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Private gardens are recognised as potentially important refugia for butterflies. Yet little is known about how gardens might be contributing to butterfly conservation, as their restricted accessibility has meant that garden habitats are not well‐represented in traditional monitoring schemes.Garden BirdWatch (GBW) is the UK's largest structured bird survey, comprising over 25 years of weekly bird counts from more than 14,000 gardens, predominantly occupying suburban and rural locations. Since 2007, a subset of GBW participants have additionally recorded the weekly abundances of butterflies. Using data for 14 seasons (2007–2020) from 7971 gardens with consistent butterfly monitoring, we present the first garden‐specific, national trends for 22 widespread butterfly species (37% of all UK butterflies).Half of the species investigated increased significantly in abundance in gardens between 2007 and 2020. Conversely, only one species, Wall (Lasiommata megera), showed a marginal reduction, though this change was not statistically significant.A strong, positive association between these new, habitat‐focused trends and those for UK butterflies more broadly, previously reported by the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS), indicates that patterns of abundance in gardens are largely a reflection of the changes that are occurring nationally. However, butterflies do appear to be faring better in gardens compared to the wider landscape. Averaging trends across non‐migratory species revealed that GBW recorded significantly greater increases over time than UKBMS.Effective monitoring of butterflies in gardens can produce reliable and informative population trends, and it provides important evidence of the significant role gardens play in sustaining butterfly populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Teaching computing students about the importance of evidence and about the use of empirical methods for evaluating computing technologies can be difficult, especially within dual honors undergraduate degree programs. The aims of this study were to explore the effectiveness of second-year undergraduate computing students in carrying out a systematic literature review and to identify the elements of the process that the students found most difficult. A multicase case study of students carrying out an assignment to perform a systematic literature review (SLR) was undertaken. Students worked in groups and were studying across a range of computing programs. Data was collected from three sources: student grades, the comments made by the teaching staff on the submitted reports, and a debriefing questionnaire. All of the groups successfully completed the assignment. Results on which parts of the process were the most difficult were mixed, although much of the evidence suggests that the students found the conduct phase more problematic than the planning phase. It can be concluded that undergraduates can do SLRs, but the task is clearly quite challenging and time-consuming. SLRs are well suited to being undertaken by groups. (Contains 3 tables, 1 figure and 7 footnotes.)

Simple Summary: It is well known that captive animals change their behavior and space use when watched by visitors. However, there is limited research on the potential effects of an observer who sits close to the captive animal's enclosure. This study investigates the observer effect in two pairs of Edwards' pheasants (Lophura edwardsi) and their offspring at Sparsholt College, United Kingdom. The impact of an observer (as opposed to camera) on behavior and enclosure use of pheasants was observed. Statistical tests were used to investigate observer impact, alongside the additional variables of keeper and visitor presence, temperature, and individual bird differences. Overall, the behaviors of resting and clustering were significantly increased during observer presence, whereas feeding and locomotion were significantly decreased. The behaviors of preening and standing were not affected by observer presence, though they were influenced by keeper and visitor presence. Enclosure use was also affected by observer presence, though the effect size was small. Animal researchers should consider how the presence of an observer might affect the behavior of their observed animals. It is well known that captive animals alter their behavior and space use when observed by visitors, with the concept coined the 'visitor effect'. The 'observer effect', described as any alteration in behavior and enclosure use as a result of a quiet, stationary observer, has been less studied. This study investigates the observer effect in two pairs of Edwards' pheasants (Lophura edwardsi) and their offspring at Sparsholt College, United Kingdom. The impact of an observer (as opposed to camera) on behavior and enclosure use of pheasants was observed, using instantaneous focal sampling. Enclosure use was measured by converting both enclosures into unequal zones and then assessing the evenness of enclosure use through modified Spread of Participation Index. Poisson regression analysis was used to investigate observer impact, alongside the additional variables of keeper and visitor presence, temperature, and individual bird differences. Overall, the behaviors of resting and clustering were significantly increased during observer presence, whereas feeding and locomotion were significantly decreased. The behaviors of preening and standing were not affected by observer presence, though they were influenced by keeper and visitor presence. Enclosure use was also affected by observer presence, though the effect size was small. This suggests that pheasants may perceive the presence of humans near their enclosures as a potential threat, and may alter their behavior to reduce detection, similar to their wild counterparts. Animal researchers should consider the potential impact of observer presence on their subjects, particularly when observing species such as pheasants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate change has been predicted to facilitate poleward expansion of many early‐successional specialist invertebrates. The Grizzled Skipper, Pyrgus malvae, is a threatened butterfly in long‐term decline that has not met expectations of northern expansion in Britain, possibly indicating that climate change has not improved northern habitat suitability or that another driver (e.g. land use change) is masking its effects. Here, we explore the effect of climate on population size trends over four decades, and whether any regions show an improving population trend that may be a precursor to northern expansion. Examining detailed spatio‐temporal abundance data can reveal unexpected limitations to population growth that would not be detectable in widely used climate envelope models. Location: Central and southern England. Methods: Mixed models were used to investigate P. malvae population size in relation to time and monthly climate measures across its UK range since 1976, based on repeated transect walks. Results: We found that P. malvae population size declined more over time in the north and west of its UK range than in the south and east, and was negatively related to high December temperature and summer rainfall. However, the effect sizes of temperature and rainfall were