels contributed to all-cause mortality and the disease risk of several common cardiovascular disorders. Together, these findings indicate that fMet plays a key role in common age-related disease through pleiotropic effects on cell proteostasis., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.)

Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m 2 /year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m 2 at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m 2 or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or LARP4B. Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function., (Copyright © 2020 International Society of Nephrology. All rights reserved.)

Background: Epidemiological studies of the relationship between gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconsistent. To address possible confounding and reverse causation, we examine the relationship between these potential risk factors and CRC using Mendelian randomisation (MR)., Methods: We used two-sample MR to examine the relationship between genetic liability to gallstone disease and circulating levels of bilirubin with CRC in 26,397 patients and 41,481 controls. We calculated the odds ratio per genetically predicted SD unit increase in log bilirubin levels (OR SD ) for CRC and tested for a non-zero causal effect of gallstones on CRC. Sensitivity analysis was applied to identify violations of estimator assumptions., Results: No association between either gallstone disease (P value = 0.60) or circulating levels of bilirubin (OR SD  = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96-1.03, P value = 0.90) with CRC was shown., Conclusions: Despite the large scale of this study, we found no evidence for a causal relationship between either circulating levels of bilirubin or gallstone disease with risk of developing CRC. While the magnitude of effect suggested by some observational studies can confidently be excluded, we cannot exclude the possibility of smaller effect sizes and non-linear relationships.

Background: Parity is associated with decreased risk of invasive ovarian cancer; however, the relationship between incomplete pregnancies and invasive ovarian cancer risk is unclear. This relationship was examined using 15 case-control studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). Histotype-specific associations, which have not been examined previously with large sample sizes, were also evaluated., Methods: A pooled analysis of 10 470 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 16 942 controls was conducted. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between incomplete pregnancies and invasive epithelial ovarian cancer were estimated using logistic regression. All models were conditioned on OCAC study, race and ethnicity, age, and education level and adjusted for number of complete pregnancies, oral contraceptive use, and history of breastfeeding. The same approach was used for histotype-specific analyses., Results: Ever having an incomplete pregnancy was associated with a 16% reduction in ovarian cancer risk (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.79 to 0.89). There was a trend of decreasing risk with increasing number of incomplete pregnancies (2-sided Ptrend < .001). An inverse association was observed for all major histotypes; it was strongest for clear cell ovarian cancer., Conclusions: Incomplete pregnancies are associated with a reduced risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer. Pregnancy, including incomplete pregnancy, was associated with a greater reduction in risk of clear cell ovarian cancer, but the result was broadly consistent across histotypes. Future work should focus on understanding the mechanisms underlying this reduced risk., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Antibodies against the HPV16 oncoprotein E6 are promising biomarkers for HPV16-driven oropharyngeal cancer (HPV16-OPC) due to their high sensitivity and specificity, and prospective manifestation. In previous studies, 0•7% of controls without HPV-associated malignancies were HPV16 E6 seropositive of which only a minority is expected to develop HPV16-driven cancer. We aimed to characterise HPV16 E6 antibodies in individuals without HPV-associated malignancies., Methods: We analysed serum antibodies against HPV16 E6, E7, L1 and HPV18 L1 in a random sample (n = 9,695) of the prospective UK Biobank cohort (UKB). Excluding individuals with potentially HPV-associated malignancies (n = 192), we assessed risk factors for seropositivity by logistic regression., Findings: In individuals without potentially HPV-associated malignancies (n = 9,503), the HPV16 E6 seroprevalence was 0•8%. Seropositivity against HPV16 E6 and all other HPV antigens was strongly associated with sexual behaviour. The seroprevalence of HPV16 E6, L1 and HPV18 L1 increased with the number of lifetime sex partners (p trend <0•005), and all HPV antibodies were associated with same-sex intercourse (OR E6 3•1, 95%CI 1•4-6•9; reference category: no same-sex intercourse). HPV16 E6 and L1 seropositivity were associated with young age (≤17 years) at sexual debut (OR E6 2•0, 95%CI 1•1-3•7) compared with individuals reporting sexual debut at age ≥20 years., Interpretation: This is the first study characterising HPV16 E6 antibodies in the general UK population. Their strong association with sexual behaviour, and overlapping risk factor profiles with other HPV antibodies support their relevance for HPV16-OPC