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Our objective is to assess the regional and temporal dependences of the baseline cases contributing to thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed in childhood or during adolescence in Belarus and Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. Data are analysed for Kyiv and Sevastopol City and the 25 oblasts (regions) in Ukraine, and for Minsk and Gomel City and the 6 oblasts in Belarus. Average thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for every birth year in the period from 1968 to 1985. Case data pertain to people who underwent surgical removal of thyroid cancers during the period 1986 to 2001 and who were allocated to their place of residence at the time of the accident. The 35 oblasts/cities were subdivided into an upper, middle and lower group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. Poisson regressions were performed to estimate age, time and gender dependences of the baseline incidence rates in the three groups. The majority of oblasts/cities with high average doses and the majority of Belarusian oblasts/cities belong to the upper group of baseline thyroid cancer incidence. The baseline in the upper group is estimated to be larger than in the middle group by a factor of 2.3, and by a factor of 4.0 when compared to the lower group. The baseline incidence increases with age and with time since exposure. Estimated baseline incidence rates were found to increase from 1988 to 1999 by factors of three and two for the upper and the two lower groups respectively. The estimated thyroid cancer incidence rates in Belarus and Ukraine, and their dependences on gender and age, are consistent with observed rates found in the larger cancer registries of other countries. In conclusion, the baseline cases are found to contribute about 70% to the thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine, and about 40% to the incidence in Belarus.

The purpose of the present study was to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data were analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the (131)I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968-1985 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990-2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy; for the quadratic coefficient, it was -0.145 (95% CI: -0.171; -0.119) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy(2). The EAR was found to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreased with age at exposure and increased with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response was 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy(-1); for the quadratic coefficient, it was -1.03 (95% CI: -1.46; -0.60) Gy(-2). The ERR was found to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreased strongly with age at exposure. Both EAR and ERR were higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures.

Large amounts of radioiodines were released into the atmosphere during the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986. In order to investigate whether the thyroid cancers observed among children in Belarus could have been caused by radiation exposures from the Chernobyl accident, a team of Belarusian, Russian, and American scientists conducted a case-control study to compare cases and controls according to estimated thyroid dose. The primary purpose of this paper is to present detailed information on the estimated thyroid doses, due to intakes of 131I, that were used in the case-control study. The range of the 131I thyroid doses among the 107 cases and the 214 controls was found to extend from 0.00002 to 4.3 Gy, with medians of approximately 0.2 Gy for the cases and 0.07 Gy for the controls. In addition, the thyroid doses resulting from the intakes of short-lived radioiodines (132I, 133I, and 135I) and radiotelluriums (131mTe and 132Te) were estimated and compared to the doses from 131I. The ratios of the estimated thyroid doses from the short-lived radionuclides and from I for the cases and the controls range from 0.003 to 0.1, with median values of approximately 0.02 for both cases and controls.

Following the Chernobyl accident, radioactive fission products, including (131)I and (137)Cs, were deposited in Bryansk Oblast in Russia. Intakes of radioiodines, mainly (131)I in milk, were the principal sources of radiation doses to thyroids of residents of the contaminated areas, but those radionuclides decayed before detailed contamination surveys could be performed. As a result, (137)Cs deposition density is the primary measure of the contamination due to the accident and there are relatively few measurements of the ratio of (131)I to (137)Cs in vegetation or soil samples from this area. Although many measurements of radiation emitted from the necks of residents were performed and used to estimate thyroidal (131)I activities and thyroid doses, such data are not available for all subjects. The semi-empirical model was selected to provide a dose calculation method to be applied uniformly to cases and controls in the study. The model was developed using dose estimates from direct measurements of (131)I in adult thyroids, and relates settlement average thyroid doses to (137)Cs contamination levels and ratios of (131)I to (137)Cs. This model is useful for areas where thyroid monitoring was not performed and can be used to estimate doses to exposed individuals. For application to children in this study, adjustment factors are used to address differences in age-dependent intake rates and thyroid dosimetry. Other individual dietary factors and sources (private/public) of milk consumed are reflected in the dose estimates. Countermeasures that reduced thyroid dose, such as cessation of milk consumption and intake of stable iodine, are also considered for each subject. The necessary personal information of subjects was obtained by interview, most frequently of their mothers, using a questionnaire developed for the study. Uncertainties in thyroid dose, estimated using Monte Carlo techniques, are presented for reference conditions. Thyroid dose estimates for individual children made using the semi-empirical model and questionnaire data compare reasonably well with dose estimates made for 19 children whose thyroid burdens of (131)I were measured from May to June 1986.

