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Population-representative estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and antibody levels in specific geographic areas at different time points are needed to optimise policy responses. However, even population-wide surveys are potentially impacted by biases arising from differences in participation rates across key groups. Here, we used spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification models to UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative estimates of PCR positivity (6,496,052 tests) and antibody prevalence (1,941,333 tests) for different regions, ages and ethnicities (7-December-2020 to 4-May-2022). Not accounting for vaccination status through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR positivity, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the population (up to 21 percentage points), particularly in groups with low vaccine uptake in the general population. There was marked variation in the relative contribution of different areas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease surveys should take into account major drivers of outcomes of interest that may also influence participation, with vaccination being an important factor to consider. Estimates of infection rates from the UK COVID-19 Infection Survey may have been biased by the characteristics of people who chose to take part. Here, the authors show that the survey population had unusually high vaccination rates and adjust infection estimates taking this into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given high SARS-CoV-2 incidence, coupled with slow and inequitable vaccine roll-out in many settings, there is a need for evidence to underpin optimum vaccine deployment, aiming to maximise global population immunity. We evaluate whether a single vaccination in individuals who have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2 generates similar initial and subsequent antibody responses to two vaccinations in those without prior infection. We compared anti-spike IgG antibody responses after a single vaccination with ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, or mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the COVID-19 Infection Survey in the UK general population. In 100,849 adults median (50 (IQR: 37–63) years) receiving at least one vaccination, 13,404 (13.3%) had serological/PCR evidence of prior infection. Prior infection significantly boosted antibody responses, producing higher peak levels and/or longer half-lives after one dose of all three vaccines than those without prior infection receiving one or two vaccinations. In those with prior infection, the median time above the positivity threshold was >1 year after the first vaccination. Single-dose vaccination targeted to those previously infected may provide at least as good protection to two-dose vaccination among those without previous infection. The impact of prior infection on the immune response to COVID-19 vaccination has not been fully characterised. Here, the authors use data from ~100,000 adults in the UK and find that a single vaccine dose in those with prior infection produces a comparable or stronger response to two doses in those without infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The incidence of bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae is increasing, with substantial associated morbidity, mortality, and antimicrobial resistance. Unbiased serotyping studies to guide vaccine target selection are limited. Methods We conducted unselected, population-level genomic surveillance of bloodstream E. coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from 2008 to 2018 in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom. We supplemented this with an analysis of publicly available global sequencing data (n = 3678). Results We sequenced 3478 E. coli isolates (3278 passed quality control) and 556 K. pneumoniae isolates (535 [K-antigen] and 549 [O-antigen] passed quality control). The 4 most common E. coli O-antigens (O1/O2/O6/O25) were identified in 1499/3278 isolates; the incidence of these O-types increased over time (incidence rate ratio per year [IRRy] = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11–1.16). These O-types accounted for 616/1434 multidrug-resistant (MDR) and 173/256 extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-resistant isolates in Oxfordshire but only 19/90 carbapenem-resistant isolates across all studies. For Klebsiella pneumoniae , the most common O-antigens (O2v2/O1v1/O3b/O1v2) accounted for 410/549 isolates; the incidence of BSIs caused by these also increased annually (IRRy = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.05–1.12). These O-types accounted for 122/148 MDR and 106/123 ESBL isolates in Oxfordshire and 557/734 carbapenem-resistant isolates across all studies. Conversely we observed substantial capsular antigen diversity. Analysis of 3678 isolates from global studies demonstrated the generalizability of these findings. For E. coli , based on serotyping, the ExPEC4V and ExPEC10V vaccines under investigation would cover 46% and 72% of Oxfordshire isolates respectively, and 47% and 71% of MDR isolates. Conclusions O-antigen targeted vaccines may be useful in reducing the morbidity, mortality, and antimicrobial resistance associated with E. coli and K. pneumoniae BSIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the trajectory, duration, and determinants of antibody responses after SARS-CoV-2 infection can inform subsequent protection and risk of reinfection, however large-scale representative studies are limited. Here we estimated antibody response after SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population using representative data from 7,256 United Kingdom COVID-19 infection survey participants who had positive swab SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests from 26-April-2020 to 14-June-2021. A latent class model classified 24% of participants as 'non-responders' not developing anti-spike antibodies, who were older, had higher SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold values during infection (i.e. lower viral burden), and less frequently reported any symptoms. Among those who seroconverted, using Bayesian linear mixed models, the estimated anti-spike IgG peak level was 7.3-fold higher than the level previously associated with 50% protection against reinfection, with higher peak levels in older participants and those of non-white ethnicity. The estimated anti-spike IgG half-life was 184 days, being longer in females and those of white ethnicity. We estimated antibody levels associated with protection against reinfection likely last 1.5-2 years on average, with levels associated with protection from severe infection present for several years. These estimates could inform planning for vaccination booster strategies. Most people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 seroconvert within a few weeks, but the determinants and duration of the antibody response are not known. Here, the authors characterise these features of the immune response using data from a large representative community sample of the UK population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody measurements can be used to estimate the proportion of a population exposed or infected and may be informative about the risk of future infection. Previous estimates of the duration of antibody responses vary. Methods We present 6 months of data from a longitudinal seroprevalence study of 3276 UK healthcare workers (HCWs). Serial measurements of SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike IgG were obtained. Interval censored survival analysis was used to investigate the duration of detectable responses. Additionally, Bayesian mixed linear models were used to investigate anti-nucleocapsid waning. Results Anti-spike IgG levels remained stably detected after a positive result, for example, in 94% (95% credibility interval [CrI] 91–96%) of HCWs at 180 days. Anti-nucleocapsid IgG levels rose to a peak at 24 (95% CrI 19–31) days post first polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive test, before beginning to fall. Considering 452 anti-nucleocapsid seropositive HCWs over a median of 121 days from their maximum positive IgG titer, the mean estimated antibody half-life was 85 (95% CrI 81–90) days. Higher maximum observed anti-nucleocapsid titers were associated with longer estimated antibody half-lives. Increasing age, Asian ethnicity, and prior self-reported symptoms were independently associated with higher maximum anti-nucleocapsid levels and increasing age and a positive PCR test undertaken for symptoms with longer anti-nucleocapsid half-lives. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid antibodies wane within months and fall faster in younger adults and those without symptoms. However, anti-spike IgG remains stably detected. Ongoing longitudinal studies are required to track the long-term duration of antibody levels and their association with immunity to SARS-CoV-2 reinfection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To reduce inappropriate antibiotic use, public health campaigns often provide fear-based information about antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Meta-analyses have found that fear-based campaigns in other contexts are likely to be ineffective unless respondents feel confident they can carry out the recommended behaviour ('self-efficacy'). This study aimed to test the likely impact of fear-based messages, with and without empowering self-efficacy elements, on patient consultations/antibiotic requests for influenza-like illnesses, using a randomised design.Methods: We hypothesised that fear-based messages containing empowering information about self-management without antibiotics would be more effective than fear alone, particularly in a pre-specified subgroup with low AMR awareness. Four thousand respondents from an online panel, representative of UK adults, were randomised to receive three different messages about antibiotic use and AMR, designed to induce fear about AMR to varying degrees. Two messages (one 'strong-fear', one 'mild-fear') also contained empowering information regarding influenza-like symptoms being easily self-managed without antibiotics. The main outcome measures were self-reported effect of information on likelihood of visiting a doctor and requesting antibiotics, for influenza-like illness, analysed separately according to whether or not the AMR information was 'very/somewhat new' to respondents, pre-specified based on a previous (non-randomised) survey.Results: The 'fear-only' message was 'very/somewhat new' to 285/1000 (28.5%) respondents, 'mild-fear-plus-empowerment' to 336/1500 (22.4%), and 'strong-fear-plus-empowerment' to 388/1500 (25.9%) (p = 0.002). Of those for whom the respective information was 'very/somewhat new', only those given the 'strong-fear-plus-empowerment' message said they would be less likely to request antibiotics if they visited a doctor for an influenza-like illness (p < 0.0001; 182/388 (46.9%) 'much less likely'/'less likely', versus 116/336 (34.5%) with 'mild-fear-plus-empowerment' versus 85/285 (29.8%) with 'fear-alone'). Those for whom the respective information was not 'very/somewhat new' said they would be less likely to request antibiotics for influenza-like illness (p < 0.0001) across all messages (interaction p < 0.0001 versus 'very/somewhat new' subgroup). The three messages had analogous self-reported effects on likelihood of visiting a doctor and in subgroups defined by believing antibiotics would 'definitely/probably' help an influenza-like illness. Results were reproduced in an independent randomised survey (additional 4000 adults).Conclusions: Fear could be effective in public campaigns to reduce inappropriate antibiotic use, but should be combined with messages empowering patients to self-manage symptoms effectively without antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To determine the occurrence of mcr-1 and mcr-2 genes in Gram-negative bacteria isolated from healthy pigs in Great Britain.Methods: Gram-negative bacteria (n = 657) isolated from pigs between 2014 and 2015 were examined by WGS.Results: Variants of mcr-1 and mcr-2 were identified in Moraxella spp. isolated from pooled caecal contents of healthy pigs at slaughter collected from six farms in Great Britain. Other bacteria, including Escherichia coli from the same farms, were not detected harbouring mcr-1 or mcr-2. A Moraxella porci-like isolate, MSG13-C03, harboured MCR-1.10 with 98.7% identity to MCR-1, and a Moraxella pluranimalium-like isolate, MSG47-C17, harboured an MCR-2.2 variant with 87.9% identity to MCR-2, from E. coli; the isolates had colistin MICs of 1-2 mg/L. No intact insertion elements were identified in either MSG13-C03 or MSG47-C17, although MSG13-C03 harboured the conserved nucleotides abutting the ISApl1 composite transposon found in E. coli plasmids and the intervening ∼2.6 kb fragment showed 97% identity. Six Moraxella osloensis isolates were positive for phosphoethanolamine transferase (EptA). They shared 62%-64.5% identity to MCR-1 and MCR-2, with colistin MICs from 2 to 4 mg/L. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that MCR and EptA have evolved from a common ancestor. In addition to mcr, the β-lactamase gene, blaBRO-1, was found in both isolates, whilst the tetracycline resistance gene, tetL, was found in MSG47-C17.Conclusions: Our results add further evidence for the mobilization of the mcr-pap2 unit from Moraxella via composite transposons leading to its global dissemination. The presence of mcr-pap2 from recent Moraxella isolates indicates they may comprise a reservoir for mcr. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Herd immunity is important in the effectiveness of conjugate polysaccharide vaccines against encapsulated bacteria. A large multicenter study investigated the effect of meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine introduction on the meningococcal population. Methods. Carried meningococci in individuals aged 15-19 years attending education establishments were investigated before and for 2 years after vaccine introduction. Isolates were characterized by multilocus sequence typing, serogroup, and capsular region genotype and changes in phenotypes and genotypes assessed. Results. A total of 8462 meningococci were isolated from 47 765 participants (17.7%). Serogroup prevalence was similar over the 3 years, except for decreases of 80% for serogroup C and 40% for serogroup 29E. Clonal complexes were associated with particular serogroups and their relative proportions fluctuated, with 12 statistically significant changes (6 up, 6 down). The reduction of ST-11 complex serogroup C meningococci was probably due to vaccine introduction. Reasons for a decrease in serogroup 29E ST-254 meningococci (from 1.8% to 0.7%) and an increase in serogroup B ST-213 complex meningococci (from 6.7% to 10.6%) were less clear. Conclusions. Natural fluctuations in carried meningococcal genotypes and phenotypes a can be affected by the use of conjugate vaccines, and not all of these changes are anticipatable in advance of vaccine introduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. In 1999, meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccines were introduced in the United Kingdom for those under 19 years of age. The impact of this intervention on asymptomatic carriage of meningococci was investigated to establish whether serogroup replacement or protection by herd immunity occurred. Methods. Multicenter surveys of carriage were conducted during vaccine introduction and on 2 successive years, resulting in a total of 48,309 samples, from which 8599 meningococci were isolated and characterized by genotyping and phenotyping. Results. A reduction in serogroup C carriage (rate ratio, 0.19) was observed that lasted at least 2 years with no evidence of serogroup replacement. Vaccine efficacy against carriage was 75%, and vaccination had a disproportion- ate impact on the carriage of sequence type (ST)-11 complex serogroup C meningococci that (rate ratio, 0.06); these meningococci also exhibited high rates of capsule expression. Conclusions. The impact of vaccination with MCC vaccine on the prevalence of carriage of group C meningococci was consistent with herd immunity. The high impact on the carriage of ST-11 complex serogroup C could be attributed to high levels of capsule expression. High vaccine efficacy against disease in young children, who were not protected long-term by the schedule initially used, is attributed to the high vaccine efficacy against carriage in older age groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) account for a significant portion of inappropriate antibiotic use. Patient expectations for antibiotics for ILI are likely to play a substantial role in 'unnecessary' antibiotic consumption. This study aimed to investigate trends in awareness of appropriate antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Three sequential online surveys of independent representative samples of adults in the United Kingdom investigated expectations for, and consumption of, antibiotics for ILI (May/June 2015 (n = 2064); Oct/Nov 2016 (n = 4000); Mar 2017 (n = 4000)). Respondents were asked whether they thought antibiotics were effective for ILI and about their antibiotic use. Proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for each question and interactions with respondent characteristics were tested using logistic regression. Over the three surveys, the proportion of respondents who believed antibiotics would "definitely/probably" help an ILI fell from 37% (95% CI 35–39%) to 28% (95% CI 26–29%). Those who would "definitely/probably" visit a doctor in this situation fell from 48% (95% CI 46–50%) to 36% (95% CI 34–37%), while those who would request antibiotics during a consultation fell from 39% (95% CI 37–41%) to 30% (95% CI 29–32%). The percentage of respondents who found the information we provided about AMR "new/surprising" fell from 34% (95% CI 32–36%) to 28% (95% CI 26–31%). Awareness improved more among black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) than white people, with little other evidence of differences in improvements between subgroups. Whilst a degree of selection bias is unavoidable in online survey samples, the results suggest that awareness of AMR and appropriate antibiotic use has recently significantly improved in the United Kingdom, according to a wide range of indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the fairness of Great Britain's financial penalties imposed on hospitals which do not meet the Department of Health target for reduction of Clostridium difficile infection. The factors which affect an expected financial penalty include reduction in C. difficile risk, the closeness of the observed reduction in cases to the true risk reduction, and the formula for calculating the financial penalty. The authors explain that the C. difficile infection is not under a hospital's complete control. Problems with stipulated financial penalties and the effects of penalties are addressed. The authors believe that a fairer penalty would have a low chance of penalising trusts whose observed cases are compatible with the target risk reduction.

