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Across society there is pressure to assess and reduce carbon emissions to meet the obligations of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact. Within the science community, there is increasing awareness of the carbon footprint of research activities, but to date there is no consideration of emissions associated with biodiversity monitoring.Biodiversity monitoring, often delivered through citizen science schemes, is key to assessing environmental change impacts and mitigation. However, attributes of rigorously designed schemes such as randomisation and high recording effort can require volunteers to undertake regular travel, raising two important questions: (a) is biodiversity monitoring reliant on volunteers with private vehicles?; and (b) what is the carbon footprint of a typical monitoring scheme?This study focussed on travel associated with participation in the UK Breeding Bird Survey. The BBS involves twice‐annual surveys of a stratified random sample of 1‐km squares across the United Kingdom, providing population trends for c. 120 terrestrial bird species with data used widely in policy and research. Using coverage information from 2019, we calculated road distances from volunteers' home addresses to their squares and sought information on travel methods using an online questionnaire (54% response rate).In 2019, 2765 volunteers made 7520 visits to 3914 1‐km squares, travelling over 286,000 km in the process. Travel required to visit individual squares was highly skewed and differed geographically and according to mode of travel. Eighty‐eight per cent of squares were accessed by private car, with conventionally fuelled vehicles accounting for 95% of these. Active travel accounted for 10% of visits and public transport only 1.4%. We estimate the total emissions produced to achieve BBS coverage in 2019 to be at least 46.8 tonnes CO2e.These results indicate a heavy reliance on access to private vehicles, creating a barrier to future participation, especially if pathways to decarbonisation involve reduced car ownership. Furthermore, they indicate the scale of carbon emissions likely to be produced by the monitoring sector. We discuss possible pathways to decarbonise monitoring schemes but stress that we do not wish to criticise the travel decisions of individual volunteers: the onus on decarbonisation lies firmly with the organisers of monitoring schemes. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Organisations acting to conserve and protect species across large spatial scales prioritise to optimise use of resources. Spatial conservation prioritization tools typically focus on identifying areas containing species groups of interest, with few tools used to identify the best areas for single-species conservation, in particular, to conserve currently widespread but declining species. Objective: A single-species prioritization framework, based on temporal and spatial patterns of occupancy and abundance, was developed to spatially prioritize conservation action for widespread species by identifying smaller areas to work within to achieve predefined conservation objectives. Methods: We demonstrate our approach for 29 widespread bird species in the UK, using breeding bird atlas data from two periods to define distribution, relative abundance and change in relative abundance. We selected occupied 10-km squares with abundance trends that matched species conservation objectives relating to maintaining or increasing population size or range, and then identified spatial clusters of squares for each objective using a Getis-Ord-Gi* or near neighbour analysis. Results: For each species, the framework identified clusters of 20-km squares that enabled us to identify small areas in which species recovery action could be prioritized. Conclusions: Our approach identified a proportion of species' ranges to prioritize for species recovery. This approach is a relatively quick process that can be used to inform single-species conservation for any taxa if sufficiently fine-scale occupancy and abundance information is available for two or more time periods. This is a relatively simple first step for planning single-species focussed conservation to help optimise resource use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Housing a growing human population is a global issue and designing environmentally friendly developments requires identifying the species likely to be negatively impacted and finding mitigation solutions. Existing studies that consider fragmentation of natural habitats have limited application in countries such as Britain where a prime target for development is agricultural land where decades of intensive management have already diminished biodiversity. Here I used citizen science data on the abundance of 146 breeding and wintering birds to develop models linking abundance to human population density and habitat features. I used these as a proxy for the urbanisation process, finding that impacts of urbanisation were species-specific and context dependent. Low-density developments benefited a high proportion of birds, with wetland birds benefitting most and farmland birds least, but as human densities increased further, up to 75% of species were negatively impacted. Almost half of species currently occurring at 14 flagship residential development sites were predicted to decline based on projected human population density increases, with a third predicted to increase. Presence of wetlands, canopy cover and patches of trees all benefited certain species but efforts to identify more detailed habitat associations were hampered by collinearity among variables. I conclude that