minimal. Main Conclusions: The last 40 years of climate change have not ameliorated climate suitability for P. malvae at its range edge, contrary to expectations from spatial‐only climate envelope models. The clear long‐term downward trends in population size are independent of climate change and we propose probably due to habitat deterioration. Our findings highlight potential hazards in predicting species range expansions from spatial models alone. Although some climate variables may be associated with a species' distribution, other factors may be more dominant drivers of trends and therefore more useful predictors of range changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Covid-19 induced United Kingdom-wide lockdown in 2020 saw choirs face a unique situation of trying to continue without being able to meet in-person. Live networked simultaneous music-making for large groups of singers is not possible, so other "virtual choir" activities were explored. A cross sectional online survey of 3948 choir members and facilitators from across the United Kingdom was conducted, with qualitative analysis of open text questions, to investigate which virtual choir solutions have been employed, how choir members and facilitators experience these in comparison to an "in-person" choir, and whether the limitations and opportunities of virtual choir solutions shed light on the value of the experience of group singing as a whole. Three virtual choir models were employed: Multi-track, whereby individuals record a solo which is mixed into a choral soundtrack; Live streamed, where individuals take part in sessions streamed live over social media; Live tele-conferencing, for spoken interaction and/or singing using tele-conferencing software. Six themes were identified in the open text responses: Participation Practicalities, encompassing reactions to logistics of virtual models; Choir Continuity, reflecting the responsibility felt to maintain choir activities somehow; Wellbeing, with lockdown highlighting to many the importance of in-person choirs to their sense of wellbeing; Social Aspects, reflecting a sense of community and social identity; Musical Elements, whereby the value of musical experience shifted with the virtual models; Co-creation through Singing, with an overwhelming sense of loss of the embodied experience of singing together in real-time, which is unattainable from existing virtual choir models. The experiences, activities and reflections of choir singers during lockdown present a unique perspective to understand what makes group singing a meaningful experience for many. Co-creation through Singing needs further investigation to understand the impact of its absence on virtual choirs being able re-create the benefits of in-person choirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Europe's only globally critically endangered seabird, the Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus), is thought to have expanded its postbreeding range northwards into UK waters, though its at sea distribution there is not yet well understood. This study aims to identify environmental factors associated with the species' presence, map the probability of presence of the species across the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea, and estimate the number of individuals in this area. Location: The western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea. Methods: This study analyses strip transect data collected between 2013 and 2017 from vessel‐based surveys in the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea during the Balearic shearwater's postbreeding period. Using environmental data collected directly and from remote sensors both Generalized Additive Models and the Random Forest machine learning model were used to determine shearwater presence at different locations. Abundance was estimated separately using a density multiplication approach. Results: Both models indicated that oceanographic features were better predictors of shearwater presence than fish abundance. Seafloor aspect, sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, and maximum current speed were the most important predictors. The estimated number of Balearic shearwaters in the prediction area ranged from 652 birds in 2017 to 6,904 birds in 2014. Main conclusions: Areas with consistently high probabilities of shearwater presence were identified at the Celtic Sea front. Our estimates suggest that the study area in southwest Britain supports between 2% and 23% of the global population of Balearic shearwaters. Based on the timing of the surveys (mainly in October), it is probable that most of the sighted shearwaters were immatures. This study provides the most complete understanding of Balearic shearwater distribution in UK waters available to date, information that will help inform any future conservation actions concerning this endangered species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Understanding how environmental change affects ecosystem function delivery is of primary importance for fundamental and applied ecology. Current approaches focus on single environmental driver effects on communities, mediated by individual response traits. Data limitations present constraints in scaling up this approach to predict the impacts of multivariate environmental change on ecosystem functioning. We present a more holistic approach to determine ecosystem function resilience, using long‐term monitoring data to analyze the aggregate impact of multiple historic environmental drivers on species' population dynamics. By assessing covariation in population dynamics between pairs of species, we identify which species respond most synchronously to environmental change and allocate species into "response guilds." We then use "production functions" combining trait data to estimate the relative roles of species to ecosystem functions. We quantify the correlation between response guilds and production functions, assessing the resilience of ecosystem functioning to environmental change, with asynchronous dynamics of species in the same functional guild expected to lead to more stable ecosystem functioning. Testing this method using data for butterflies collected over four decades in the United Kingdom, we find three ecosystem functions (resource provisioning, wildflower pollination, and aesthetic cultural value) appear relatively robust, with functionally important species dispersed across response guilds, suggesting more stable ecosystem functioning. Additionally, by relating genetic distances to response guilds we assess the heritability of responses to environmental change. Our results suggest it may be feasible to infer population responses of butterflies to environmental change based on phylogeny—a useful insight for conservation management of rare species with limited population monitoring data. Our approach holds promise for overcoming the impasse in predicting the responses of ecosystem functions to environmental change. Quantifying co‐varying species' responses to multivariate environmental change should enable us to significantly advance our predictions of ecosystem function resilience and enable proactive ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere--land--ocean--wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling species distribution and abundance