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The electricity supply industry is being restructured worldwide into a competitive market structure in which electricity is produced by generators, transmitted by transmission companies, and distributed by suppliers according to new trading agreements. In this market, System Marginal Price (SMP) plays a very important role. Obviously, an accurate prediction wouldbenefit all market participants involved. In this paper, through comparing the characteristics of the SMP and the load, a novel method based on wavelet transform and neural networks is proposed and tested by the UK pool data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronological age (CA) does not reflect individual variation in the aging process. However, existing biological age predictors are mostly based on European populations and overlook the widespread nonlinear effects of clinical biomarkers., Methods: Using data from the prospective Dongfeng-Tongji (DFTJ) cohort of elderly Chinese, we propose a physiological aging index (PAI) based on 36 routine clinical biomarkers to measure aging progress. We first determined the optimal level of each biomarker by restricted cubic spline Cox models. For biomarkers with a U-shaped relationship with mortality, we derived new variables to model their distinct effects below and above the optimal levels. We defined PAI as a weighted sum of variables predictive of mortality selected by a LASSO Cox model. To measure aging acceleration, we defined ΔPAI as the residual of PAI after regressing on CA. We evaluated the predictive value of ΔPAI on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the DFTJ cohort, as well as nine major chronic diseases in the UK Biobank (UKB)., Results: In the DFTJ training set (n = 12,769, median follow-up: 10.38 years), we identified 25 biomarkers with significant nonlinear associations with mortality, of which 11 showed insignificant linear associations. By incorporating nonlinear effects, we selected CA and 17 clinical biomarkers to calculate PAI. In the DFTJ testing set (n = 15,904, 5.87 years), PAI predict mortality with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.816 (95% confidence interval, [0.796, 0.837]), better than CA (C-index = 0.771 [0.755, 0.788]) and PhenoAge (0.799 [0.784, 0.814]). ΔPAI was predictive of incident CVD and its subtypes, independent of traditional risk factors. In the external validation set of UKB (n = 296,931, 12.80 years), PAI achieved a C-index of 0.749 (0.746, 0.752) to predict mortality, remaining better than CA (0.706 [0.702, 0.709]) and PhenoAge (0.743 [0.739, 0.746]). In both DFTJ and UKB, PAI calibrated better than PhenoAge when comparing the predicted and observed survival probabilities. Furthermore, ΔPAI outperformed any single biomarker to predict incident risks of eight age-related chronic diseases., Conclusions: Our results highlight the potential of PAI and ΔPAI as integrative biomarkers to evaluate aging acceleration and facilitate the development of targeted intervention strategies for healthy aging., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: All participants from the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort provided written informed consent. The study protocol was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology (2012–10). Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: The associations between sleep patterns or behaviors and the risk of cirrhosis and the influence of genetic susceptibility on these associations among NAFLD participants remain inadequately elucidated., Methods: This study conducted a prospective follow-up of 112,196 NAFLD participants diagnosed at baseline from the UK Biobank cohort study. Five sleep behaviors were collected to measure a healthy sleep score. Five genetic variants were used to construct a polygenic risk score. We used Cox proportional hazard model to assess hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incidence of cirrhosis., Results: During the follow-up, 592 incident cirrhosis cases were documented. Healthy sleep pattern was associated with reduced risk of cirrhosis in a dose-response manner (p trend  < 0.001). Participants with favourable sleep score (versus unfavourable sleep score) had an HR of 0.55 for cirrhosis risk (95% CI 0.39-0.78). Multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of cirrhosis incidence for NAFLDs with no frequent insomnia, sleeping for 7-8 h per day, and no excessive daytime dozing behaviors were 0.73 (0.61-0.87), 0.79 (0.66-0.93), and 0.69 (0.50-0.95), respectively. Compared with participants with favourable sleep pattern and low genetic risk, those with unfavourable sleep pattern and high genetic risk had higher risks of cirrhosis incidence (HR 3.16, 95% CI 1.88-5.33). In addition, a significant interaction between chronotype and genetic risk was detected for the incidence of cirrhosis (p for multiplicative interaction = 0.004)., Conclusion: An association was observed between healthy sleep pattern and decreased risk of cirrhosis among NAFLD participants, regardless of low or high genetic risk., (© 2024. Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver.)

