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This study is centered around the COVID-19 pandemic which has posed a global health concern for over three years. It emphasizes the importance of effectively utilizing epidemic simulation models for informed decision-making concerning epidemic control. The challenge lies in appropriately choosing, adapting, and interpreting these models. The research constructs three statistical machine learning models to predict the spread of COVID-19 in specific regions and evaluates their performance using real COVID-19 incidence data. The paper presents short-term (3, 7, 14, 21, and 30 days) forecasts of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality for Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Ukraine. The precision of each model was scrutinized based on the type of input data used. Recommendations are provided on how various data sources can enhance the interpretation quality of machine learning models predicting infectious disease dynamics. The initial findings suggest the need for the comprehensive utilization of all available data, favoring cumulative data during holiday-rich periods and daily data otherwise. To minimize the absolute error, databases should be compiled using daily morbidity and mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of most developing countries, the implementation of industrial policy faces significant challenges related to capacity, access to information, and governance limitations. This situation accounts for the absence of widely recognised success stories – instances where government agencies and policy instruments have an established track record of effectively pursuing national objectives within the realm of industrial policy. This highlights a significant gap in our understanding about which industrial policy tools can be effective in countries grappling with broader deficiencies in their national accountability systems. In this article, we delve into the state support programmes initiated by Russia’s Industrial Development Fund (IDF) since 2014. These programmes aim to promote import substitution by providing industrial enterprises with low-interest rate loans. Notably, the IDF programmes differ significantly from most other industrial policy instruments employed by the Russian government in terms of their design, implementation principles, and outcomes. Between 2014 and 2017, the implementation of the IDF’s programmes produced statistically significant results, fostering the growth of sales for the supported enterprises. Within our article, we shed light on the institutional features that contributed to the effectiveness of the programmes and enabled the IDF to maintain the integrity of their procedures for selecting beneficiaries and supporting them throughout project implementation. Our analysis has identified a set of institutional arrangements that can maximise the positive impacts of state support programmes while minimising the respective risks. Consequently, we believe that the successful Russian experience in administering the programmes for direct state support holds substantial value for a wide range of organisations compelled to implement government support programmes under less-than-ideal institutional conditions. Furthermore, the emergence of more effective industrial policy tools in Russia, such as the IDF, in the mid-2010s, may partially explain the increased resilience of the Russian economy in the face of large-scale international sanctions imposed in 2022 due to its war in Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19-related crisis had a strong negative effect on the world tourism industry, as has the current military conflict in Ukraine. However, with crises come opportunities as this research shows in the case of the Russian tourism industry. The 2020 crisis created the preconditions and opportunities to change the tourism industry's historically distorted outward-oriented structure and promote regional development through domestic tourism. Active communications between the government and business during the pandemic helped reduce uncertainty for firms and design and implement appropriate governmental sectoral policies. The demand for such policies increased after large-scale international sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022. However, the allocation of large federal budget financial resources to support the industry also creates risks of opportunistic behaviour. The tourism industry's development in Russia will depend on the government's ability to resist pressure from rent-seeking interest groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has become the largest pandemic in recent history to sweep the world. This study is devoted to developing and investigating three models of the COVID-19 epidemic process based on statistical machine learning and the evaluation of the results of their forecasting. The models developed are based on Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Gradient Boosting methods. The models were studied for the adequacy and accuracy of predictive incidence for 3, 7, 10, 14, 21, and 30 days. The study used data on new cases of COVID-19 in Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Ukraine. These countries are selected because they have different dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic process, and their governments have applied various control measures to contain the pandemic. The simulation results showed sufficient accuracy for practical use in the K-Nearest Neighbors and Gradient Boosting models. Public health agencies can use the models and their