is important for many conservation applications, but it is typically performed using relatively coarse-scale environmental variables such as the area of broad land-cover types. Fine-scale environmental data capturing the most biologically relevant variables have the potential to improve these models. For example, field studies have demonstrated the importance of linear features, such as hedgerows, for multiple taxa, but the absence of large-scale datasets of their extent prevents their inclusion in large-scale modelling studies., We assessed whether a novel spatial dataset mapping linear and woody-linear features across the UK improves the performance of abundance models of 18 bird and 24 butterfly species across 3723 and 1547 UK monitoring sites, respectively., Although improvements in explanatory power were small, the inclusion of linear features data significantly improved model predictive performance for many species. For some species, the importance of linear features depended on landscape context, with greater importance in agricultural areas., Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates that a national-scale model of the extent and distribution of linear features improves predictions of farmland biodiversity. The ability to model spatial variability in the role of linear features such as hedgerows will be important in targeting agri-environment schemes to maximally deliver biodiversity benefits. Although this study focuses on farmland, data on the extent of different linear features are likely to improve species distribution and abundance models in a wide range of systems and also can potentially be used to assess habitat connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. 2. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). 3. This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. 4. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. 5. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe the development of two complementary priority species indicators (PSIs) to help the UK to report progress towards Aichi target 12 on the status of known threatened species. Based on species identified as national conservation priorities, the indicators present average changes in (i) 213 species for which trends in relative abundance are available from structured monitoring schemes, and (ii) 179 species for which trends in frequency of occurrence were modelled from data sets of unstructured biological records. Both indicators show substantial declines in priority species since 1970, of 67% and 40%, respectively, although the rate of decline in the relative abundance-based PSI may have lessened over the last five years (2007–2012). We discuss the biases and weaknesses of the indicators at present, and put forward suggestions as how these may be addressed, including through the development of a third PSI. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article traces chemometrics back to its origins in scientific computing in the 1960s. Its development is compared in other computational disciplines such as bioinformatics. The change in geographical origins of papers published in the core chemometrics literature is discussed. It is concluded that the level of core activities in this area has hardly changed over several decades, whilst there has been a significant expansion in non-expert users of packages over this period. It is estimated that around 2% of people encountering chemometrics in their research can be considered real experts. The problems of non-experts using chemometrics methods with limited knowledge of the statistical fundamentals are explored. The contrasting development of chemometrics compared with, for example, computational chemistry and bioinformatics, is interpreted in terms of the changing financial pressures on research over its key developmental phase, as illustrated by the change in academic finance in the UK over the past 50 years. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the UK, two treatment options are used for acute epileptic seizures in the community-rectal diazepam and unlicensed buccal midazolam. In practice, the former is rarely used, with unlicensed buccal midazolam being widely recommended and prescribed by physicians. In September 2011, Buccolam (licensed midazolam oromucosal solution) became the first medicine to receive a Paediatric-Use Marketing Authorization (PUMA) and it is indicated for the treatment of prolonged, acute, convulsive seizures by caregivers in the community for children (aged 6 months to <18 years) diagnosed with epilepsy. The approval process for a PUMA product differs from other marketing authorization processes and may be based upon small population subsets and may not, in some cases, require new safety or efficacy data to be generated; a similar situation to that seen for orphan drugs. This can lead to challenges when conducting economic evaluations. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of Buccolam for children with a diagnosis of epilepsy suffering prolonged, acute, convulsive seizures occurring in the UK community setting. Design and Perspective: A hybrid model was developed according to a UK payer perspective. The model included a time-to-event simulation for the frequency and location of occurrence of seizures, along with a decision-tree model that assessed the treatment pathway when a seizure occured. The model compared treatment with Buccolam with standard care in the community (95 % unlicensed buccal midazolam and 5 % rectal diazepam) or either treatment alone. The model was informed by data from a variety of sources, including clinical effectiveness estimates, and costs based on published UK data, using 2012-13 prices, where possible. To determine current practice and real-world effectiveness, a Delphi panel and a survey of parents of children with epilepsy were conducted. Results: Buccolam showed a reduction in costs of £2,939 compared with standard care, £14,269 compared with rectal diazepam alone and £886 compared with unlicensed buccal midazolam alone. Increases of 0.025, 0.082 and 0.013 quality-adjusted life-years, respectively, were also seen. Buccolam remained dominant across a range of scenario analyses. Conclusion: This model demonstrates the possibility of constructing a thorough economic case when trial or real-world data are not available. The results of the model show Buccolam to be cost saving compared with rectal diazepam due to a reduction in the need for ambulance callouts and hospital stays, and compared with unlicensed buccal midazolam, through reduced drug costs and wastage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short rotation coppice (SRC) willow is currently emerging as an important dedicated lignocellulosic energy crop in the UK. However, investigation into the variation between species and genotypes in their suitability for liquid transport biofuel processing has been limited. To address this, four traits relevant to biofuel processing (composition, enzymatic saccharification, response to pretreatment and projected ethanol yields) were studied in 35 genotypes of willow including Europe's leading SRC willow cultivars. Large, genotype-specific variation was observed for all four traits. Significant positive correlations were identified between the accessibility of glucan to enzymatic saccharification before and