Summary: Background: Tuberculosis incidence in the UK has risen in the past decade. Disease control depends on epidemiological data, which can be difficult to obtain. Whole-genome sequencing can detect microevolution within Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. We aimed to estimate the genetic diversity of related M tuberculosis strains in the UK Midlands and to investigate how this measurement might be used to investigate community outbreaks. Methods: In a retrospective observational study, we used Illumina technology to sequence M tuberculosis genomes from an archive of frozen cultures. We characterised isolates into four groups: cross-sectional, longitudinal, household, and community. We measured pairwise nucleotide differences within hosts and between hosts in household outbreaks and estimated the rate of change in DNA sequences. We used the findings to interpret network diagrams constructed from 11 community clusters derived from mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit–variable-number tandem-repeat data. Findings: We sequenced 390 separate isolates from 254 patients, including representatives from all five major lineages of M tuberculosis. The estimated rate of change in DNA sequences was 0·5 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per genome per year (95% CI 0·3–0·7) in longitudinal isolates from 30 individuals and 25 families. Divergence is rarely higher than five SNPs in 3 years. 109 (96%) of 114 paired isolates from individuals and households differed by five or fewer SNPs. More than five SNPs separated isolates from none of 69 epidemiologically linked patients, two (15%) of 13 possibly linked patients, and 13 (17%) of 75 epidemiologically unlinked patients (three-way comparison exact p<0·0001). Genetic trees and clinical and epidemiological data suggest that super-spreaders were present in two community clusters. Interpretation: Whole-genome sequencing can delineate outbreaks of tuberculosis and allows inference about direction of transmission between cases. The technique could identify super-spreaders and predict the existence of undiagnosed cases, potentially leading to early treatment of infectious patients and their contacts. Funding: Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and the Health Protection Agency. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in developed and developing countries. No common genetic determinants of susceptibility have been defined. Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) is a key mediator of innate host immunity that activates the complement pathway and directly opsonises some infectious pathogens. Mutations in three codons in the MBL gene have been identified, and individuals homozygous for a mutant genotype have very little or no serum MBL. We did a case-control study in the UK to assess whether these mutant genotypes were associated with invasive pneumococcal disease. Methods: The frequencies of genotypes defined by the three mutations in codons 52, 54, and 57, and a functional promoter polymorphism at -221, were compared in a two-stage study of 337 patients with invasive pneumococcal disease and 1032 controls. All individuals were recruited from an ethnically homogeneous white population in Oxfordshire, UK. Patients had S pneumoniae isolated from a normally sterile site. Findings: In our initial set of participants, 28 (12%) of 229 patients and 18 (5%) of 353 controls were homozygotes for MBL codon variants (odds ratio 2.59 [95% CI 1.39-4.83], p=0.002). Neither heterozygosity for these codon variants nor the promoter polymorphism was associated with susceptibility. In a confirmatory study, 11 (10%) of 108 patients were MBL homozygotes compared with 36 (5%) of 679 controls (p=0.046). Interpretation: Homozygotes for MBL codon variants, who represent about 5% of north Europeans and north Americans and larger proportions of populations in many developing countries, could be at substantially increased risk of invasive pneumococcal disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, whether boosters or breakthrough infections provide greater protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection is incompletely understood. Here we investigated SARS-CoV-2 antibody correlates of protection against new Omicron BA.4/5 (re-)infections and anti-spike IgG antibody trajectories after a third/booster vaccination or breakthrough infection following second vaccination in 154,149 adults ≥18 y from the United Kingdom general population. Higher antibody levels were associated with increased protection against Omicron BA.4/5 infection and breakthrough infections were associated with higher levels of protection at any given antibody level than boosters. Breakthrough infections generated similar antibody levels to boosters, and the subsequent antibody declines were slightly slower than after boosters. Together our findings show breakthrough infection provides longer-lasting protection against further infections than booster vaccinations. Our findings, considered alongside the risks of severe infection and long-term consequences of infection, have important implications for vaccine policy., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Plasmids enable the dissemination of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in common Enterobacterales pathogens, representing a major public health challenge. However, the extent of plasmid sharing and evolution between Enterobacterales causing human infections and other niches remains unclear, including the emergence of resistance plasmids. Dense, unselected sampling is essential to developing our understanding of plasmid epidemiology and designing appropriate interventions to limit the emergence and dissemination of plasmid-associated AMR. We established a geographically and temporally restricted collection of human bloodstream infection (BSI)-associated, livestock-associated (cattle, pig, poultry, and sheep faeces, farm soils) and wastewater treatment work (WwTW)-associated (influent, effluent, waterways upstream/downstream of effluent outlets) Enterobacterales. Isolates were collected between 2008 and 2020 from sites <60 km apart in Oxfordshire, UK. Pangenome analysis of plasmid clusters revealed shared 'backbones', with phylogenies suggesting an intertwined ecology where well-conserved plasmid backbones carry diverse accessory functions, including AMR genes. Many plasmid 'backbones' were seen across species and niches, raising the possibility that plasmid movement between these followed by rapid accessory gene change could be relatively common. Overall, the signature of identical plasmid sharing is likely to be a highly transient one, implying that plasmid movement might be occurring at greater rates than previously estimated, raising a challenge for future genomic One Health studies., Competing Interests: WM, SL, KC, MA, LB, JK, MA, SO, MM, DC, DR, MA, LS, NS No competing interests declared, (© 2023, Matlock, Lipworth et al.)