predictions to address various pandemic containment challenges. Such challenges are investigated depending on the duration of the constructed forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An article provides information about buds organogenesis in plants of columnar apple cultivars in the Forest-Steppe of Ukraine (Kyiv), which allows to establish the features of this process in complex fruit formations of different ages, and their productivity and longevity. We recommend studying of apple trees productivity in the process of its formation by analyzing of rudimentary organs formation and their consistent development into vegetative and generative organs, which are elements of productivity. Studies of organogenesis different-age fruit formations of columnar apple cultivars were conducted in the northern part of the Forest-Steppe of Ukraine during 2016–2020. It was established that separate age sections of columnar apple trees trunk formed different initial productivity potential. In plants of all studied varieties and age groups, the laying of generative buds, the implementation of reproductive elements in V–IX and X–XI stages of organogenesis were more effective in older age areas of the trunk. Complex fruit formations, regardless of the trunk age where they are placed, form a high potential for productivity, which is effectively realized. The dependence of the formation and productivity potential realization on the stages of organogenesis and meteorological factors is established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has impacted all areas of human activity around the world. Modern society has not faced such a challenge. Affordable travel and flights between continents allowed the virus to rapidly spread to all corners of the world. An effective tool for the development of anti-epidemic measures is mathematical modeling. The paper proposes a simulation model of COVID-19 propagation based on an agent-based approach. The case of the spread of the epidemic process before vaccination is considered. To verify the model, we used the data of official statistics on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine, provided by the Center for Public Health of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. The constructed model makes it possible to identify the factors influencing the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in a certain area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article is analyzed own field data of the authors and scientific publications on the wintering of Anserinae in the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine in 1900–2017, but the main data was obtained in frame of international mid-winter counts (IWC) in 2005–2017. It was found that 9 species of Anserinae occur in this region during the different seasons of the year: Anser anser — nesting, wintering and migrating; Rufibrenta ruficollis, A. albifrons, A. erythropus, A. fabalis — migrating and wintering; Branta canadensis, Branta leucopsis, Branta bernicla, Chen caerulescens — vagrant or birds which flew away from captivity (zoo etc.). Eulabeia indica — is possible vagrant species. The most numerous wintering species is A. albifrons, common — Rufibrenta ruficollis, not numerous — Anser anser, the other species are not met annually and registered in a very small number. There was almost tenfold drop in number of wintering geese in the Azov-Black Sea region of Ukraine during the period of counts. The main reasons of such reducing of geese amount are the followwing: weather and climate conditions, changes in the forage acessibility, hunting and poaching pressure, poisoning as a result of deratization of agricultural lands, and from 2014 — the militarization of the Syvash area and stop of water supplying of Crimea through the North Crimean channell. It is likely that the factors mentioned above led to relocating of wintering areas of Anserinae, and resulted in decreasing of their amount in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main goal of the current research includes studying the biological signal field (BSF) characteristics of the wolf (Canis lupus lupus Linnaeus, 1758) at different values of anthropogenic load on territories wiThconservation (Białowieża National park (Poland)) and hunting status of the species (Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (Ukraine)). The research in Białowieża Primeval Forest was conducted in two stages: study of the BSF characteristics of the wolf and finding correlation between data acquired from Ukraine (the first stage), and over-time study of intensity of the biological signal field (the second stage). In result of the first stage, there was no significant dependence on the characteristics of the territory and the differences between the behavior of wolves in the Białowieża Primeval Forest (conservation status of the species) and the Exclusion Zone (game status). During the second stage it was determined that provided variance of the intensity between territory groups was insufficient, the degree of significance to animals of area categories varied wiThthe stages of the pack's life. It was found that the main factors which govern the character of wolf activity are not the level of the anthropic load and hunting pressure, but periods of the life cycle and spatial structure of groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the mathematical model for diphasic multicomponent filtration of mixed hydrocarbons, a boundary problem has been composed and solved for optimizing flowrate distribution among wells to maximize the condensate recovery from natural gas-condensate fields (GCFs). In contrast to the described in science literature prototypes, the boundary problem takes into account the phase transformation for individual components of a hydrocarbon mixture. An algorithm for efficient development of natural GCFs has been elaborated, in which the flowrate limitations of individual wells as well as their shutoffs for remedial maintenance are considered. The suggested model was validated on the experimental data from the Kotelevskoye GCF (Ukraine). Over 12% increase in condensate recovery was demonstrated to be possible, if the best performance had been achieved. This can be arranged by reducing intrastratal flows and preventing the consequent extra formation of condensate (in the depletion mode) or premature «dry gas» breakthrough in producing wells (in the cycling mode). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal variation of nitrate concentrations has been studied in 4 rivers and 21 springs of the transboundary (Russia/Ukraine) Seversky Donets watershed in eastern regions of Ukraine – Kharkiv, Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Samples have been taken from 13 sites on the Lopan, Udy, Oskol and Seversky Donets rivers together with springs on left and right river banks between August 2013 and May 2014 and analysed on major ions and nitrates. Water temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, redox potential have been measured on site. The results showed high spatial and temporal variability of nitrate concentration in both surface and groundwater. The hydrogeological settings, seasonal trends and human impact were major factors influencing nitrates mobility and accumulation in contaminated springs, which contributed to surface water pollution. Mean nitrate concentrations were 26.7 mg L − 1 (C.V. = 92%) in springs and 6.9 mg L − 1 (C.V. = 114%) in rivers. The nitrate fluxes from springs to rivers were estimated at ca. 3 t km − 2 annually. About 1/5 of spring water samples were characterized with higher nitrate concentrations than limits recommended by WHO and National Drinking Water Standards (Ukraine). Springs have been classified according to nitrate concentration and enrichment as high, moderate and low contaminated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Findings of Entomopathogenic Nematodes (Rhabditida, Steinernematidae) in Nature Reserves in-Ukraine. Yakovlev, Ye. B., Kharchenko, V. A., Mráček, Z. - Five strains of Steinernema Travassos, 1927 were isolated by live baiting method with last instar larvae of Tenebrio molitor Linnaeus, 1758 from the reserves of some central and southern oblasts of Ukraine and the Crimean AR. Entomopathogenic nematodes were recovered from 5 of 196 (2.6 %) soil samples collected in 2010. Isolated nematodes were identified using a combination of molecular (ITS1-5.8S-ITS2 rDNA gene sequencing) and morphological techniques. Four of the isolated strains were recognized as S. feltiae (Filipjev, 1934), one as S. arenarium (Artyukhovsky, 1967). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the Russian Federation's foreign policy vis-à-vis Belarus and Ukraine during the presidencies of Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. It addresses the question: Which specific factors influenced Russian foreign policy towards the aforementioned European states? The goals of the study are to illuminate these factors and to compare Russian foreign policy at the time of Yeltsin's administration with that during Putin's presidency. Russo-Ukrainian and Russo-Belarusian relations are analyzed using the method of structured focused comparison. The research examines presidential speeches, decision-makers' memoirs, decisions or the absence thereof, and official declarations of the Russian government towards Ukraine and Belarus, as well as official agreements and empirical reality that exemplify the implementation of Russia's foreign policy. The empirical analysis reveals that geopolitical considerations, threat perception, interest groups, and decision-makers' perception of the past influenced the formation of Russia's foreign policy. Perception of the past, however, is fundamental to the understanding of this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Primary health care (PHC) is the most important element of health system. The development of PHC based on family medicine will allow to significantly improve the demographic situation, to achieve equitable distribution and efficient use of budget funds. However , implementation of general clinical practice/family medicine (GPFM) is constrained by lacking resources and imperfect system of training health professionals, incompleteness of legal and financial frameworks, information support, and mechanisms of interaction between general practice and other health services. The aim of this study was to analyze the legal aspects of the implementation of the family medical practice in Ukraine. METHODS: Thirty four regulatory documents directly related to PHC in Ukraine on the basis of family medicine for the period from 1995 to 2007 were found and analyzed. Among these four decrees of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and 30 orders of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine were found. RESULTS: Regulatory framework for introduction of family medicine is being enhanced actively. However , it still lacks regulations of relationship between doctors of GPFM and other specialists defining their responsibilities; issues of differential allocation of funds across the levels of health care with the focus on the PHC financing; providing adequate financing, remuneration for labour