after pretreatment as well as glucose release and xylose release via acid hydrolysis during pretreatment. Of particular interest is that the lignin content of the biomass did not correlate with accessibility of glucan to enzymatic saccharification. The genotype-specific variations identified have implications for SRC willow breeding and for potential reductions in both the net energy expenditure and environmental impact of the lignocellulosic biofuel process chain. The large range of projected ethanol yields demonstrate the importance of feedstock selection based on an ideotype encompassing the performance of both field biomass growth and ease of conversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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1. The small tortoiseshell butterfly ( Aglais urticae L.) is considered to be a widespread and abundant generalist species in Northern Europe. However, it declined sharply in the U.K. between 2003 and 2008, coinciding with the arrival and spread of a parasitoid, Sturmia bella Meig. (Diptera: Tachinidae), which specialises on nymphalid butterflies. 2. Whether the decline in A. urticae is associated with the arrival of S. bella was investigated using data from a large-scale butterfly monitoring scheme, and by collecting larvae to assess parasitoid incidence and parasitism frequency. Similar data were compiled for a related butterfly ( Inachis io) which is also parasitised by S. bella but which is not declining. 3. Sturmia bella was recorded as far north as north Lincolnshire (53.53°N). Aglais urticae has declined significantly to the south of this latitude, but not to the north. 4. Sturmia bella was present in 26% and 15% of the larval groups of A. urticae and I. io, respectively, and now kills more individuals of A. urticae (but not I. io) than any native parasitoid. 5. Survival was 25-48% lower in batches of A. urticae larvae where S. bella was present, indicating that S. bella causes host mortality in addition to that caused by native parasitoids. 6. Our results suggest that S. bella may be playing a role in the recent decline of A. urticae. However, further research is needed to establish its effects relative to other potential drivers of trends in the abundance of this butterfly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Kingdom (UK) Government has national and international commitments to tackle the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. Biodiversity indicators are used to measure and communicate progress in meeting these commitments. From 2005 onwards, butterflies have been adopted as Governmental biodiversity indicators in England, Scotland and for the UK as a whole. The indicators are compiled using butterfly abundance data collected through the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, at a network of site established from 1976 onwards. The indicators show that butterfly numbers have fluctuated considerably from year-to-year, though analysis of the underlying smoothed multi-species trends for (habitat) 'specialist' species show significant long-term declines in each country since the 1970s. Trends in wider countryside 'generalist' species vary at the country-level from little or no overall change in Scotland and across the UK, to declines over selected years in England. Comparisons of changes in butterfly abundance before and after the 2010 target was set in 2002 suggest that the rate of decline at the UK-level is increasing for specialist species. In spite of large amounts of investment since 2000 to improve the habitat condition of protected areas, the trend for butterfly populations is no different in protected areas compared to elsewhere. Analysis by policy sector in England, shows that butterflies are declining rapidly in both forestry land and farmland, although in the latter habitat type, improvements are being seen on land entered into agri-environment schemes. We conclude by assessing the extent to which butterflies may represent broader biodiversity and help inform and evaluate conservation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many butterfly species that were historically common throughout the UK are thought to have declined due to land use intensification, whilst others have increased regionally due to climate change. Population trends in these species are inadequately assessed by current monitoring programmes: the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) mainly samples semi-natural habitats; coarse-scale distribution recording under-estimates declines in population abundance. We designed a scheme (the wider countryside butterfly survey-WCBS) to provide unbiased abundance trends for widespread butterfly species across the whole countryside. The WCBS has been developed over a 3 year pilot study, culminating in a UK-wide roll out in 2009. After testing a range of survey methods, the scheme involves visiting randomly selected 1-km squares at least twice during July-August and walking a linear transect route, counting the number of individual butterflies seen within 5 m. A method for volunteer recorders to collect abundance data on non-lepidopteran insects was also tested. The results of the first year of the WCBS and future plans for the scheme will be described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a model of butterfly abundance on transects in England. The model indicates a significant role for climate, but the direction of association is counter to expectation: butterfly population density is higher on sites with a cooler climate. However, the effect is highly heterogeneous, with one in five species displaying a net positive association. We use this model to project the population-level effects of climate warming for the year 2080, using a medium emissions scenario. The results suggest that most populations and species will decline markedly, but that the total number of butterflies will increase as communities become dominated by a few common species. In particular, Maniola jurtina is predicted to make up nearly half of all butterflies on UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) transects by 2080. These results contradict the accepted wisdom that most insect populations will grow as the climate becomes warmer. Indeed, our predictions contrast strongly with those derived from inter-annual variation in abundance, emphasizing that we lack a mechanistic understanding about the factors driving butterfly population dynamics over large spatial and temporal scales. Our study underscores the difficulty of predicting future population trends and reveals the naivety of simple space-for-time substitutions, which our projections share with species distribution modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species appear to be undergoing shifts in phenology, arising from climate change. To predict the direction and magnitude of future changes requires an understanding of how phenology depends on climatic variation. Species show large-scale spatial variation in phenology (affected by differentiation among populations) as well as variation in phenology from year-to-year at the same site (affected predominantly by local plasticity). Teasing apart spatial and temporal variation in phenology should allow improved predictions of phenology under climate change. This study is the first to quantify large-scale