disease prediction. However, additional risk stratification will be required to identify individuals at highest risk to develop HPV16-OPC., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Dr. Brenner, Dr. Mentzer, Dr. Hill, Dr. Almond, Dr. Allen and Dr. Pawlita have nothing to disclose. Dr. Waterboer reports personal fees from MSD (Merck) Sharp & Dohme, outside the submitted work., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Recently, deep learning has unlocked unprecedented success in various domains, especially using images, text, and speech. However, deep learning is only beneficial if the data have nonlinear relationships and if they are exploitable at available sample sizes. We systematically profiled the performance of deep, kernel, and linear models as a function of sample size on UKBiobank brain images against established machine learning references. On MNIST and Zalando Fashion, prediction accuracy consistently improves when escalating from linear models to shallow-nonlinear models, and further improves with deep-nonlinear models. In contrast, using structural or functional brain scans, simple linear models perform on par with more complex, highly parameterized models in age/sex prediction across increasing sample sizes. In sum, linear models keep improving as the sample size approaches ~10,000 subjects. Yet, nonlinearities for predicting common phenotypes from typical brain scans remain largely inaccessible to the examined kernel and deep learning methods.

Background: Few large studies describe initial disease trajectories and subsequent mortality in people with head and neck cancer. This is a necessary first step to identify the need for palliative care and associated services., Aim: To analyse data from the Head and Neck 5000 study to present mortality, place and mode of death within 12 months of diagnosis., Design: Prospective cohort study., Participants: In total, 5402 people with a new diagnosis of head and neck cancer were recruited from 76 cancer centres in the United Kingdom between April 2011 and December 2014., Results: Initially, 161/5402 (3%) and 5241/5402 (97%) of participants were treated with 'non-curative' and 'curative' intent, respectively. Within 12 months, 109/161 (68%) in the 'non-curative' group died compared with 482/5241 (9%) in the 'curative' group. Catastrophic bleed was the terminal event for 10.4% and 9.8% of people in 'non-curative' and 'curative' groups, respectively; terminal airway obstruction was recorded for 7.5% and 6.3% of people in the same corresponding groups. Similar proportions of people in both groups died in a hospice (22.9% 'non-curative'; 23.5% 'curative') and 45.7% of the 'curative' group died in hospital., Conclusion: In addition to those with incurable head and neck cancer, there is a small but significant 'curative' subgroup of people who may have palliative needs shortly following diagnosis. Given the high mortality, risk of acute catastrophic event and frequent hospital death, clarifying the level and timing of palliative care services engagement would help provide assurance as to whether palliative care needs are being met.

Background & Aims: Human studies examining associations between circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 (IGFBP3) and colorectal cancer risk have reported inconsistent results. We conducted complementary serologic and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to determine whether alterations in circulating levels of IGF1 or IGFBP3 are associated with colorectal cancer development., Methods: Serum levels of IGF1 were measured in blood samples collected from 397,380 participants from the UK Biobank, from 2006 through 2010. Incident cancer cases and cancer cases recorded first in death certificates were identified through linkage to national cancer and death registries. Complete follow-up was available through March 31, 2016. For the MR analyses, we identified genetic variants associated with circulating levels of IGF1 and IGFBP3. The association of these genetic variants with colorectal cancer was examined with 2-sample MR methods using genome-wide association study consortia data (52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 individuals without [controls]) RESULTS: After a median follow-up period of 7.1 years, 2665 cases of colorectal cancer were recorded. In a multivariable-adjusted model, circulating level of IGF1 associated with colorectal cancer risk (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation increment of IGF1, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.17). Similar associations were found by sex, follow-up time, and tumor subsite. In the MR analyses, a 1 standard deviation increment in IGF1 level, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio 1.08; 95% CI 1.03-1.12; P = 3.3 × 10 -4 ). Level of IGFBP3, predicted based on genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer risk (odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increment, 1.12; 95% CI 1.06-1.18; P = 4.2 × 10 -5 ). Colorectal cancer risk was associated with only 1 variant in the IGFBP3 gene region (rs11977526), which also associated with anthropometric traits and circulating level of IGF2., Conclusions: In an analysis of blood samples from almost 400,000 participants in the UK Biobank, we found an association between circulating level of IGF1 and colorectal cancer. Using genetic data from 52,865 cases with colorectal cancer and 46,287 controls, a higher level