1. China's future wind energy considering air density during climate change.
- Author
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Zhang, Zeyu, Liang, Yushi, Xue, Xinyue, Li, Yan, Zhang, Mulan, Li, Yiran, and Ji, Xiaodong
- Subjects
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WIND power , *DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) , *ENERGY futures , *PROBABILITY density function , *POWER resources , *CLIMATE change - Abstract
To assess the impact of air density on future wind resources under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-East Asia project was utilized to simulate the future air density characteristics of China (2021–2100). Empirical air density distributions were calculated, and fourteen probability density functions were fitted to the empirical air density distributions, determining the optimal fitted distribution functions. In this study, the effect of air density on the annual energy production and wind power density was quantified. The results indicated that only approximately 4 % of regional air density values reaches the standard air density under the three climate scenarios. The seven parameter Generalized Extreme Value-Generalized Extreme Value distribution, six parameter Gamma-Generalized Extreme Value distribution, and six parameter Exponentiated Weibull- Generalized Extreme Value distribution matched the empirical distributions well under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Annual energy production and wind power density decreased by more than 15 % after considering air density. Under the different RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the errors of annual energy production and wind power density gradually escalate. In the Tibetan Plateau region, accounting for air density results in an overestimation of annual energy production by over 40 % and wind power density by more than 35 %. The findings of this study offer guidance for future wind energy resource planning, enabling optimal utilization of wind energy resources. [Display omitted] • Evaluating future air density in spatial distribution under diverse RCP scenarios. • CORDEX-EA is utilized for mapping air density variations in China. • The impact of the air density on the future wind energy potential is assessed. • Wind energy overestimation exceeds 20 % in over 30 % of the study areas under RCP2.6 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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