Objective To describe the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the incidence of paediatric viral respiratory tract infection in Oxfordshire, UK. Methods Data on paediatric Emergency Department (ED) attendances (0-15 years inclusive), respiratory virus testing, vital signs and mortality at Oxford University Hospitals were summarised using descriptive statistics. Results Between 1-March-2016 and 30-July-2021, 155,056 ED attendances occurred and 7,195 respiratory virus PCRs were performed. Detection of all pathogens was suppressed during the first national lockdown. Rhinovirus and adenovirus rates increased when schools reopened September-December 2020, then fell, before rising in March-May 2021. The usual winter RSV peak did not occur in 2020/21, with an inter-seasonal rise (32/1,000 attendances in 0-3 yr olds) in July 2021. Influenza remained suppressed throughout. A higher paediatric early warning score (PEWS) was seen for attendees with adenovirus during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic (p = 0.04, Mann-Witney U test), no other differences in PEWS were seen. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 caused major changes in the incidence of paediatric respiratory viral infection in Oxfordshire, with implications for clinical service demand, testing strategies, timing of palivizumab RSV prophylaxis, and highlighting the need to understand which public health interventions are most effective for preventing respiratory virus infections., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest DWE declares lecture fees from Gilead, outside the submitted work. No other author has a conflict of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: The incidence of Gram-negative bloodstream infections (BSIs), predominantly caused by Escherichia coli and Klebsiella species, continues to increase; however, the causes of this are unclear and effective interventions are therefore hard to design., Methods: In this study, we sequenced 3468 unselected isolates over a decade in Oxfordshire (UK) and linked this data to routinely collected electronic healthcare records and mandatory surveillance reports. We annotated genomes for clinically relevant genes, contrasting the distribution of these within and between species, and compared incidence trends over time using stacked negative binomial regression., Results: We demonstrate that the observed increases in E. coli incidence were not driven by the success of one or more sequence types (STs); instead, four STs continue to dominate a stable population structure, with no evidence of adaptation to hospital/community settings. Conversely in Klebsiella spp., most infections are caused by sporadic STs with the exception of a local drug-resistant outbreak strain (ST490). Virulence elements are highly structured by ST in E. coli but not Klebsiella spp. where they occur in a diverse spectrum of STs and equally across healthcare and community settings. Most clinically hypervirulent (i.e. community-onset) Klebsiella BSIs have no known acquired virulence loci. Finally, we demonstrate a diverse but largely genus-restricted mobilome with close associations between antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes and insertion sequences but not typically specific plasmid replicon types, consistent with the dissemination of AMR genes being highly contingent on smaller mobile genetic elements (MGEs)., Conclusions: Our large genomic study highlights distinct differences in the molecular epidemiology of E. coli and Klebsiella BSIs and suggests that no single specific pathogen genetic factors (e.g. AMR/virulence genes/sequence type) are likely contributing to the increasing incidence of BSI overall, that association with AMR genes in E. coli is a contributor to the increasing number of E. coli BSIs, and that more attention should be given to AMR gene associations with non-plasmid MGEs to try and understand horizontal gene transfer networks., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