even in heavily degraded agricultural landscapes, a high proportion of species will be negatively impacted by residential development and that some will require spared land to persist in the wider landscape. As no single habitat benefited the entire bird community, urban planners wishing to design bird-friendly developments will need to make difficult decisions over which aspects of the bird community to prioritise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivation: We undertook large citizen science surveys of bird distributions (atlases) in Britain and Ireland, aimed at quantifying breeding bird distributions on a 20‐year cycle and wintering bird distributions on a c. 30‐year cycle. We use these to generate spatially referenced information on apparent changes in bird distributions over c. 40 years. Main type of variable contained: Detection of breeding and wintering bird species in grid squares during five periods, and changes in detection between periods. The combined distribution dataset contains 1,410,938 records detailing detections of 465 bird species in 3,880 grid cells in different periods. The combined distribution change dataset contains 1,297,791 records describing stability, apparent colonization or apparent extinction of individual species in grid squares between pairs of atlases spanning up to c. 40 years. Spatial location and grain: Grid squares (10 km × 10 km) containing land throughout Britain, Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. The majority of data are at 10‐km resolution, but data for rare species are summarized at 20‐ or 50‐km resolution to protect sensitive locations. Time period: The data represent summarized detection information derived from fieldwork during five periods: the breeding seasons 1968–1972, 1988–1991 and 2008–2011, and the winters 1981/1982–1983/1984 and 2007/2008–2010/2011. Major taxa studied and level of measurement: Birds; their distribution derived from citizen science surveys. Software format: Data are supplied as comma‐separated text files. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of species' distributions in future climates can aid adaptive conservation strategies. Although presence-absence or presence-only data have been extensively used for this purpose, modelling changes in spatial patterns of abundance provides a more sensitive tool for estimating species' vulnerabilities to climate impacts. We used abundance data from citizen science bird surveys in the UK and France to predict spatial patterns of future climatic suitability throughout Great Britain for 124 breeding bird species. We project that climatic suitability of Great Britain will increase for 44% of species and decline for 9% of species by 2080. Of the latter group, most are already red-listed for their severe long-term population declines. If our suitability projections translate into population changes, by 2080, conservation listing status will worsen for 10 species and improve for 28 species. Projected changes in climatic suitability translate into net gains of species abundance in northern and western areas and high turnover in community composition throughout Britain, particularly under medium- and high-emission scenarios. In conclusion, community-wide projections of changes in climatic suitability based on abundance indicate that bird assemblages throughout Great Britain will be impacted by climate change and that species already of concern are likely to be impacted hardest. Of the species projected to benefit, the ability of currently red-listed species to respond positively to climate without other interventions is unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The timing of migration is one of the key life-history parameters of migratory birds. It is expected to be under strong selection, to be sensitive to changing environmental conditions and to have implications for population dynamics. However, most phenological studies do not describe arrival and departure phenologies for a species in a way that is robust to potential biases, or that can be clearly related to breeding populations. This hampers our ability to understand more fully how climate change may affect species' migratory strategies, their life histories and ultimately their population dynamics. Using generalized additive models ( GAMs) and extensive large-scale data collected in the UK over a 40-year period, we present standardized measures of migration phenology for common migratory birds, and examine how the phenology of bird migration has changed in the UK since the 1960s. Arrival dates for 11 of 14 common migrants became significantly earlier, with six species advancing their arrival by more than 10 days. These comprised two species, Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla and Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, which winter closest to Britain in southern Europe and the arid northern zone of Africa, Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus, which winters in the arid zone, and three hirundines (Sand Martin Riparia riparia, House Martin Delichon urbicum and Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica), which winter in different parts of Africa. Concurrently, departure dates became significantly later for four of the 14 species and included species that winter in southern Europe (Blackcap and Chiffchaff) and in humid zones of Africa (Garden Warbler Sylvia borin and Whinchat Saxicola rubetra). Common Swift Apus apus was the exception in departing significantly earlier. The net result of earlier arrival and later departure for most species was that length of stay has become significantly longer for nine of the 14 species. Species that have advanced their