spatial and temporal variation in the entire emergence pattern of species, and to test the relationships found by predicting future data. We use data from up to 33 years of permanent transect records of butterflies in the United Kingdom to fit and test models for 15 butterfly species. We use generalized additive models to model spatial and temporal variation in the distribution of adult butterflies over the season, allowing us to capture changes in the timing of emergence peaks, relative sizes of peaks and/or number of peaks in a single analysis. We develop these models using data for 1973-2000, and then use them to predict phenologies from 2001 to 2006. For six of our study species, a model with only spatial variation in phenology is the best predictor of the future, implying that these species have limited plasticity. For the remaining nine species, the best predictions come from a model with both spatial and temporal variation in phenology; for four of these, growing degree-days have similar effects over space and time, implying high levels of plasticity. The results show that statistical phenology models can be used to predict phenology shifts in a second time period, suggesting that it should be feasible to project phenologies under climate change scenarios, at least over modest time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Short rotation coppice willow is a potential lignocellulosic feedstock in the United Kingdom and elsewhere; however, research on optimising willow specifically for bioethanol production has started developing only recently. We have used the feedstock Salix viminalis × Salix schwerinii cultivar 'Olof' in a three-month pot experiment with the aim of modifying cell wall composition and structure within the stem to the benefit of bioethanol production. Trees were treated for 26 or 43 days with tension wood induction and/or with an application of the cellulose synthesis inhibitor 2,6-dichlorobenzonitrile that is specific to secondary cell walls. Reaction wood (tension and opposite wood) was isolated from material that had received the 43-day tension wood induction treatment. Results: Glucan content, lignin content and enzymatically released glucose were assayed. All measured parameters were altered without loss of total stem biomass yield, indicating that enzymatic saccharification yield can be enhanced by both alterations to cell wall structure and alterations to absolute contents of either glucan or lignin. Conclusions: Final glucose yields can be improved by the induction of tension wood without a detrimental impact on biomass yield. The increase in glucan accessibility to cell wall degrading enzymes could help contribute to reducing the energy and environmental impacts of the lignocellulosic bioethanol production process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent changes in the seasonal timing (phenology) of familiar biological events have been one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. However, the lack of a standardized approach to analysing change has hampered assessment of consistency in such changes among different taxa and trophic levels and across freshwater, terrestrial and marine environments. We present a standardized assessment of 25 532 rates of phenological change for 726 UK terrestrial, freshwater and marine taxa. The majority of spring and summer events have advanced, and more rapidly than previously documented. Such consistency is indicative of shared large scale drivers. Furthermore, average rates of change have accelerated in a way that is consistent with observed warming trends. Less coherent patterns in some groups of organisms point to the agency of more local scale processes and multiple drivers. For the first time we show a broad scale signal of differential phenological change among trophic levels; across environments advances in timing were slowest for secondary consumers, thus heightening the potential risk of temporal mismatch in key trophic interactions. If current patterns and rates of phenological change are indicative of future trends, future climate warming may exacerbate trophic mismatching, further disrupting the functioning, persistence and resilience of many ecosystems and having a major impact on ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. The conservation of biodiversity depends upon both policy and regulatory frameworks. Here, we identify priority policy developments that would support conservation in the UK in the light of technological developments, changes in knowledge or environmental change. 2. A team of seven representatives from governmental organizations, 17 from non-governmental organizations and six academics provided an assessment of the priority issues. The representatives consulted widely and identified a long-list of 117 issues. 3. Following voting and discussion during a 2-day meeting, these were reduced to a final list of 25 issues and their potential policy options and research needs were identified. Many of the policies related to recent changes in approaches to conservation, such as increased interest in ecosystem services, adaptation to climate change and landscape ecology. 4. We anticipate that this paper will be useful for policy makers, nature conservation delivery agencies, the research community and conservation policy advocates. 5. Although many of the options have global significance, we suggest that other countries consider an equivalent exercise. We recommend that such an exercise be carried out in the UK at regular intervals, say every 5 years, to explore how biodiversity conservation can best be supported by linked policy development and research in a changing world. 6. Synthesis and applications. Opportunities for policy development were prioritized and for each of the top 25 we identified the current context, policy options and research questions. These largely addressed new issues relating to developing topics such as ecosystem services, landscape planning and nanotechnology. We envisage that this will largely be used by researchers wishing to make a contribution to potential policy debates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species are thought to have more restricted niches towards their range boundaries, although this has rarely been quantified systematically. We analysed transect data for 41 butterfly species along climatic gradients within Britain and show that 71% of species have broader niches at sites with milder winters. Shifts in habitat associations are considerable across most species’ ranges; averaged across all 41 species, we estimate that if 26% of individuals were associated with the favoured habitat on the species’ warmest transect, then 70% of individuals would be confined to this habitat on the species’ coldest transect. Species with more southerly distributions in Britain showed the greatest changes in their habitat associations. We conclude that geographic variation in realized niche breadth is common and relatively large, especially near range boundaries, and should be taken into account in conserving species under changing climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chalkhill Blue Polyommatus coridon is a widespread butterfly of lowland calcareous grassland in southern Britain and is considered a good indicator of habitat condition. Polyommatus coridon has been