We report that in a cohort of 45,965 adults, who were receiving either the ChAdOx1 or the BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, in those who had no prior infection with SARS-CoV-2, seroconversion rates and quantitative antibody levels after a single dose were lower in older individuals, especially in those aged >60 years. Two vaccine doses achieved high responses across all ages. Antibody levels increased more slowly and to lower levels with a single dose of ChAdOx1 compared with a single dose of BNT162b2, but waned following a single dose of BNT162b2 in older individuals. In descriptive latent class models, we identified four responder subgroups, including a 'low responder' group that more commonly consisted of people aged >75 years, males and individuals with long-term health conditions. Given our findings, we propose that available vaccines should be prioritized for those not previously infected and that second doses should be prioritized for individuals aged >60 years. Further data are needed to better understand the extent to which quantitative antibody responses are associated with vaccine-mediated protection., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: In the UK, consultations for prescription medicines are available via private providers such as online pharmacies. However, these providers may have lower thresholds for prescribing certain drugs. This is a particular concern for antibiotics, given the increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance. Public preferences for consultations with online providers are unknown, hence the impact of increased availability of online consultations on antibiotic use and population health is unclear., Objective: To conduct a discrete choice experiment survey to understand UK public preferences for seeking online consultations, and the factors that influence these preferences, in the context of having symptoms for which antibiotics may be appropriate., Methods: In a survey conducted between July and August 2018, general population respondents completed 16 questions in which they chose a primary care consultation via either their local medical centre or an online provider. Consultations were described in terms of five attributes, including cost and similarity to traditional 'face-to-face' appointments. Choices were modelled using regression analysis., Results: Respondents (n = 734) placed a high value on having a consultation via their local medical centre rather than an online provider, and a low value on consultations by phone or video. However, respondents characterised as 'busy young professionals' showed a lower strength of preference for traditional consultations, with a higher concern for convenience., Conclusion: Before COVID-19, the UK public had limited appetite for consultations with online providers, or for consultations that were not face-to-face. Nevertheless, prescriptions from online providers should be monitored going forward, particularly for antibiotics, and in key patient groups., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays have typically been determined using samples from symptomatic, often hospitalised, patients. In this setting the sensitivity and specificity of the best performing assays can both exceed 98%. However, antibody assay performance following mild infection is less clear., Methods: We assessed quantitative IgG responses in a cohort of healthcare workers in Oxford, UK, with a high pre-test probability of Covid-19, in particular the 991/11,475(8.6%) who reported loss of smell/taste. We use anosmia/ageusia and other risk factors as probes for Covid-19 infection potentially undiagnosed by immunoassays by investigating their relationship with antibody readings either side of assay thresholds., Results: The proportion of healthcare workers reporting anosmia/ageusia increased at antibody readings below diagnostic thresholds using an in-house ELISA (n = 9324) and the Abbott Architect chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA; n = 11,324): 426/906 (47%) reported anosmia/ageusia with a positive ELISA, 59/449 (13.1%) with high-negative and 326/7969 (4.1%) with low-negative readings. Similarly, by CMIA, 518/1093 (47.4%) with a positive result reported anosmia/ageusia, 106/686 (15.5%) with a high-negative and 358/9563 (3.7%) with a low-negative result. Adjusting for the proportion of staff reporting anosmia/ageusia suggests the sensitivity of both assays in mild infection is lower than previously reported: Oxford ELISA 89.8% (95%CI 86.6-92.8%) and Abbott CMIA 79.3% (75.9-82.7%)., Conclusion: Following mild SARS-CoV-2 infection 10-30% of individuals may have negative immunoassay results. While lowered diagnostic thresholds may result in unacceptable specificity, our findings have implications for epidemiological analyses and result interpretation in individuals with a high pre-test probability. Samples from mild PCR-confirmed infections should be included in SARS-CoV-2 immunoassay evaluations.