timing of arrival showed the most positive trends in abundance, in accordance with previous studies. Related in part to earlier arrival and the relationship above, we also show that species extending their stay in Great Britain have shown the most positive trends. Further applications of our modelling approach will provide opportunities for more robust tests of relationships between phenological change and population dynamics than have been possible previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Extensive acoustic bat data is used to produce a novel tool to aid urban planning. • Urban risk maps highlight areas with high bat activity and urban sensitive species. • Opportunity maps highlight low activity, where habitat creation would benefit bats. • The effect of species identification error on the maps and conclusions is quantified. Urban expansion is a severe threat to biodiversity. In the UK, bats are protected meaning new developments need to be surveyed, potential impacts assessed, and appropriate mitigation action taken. However, efforts to minimise effects of urbanisation on bats are hampered by a lack of data for many species making it difficult to implement effective conservation measures. Here we explore whether citizen science data on bat activity via a passive acoustic network can be used to produce maps of high risk areas to bats from urbanisation and areas with the best opportunities for habitat mitigation. We combine the passive acoustic dataset with fine-scale habitat data and use models to quantify the effect of increasing urban areas or increasing suitable habitat (woodland, wetland, or grass and heathland). Passive acoustic detection can provide a high volume of data and large area of coverage, which is vital to the success of this modelling approach, but the data quality is dependent on accurate species classification. Therefore, we also assess the effect of identification uncertainty on the accuracy of the risk and opportunity maps. We found agreement between results accounting for species uncertainty and those that did not was high, although approximately 15% of high-risk areas would have been missed, and about 23% of habitat creation opportunities falsely prioritised. This modelling and mapping approach has great potential for use in the planning process to reduce impacts on the most important habitat features in the landscape and enable targeted habitat creation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade ( N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade ( N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988-1991 and 2008-2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north-west and north-east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer-effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north-north-westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species-specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time - due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species - but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records - as assessed using widespread metrics - need not indicate a model's ability to predict the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article illustrates the land use method that leads to the success of conservation prioritization in Great Britain. It reveals that the method aims to develop a conservation priority ranking that balances between needs of biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, agricultural value, and urban development potential. It notes that the method also aims to balance the spatial allocation of alternative land uses to lessen the conflicts between biodiversity and urban areas.

1. Reductions in resource availability, associated with land-use change and agricultural intensification in the UK and Europe, have been linked with the widespread decline of many farmland bird species over recent decades. However, the underlying ecological processes which link resource availability and population trends are poorly understood. 2. We construct a spatial depletion model to investigate the relationship between the population persistence of granivorous birds within the agricultural landscape and the temporal dynamics of stubble field availability, an important source of winter food for many of those species. 3. The model is capable of accurately predicting the distribution of a given number of finches and buntings amongst patches of different stubble types in an agricultural landscape over the course of a winter and assessing the relative value of different landscapes in terms of resource availability. 4. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model is relatively robust to estimates of energetic requirements, search efficiency and handling time but that daily seed survival estimates have a strong influence on model fit. Understanding resource dynamics in agricultural landscapes is highlighted as a key area for further research. 5. There was a positive relationship between the predicted number of bird days supported by a landscape over-winter and the breeding population trend for yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella, a species for which survival has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics, but not for linnet Carduelis cannabina, a species for which productivity has been identified as the primary driver of population dynamics. 