and motivation to professionals working in "general practice/family medicine"; providing the necessary powers for private family doctors; facilitating the participation of NGOs in the processes of the sector administration; ensuring proper assessment and quality control of PHC based on family medicine. CONCLUSION: Further development and improvement of the legal framework is needed to speed up the PHC reform based on family medicine and continued implementation of general practice/family medicine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: In Ukraine, implementation of family practice is declared to be a priority. Development of primary health care on the basis of family practice is defined by legislative acts. Nevertheless, family clinical practice is neglected. Funds are spent on expensive inpatient treatment, while cheap primary health care is forgotten. Hospitals and outpatient clinics, ambulance cars are used to provide everyday medical care. Approximately one third of hospital patients should get out-patient treatment. The aim of this study was to analyze the functioning of the national system of primary health care based on family medicine, to identify the main trends of its development and current problems. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study is exploratory. Eight semi-structured interviews with family doctors from Kyiv city and Kyiv region were conducted with "snowball" sampling. The data was analyzed through qualitative content analysis of the content of the interviews. RESULTS: All respondents expressed a positive attitude to the implementation of family medicine. They emphasized that the development of family medicine is economically feasible and socially effective. Most respondents pointed out that not enough time is devoted to the training of family doctors. None of the respondents provides gynecological care and manages pregnancies. Family doctors are not interested in independent treatment of patients, taking responsibility for them, and thus expanding their skills and enriching their experience. All respondents stated that the current system of family practice financing and remuneration is not up-to-date and must be changed. CONCLUSION: The interviewed family practitioners believe that the implementation of family clinical practice in health care institutions is appropriate for improvements of the health care system. Meeting the task of family medicine development is possible, provided that the approach to financing of the sector , specialist training and incentives system is changed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, sources of recharge and contamination in urban groundwater and in groundwater underneath a forest in the same aquifer were determined and compared. Data on hydro-chemical parameters and stable isotopes of water were collected in urban and forest springs in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, over a period of 12 months. Groundwater transit time and precipitation contribution were calculated using hydrogeological data and stable isotopes of water to delineate groundwater recharge conditions. Hydro-chemical data, stable isotopes and emerging contaminants were used to trace anthropogenic groundwater recharge and approximate sewage and tap water contributions to the aquifer. The results indicated that each spring had unique isotopic signatures that could be explained by recharge conditions, groundwater residence time, and specific mixing patterns with sewage and water leaks. Elevated nitrate content, stable isotopes of nitrate, and the presence of emerging pollutants (mainly illicit drugs) in most of the urban springs confirmed mixing of urban groundwater with sewage leaks. These leaks amounted to up to 25% of total recharge and exhibited seasonal variations in some springs. Overall, the results show that urban groundwater receives variable seasonal contributions of anthropogenic components that increase the risk to the environment and human health, and reduce its usability for drinking water production. The multi-tracing approach presented can be useful for other cities worldwide that have similar problems of poor water management and inadequate sewage and water supply infrastructure. Image 1 • Urban groundwater quality is highly impacted by sewage inputs. • Stable isotopes and emerging contaminants traced sewage leakages to groundwater. • Sewage contribution and nitrate content varied seasonally in urban groundwater. • Natural δ18O extremes in precipitation reflected estimated groundwater transit time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The HIV-1 subtype A epidemic affecting injecting drug users (IDU) in former Soviet Union (FSU) countries started dramatically in Odessa, southern Ukraine, in 1995, and is caused by a variant of monophyletic origin, often designated IDU-A. We phylogenetically analyzed one near full-length genome and two partial sequences of three HIV-1 subtype A viruses collected in St. Petersburg, Russia, heterosexually transmitted in 1992-1994. The sequences branched basally to the IDU-A clade, together with eight viruses from Odessa collected in 1993, all presumably acquired heterosexually, and two viruses from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Of all other FSU sequences in databases, only those from three recently collected viruses, one from Ukraine and two from northwestern Russia, at least one of them acquired heterosexually, branched basally to the IDU-A cluster. The results indicate that the FSU IDU-A variant derives from a strain that initially propagated heterosexually in Ukraine and originated in central Africa.