Background: The relationship between the presence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the risk of subsequent reinfection remains unclear., Methods: We investigated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in seropositive and seronegative health care workers attending testing of asymptomatic and symptomatic staff at Oxford University Hospitals in the United Kingdom. Baseline antibody status was determined by anti-spike (primary analysis) and anti-nucleocapsid IgG assays, and staff members were followed for up to 31 weeks. We estimated the relative incidence of PCR-positive test results and new symptomatic infection according to antibody status, adjusting for age, participant-reported gender, and changes in incidence over time., Results: A total of 12,541 health care workers participated and had anti-spike IgG measured; 11,364 were followed up after negative antibody results and 1265 after positive results, including 88 in whom seroconversion occurred during follow-up. A total of 223 anti-spike-seronegative health care workers had a positive PCR test (1.09 per 10,000 days at risk), 100 during screening while they were asymptomatic and 123 while symptomatic, whereas 2 anti-spike-seropositive health care workers had a positive PCR test (0.13 per 10,000 days at risk), and both workers were asymptomatic when tested (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.03 to 0.44; P = 0.002). There were no symptomatic infections in workers with anti-spike antibodies. Rate ratios were similar when the anti-nucleocapsid IgG assay was used alone or in combination with the anti-spike IgG assay to determine baseline status., Conclusions: The presence of anti-spike or anti-nucleocapsid IgG antibodies was associated with a substantially reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the ensuing 6 months. (Funded by the U.K. Government Department of Health and Social Care and others.)., (Copyright © 2020 Massachusetts Medical Society.)

We conducted voluntary Covid-19 testing programmes for symptomatic and asymptomatic staff at a UK teaching hospital using naso-/oro-pharyngeal PCR testing and immunoassays for IgG antibodies. 1128/10,034 (11.2%) staff had evidence of Covid-19 at some time. Using questionnaire data provided on potential risk-factors, staff with a confirmed household contact were at greatest risk (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 4.82 [95%CI 3.45-6.72]). Higher rates of Covid-19 were seen in staff working in Covid-19-facing areas (22.6% vs. 8.6% elsewhere) (aOR 2.47 [1.99-3.08]). Controlling for Covid-19-facing status, risks were heterogenous across the hospital, with higher rates in acute medicine (1.52 [1.07-2.16]) and sporadic outbreaks in areas with few or no Covid-19 patients. Covid-19 intensive care unit staff were relatively protected (0.44 [0.28-0.69]), likely by a bundle of PPE-related measures. Positive results were more likely in Black (1.66 [1.25-2.21]) and Asian (1.51 [1.28-1.77]) staff, independent of role or working location, and in porters and cleaners (2.06 [1.34-3.15])., Competing Interests: DE Lecture fees from Gilead, outside the submitted work, SL, DO, MC, ES, EL, FW, TJ, SC, AH, GD, SH, JK, KC, PF, JS, DV, FY, NS, PM, MD, TD, RS, LP, LD, AV, AA, BY, PD, AM, DS, FK, MN, MA, AB, NJ, LM, TC, BM, SH, RC, DC, DS, GS, TP, BH, AO, DE, CC, KJ, TW No competing interests declared, (© 2020, Eyre et al.)

UK Biobank (UKB) is an international health resource enabling research into the genetic and lifestyle determinants of common diseases of middle and older age. It comprises 500 000 participants. Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System is a centralized microbiology database covering English clinical diagnostics laboratories that provides national surveillance of legally notifiable infections, bacterial isolations and antimicrobial resistance. We previously developed secure, pseudonymized, individual-level linkage of these systems. In this study, we implemented rapid dynamic linkage, which allows us to provide a regular feed of new COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) test results to UKB to facilitate rapid and urgent research into the epidemiological and human genetic risk factors for severe infection in the cohort. Here, we have characterized the first 1352 cases of COVID-19 in UKB participants, of whom 895 met our working definition of severe COVID-19 as inpatients hospitalized on or after 16 March 2020. We found that the incidence of severe COVID-19 among UKB cases was 27.4 % lower than the general population in England, although this difference varied significantly by age and sex. The total number of UKB cases could be estimated as 0.6 % of the publicly announced number of cases in England. We considered how increasing case numbers will affect the power of genome-wide association studies. This new dynamic linkage system has further potential to facilitate the investigation of other infections and the prospective collection of microbiological cultures to create a microbiological biobank (bugbank) for studying the interaction of environment, human and microbial genetics on infection in the UKB cohort.

Resistance to amoxicillin-clavulanate, a widely used beta-lactam/beta-lactamase inhibitor combination antibiotic, is rising globally, and yet susceptibility testing remains challenging. To test whether whole-genome sequencing (WGS) could provide a more reliable assessment of susceptibility than traditional methods, we predicted resistance from WGS for 976 Escherichia coli bloodstream infection isolates from Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, comparing against phenotypes from the BD Phoenix (calibrated against EUCAST guidelines). A total of 339/976 (35%) isolates were amoxicillin-clavulanate resistant. Predictions based solely on beta-lactamase presence/absence performed poorly (sensitivity, 23% [78/339]) but improved when genetic features associated with penicillinase hyperproduction (e.g., promoter mutations and copy number estimates) were considered (sensitivity, 82% [277/339]; P < 0.0001). Most discrepancies occurred in isolates with MICs within ±1 doubling dilution of the breakpoint. We investigated two potential causes: the phenotypic reference and the binary resistant/susceptible classification. We performed reference standard, replicated phenotyping in a random stratified subsample of 261/976 (27%) isolates using agar dilution, following both EUCAST and CLSI guidelines, which use different clavulanate concentrations. As well as disagreeing with each other, neither agar dilution phenotype aligned perfectly with genetic features. A random-effects model investigating associations between genetic features and MICs showed that some genetic features had small, variable and additive effects, resulting in variable resistance classification. Using model fixed-effects to predict MICs for the non-agar dilution isolates, predicted MICs were in essential agreement (±1 doubling dilution) with observed (BD Phoenix) MICs for 691/715 (97%) isolates. This suggests amoxicillin-clavulanate resistance in E. coli is quantitative, rather than qualitative, explaining the poorly reproducible binary (resistant/susceptible) phenotypes and suboptimal concordance between different phenotypic methods and with WGS-based predictions., (Copyright © 2020 Davies et al.)

Carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales is a public health threat. Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (encoded by alleles of the bla KPC family) is one of the most common transmissible carbapenem resistance mechanisms worldwide. The dissemination of bla KPC ). In the United Kingdom, K. pneumoniae lineages (clonal group 258 [CG258]), a particular plasmid family (pKpQIL), and a composite transposon (Tn 4401 ). In the United Kingdom, bla KPC has represented a large-scale, persistent management challenge for some hospitals, particularly in North West England. The dissemination of bla KPC has evolved to be polyclonal and polyspecies, but the genetic mechanisms underpinning this evolution have not been elucidated in detail; this study used short-read whole-genome sequencing of 604 bla KPC -positive isolates (Illumina) and long-read assembly (PacBio)/polishing (Illumina) of 21 isolates for characterization. We observed the dissemination of bla KPC (predominantly bla KPC-2 ; 573/604 [95%] isolates) across eight species and more than 100 known sequence types. Although there was some variation at the transposon level (mostly Tn 4401a , 584/604 [97%] isolates; predominantly with ATTGA-ATTGA target site duplications, 465/604 [77%] isolates), bla KPC spread appears to have been supported by highly fluid, modular exchange of larger genetic segments among plasmid populations dominated by IncFIB (580/604 isolates), IncFII (545/604 isolates), and IncR (252/604 isolates) replicons. The subset of reconstructed plasmid sequences (21 isolates, 77 plasmids) also highlighted modular exchange among non- bla KPC and bla KPC plasmids and the common presence of multiple replicons within bla KPC plasmid structures (>60%). The substantial genomic plasticity observed has important implications for our understanding of the epidemiology of transmissible carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales for the implementation of adequate surveillance approaches and for control., (Copyright © 2020 American Society for Microbiology.)