6. Synthesis and applications. We believe this model can be used to guide the effective delivery of over-winter food resources under agri-environment schemes and to assess the impacts on granivorous birds of changing resource availability associated with novel changes in land use. This could be very important in the future as farming adapts to an increasingly dynamic trading environment, in which demands for increased agricultural production must be reconciled with objectives for environmental protection, including biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Ecosystems support biodiversity and also provide goods and services that are beneficial to humans. The extent to which the locations that are most valuable for ecosystem services coincide with those that support the most biodiversity is of critical importance when designing conservation and land management strategies. There are, however, few studies on which to base any kind of conclusion about possible spatial patterns of association between ecosystem services and biodiversity. Moreover, little is known about the sensitivity of the conclusions to the quality of the data available, or to the choice and size of the region used for analysis. 2. Here, we first present national-scale estimates of the spatial covariance in areas important for ecosystem services and biodiversity (richness of species of conservation concern), using Britain as a case study. We then explore how these associations are sensitive to the spatial resolution of the available data, the spatial extent of our study region and to regional variation across the study area. 3. Our analyses reveal a mixture of negative and positive associations. In particular, the regionalization analysis shows that one can arrive at diametrically opposing conclusions about relationships between ecosystem services and biodiversity by studying the same question within different areas, even within a moderately small island. 4. Synthesis and applications. In a policy context, the location-specific nature of relationships between ecosystem services and biodiversity underscores the importance of multi-scale environmental decision-making, so as to reflect both local conditions and broader-scale priorities. The results also suggest that efforts to establish general patterns of congruence in ecosystem services and biodiversity may offer a less constructive way forward than do more regional approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. A principal goal of protected-area networks is to maintain viable populations of as many species as possible, particularly those that are vulnerable to environmental change outside reserves. Ideally, one wants to be able to protect all biodiversity when selecting priority areas for conservation. 2. Using the area-prioritization algorithm ZONATION, we identified the locations where UK Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP) species of mammals, birds, herptiles, butterflies and plants occur in concentrated populations with high connectivity. Both these features are likely to be correlated with population persistence. The analyses were successful in maintaining a high proportion of the connectivity of narrow-range species, and large total amounts of the connectivity of wider-range species over 10% of the land surface of Great Britain. 3. Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP – high priority) species of one taxonomic group were not particularly good surrogates (indicators) for BAP species of other taxonomic groups. Hence, maintaining population concentrations of one taxonomic group did not guarantee doing likewise for other taxa. 4. Species with narrow geographic ranges were most effective at predicting conservation success for other species, probably because they represent the range of environmental conditions required by other species. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study identifies landscape-scale priority areas for conservation of priority species from several taxonomic groups, using the Zonation software. ‘Indicator groups’ were only partially successful as predictors of priority areas for other taxonomic groups, and therefore, the identification of priority areas for biodiversity conservation should include information from all taxonomic groups available. Larger areas should be protected to account for species not included in the analyses. Conservation solutions based on data for many different species, and particularly those species with narrowly defined ranges, appear to be most effective at protecting other rare taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eurasian Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria and Northern Lapwings Vanellus vanellus winter in large numbers on Britain's farmland. Previous studies in mixed farming areas showed pronounced preferences for permanent pasture, but increasing numbers of plovers winter in eastern Britain where arable farmland dominates. We show that an area of intensive arable farmland supported significant numbers of both species from October to February in the absence of large areas of pasture. Habitat use varied seasonally as the habitats present changed. Throughout winter, use of cereal crops matched their availability: plovers selected harrow in early winter, sugar beet stubbles in midwinter and other crops in late winter. Pastures were rarely used at any time of the year. Flocks occupied only a fraction of the available fields, concentrating most in large fields with open boundaries and where manure had been applied. Daytime feeding was more likely during cold days after nights with a new moon, short duration of moonlight or low-intensity moonlight. These results show that plovers are currently able to utilize intensive arable farmland but future changes in management, such as cessation of manure applications and reductions in sugar beet cropping, could have detrimental effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LapwingVanellus vanellusis known to be