Study Objectives: To investigate the role of longitudinal change of sleep patterns in the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD)., Methods: Based on UK Biobank, a total of 18 172 participants were enrolled. Five dimensions of healthy sleep including early chronotype, sleep 7-8 hours/day, free of insomnia, no snoring, and no frequent excessive daytime sleepiness were used to generate a healthy sleep score (HSS) ranging from 0 to 5. Corresponding to the HSS of 0-1, 2-3, and 4-5, the poor, intermediate, and healthy sleep patterns were defined. Based on changes in HSS across assessments 1 and 2, we calculated the absolute difference of HSS. For the change in sleep patterns, we categorized five profiles (stable healthy, worsening, stable intermediate, optimizing, and stable poor sleep patterns). The outcomes were incidence of CVD including coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. We assessed the adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Cox hazard models., Results: Compared with participants with stable poor patterns, those who improved their sleep patterns or maintained healthy sleep patterns had a 26% and 32% lower risk of CVD, respectively. Stable healthy sleep pattern was associated with a 29% and 44% reduced risk of CHD and stroke. Per unit, longitudinal increment of the HSS was related to an 8% lower risk of CVD and CHD. Compared with individuals with constant HSS, those with decreased HSS had a 13% higher risk of developing CVD., Conclusions: Optimizing sleep patterns and maintaining a healthy sleep pattern may reduce the risk of CVD., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Considering the high prevalence and poor prognosis of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM), identifying causal factors and actively implementing preventive measures is crucial. However, Mendelian randomization (MR), a key method for identifying the causal factors of CMM, requires knowledge of the effects of SNPs on CMM, which remain unknown. We first analyzed the genetic overlap of single cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) using the latest genome-wide association study (GWAS) for evidential support and comparison. We observed strong positive genetic correlations and shared loci among all CMDs. Further, GWAS and post-GWAS analyses of CMM were performed in 407 949 European ancestry individuals from the UK Biobank. Eleven loci and 12 lead SNPs were identified. By comparison, we found these SNPs were a subset of SNPs associated with CMDs, including both shared and non-shared SNPs. Then, the polygenic risk score model predicted the risk of CMM (C-index = 0.62) and we identified candidate genes related to lipid metabolism and immune function. Finally, as an example, two-sample MR analysis based on the GWAS revealed potential causal effects of total cholesterol, serum urate, body mass index, and smoking on CMM. These results provide a basis for future MR research and inspire future studies on the mechanism and prevention of CMM., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Although frailty was associated with cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes here), there was no systematic analyses estimating its role in incidence, progression, and prognosis of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM)., Methods: We included 351 205 participants without CMDs at baseline in UK Biobank. Occurrences of first CMD, CMM, and death were recorded. We used multistate models to assess transition-specific role of baseline frailty measured by frailty phenotype and frailty index in CMM progression trajectory from no disease to single CMD, CMM, and death. Association between changes in frailty and outcomes was investigated among 17 264 participants., Results: Among 351 205 participants (44.0% male, mean age 56.55 years), 8 190 (2.3%) had frail phenotype, and 13 615 (3.9%) were moderate/severe frail according to the frailty index. During median follow-up of 13.11 years, 41 558 participants experienced ≥1 CMD, 4 952 had CMM, and 20 670 died. In multistate models, frail phenotype-related hazard ratios were 1.94 and 2.69 for transitions from no CMD to single disease and death, 1.63 and 1.67 for transitions from single CMD to CMM and death, and 1.57 for transitions from CMM to death (all p < .001). Consistent results were observed for frailty index. Improvement of frailty reduced the risk of CMD progression and death., Conclusions: Frailty is an independent risk factor for all transitions of CMM progression trajectory. Frailty-targeted management is a potential strategy for primary and secondary prevention of CMM beyond chronological age., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Study Objectives: To investigate the implications of both sleep factors and sleep patterns on the prognosis of cardiometabolic multimorbidity., Methods: From UK Biobank, individuals with cardiometabolic multimorbidity , defined as the coincidence of at least 2 cardiometabolic diseases (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, and stroke) were included in this study. Four low-risk sleep factors, including