Background: Candida auris is an emerging and multidrug-resistant pathogen. Here we report the epidemiology of a hospital outbreak of C. auris colonization and infection., Methods: After identification of a cluster of C. auris infections in the neurosciences intensive care unit (ICU) of the Oxford University Hospitals, United Kingdom, we instituted an intensive patient and environmental screening program and package of interventions. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of C. auris colonization and infection. Isolates from patients and from the environment were analyzed by whole-genome sequencing., Results: A total of 70 patients were identified as being colonized or infected with C. auris between February 2, 2015, and August 31, 2017; of these patients, 66 (94%) had been admitted to the neurosciences ICU before diagnosis. Invasive C. auris infections developed in 7 patients. When length of stay in the neurosciences ICU and patient vital signs and laboratory results were controlled for, the predictors of C. auris colonization or infection included the use of reusable skin-surface axillary temperature probes (multivariable odds ratio, 6.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.96 to 15.63; P<0.001) and systemic fluconazole exposure (multivariable odds ratio, 10.34; 95% CI, 1.64 to 65.18; P=0.01). C. auris was rarely detected in the general environment. However, it was detected in isolates from reusable equipment, including multiple axillary skin-surface temperature probes. Despite a bundle of infection-control interventions, the incidence of new cases was reduced only after removal of the temperature probes. All outbreak sequences formed a single genetic cluster within the C. auris South African clade. The sequenced isolates from reusable equipment were genetically related to isolates from the patients., Conclusions: The transmission of C. auris in this hospital outbreak was found to be linked to reusable axillary temperature probes, indicating that this emerging pathogen can persist in the environment and be transmitted in health care settings. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance at Oxford University and others.).

We used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to delineate transmission networks and investigate the benefits of WGS during cluster investigation.We included clustered cases of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB)/extensively drug-resistant (XDR) TB linked by mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit variable tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) strain typing or epidemiological information in the national cluster B1006, notified between 2007 and 2013 in the UK. We excluded from further investigation cases whose isolates differed by greater than 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Data relating to patients' social networks were collected.27 cases were investigated and 22 had WGS, eight of which (36%) were excluded as their isolates differed by more than 12 SNPs to other cases. 18 cases were ruled into the transmission network based on genomic and epidemiological information. Evidence of transmission was inconclusive in seven out of 18 cases (39%) in the transmission network following WGS and epidemiological investigation.This investigation of a drug-resistant TB cluster illustrates the opportunities and limitations of WGS in understanding transmission in a setting with a high proportion of migrant cases. The use of WGS should be combined with classical epidemiological methods. However, not every cluster will be solvable, regardless of the quality of genomic data., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: None declared., (Copyright ©ERS 2018.)

Background: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE), including KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-Kpn), are an increasing threat to patient safety., Objectives: To use WGS to investigate the extent and complexity of carbapenemase gene dissemination in a controlled KPC outbreak., Materials and Methods: Enterobacteriaceae with reduced ertapenem susceptibility recovered from rectal screening swabs/clinical samples, during a 3 month KPC outbreak (2013-14), were investigated for carbapenemase production, antimicrobial susceptibility, variable-number-tandem-repeat profile and WGS [short-read (Illumina), long-read (MinION)]. Short-read sequences were used for MLST and plasmid/Tn4401 fingerprinting, and long-read sequence assemblies for plasmid identification. Phylogenetic analysis used IQTree followed by ClonalFrameML, and outbreak transmission dynamics were inferred using SCOTTI., Results: Twenty patients harboured KPC-positive isolates (6 infected, 14 colonized), and 23 distinct KPC-producing Enterobacteriaceae were identified. Four distinct KPC plasmids were characterized but of 20 KPC-Kpn (from six STs), 17 isolates shared a single pKpQIL-D2 KPC plasmid. All isolates had an identical transposon (Tn4401a), except one KPC-Kpn (ST661) with a single nucleotide variant. A sporadic case of KPC-Kpn (ST491) with Tn4401a-carrying pKpQIL-D2 plasmid was identified 10 months before the outbreak. This plasmid was later seen in two other species and other KPC-Kpn (ST14,ST661) including clonal spread of KPC-Kpn (ST661) from a symptomatic case to nine ward contacts., Conclusions: WGS of outbreak KPC isolates demonstrated blaKPC dissemination via horizontal transposition (Tn4401a), plasmid spread (pKpQIL-D2) and clonal spread (K. pneumoniae ST661). Despite rapid outbreak control, considerable dissemination of blaKPC still occurred among K. pneumoniae and other Enterobacteriaceae, emphasizing its high transmission potential and the need for enhanced control efforts., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Background: Approximately 30-40% of children <1 year of age are Clostridium difficile colonized, and may represent a reservoir for adult C. difficile infections (CDI). Risk factors for colonization with toxigenic versus non-toxigenic C. difficile strains and longitudinal acquisition dynamics in infants remain incompletely characterized., Methods: Predominantly healthy infants (≤2 years) were recruited in Oxfordshire, UK, and provided ≥1 fecal samples. Independent risk factors for toxigenic/non-toxigenic C. difficile colonization and acquisition were identified using multivariable regression. Infant C. difficile isolates were whole-genome sequenced to assay genetic diversity and prevalence of toxin-associated genes, and compared with sequenced strains from Oxfordshire CDI cases., Results: 338/365 enrolled infants provided 1332 fecal samples, representing 158 C. difficile colonization or carriage episodes (107[68%] toxigenic). Initial colonization was associated with age, and reduced with breastfeeding but increased with pet dogs. Acquisition was associated with older age, Caesarean delivery, and diarrhea. Breastfeeding and pre-existing C. difficile colonization reduced acquisition risk. Overall 13% of CDI C. difficile strains were genetically related to infant strains. 29(18%) infant C. difficile sequences were consistent with recent direct/indirect transmission to/from Oxfordshire CDI cases (≤2 single nucleotide variants [SNVs]); 79(50%) shared a common origin with an Oxfordshire CDI case within the last ~5 years (0-10 SNVs). The hypervirulent, epidemic ST1/ribotype 027 remained notably absent in infants in this large study, as did other lineages such as STs 10/44 (ribotype 015); the most common strain in infants was ST2 (ribotype 020/014)(22%)., Conclusions: In predominantly healthy infants without significant healthcare exposure C. difficile colonization and acquisition reflect environmental exposures, with pet dogs identified as a novel risk factor. Genetic overlap between some infant strains and those isolated from CDI cases suggest common community reservoirs of these C. difficile lineages, contrasting with those lineages found only in CDI cases, and therefore more consistent with healthcare-associated spread.