identified as a Species of Conservation Concern in the UK Biodiversity Action Plan due to a greater than 25% decline in range size since the 1950s, with losses due to the combined effects of habitat destruction, agricultural intensification and neglect. Analysis of annual butterfly monitoring data (transects) collected at 161 sites from 1981 to 2000 show a three-fold population recovery had occurred. The increases were at established sites, with no re-colonisations or range expansion detected. The 1980s population increase coincided with increases across the species range in stock and rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus grazing, as well as greater protection and management of sites through protected areas and nature reserves. During the 1990s agri-environment schemes were thought to be the main conservation and policy mechanism driving the favourable conservation status of P. coridon, by facilitating appropriate habitat restoration and management. Weather played a part in the species recovery, with warm, but wet summers associated with increases in abundance. The research provides strong evidence of an important conservation success with the UK Biodiversity Action Plan, with implications for other specialist biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the abundance and distribution of individual species have been widely documented in Britain and other countries in recent decades, but little has been done to determine changes in community composition over broad geographic areas. Here, we studied species turnover in 51 butterfly assemblages in Britain since 1976, examining extinction and colonisation events together with variation in the abundances of the species. We showed that the species turnover that occurred over 20 years in Britain was associated with colonisation and extinction events and also with variability in the abundance of the species. These changes in community composition differed according to the habitat requirements of the species and their previous distributions, being more evident for habitat specialists and for southerly distributed species. Colonising species often became abundant components of the communities they joined, although this was more evident for generalist than for specialist species. The abundance of species following their arrival, increased with time since colonisation. Species turnover associated with southerly species expanding northwards is consistent with being a response to climate change. The results suggest that climate- and habitat-driven changes in the identity and abundance of species within communities are widespread, and probably ubiquitous. Similar changes are likely to be occurring in other groups of organisms that are similarly undertaking major range shifts associated with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Horizon scanning is an essential tool for environmental scientists if they are to contribute to the evidence base for Government, its agencies and other decision makers to devise and implement environmental policies. The implication of not foreseeing issues that are foreseeable is illustrated by the contentious responses to genetically modified herbicide-tolerant crops in the UK, and by challenges surrounding biofuels, foot and mouth disease, avian influenza and climate change. 2. A total of 35 representatives from organizations involved in environmental policy, academia, scientific journalism and horizon scanning were asked to use wide consultation to identify the future novel or step changes in threats to, and opportunities for, biodiversity that might arise in the UK up to 2050, but that had not been important in the recent past. At least 452 people were consulted. 3. Cases for 195 submitted issues were distributed to all participants for comments and additions. All issues were scored (probability, hazard, novelty and overall score) prior to a 2-day workshop. Shortlisting to 41 issues and then the final 25 issues, together with refinement of these issues, took place at the workshop during another two rounds of discussion and scoring. 4. We provide summaries of the 25 shortlisted issues and outline the research needs. 5. We suggest that horizon scanning incorporating wide consultation with providers and users of environmental science is used by environmental policy makers and researchers. This can be used to identify gaps in knowledge and policy, and to identify future key issues for biodiversity, including those arising from outside the domains of ecology and biodiversity. 6. Synthesis and applications. Horizon scanning can be used by environmental policy makers and researchers to identify gaps in knowledge and policy. Drawing on the experience, expertise and research of policy advisors, academics and journalists, this exercise helps set the agenda for policy, practice and research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK Government has set targets for biodiversity conservation in England based on several indicators, including the status of protected areas [e.g. Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs)]. Specifically, the Government aims to achieve favourable condition [defined by Common Standards Monitoring (CSM)] on 95% by area of SSSIs by 2010. SSSIs are important for threatened butterflies and management to achieve favourable condition will play a key role in determining future population levels of these high-profile insects. Because only notified features of SSSIs are considered within CSM, we investigated the level of notification for three threatened butterflies. We found that these species were notified at only 15-33% of SSSIs where they occurred; though most site managers did manage for them under broader site conservation objectives. We investigated the relationship between SSSI condition status and population trend for eight butterfly species of conservation concern to assess the benefit to butterflies of sites attaining favourable condition status. The majority (80%) of population trends on SSSIs in favourable condition were positive, suggesting an overall beneficial impact of SSSI management. However, four of the eight species maintained lower populations at favourable condition SSSIs than at sites in one of the unfavourable condition categories. We suggest that current condition assessment based chiefly on notified vegetation communities lacks the sensitivity to identify the complex habitat conditions for these (mosaic) species. As butterflies are good indictors for a wide range of invertebrates, many species requiring fine-scale habitat heterogeneity may be at risk from the Government's target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Butterflies are one of the few insect groups that can be monitored effectively and have the potential to develop national and Europe-wide trends in abundance. 2. For 20 widespread butterfly species, we assess the relative efficiency of reduced-effort schemes compared to the existing design and estimate the number of sites required to detect changes of given magnitudes over specified periods of time. 3. A scheme restricted to three counts during July and August requires twice as many monitored sites on average to achieve comparable precision to the existing 26-week scheme in the United Kingdom. Such a scheme requires 430 monitoring sites on average to achieve 80% power (5% significance level) for detecting a 25% decline in abundance over 10 years. 