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Background: In asylum seekers and refugees, the frequency of mental disorders, such as depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder, is higher than the general population, but there is a lack of data on risk factors for the development of mental disorders in this population., Aim: This study investigated the risk factors for mental disorder development in a large group of asylum seekers and refugees resettled in high- and middle-income settings., Methods: Participant-level data from two randomized prevention studies involving asylum seekers and refugees resettled in Western European countries and in Turkey were pooled. The two studies randomized participants with psychological distress, but without a diagnosis of mental disorder, to the Self-Help Plus psychological intervention or enhanced care as usual. At baseline, exposure to potentially traumatic events was measured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire-part I, while psychological distress and depressive symptoms were assessed with the General Health Questionnaire and the Patient Health Questionnaire. After 3 and 6 months of follow-up, the proportion of participants who developed a mental disorder was calculated using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview., Results: A total of 1,101 participants were included in the analysis. At 3- and 6-month follow-up the observed frequency of mental disorders was 13.51% (115/851) and 24.30% (207/852), respectively, while the frequency estimates after missing data imputation were 13.95% and 23.78%, respectively. After controlling for confounders, logistic regression analysis showed that participants with a lower education level ( p  = .034), a shorter duration of journey ( p  = .057) and arriving from countries with war-related contexts ( p  = .017), were more at risk of developing mental disorders. Psychological distress ( p  = .004), depression ( p  = .001) and exposure to potentially traumatic events ( p  = .020) were predictors of mental disorder development., Conclusions: This study identified several risk factors for the development of mental disorders in asylum seekers and refugees, some of which may be the target of risk reduction policies. The identification of asylum seekers and refugees at increased risk of mental disorders should guide the implementation of focused preventative psychological interventions.

Background: Longitudinal studies examining mental health trajectories in refugees and asylum seekers are scarce. Objectives: To investigate trajectories of psychological symptoms and wellbeing in refugees and asylum seekers, and identify factors associated with these trajectories. Method: 912 asylum seekers and refugees from the control arm of three trials in Europe ( n  = 229), Turkey ( n  = 320), and Uganda ( n  = 363) were included. We described trajectories of psychological symptoms and wellbeing, and used trauma exposure, age, marital status, education, and individual trial as predictors. Then, we assessed the bidirectional interactions between wellbeing and psychological symptoms, and the effect of each predictor on each outcome controlling for baseline values. Results: Symptom improvement was identified in all trials, and for wellbeing in 64.7% of participants in Europe and Turkey, versus 31.5% in Uganda. In Europe and Turkey domestic violence predicted increased symptoms at post-intervention ( ß  = 1.36, 95% CI 0.17-2.56), whilst murder of family members at 6-month follow-up ( ß  = 1.23, 95% CI 0.27-2.19). Lower wellbeing was predicted by murder of family member ( ß  = -1.69, 95% CI -3.06 to -0.32), having been kidnapped ( ß  = -1.67, 95% CI -3.19 to -0.15), close to death ( ß  =  -1.38, 95% CI -2.70 to -0.06), and being in the host country ≥2 years ( ß  =  -1.60, 95% CI -3.05 to -0.14). In Uganda at post-intervention, having been kidnapped predicted increased symptoms ( ß  = 2.11, 95% CI 0.58-3.65), and lack of shelter ( ß  = -2.51, 95% CI -4.44 to -0.58) and domestic violence predicted lower wellbeing ( ß  = -1.36, 95% CI -2.67 to -0.05). Conclusion: Many participants adapt to adversity, but contextual factors play a critical role in determining mental health trajectories., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s)., (© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)