The Chernobyl accident in April 1986 resulted in widespread contamination of the environment with radioactive materials, including (131)I and other radioiodines. This environmental contamination led to substantial radiation doses in the thyroids of many inhabitants of the Republic of Belarus. The reconstruction of thyroid doses received by Belarussians is based primarily on exposure rates measured against the neck of more than 200,000 people in the more contaminated territories; these measurements were carried out within a few weeks after the accident and before the decay of (131)I to negligible levels. Preliminary estimates of thyroid dose have been divided into 3 classes: Class 1 ("measured" doses), Class 2 (doses "derived by affinity"), and Class 3 ("empirically-derived" doses). Class 1 doses are estimated directly from the measured thyroidal (131)I content of the person considered, plus information on lifestyle and dietary habits. Such estimates are available for about 130,000 individuals from the contaminated areas of the Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts and from the city of Minsk. Maximum individual doses are estimated to range up to about 60 Gy. For every village with a sufficient number of residents with Class 1 doses, individual thyroid dose distributions are determined for several age groups and levels of milk consumption. These data are used to derive Class 2 thyroid dose estimates for unmeasured inhabitants of these villages. For any village where the number of residents with Class 1 thyroid doses is small or equal to zero, individual thyroid doses of Class 3 are derived from the relationship obtained between the mean adult thyroid dose and the deposition density of (131)I or 137Cs in villages with Class 2 thyroid doses presenting characteristics similar to those of the village considered. In order to improve the reliability of the Class 3 thyroid doses, an extensive program of measurement of (129)I in soils is envisaged.

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on April 26, 1986, released approximately 2 EBq of 131I and other radioiodine isotopes that heavily contaminated southern Belarus. An increase in thyroid cancer reported in 1992 and attributed to the Chernobyl accident was challenged as possibly the result of intensive screening. We began a case-control study to test the hypothesis that the Chernobyl accident caused the increase in thyroid cancer. Records of childhood thyroid cancer in the national therapy centers in Minsk in 1992 yielded 107 individuals with confirmed pathology diagnoses and available for interview. Pathways to diagnosis were (1) routine endocrinological screening in 63, (2) presentation with enlarged or nodular thyroid in 25 and (3) an incidental finding in 19. Two sets of controls were chosen, one matched on pathway to diagnosis, the other representing the area of heavy fallout, both matched on age, sex and rural/urban residence in 1986. The 131I dose to the thyroid was estimated from ground deposition of 137Cs, ground deposition of 131I, a data bank of 1986 thyroid radiation measurements, questionnaires and interviews. Highly significant differences were observed between cases and controls (both sets) with respect to dose. The differences persisted within pathway to diagnosis, gender, age and year of diagnosis, and level of iodine in the soil, and were most marked in the southern portion of the Gomel region. The case-control comparisons indicate a strong relationship between thyroid cancer and estimated radiation dose from the Chernobyl accident.

Radioiodine released to the atmosphere from the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station in the spring of 1986 resulted in large-scale thyroid-gland exposure of populations in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. Because of the short half life of 131I (8.04 d), adequate data on the intensities and patterns of iodine deposition were not collected, especially in the regions where the incidence of childhood-thyroid cancer is now increasing. Results are presented from a feasibility study that show that accelerator-mass-spectrometry measurements of 129I (half life 16 x 106 y) in soil can be used to reconstruct 131I-deposition density and thus help in the thyroid-dosimetry effort that is now urgently needed to support epidemiologic studies of childhood-thyroid cancer in the affected regions.

The authors provide the results of studying the reconstruction of individual doses of thyroid radiation among the community living in polluted areas of the Byelorussian Republic according to radiation monitoring data and with regard to the nature of radioactive pollution of the land. Every individual result of estimating the degree of thyroid radiation was characterized by 3 magnitudes: the lower and upper limit of possible values and by the intermediate (basic) value. The authors hold that studies of the correlations between the values of individual doses of thyroid radiation and different parameters of the radiation situation in every region will promote further specification of individual doses of thyroid radiation.