of IGF1, determined by genetic factors, was associated with colorectal cancer. Further studies are needed to determine how this signaling pathway might contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis., (Copyright © 2020 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Effectors from the immune system can modulate the course and possibly the early development of gliomas. We, therefore, hypothesized that autoimmune diseases associated with increased immune-surveillance may also modulate the risk of human glioma. To test this hypothesis, we used data from the well-validated Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD from the UK to analyze the association of immune-related disorders or use of immunosuppressive drugs and the risk of glioma. We identified 3112 incident glioma cases diagnosed between 1995 and 2017. We randomly selected up to 10 controls, matching them to glioma cases on age, sex, index date, general practice, and number of years of active history in the database prior to the index date. We performed conditional logistic regression analyses to estimate Odds Ratios (ORs) of glioma among those exposed to allergies, autoimmune diseases, and immunosuppressive drugs. Overall, we found no materially altered association between a history of any autoimmune disease (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.86-1.11), allergy (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.89-1.05), or use of immunosuppressive drugs and the risk of glioma. However, subgroup analyses among younger patients found a statistically significant increased risk of glioma in patients with a history of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.31-5.12). There was also an inverse association between asthma and risk of glioma in patients with longer survival (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58-0.91) and between long-term duration diabetes and risk of glioma (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.53-0.96)., (© 2019 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objectives: This paper aims to provide contemporary epidemiological data on squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the nasal cavity, which represents a rare type of head and neck cancer., Design, Setting & Participants: A descriptive analysis of people with nasal cavity SCC treated with curative intent from the Head and Neck 5000 study; a multicentre clinical cohort study of people from the UK with head and neck cancer. People with tumours of the nasopharynx, paranasal sinuses and other sub-sites of the head and neck were excluded., Main Outcome Measures: Demographic data and treatment details are presented for all participants. The main outcomes were overall survival and survival according to categories of characteristics (eg, smoker vs non-smoker); these were explored using Kaplan-Meier plots., Results: Thirty people with nasal cavity SCC were included in the study, of which most were male (67%) and current or ex-smokers (70%). The majority (70%) presented with early-stage (T1/2, N0) tumours. Cervical lymph node metastases at presentation were rare, occurring in only one person. Nine people died during the follow-up period (30%). Worse survival outcomes were seen in people with moderate or severe co-morbidities., Conclusions: This paper provides epidemiological data on nasal cavity SCC in the UK. Patterns of disease and survival outcomes are described, identifying high-risk groups. Further studies should explore whether primary treatment modality alters survival., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Purpose: To investigate the associations of diuretics overall, non-potassium-sparing diuretics in specific, and laxative use with cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in subjects with antihypertensive treatment., Methods: Analyses included 4253 participants, aged 50 to 75 years, from the German ESTHER cohort and 105,359 participants, aged 50 to 69 years, from the UK Biobank. Cox proportional hazard regression models were applied in both studies, and then results were pooled using random-effects model meta-analyses., Results: During 14 and 7 years of follow-up, 476 and 1616 CVM cases were observed in the ESTHER study and the UK Biobank, respectively. Compared to non-users, a 1.6-fold (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 1.57 [1.29; 1.90]), a 1.4-fold (1.39 [1.26; 1.53]), and no statistically significantly increased (1.13 [0.94; 1.36]) CVM were observed in users of diuretics overall, non-potassium-sparing diuretics in specific, and laxatives, respectively. Concurrent use of non-potassium-sparing diuretics and laxatives was associated with a 2-fold increased CVM (2.05 [1.55; 2.71]) when compared to users of neither diuretics nor laxatives. However, a test for interaction slightly missed statistical significance (p = 0.075)., Conclusions: These consistent results from two large cohort studies imply that more research is needed on the safety of diuretics in routine care. Although not statistically significant in this study, a drug-drug interaction of non-potassium-sparing diuretics and laxatives appears plausible. Physicians and pharmacists are advised to clarify additional laxative use in users of non-potassium-sparing diuretics and inform about the risk of concurrent use. Moreover, closer potassium monitoring intervals (e.g., every 3 months) might be indicated in concurrent users to prevent fatal cardiovascular events.