4. Such a reduced-effort scheme may also mean that volunteers are more willing to record in areas where they are likely to see only a few individuals of a few common species (such as on intensively farmed areas). This could potentially help to ensure that butterfly monitoring schemes achieve a more even geographical coverage and less of a bias towards areas rich in butterflies. 5. Synthesis and applications. Schemes with few sampling visits per year are cost-effective for expanding butterfly monitoring across Europe, and can be applied to national monitoring programmes and lead to effective assessment of continent-wide trends in populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The provision of palliative care in the UK has traditionally focused on people with cancer. People who are elderly, live in rural areas or have diagnoses other than cancer often have difficulty accessing palliative care services. Community hospitals could be important for those groups currently under-served. A literature review was conducted to determine the role played by community hospitals in the provision of palliative care in the UK. Papers were identified using a keyword search of six electronic databases and hand search of five journals. Fifteen papers were identified according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. Findings indicate that many community hospitals in the UK already have the resources to counter inequalities in access to general palliative care. Much of the evidence uses quantitative methods based on small or non-representative samples and retrospective data collection approaches. Insufficient information about the populations involved meant that findings could not be fully interpreted. More prospective research using qualitative methods involving patients, carers and nurses is required to fully understand the complexities of providing palliative care in this setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Evidence-based policy requires researchers to provide the answers to ecological questions that are of interest to policy makers. To find out what those questions are in the UK, representatives from 28 organizations involved in policy, together with scientists from 10 academic institutions, were asked to generate a list of questions from their organizations. 2. During a 2-day workshop the initial list of 1003 questions generated from consulting at least 654 policy makers and academics was used as a basis for generating a short list of 100 questions of significant policy relevance. Short-listing was decided on the basis of the preferences of the representatives from the policy-led organizations. 3. The areas covered included most major issues of environmental concern in the UK, including agriculture, marine fisheries, climate change, ecosystem function and land management. 4. The most striking outcome was the preference for general questions rather than narrow ones. The reason is that policy is driven by broad issues rather than specific ones. In contrast, scientists are frequently best equipped to answer specific questions. This means that it may be necessary to extract the underpinning specific question before researchers can proceed. 5. Synthesis and applications. Greater communication between policy makers and scientists is required in order to ensure that applied ecologists are dealing with issues in a way that can feed into policy. It is particularly important that applied ecologists emphasize the generic value of their work wherever possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electronic Patient Records systems configured into large enterprise models have become the assumed best route forward. In England, as in several other countries, this has expanded to a major meta-enterprise procurement programme. However, concerns are raised that such systems lack user ownership, and experience from other sectors shows difficulties with large enterprise systems. At a time of great change and once again shifting organizations, is this move simply building large and ponderous edifices with unstable materials? Latest software engineering research is now demonstrating the potential of an alternative model, enabling trusted information brokers to search out in real time at point of use data held in registered local and departmental systems. If successful, this could enable a new and less cumbersome paradigm. The data could move where needed whatever the service configuration. A concept demonstrator has been built set in the context of health and social care in England. It is important for all technological support to the health sector to be reviewed as new technologies emerge so as to identify and exploit new opportunities, and the results of this 3 year project show that the health record information broker route merits further investigative research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stroke is one of the major causes of disability in the United Kingdom and considerable numbers of stroke survivors need help and support from family carers. The sudden and unexpected nature of stroke means that there is very little time for family members to prepare for a caring role. This paper draws on data from 37 interviews with 14 new carers of stroke survivors and highlights the uncertainty and lack of confidence that family members experience in adopting a caring role. During the initial period following the stroke carers engage in a number of different 'seeking' activities in order to try and ensure that they feel competent, confident and safe to provide care and that they understand the likely future demands they may face. Rather than being facilitated by staff, carers' efforts often go unnoticed or are overlooked, resulting in carers feeling that they are 'going it alone'. Staff need to be more aware of carers' 'seeking' behaviour and actively encourage the formation of partnerships with family members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The approach to assess exposure to ochratoxin A from the diet by the analysis of human plasma and urine samples has been developed. Composite duplicate diet samples from 50 individuals and corresponding plasma and urine samples were obtained over 30 days. Samples were analysed using sensitive methods capable of measuring ochratoxin A at 0.001ng g[sup -1] in food, 0.1ng ml[sup -1] in plasma and 0.01ng ml[sup -1] in urine. Analysis of the foods indicated ochratoxin A levels contributing to an average intake in the range 0.26-3.54ng kg[sup -1] bw day[sup -1] over the 30 days. Ochratoxin A was found in all plasma samples and in 46 urine samples. The correlation between the plasma ochratoxin A levels and ochratoxin A consumption was not significant (95% confidence limit). However, a significant correlation was found between ochratoxin A consumption and the urine ochratoxin A concentration expressed as the total amount excreted. This new work offers the possibility of using ochratoxin A in urine as a simple and reliable biomarker to estimate exposure to this mycotoxin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the impact of deer grazing on butterflies in woodlands in Great Britain. Local availability of larval food-plants or nectar sources; Changes in habitat structure and management; Natural regeneration.