early chronotype, sleep 7-8 h/d, free of insomnia, and no frequent excessive daytime sleepiness, were used to generate a healthy sleep score ranging from 0 to 4. Participants with a score of 0-1, 2, 3-4 were clustered into groups with poor, intermediate, and healthy sleep pattern, respectively. We assessed the adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for all-cause mortality using the Cox proportional hazards model., Results: Among included 35,757 participants, the mean age (standard deviation)) was 61.82 (6.3) years. After full adjustment, early chronotype, sleep 7-8 h/d, no frequent excessive daytime sleepiness, and free of insomnia were independently associated with 8%, 12%, 11%, and 8% lower risk of all-cause mortality among all persons with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. We found the fully adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for all-cause mortality was 0.90 (0.88-0.92) for a 1-point increase in the healthy sleep score. Compared with the reference group, participants with the intermediate and healthy sleep pattern had 9% and 23% lower risk of all-cause death, respectively, in the fully adjusted model., Conclusions: A healthy sleep pattern combining 4 low-risk sleep factors could be regarded as a healthy lifestyle for individuals with cardiometabolic multimorbidity to lower the risk of all-cause mortality., Citation: He L, Ma T, Cheng X, Bai Y. The association between sleep characteristics and the risk of all-cause mortality among individuals with cardiometabolic multimorbidity: a prospective study of UK Biobank. J Clin Sleep Med . 2023;19(4):651-658., (© 2023 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.)

Background and Aims: Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) has risen as a global issue of public health, with an in-creasing prevalence and more severe clinical prognosis. This study aimed to estimate the association between use of fish oil and mortality among patients with CMM., Methods and Results: In this prospective study based on UK Biobank, participants with ≥2 of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs, including coronary heart disease [CHD], diabetes, hypertension, and stroke in this study) at recruitment were included. Use of fish oil was derived from touchscreen questionnaires at baseline. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality were accessed via electronic health-related records. Kaplan-Meier curves and flexible parametric Royston-Parmar proportion-hazard models were fitted to assess the as-sociations of fish-oil use with all-cause, cardiovascular mortality, and related life expectancy alterations. Among 30 068 participants from UK Biobank (67.9% men; mean age 61.75 years), 5357 deaths were reported during 12.03 years of follow-up. For patients with CMM, use of fish oil was associated with a 17% lower risk of all-cause mortality (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.78-0.88, P < 0.001), and 19% lower risk of cardiovascular mortality (95% CI 0.72-0.90, P < 0.001) in multivariable-adjusted models. At 45 years old, using fish oil was associated with 1.66 years of life expectancy gained., Conclusion: Among patients with CMM, use of fish oil was associated with a significantly reduced risk of all-cause, cardiovascular mortality, and prolonged life expectancy., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest None., (Copyright © 2022 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Study Objectives: To investigate whether a healthy sleep pattern would reduce the risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) among hypertensives., Methods: This is a prospective cohort analysis from the UK Biobank. A total of 69 524 hypertensives without a history of diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, or stroke at baseline were enrolled. Five dimensions of healthy sleep at baseline including early chronotype, sleep 7-8 h/d, free of insomnia, no snoring, and no frequent excessive daytime sleepiness were used to generate a healthy sleep score ranging from 0 to 5 (one point was given for each dimension of healthy sleep). A higher score indicated a healthier sleep pattern. We set five groups corresponding to the healthy sleep score of 5, 4, 3, 2, and 0-1, respectively. The primary outcome was the incidence of overall CMM among enrolled hypertensives. We assessed the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models., Results: We found the full-adjusted HR (95% CI) for overall CMM was 0.93 (0.91-0.95) for a 1-point increase in the healthy sleep score. Compared to hypertensives with a healthy sleep score of 0-1, those with a score of 5 had a 27% lower risk of overall CMM, and 37%, 23%, and 20% lower risks of diabetes mellitus, coronary heart disease, and stroke, respectively, after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristic, lifestyle, and clinical factors., Conclusions: Our results indicated that a healthy sleep pattern was associated with lower risks of CMM outcomes among hypertensives., (© Sleep Research Society 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society.)