Background: The association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) survival is unclear., Methods: Cox proportional hazard models measured the association between fruit, vegetable, and deep-fried food intake and HNC overall survival adjusting for clinical, social and lifestyle variables including smoking, alcohol, and HPV status., Results: Fruit and vegetable intake and improved survival were associated in minimally adjusted analyses. Following adjustment for smoking and alcohol consumption (fully adjusted analyses), the association with survival disappeared for fruit (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.67, 1.23; P for trend = .55) and attenuated for vegetables (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.61, 1.03; P for trend = .04). We observed no association between survival and deep-fried food intake in minimally adjusted or fully adjusted analyses (HR 0.88 95% CI 0.72, 1.07; P for trend = .13)., Conclusions: Vegetable intake and HNC survival are modestly associated. There is some confounding by tobacco and alcohol consumption., (© 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Background: The prevalence of, and risk factors for, herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1) infection and reactivation in older individuals are poorly understood., Methods: This is a prospective population-based study among community-dwelling individuals aged 40-79 years, followed from 1993, formed as a random subsample of the UK-based EPIC-Norfolk cohort. HSV-1 seropositivity was derived from immunoglobulin G measurements and frequent oro-labial HSV reactivation was self-reported. We carried out two cross-sectional studies using logistic regression to investigate childhood social and environmental conditions as risk factors for HSV-1 seropositivity and comorbidities as risk factors for apparent HSV oro-labial reactivation., Results: Of 9,929 participants, 6310 (63.6%) were HSV-1 IgG positive, and 870 (of 4,934 seropositive participants with reactivation data) experienced frequent oro-labial reactivation. Being born outside the UK/Ireland, contemporaneous urban living and having ≥4 siblings were risk factors for HSV-1 seropositivity. Ever diagnosed with kidney disease, but no other comorbidities, was associated with an increased risk of frequent HSV reactivation (adjOR 1.87, 95%CI: 1.02-3.40)., Discussion: Apparent HSV-1 seropositivity and clinical reactivation are common within an ageing UK population. HSV-1 seropositivity is socially patterned while risk factors for oro-labial HSV reactivation are less clear. Further large studies of risk factors are needed to inform HSV-1 control strategies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: People with head and neck cancer have higher comorbidity levels but it remains unclear if pretreatment comorbidity is an independent prognosticator in head and neck cancer., Methods: Survival analyses were performed using data from participants in a UK multicentre cohort study with cancers of the oral cavity (n = 668), oropharynx (n = 1074), and larynx (n = 530). Survival analyses were incrementally adjusted for age, sex, marital status, income, education, stage, alcohol, and smoking., Results: After adjusting for demographic, clinical, and behavioral confounders, higher baseline comorbidity was associated with reduced overall survival (mild comorbidity HR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1, 1.7; moderate comorbidity HR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.3, 2.2; severe comorbidity HR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.9, 4.; P-trend<.001)., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that comorbidity is an independent prognosticator for overall survival in head and neck cancer. Comorbid illnesses should be considered in the assessment and treatment planning of people with head and neck cancer., (© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Objective: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts., Design: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability)., Results: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC., Conclusion: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained., Competing Interests: Competing interests: TS received a studentship from the Medical Research Council (MR/M501712/1). DCM is supported by a Cancer Research UK Population Research Fellowship (C57955/A24390). KJA received a research grant from the German Research Foundation (DFG) (AL 1784/3-1), KEB received research grants from Cancer Research UK (C570/A16491) and the Medical Research Council (MR/M012190/1); no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; KGMM is director of Research of a large (around 500 employees) research and teaching institute within his University Medical Center. They perform both investigator-driven and industry-driven research projects with a number of pharmaceutical and diagnostic companies. In addition, some of the members of staff receive unrestricted grants for research projects from a number of companies. It is their explicit policy to work with several companies and not to focus on one or two industrial partners. He receives no personal payment from any industrial partner., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2019. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Importance: It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE)., Objective: To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism., Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018., Exposures: A panel of several established cardiovascular risk factors., Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CHD], 25 131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI)., Results: Of the 731 728 participants from the ERFC, 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421 537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers., Conclusions and Relevance: Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a main risk factor for development of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although HBV vaccination and antiviral therapy lead to substantial risk reduction for HCC development, it is evident that both can reduce, but not completely eliminate the risk. High serum levels of HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) were shown to predict disease progression of chronic HBV infection in patients harboring low viral load, and in line with this, HBV surface proteins were shown to exert oncogenic functions. As HBsAg seroclearance is infrequently achieved in patients who have undergone antiviral therapy, it is necessary to gain further insights into molecular mechanisms of HBsAg seroclearance failure after antiviral therapy and HCC development mediated by HBV surface proteins. A recent study published in this journal has shown that the HBsAg large surface protein (LHBs) contributes to HCC development by inducing cytokinesis failure and consequent aneuploidy via induction of DNA damage and polo-like kinase 1 (PLK1)-mediated G2/M checkpoint failure in hepatocytes. Inhibition of PLK1 by a PLK1-specific small molecule inhibitor was shown to restore G2/M checkpoint in vitro and to reduce tumor burden in vivo. The initial LHBs-induced hepatocyte aneuploidy may give rise to further aneuploidy and thereby lead to self-propagating cycles of chromosomal instability driving intra-tumor heterogeneity and clonal cancer evolution. Thus, LHBs-induced cytokinesis failure may be a priming event for HCC development. In conclusion, the study not only provides further mechanistic insights into the oncogenic role of LHBs, but also identifies a potential target to interfere with the vicious circle of LHBs-induced aneuploidy, which may be especially useful in patients showing failure of HBsAg seroclearance after antiviral therapy. Copyright © 2018 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (Copyright © 2018 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: Whether associations between circulating metabolites and prostate cancer are causal is unknown. We report on the largest study of metabolites and prostate cancer (2,291 cases and 2,661 controls) and appraise causality for a subset of the prostate cancer-metabolite associations using two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR)., Methods: The case-control portion of the study was conducted in nine UK centers with men ages 50-69 years who underwent prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer within the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial. Two data sources were used to appraise causality: a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of metabolites in 24,925 participants and a GWAS of prostate cancer in 44,825 cases and 27,904 controls within the Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL) consortium., Results: Thirty-five metabolites were strongly associated with prostate cancer ( P < 0.0014, multiple-testing threshold). These fell into four classes: (i) lipids and lipoprotein subclass characteristics (total cholesterol and ratios, cholesterol esters and ratios, free cholesterol and ratios, phospholipids and ratios, and triglyceride ratios); (ii) fatty acids and ratios; (iii) amino acids; (iv) and fluid balance. Fourteen top metabolites were proxied by genetic variables, but MR indicated these were not causal., Conclusions: We identified 35 circulating metabolites associated with prostate cancer presence, but found no evidence of causality for those 14 testable with MR. Thus, the 14 MR-tested metabolites are unlikely to be mechanistically important in prostate cancer risk., Impact: The metabolome provides a promising set of biomarkers that may aid prostate cancer classification., (©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Background: Within (European) healthcare systems, the predominant goal for pharmaceutical expenditure is cost containment. This is due to a general belief among healthcare policy makers that pharmaceutical expenditure-driven by high prices-will be unsustainable unless further reforms are enacted., Objective: The aim of this paper is to provide more realistic expectations of pharmaceutical expenditure for all key stakeholder groups by estimating pharmaceutical expenditure at 'net' prices. We also aim to estimate any gaps developing between list and net pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK)., Methods: We adjusted an established forecast of pharmaceutical expenditure for the EU5 countries, from 2017 to 2021, by reflecting discounts and rebates not previously considered, i.e. we moved from 'list' to 'net' prices, as far as data were available., Results: We found an increasing divergence between expenditure measured at list and net prices. When the forecasts for the five countries were aggregated, the EU5 (unweighted) average historical growth (2010-2016) rate fell from 3.4% compound annual growth rate at list to 2.5% at net. For the forecast, the net growth rate was estimated at 1.5 versus 2.9% at list., Conclusions: Our results suggest that future growth in pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe is likely to be (1) lower than previously understood from forecasts based on list prices and (2) below predicted healthcare expenditure growth in Europe and in line with long-term economic growth rates. For policy makers concerned about the sustainability of pharmaceutical expenditure, this study may provide some comfort, in that the perceived problem is not as large as expected.