A survey of the level of 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol (3-MCPD) in soy sauces and similar products available in the UK is reported. The survey was carried out by the Joint Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food/Department of Health Food Safety and Standards Group (JFSSG) to check for compliance with the Food Advisory Committee's (FAC) recommended limit for 3-MCPD of 0.01mg/kg following reports that soy sauces in several European countries had been found to contain high levels (up to 124mg/kg) of 3-MCPD. Forty samples of soy sauce and similar products purchased from retail outlets were analysed using a GC-MS procedure which had been formally validated by an earlier collaborative trial. 3-MCPD was undetectable in 21 (52%) of samples analysed in the survey, with a further five samples containing very low levels of between 0.01 and 0.02mg/kg. Five samples (13%) contained 3-MCPD at levels in the range 0.020-1mg/kg while nine samples (23%) were found to contain 3-MCPD at levels greater than 1mg/kg, with the highest level being 30.5mg/kg. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The UK was one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. A strict lockdown from early 2021 combined with an aggressive vaccination programme enabled a gradual easing of lockdown measures to be introduced whilst both deaths and reported case numbers reduced to less than 3% of their peak. The emergence of the Delta variant in April 2021 has reversed this trend, and the UK is once again experiencing surging cases, albeit with reduced average severity due to the success of the vaccination rollout. This study presents the results of a modelling exercise which simulates the progression of the pandemic in the UK through projection of daily case numbers as lockdown lifts. Methods: A simulation model based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered structure was built. A timeline of UK lockdown measures was used to simulate the changing restrictions. The model was tailored for the UK, with some values set based on research and others obtained through calibration against 16 months of historical data. Results: The model projects that if lockdown restrictions are lifted in July 2021, UK COVID-19 cases will peak at hundreds of thousands daily in most viable scenarios, reducing in late 2021 as immunity acquired through both vaccination and infection reduces the susceptible population percentage. Further lockdown measures can be used to reduce daily cases. Other than the ever-present threat of the emergence of new variants, the most significant unknown factors affecting the profile of the pandemic in the UK are the length and strength of immunity, with daily peak cases over 50% higher if immunity lasts 8 months compared to 12 months. Another significant factor is the percentage of unreported cases. The reduced case severity associated with vaccination may lead to a higher proportion of unreported mild or asymptomatic cases, meaning that unmanaged infections resulting from unknown cases will continue to be a major source of infection. Conclusions: Further research into the length and strength of both recovered and vaccinated COVID-19 immunity is critical to delivering more accurate projections from models, thus enabling more finely tuned policy decisions. The model presented in this article, whilst by no means perfect, aims to contribute to greater transparency of the modelling process, which can only increase trust between policy makers, journalists and the general public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theory-practice relationship and the use of communication and interpersonal skills in nursing have been recurrently identified as issues causing concern. Four research questions form the basis of this small-scale exploratory study investigating the views of nurse teachers, mentors and students into the theory-practice relationship with regard to the communication and interpersonal skills theme of the Project 2000 common foundation programme (CFP) for British nursing students. Hierarchical focusing, involving individual interviews with teachers and mentors and small-group interviews with students, was undertaken. Volunteer sampling was used. Qualitative data analysis was undertaken using content analysis. Results are summarized with regard to each main research question. There was little consensus of opinion amongst participants, and the nature of the theory-practice relationship with regard to the communication and interpersonal skills theme for the CFP remains unclear. However, there was agreement that communication is fundamental to nursing and that the socialization process strongly influences the development of communication and interpersonal skills. There appears to be a reliance on mentors to assess student progress and determine whether they have knowledge underpinning practice. Classroom teaching was recognized as idealistic but the divisions in participants' opinions led to difficulty in determining whether a theory-practice gap actually exists. The main influences on the theory-practice relationship were the mentor's knowledge of the curriculum and mentoring system, the short amount of time spent in each placement and relationships between teachers, mentors and students. Recommendations include the need to ensure the reliability and validity of progressive assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents the issues related to medicine in Great Britain. Importance of clinical practice for patients with serious chronic disease; Responsibility of the National Health Service in medical care; Relevance of surgical consultation following ultrasonic diagnosis.

The article focuses on the review of the evidence, related to the interventions, approaches and services to reduce offending for women offenders. Its focus on the low involvement of women in criminality and shorter sentences, as a challenging aspect of implementing and researching correctional interventions for this category group in Great Britain.

The article presents the annual report by National Offender Management Services (NOMS) that offers details on offender equalities in Great Britain. Statistics of increase in prison population especially the blacks and minority ethnics (BME). Also noted are incidents that occur in prison like self harm in women and men in prison. The article also talks about probation supervision of offenders in communities.

The article reviews the report "A Joint Inspection of Life Sentence Prisoners by HMI Probation and HMI Prisons."