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Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We previously reported evidence of West Nile virus (WNV) circulation in UK birds, probably introduced by migratory birds from overseas. We now demonstrate WNV-specific seroconversion in sentinel chickens raised on an English farm. Maternal neutralizing antibodies to WNV in hatchlings declined within three weeks. During the following months, healthy chickens developed WNV neutralizing antibodies that were confirmed by immunoblotting and indirect immunofluorescence tests using WNV antigens. The proportion of seropositive chickens was higher for WNV than for Usutu virus or Sindbis virus. Attempts to isolate infectious virus or to detect viral RNA in the sera, failed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results presented by Attfield, Demery and Duck (1981) in the European Economic Review, 18 p. 367-385 are replicated. The model is re-estimated to take account of the policy switch to floating exchange rates in 1972, with rather less than favourable results, a major problem being misspecification of the monetary growth equation.
Attfield, Demery and Duck (hereinafter ADD)(1981)present a three-equation New-Classical model of the UK, which they suggest is broadly consistent with the postwar evidence. They do however qualify their conclusion, drawing attention to the smallness of the sample size and to the unsatisfactory estimates of the price equation. Finally, they suggest that 'there is clearly scope for much more empirical work in this area' (op. cit. p. 382).
Bearing in mind the criteria of replicability, relevance to the current macropolicy debate and the authors' own comments it seems appropriate to examine whether ADD's conclusions are consistent with their sample data -- a task somewhat eased by their publication not only of the data but of a detailed description of sources.
In section II the authors' least squares results are reproduced and the problem of structural instability in the monetary growth equation is noted. In section III estimates of the model are presented for the period of fixed exchange rates 1949-1971. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author replicates three wage equations suggested by McCallum (1974a,b), by Henry, Sawyer and Smith (1976), and by Johnston (1972), using quarterly British data 1951 (I)--1977(IV). The latter pair of equations yields fair results when tested by the usual methods. However, the application of a test of post fitting period parameter stability leads to their rejection. (The first equation performs so badly by conventional criteria that the stronger test is not required.)
The results point to the need (a) for more replication and (b) for testing the power of models to predict outside the fitting period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sargan's (1964) wage equation is respecified within the feedback control framework to which it belongs and confronted with quarterly British data. The starting point for the work reported in this paper is the interesting and important puzzle that despite over twenty years of fitting wage equations to British post-war data, no great success can be claimed either in explanation or in prediction. Indeed Sargan in the original paper used the model to illustrate the use of autoregressive least squares and instrumental variable estimators. The implication is that the equation is misspecified in some undetected manner. The objective of the research reported herein was to attempt the removal of the specification error by a careful reconsideration of the theory, then to test the appropriateness of the suggested reformulation by econometric methods. Some writers e.g. Sargan (1964) and Johnston (1972) have attempted to break away from the conventional excess demand/expectation models and to take account of bargaining in a labour market characterized by bilateral monopoly. To a Keynesian this appears as a potentially more fruitful conception of the labour market, both for prediction and explanation.

Parkin et all (1976) present a set of results for the post-war Great Britain economy which (they claim) confirm inter alia the role of excess demand for labour in the determination of the rate of change of money wage rates. Their most interesting behavioural hypothesis is that money wage rates are so adjusted by transactors that the change in excess demand, given expectations of price and tax changes, eliminates (in whole or in part) excess demand during some previous period. The disequilibrium framework introduced by Fair and Jaffee (1972) permits the estimation of excess demand quantities, and the method has been applied to the postwar Great Britain labour market by Dawson (1979) in an attempt to identify the Phillips Curve. Independent evidence lends some support to Parkin et al.'s market clearing hypothesis. However, the support is rather weak, since the explanatory power is very low. As one might anticipate, the implied speed of adjustment is slow. Given that economics abounds with unresolved issues (many of them with non-trivial policy implications) rather more effort needs to be applied to model-building in order to obtain identification prior to estimation.