Background: The prevalence of sleep disturbance is high and increasing. The study investigated whether active, former and passive smoking were associated with sleep disturbance., Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from the UK Biobank: a cohort study of 502 655 participants, of whom 498 208 provided self-reported data on smoking and sleep characteristics. Multivariable multinomial and logistic regression models were used to examine the associations between smoking and sleep disturbance., Results: Long-sleep duration (>9 h) was more common among current smokers [odds ratio (OR): 1.47; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-1.85; probability value (P) = 0.001] than never smokers, especially heavy (>20/day) smokers (OR: 2.85; 95% CI: 1.66-4.89; P < 0.001). Former heavy (>20/day) smokers were also more likely to report short (<6 h) sleep duration (OR: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.25-1.60; P < 0.001), long-sleep duration (OR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.47-2.71; P < 0.001) and sleeplessness (OR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.38-1.57; P < 0.001) than never smokers. Among never smokers, those who lived with more than one smoker had higher odds of long-sleep duration than those not cohabitating with a smoker (OR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.26-5.82; P = 0.011)., Conclusions: Active and passive exposure to high levels of tobacco smoke are associated with sleep disturbance. Existing global tobacco control interventions need to be enforced.

Pancreatic cancer has one of the worst mortality rates of all cancers. Little is known about its etiology, particularly regarding inherited risk. The PanScan project, a genome-wide association study, identified several common polymorphisms affecting pancreatic cancer susceptibility. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ABO, sonic hedgehog (SHH), telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT), nuclear receptor subfamily 5, group A, member 2 (NR5A2) were found to be associated with pancreatic cancer risk. Moreover the scan identified loci on chromosomes 13q22.1 and 15q14, to which no known genes or other functional elements are mapped. We sought to replicate these observations in two additional, independent populations (from Germany and the UK), and also evaluate the possible impact of these SNPs on patient survival. We genotyped 15 SNPs in 690 cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and in 1277 healthy controls. We replicated several associations between SNPs and PDAC risk. Furthermore we found that SNP rs8028529 was weakly associated with a better overall survival (OS) in both populations. We have also found that NR5A2 rs12029406&#95;T allele was associated with a shorter survival in the German population. In conclusion, we found that rs8028529 could be, if these results are replicated, a promising marker for both risk and prognosis for this lethal disease.

The gene coding for the human homologue of the Drosophila segment polarity gene patched (PTCH1) is mutated in several common human tumors. In mice, haplodeficiency at the Ptch1 locus results in severe histologic defects in mammary ductal structure. We found no mutations within the coding region of PTCH1 in 17 human primary breast carcinomas. However, the biallelic Pro1315Leu (C3944T) polymorphism of PTCH1 was significantly associated with breast cancer in 41 Bavarian patients compared to 85 healthy controls. We investigated whether this variant influences susceptibility for breast cancer in 611 breast cancer patients diagnosed by age 50 years and 1,057 controls matched by age and study region in Germany and in 1,093 breast cancer patients from the United Kingdom. Allele and genotype frequencies were not different between cases and controls. However, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed an effect modification of oral contraceptive use (OC) on breast cancer risk by Leu-carrier status. Compared to women who have Pro/Pro and never used OC, Pro/Pro OC users had an increased odds ratio for breast cancer of 1.7. The odds ratio was also 1.7 for Leu-carriers who never used OC, but this was attenuated among Leu-carriers who ever used OC by 20%. The gene-environmental interaction was confirmed in case-only analysis of the German and British studies, yielding an interaction odds ratio of 0.7 for premenopausal women (p = 0.06). Longer duration of pill use was associated with a significantly greater risk reduction (p for trend = 0.015). Our novel observation of a differential effect of OC use on breast cancer risk by PTCH1 1315Leu-carrier status suggests the interesting possibility of the Sonic hedgehog/Patched (SHH/PTCH1) signaling pathway being involved in hormone-induced development of breast carcinoma., (Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.)