declining throughout much of its UK breeding range. The ecological requirements of the species are well known and a variety of mechanisms exist which can be implemented to help recovery. Arable options within agri-environment schemes can be used to provide breeding habitat throughout the species’ UK range, and targeted recovery projects have been shown to have the potential to deliver increases in breeding pairs at the local level. The farming community need to be made aware of the requirements of Lapwing if agriculture and conservation needs are to be integrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the publication of the deliberations of the Avian Population Estimates Panel in 1997 (APEP1) there have been three other estimates of the population sizes of breeding and wintering species of bird in Great Britain. Here, we have used the results of the last two of these (APEP3 and APEP4), with data from Bird Atlas 2007-11 and Breeding Bird Survey population trends to calculate estimates of the population sizes of 85 species that breed in Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a comprehensive and objective picture of bird distributions relative to habitats across Britain. Bird species presence/absence data from an extensive field survey and habitat data from the remotely sensed UK Land Cover Map 2000 were analysed in 36,920 tetrads (2km×2km) across Britain (a 65% sample of Britain''s c. 240000km2). Cluster analysis linked birds to generalised landscapes based on distinctive habitat assemblages. Maps of the clusters showed strong regional patterns associated with the habitat assemblages. Cluster centroid coordinates for each bird species and each habitat were combined across clusters to derive individualised bird–habitat preference indices and examine the importance of individual habitats for each bird species. Even rare species and scarce habitats showed successful linkages. Results were assessed against published accounts of bird–habitat relations. Objective corroboration strongly supported the associations. Relatively scarce coastal and wetland habitats proved particularly important for many birds. However, extensive arable farmland and woodland habitats were also favoured by many species, despite reported declines in bird numbers in these habitats. The fact that habitat-specialists do not or cannot move habitat is perhaps a reason for declining numbers where habitats have become unsuitable. This study showed that there are unifying principles determining bird–habitat relations which apply and can be quantified at the national scale, and which corroborate and complement the cumulative knowledge of many and varied surveys and ecological studies. This ‘generality’ suggests that we may be able, reliably and objectively, to integrate and scale up such disparate studies to the national scale, using this generalised framework. It also suggests the potential for a landscape ecology approach to bird–habitat analyses. Such developments will be important steps in building models to develop and test the sustainable management of landscapes for birds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An increasing number of studies are taking the important first step in global efforts to conserve key ecosystem services by mapping their spatial distributions. However, a lack of primary data for most services in most places has largely forced such mapping exercises to be based on proxies. The common way of producing these proxies is through benefits transfer-based mapping, in which estimates of the values of services are obtained from a small region for particular land cover types, and then extrapolated to a larger area for these same types. However, the errors that may result from such extrapolations are poorly understood. Here, we separate the generalization errors associated with benefits transfer mapping into three constituent components – uniformity, sampling, and regionalization error – and evaluate their effects using primary data for four ecosystem services in England. Variation in ecosystem services within a particular land cover type (uniformity error) alone led to a poor fit to primary data for most services; sampling effects (sampling error) and extrapolating from a small region to a larger area (regionalization error) led to substantial, but highly variable, additional reductions in the fit to primary data. We also show that combining multiple ecosystem services into a single layer is likely to be even more problematic as it contains the errors in each of the constituent layers. These errors are sufficiently large to undermine decisions that might be based on such extrapolated maps. Greatly improved mapping of the actual distributions of ecosystem services is therefore needed to achieve the goal of conserving these vital assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epidemiological risk equation, to describe the relative, spatial risk of disease incursion into poultry flocks via wild birds. We then assessed the risk for AI incursion into British flocks. The risk map suggests that the majority of AI incursion risk is highly clustered within certain areas of Britain, including in the east, the south west and the coastal north-west of England. The clustering of high risk areas concentrates total risk in a relatively small land area; the top 33% of cells contribute over 80% of total incursion risk. This suggests that targeted risk-based sampling in a relatively small geographical area could be a much more effective and cost-efficient approach than representative sampling. The generic nature of the risk map method, allows rapid updating and application to other diseases transmissible between wild birds and poultry.