Background: The role of symptomatic patients who are toxigenic strain positive (TS+) but fecal toxin negative (FT-) in transmission of Clostridium difficile is currently unknown., Methods: We investigated the contribution of symptomatic TS+/FT- and TS+/FT+ patients in C. difficile transmission in 2 UK regions. From 2-step testing, all glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH)-positive specimens, regardless of fecal toxin result, from Oxford (April 2012 through April 2013) and Leeds (July 2012 through April 2013) microbiology laboratories underwent culture and whole-genome sequencing (WGS), using WGS to identify toxigenic strains. Plausible sources for each TS+/FT+ case, including TS+/FT- and TS+/FT+ patients, were determined using WGS, with and without hospital admission data., Results: A total of 1447 of 12772 (11%) fecal samples were GDH positive, 866 of 1447 (60%) contained toxigenic C. difficile, and fecal toxin was detected in 511 of 866 (59%), representing 235 Leeds and 191 Oxford TS+/FT+ cases. TS+/FT+ cases were 3 times more likely to be plausibly acquired from a previous TS+/FT+ case than a TS+/FT- patient. Fifty-one of 265 (19%) TS+/FT+ cases diagnosed >3 months into the study were genetically related (≤2 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) to ≥1 previous TS+/FT+ case or TS+/FT- patient: 27 (10%) to only TS+/FT+ cases, 9 (3%) to only TS+/FT- patients, and 15 (6%) to both. Only 10 of 265 (4%) were genetically related to a previous TS+/FT+ or TS+/FT- patient and shared the same ward simultaneously or within 28 days., Conclusions: Symptomatic TS+/FT- patients were a source of C. difficile transmission, although they accounted for less onward transmission than TS+/FT+ cases. Although transmission from symptomatic patients with either fecal toxin status accounted for a low overall proportion of new cases, both groups should be infection control targets., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: New approaches are urgently required to address increasing rates of gonorrhoea and the emergence and global spread of antibiotic-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae. We used whole-genome sequencing to study transmission and track resistance in N gonorrhoeae isolates., Methods: We did whole-genome sequencing of isolates obtained from samples collected from patients attending sexual health services in Brighton, UK, between Jan 1, 2011, and March 9, 2015. We also included isolates from other UK locations, historical isolates from Brighton, and previous data from a US study. Samples from symptomatic patients and asymptomatic sexual health screening underwent nucleic acid amplification testing; positive samples and all samples from symptomatic patients were cultured for N gonorrhoeae, and resulting isolates were whole-genome sequenced. Cefixime susceptibility testing was done in selected isolates by agar incorporation, and we used sequence data to determine multi-antigen sequence types and penA genotypes. We derived a transmission nomogram to determine the plausibility of direct or indirect transmission between any two cases depending on the time between samples: estimated mutation rates, plus diversity noted within patients across anatomical sites and probable transmission pairs, were used to fit a coalescent model to determine the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms expected., Findings: 1407 (98%) of 1437 Brighton isolates between Jan 1, 2011, and March 9, 2015 were successfully sequenced. We identified 1061 infections from 907 patients. 281 (26%) of these infections were indistinguishable (ie, differed by zero single nucleotide polymorphisms) from one or more previous cases, and 786 (74%) had evidence of a sampled direct or indirect Brighton source. We observed multiple related samples across geographical locations. Of 1273 infections in Brighton (including historical data), 225 (18%) were linked to another case elsewhere in the UK, and 115 (9%) to a case in the USA. Four lineages initially identified in Brighton could be linked to 70 USA sequences, including 61 from a lineage carrying the mosaic penA XXXIV allele, which is associated with reduced cefixime susceptibility., Interpretation: We present a whole-genome-sequencing-based tool for genomic contact tracing of N gonorrhoeae and demonstrate local, national, and international transmission. Whole-genome sequencing can be applied across geographical boundaries to investigate gonorrhoea transmission and to track antimicrobial resistance., Funding: Oxford National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit and Biomedical Research Centre., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors have no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Staphylococcal protein A (spa) is an important virulence factor which enables Staphylococcus aureus to evade host immune responses. Genotypes known as "spa-types", based on highly variable Xr region sequences of the spa-gene, are frequently used to classify strains. A weakness of current spa-typing primers is that rearrangements in the IgG-binding region of the gene cause 1-2% of strains to be designated as "non-typeable"., Results: We developed an improved primer which enabled sequencing of all strains, containing any type of genetic rearrangement, in a large study among community carriers and hospital inpatients in Oxfordshire, UK (6110 isolates). We identified eight novel spa-gene variants, plus one previously described. Three of these rearrangements would be designated "non-typeable" using current spa-typing methods; they occurred in 1.8% (72/3905) asymptomatically carried and 0.6% (14/2205) inpatient S. aureus strains. Some individuals were simultaneously colonized by both formerly non-typeable and typeable strains; previously such patients would have been identified as carrying only currently typeable strains, underestimating mixed carriage prevalence and diversity. Formerly non-typeable strains were found in more spa-types associated with multilocus sequence type ST398 (35%), common among livestock, compared to other groups with any non-typeable strains (1-4%), suggesting particular spa-types may have been under-represented in previous human studies., Conclusions: This improved method allows us to spa-type previously non-typeable strains with rearrangements in the spa-gene and to resolve cases of mixed colonization with deletions in one or more strains, thus accounting for hidden diversity of S. aureus in both community and hospital environments.

Background: It has been thought that Clostridium difficile infection is transmitted predominantly within health care settings. However, endemic spread has hampered identification of precise sources of infection and the assessment of the efficacy of interventions., Methods: From September 2007 through March 2011, we performed whole-genome sequencing on isolates obtained from all symptomatic patients with C. difficile infection identified in health care settings or in the community in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom. We compared single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) between the isolates, using C. difficile evolution rates estimated on the basis of the first and last samples obtained from each of 145 patients, with 0 to 2 SNVs expected between transmitted isolates obtained less than 124 days apart, on the basis of a 95% prediction interval. We then identified plausible epidemiologic links among genetically related cases from data on hospital admissions and community location., Results: Of 1250 C. difficile cases that were evaluated, 1223 (98%) were successfully sequenced. In a comparison of 957 samples obtained from April 2008 through March 2011 with those obtained from September 2007 onward, a total of 333 isolates (35%) had no more than 2 SNVs from at least 1 earlier case, and 428 isolates (45%) had more than 10 SNVs from all previous cases. Reductions in incidence over time were similar in the two groups, a finding that suggests an effect of interventions targeting the transition from exposure to disease. Of the 333 patients with no more than 2 SNVs (consistent with transmission), 126 patients (38%) had close hospital contact with another patient, and 120 patients (36%) had no hospital or community contact with another patient. Distinct subtypes of infection continued to be identified throughout the study, which suggests a considerable reservoir of C. difficile., Conclusions: Over a 3-year period, 45% of C. difficile cases in Oxfordshire were genetically distinct from all previous cases. Genetically diverse sources, in addition to symptomatic patients, play a major part in C. difficile transmission. (Funded by the U.K. Clinical Research Collaboration Translational Infection Research Initiative and others.).