Purpose: The role of fish oil in the prognosis of hypertensive patients is unknown. This study investigated the associations of fish oil supplementation with the progression of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) and mortality among patients with hypertension., Methods: Based on UK Biobank, we enrolled participants with hypertension and free of other cardiometabolic diseases. The exposure was baseline use of fish oil derived from questionnaires at baseline. The primary outcomes were the incidence of CMM and all-cause mortality. Competing risk models and flexible parametric proportion-hazards models were fitted to assess the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of CMM and mortality outcomes, respectively., Results: Among 81,579 participants involved [50.37%, men; mean age, 59.38 years (standard deviation, 7.23 years)], 15,990 CMM events and 6456 all-cause deaths were reported (median follow-up, 12.23 years). In multivariable-adjusted models, baseline use of fish oil was associated with 8% lower risk of CMM [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.89-0.96, P < 0.001] and 10% lower risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI 0.85-0.95, P < 0.001)., Conclusion: In individuals with hypertension, baseline use of fish oil was associated with a reduced risk of CMM and all-cause mortality, and further clinical trials are needed to prove this hypothesis., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.)

Background: Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) is becoming increasingly common in patients with hypertension, and it is well established that healthy lifestyle plays a key role in the prevention of hypertension. However, the association between combined lifestyle factors and CMM in patients with hypertension is uncertain., Methods: This prospective analysis included the data (obtained from the UK biobank) of participants with hypertension who did not have coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, or diabetes. The outcome was the occurrence of CMM, defined as ≥ 1 disease of CHD, stroke, and diabetes that occurred in participants with hypertension. Four lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity) were assessed using a weighted healthy lifestyle score, and participants were divided into four groups: the very unhealthy, unhealthy, healthy, and very healthy groups. The flexible parameter Royston-Parmar proportional hazard model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) between lifestyles and CMM, as well as the difference in CMM-free life expectancy., Results: During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, 9812 (18.4%) of the 53,397 hypertensive patients occurred CMM. Compared with the very unhealthy group, the very healthy group had a 41% reduction in the risk for CMM in hypertensive patients and a 32-50% reduction in the risk for specific cardiometabolic diseases such as CHD, stroke, and diabetes. For each lifestyle factor, non-smoking had the greatest protective effect against CMM (HR: 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60-0.68). A lifestyle combining multiple healthy factors extended CMM-free life expectancy (e.g., six years longer at age 45 years for participants in the very healthy group)., Conclusions: Combined healthy lifestyle factors were associated with a lower risk for CMM in hypertensive patients. This suggests that combined healthy lifestyle should be supported to decrease disease burden., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background Although the association between shift work and individual cardiometabolic diseases has been well studied, its role in the progression to cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the association between shift work and the incidence of CMM in patients with hypertension. Methods and Results This study is a population-based and prospective cohort study on 36 939 UK Biobank participants. We used competing risk models to examine the association between shift work and the risk of CMM, which was defined as coexistence of hypertension and diabetes, coronary heart disease, or stroke in our study. We also investigated the association between the frequency and duration of shift work and CMM risks. In addition, we conducted a cross-classification analysis with the combination of frequency and duration of shift work, chronotype and sleep duration as the exposure metrics. During a median follow-up of 11.6 years, a total of 5935 participants developed CMM. We found that usually/always night shift workers were associated with a 16% higher risk of CMM compared with day workers (hazard ratio [HR], 1.16 [95% CI, 1.02-1.31]). We also found that a higher frequency of night shifts (>10/month) was associated with increased risk of CMM (HR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.06-1.34]) that was more pronounced for >10/month in combination with a morning chronotype or <7 hours or >8 hours of sleep duration (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.02-1.56]; HR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.19-1.72], respectively). Conclusions We find that night shift work is associated with higher CMM risk in patients with hypertension.

