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Why is Turkey's approach to EU's European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) more cautious now after a period of active cooperation in their shared neighbourhood? How can such reversal be explained despite parallels in the interests of the EU and Turkey in their shared neighbourhood and complementarities in their policy instruments used to advance these interests? This article evaluates the explanatory power of rational choice, sociological and historical institutionalism in comparative politics in addressing these questions. On the basis of qualitative case study evidence including interviews with key stakeholders, it concludes that historical institutionalism, with its emphasis on context, interaction and temporality, is better equipped than rational choice and sociological institutionalisms at accounting for Turkey's changing foreign policy choices concerning the ENP and the UfM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]