Background: Despite substantial interest in biomarkers, their impact on clinical outcomes and variation with bacterial strain has rarely been explored using integrated databases., Methods: From September 2006 to May 2011, strains isolated from Clostridium difficile toxin enzyme immunoassay (EIA)-positive fecal samples from Oxfordshire, United Kingdom (approximately 600,000 people) underwent multilocus sequence typing. Fourteen-day mortality and levels of 15 baseline biomarkers were compared between consecutive C. difficile infections (CDIs) from different clades/sequence types (STs) and EIA-negative controls using Cox and normal regression adjusted for demographic/clinical factors., Results: Fourteen-day mortality was 13% in 2222 adults with 2745 EIA-positive samples (median, 78 years) vs 5% in 20,722 adults with 27,550 EIA-negative samples (median, 74 years) (absolute attributable mortality, 7.7%; 95% CI, 6.4%-9.0%). Mortality was highest in clade 5 CDIs (25% [16 of 63]; polymerase chain reaction (PCR) ribotype 078/ST 11), then clade 2 (20% [111 of 560]; 99% PCR ribotype 027/ST 1) versus clade 1 (12% [137 of 1168]; adjusted P < .0001). Within clade 1, 14-day mortality was only 4% (3 of 84) in ST 44 (PCR ribotype 015) (adjusted P = .05 vs other clade 1). Mean baseline neutrophil counts also varied significantly by genotype: 12.4, 11.6, and 9.5 × 10(9) neutrophils/L for clades 5, 2 and 1, respectively, vs 7.0 × 10(9) neutrophils/L in EIA-negative controls (P < .0001) and 7.9 × 10(9) neutrophils/L in ST 44 (P = .08). There were strong associations between C. difficile-type-specific effects on mortality and neutrophil/white cell counts (rho = 0.48), C-reactive-protein (rho = 0.43), eosinophil counts (rho = -0.45), and serum albumin (rho = -0.47). Biomarkers predicted 30%-40% of clade-specific mortality differences., Conclusions: C. difficile genotype predicts mortality, and excess mortality correlates with genotype-specific changes in biomarkers, strongly implicating inflammatory pathways as a major influence on poor outcome after CDI. PCR ribotype 078/ST 11 (clade 5) leads to severe CDI; thus ongoing surveillance remains essential.

Objectives: To investigate trends in Escherichia coli resistance, bacteraemia rates and post-bacteraemia outcomes over time., Methods: Trends in E. coli bacteraemia incidence were monitored from January 1999 to June 2011 using an infection surveillance database including microbiological, clinical risk factor, infection severity and outcome data in Oxfordshire, UK, with imported temperature/rainfall data., Results: A total of 2240 E. coli (from 2080 patients) were studied, of which 1728 (77%) were susceptible to co-amoxiclav, cefotaxime, ciprofloxacin and gentamicin. E. coli bacteraemia incidence increased from 3.4/10,000 bedstays in 1999 to 5.7/10,000 bedstays in 2011. The increase was fastest around 2006, and was essentially confined to organisms resistant to ciprofloxacin, co-amoxiclav, cefotaxime and/or aminoglycosides. Resistant E. coli isolation rates increased similarly in those with and without recent hospital contact. The sharp increase also occurred in urinary isolates, with similar timing. In addition to these long-term trends, increases in ambient temperature, but not rainfall, were associated with increased E. coli bacteraemia rates. It is unclear whether resistant E. coli bacteraemia rates are currently still increasing [incidence rate ratio = 1.07 per annum (95% CI = 0.99-1.16), P = 0.07], whereas current susceptible E. coli bacteraemia rates are not changing significantly [incidence rate ratio = 1.01 (95% CI = 0.99-1.02)]. However, neither mortality nor biomarkers associated with mortality (blood creatinine, urea/albumin concentrations, neutrophil counts) changed during the study., Conclusions: E. coli bacteraemia rates have risen due to rising rates of resistant organisms; little change occurred in susceptible E. coli. Although the severity of resistant infections, and their outcome, appear similar to susceptible E. coli in the setting studied, the increasing burden of highly resistant organisms is alarming and merits on-going surveillance.

Background: Changing clinical impact, as virulent clones replace less virulent ones, is a feature of many pathogenic bacterial species and can be difficult to detect. Consequently, innovative techniques monitoring infection severity are of potential clinical value., Methods and Findings: We studied 5,551 toxin-positive and 20,098 persistently toxin-negative patients tested for Clostridium difficile infection between February 1998 and July 2009 in a group of hospitals based in Oxford, UK, and investigated 28-day mortality and biomarkers of inflammation (blood neutrophil count, urea, and creatinine concentrations) collected at diagnosis using iterative sequential regression (ISR), a novel joinpoint-based regression technique suitable for serial monitoring of continuous or dichotomous outcomes. Among C. difficile toxin-positive patients in the Oxford hospitals, mean neutrophil counts on diagnosis increased from 2003, peaked in 2006-2007, and then declined; 28-day mortality increased from early 2006, peaked in late 2006-2007, and then declined. Molecular typing confirmed these changes were likely due to the ingress of the globally distributed severe C. difficile strain, ST1. We assessed the generalizability of ISR-based severity monitoring in three ways. First, we assessed and found strong (p<0.0001) associations between isolation of the ST1 severe strain and higher neutrophil counts at diagnosis in two unrelated large multi-centre studies, suggesting the technique described might be useful elsewhere. Second, we assessed and found similar trends in a second group of hospitals in Birmingham, UK, from which 5,399 cases were analysed. Third, we used simulation to assess the performance of this surveillance system given the ingress of future severe strains under a variety of assumptions. ISR-based severity monitoring allowed the detection of the severity change years earlier than mortality monitoring., Conclusions: Automated electronic systems providing early warning of the changing severity of infectious conditions can be established using routinely collected laboratory hospital data. In the settings studied here these systems have higher performance than those monitoring mortality, at least in C. difficile infection. Such systems could have wider applicability for monitoring infections presenting in hospital.

Molecular analysis of Clostridium difficile (28 isolates) from children (n = 128) in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, identified eight toxigenic genotypes. Six of these were isolated from 27% of concurrent adult C. difficile-associated infections studied (n = 83). No children carried hypervirulent PCR ribotype 027. Children could participate in the transmission of some adult disease-causing genotypes.