Background: Although the association between beverages and a single cardiometabolic disease has been well studied, their role in disease progression from the single cardiometabolic disease state to cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) state remains unclear. This study examined the associations between three types of beverages: sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs), and pure fruit/vegetable juices, and the incidence of CMM in patients with a single cardiometabolic disease., Methods: Our analysis included 37,994 participants from the UK Biobank who completed at least one dietary questionnaire and were diagnosed with only one cardiometabolic disease at the time of recruitment. Competing risk models were used to examine the association between the three types of beverages and incidence of CMM. We conducted analysis both in patients with any single cardiometabolic disease and in patients with specific cardiometabolic disease., Results: During a median follow-up of 9.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 9.0-9.8), a total of 6399 participants developed CMM. The consumption of SSBs and ASBs (>1 serving per day) was associated with a higher risk of CMM (SSBs: hazard ratio [HR] 1.19, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.08-1.31; ASBs: HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.27). Intake of pure fruit/vegetable juices was inversely associated with the incidence of CMM (0-1 serving per day: HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.94; >1 serving per day: HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.99). However, the association of the high-level consumption of pure fruit/vegetable juices (>1 serving per day) was not statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing. In the analysis of patients with specific cardiometabolic diseases, positive associations were observed in patients with hypertension for SSBs consumption, while inverse associations persisted in patients with cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke) and in hypertensive patients for pure fruit/vegetable juice consumption., Conclusions: Consuming >1 serving of SSBs and ASBs per day was associated with a higher risk of CMM in patients with a single cardiometabolic disease. In contrast, intake of pure fruit/vegetable juices was inversely associated with the risk of CMM. Our findings highlight the need to limit the use of SSBs and ASBs in patients with a single cardiometabolic disease., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Individual cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) are associated with an increased risk of depression, but it's unclear whether having more than one CMD is associated with accumulative effects on depression. We aimed to assess the associations between CMDs and depression and determine the accumulative extent., Methods: In this cross-sectional study based on UK Biobank, participants with available information on CMDs and depression were enrolled. The history of CMDs was derived from self-reported medical history and electrical health-related records. Depression status was assessed by the aggregation of self-reported history and antidepressant use, depression (Smith), and hospital inpatient diagnoses. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the association between the number or specific patterns of CMDs and depression and to test the accumulative effect of CMD number, adjusting for confounding factors., Results: 391,083 participants were enrolled in our analyses. After multivariable adjustments, CMDs of different number or patterns were associated with a higher risk of depression compared with the reference group (all P < 0.001). In the full-adjusted model, participants with one [odds ratio (OR) 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23-1.29], two (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.44-1.56), and three or more (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.97-2.30) CMD(s) had an increased risk of depression. A significant, accumulative dose-related relationship between the number of CMDs and depression was observed (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.24-1.27). The dose-dependent accumulative relationship was consistent in stratified analyses and sensitivity analyses., Conclusions: CMDs were associated with a higher risk of depression, and there was an accumulative relationship between CMD number and depression., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Gong, Ma, He, Lin, Zhang, Cheng, Luo and Bai.)

Background: Pressure ulcers (PU) refer to local tissue ulceration and necrosis caused by long-term compression and friction brought on by tissue ischemia and hypoxia. Diabetic wounds do not easily heal, and once a pressure ulceration occurs, it is difficult to deal with. The purpose of this study was to analyze the current research status of PUs in diabetic patients., Methods: The Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-E) database was searched with terms of "Pressure Ulcer" and "Diabetes". Citespace software was used to analyze the annual distribution of the number of target documents and the distribution of countries, institutions, journals, authors, and keywords used in these works., Results: In all, 1271 documents were retrieved, with a total citation frequency of 47,081, and an h-index of 101. The top 5 countries in terms of the number of publications were the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, and the Netherlands; the top 5 countries in centrality were the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Japan, and France. The institutions with the greatest number of publications were the University of Amsterdam, Cardiff University, The University of Washington, and the University of Manchester. The institutions with the highest centrality were the University of Amsterdam, the University of Groningen, the University of Washington, the University of Adelaide, Baylor College of Medicine, and Queensland University of Technology. The authors with a highest number of publications were Bus SA, Apelqvist J, and the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot, and Hinchliffe RJ. Only 2 authors had a centrality score above 0.01. Journals such as Diabetes Metabolism Research and Reviews, Diabetes Care, and Journal of Wound Care showed considerable influence in this field. Keyword analysis indicated that the use of keywords in this field is not uniform, and the focus of research on PUs in diabetic patients lies the risk and management of foot ulcers., Conclusions: There are few studies concerning PUs in patients with diabetes and little collaboration between authors. The current focus in this field is on the risk and management of foot ulcers.