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Objective--To assess the likelihood of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar (MTM) peninsula through terrestrial movement of livestock. Animals--89,294 cattle and buffalo legally moved into the MTM peninsula. Procedures--A quantitative risk assessment was conducted by use of a stochastic simulation. Patterns of livestock movement were ascertained through review of relevant governmental records and regulations and by interviewing farmers, traders, and local officers when the records did not exist. Parameters identified in the process were the probabilities of livestock having FMD and of FMD infection going undetected during import processes. The probability of an animal accepted for import having FMD was also assessed. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effects that each parameter had on the model. Results--The simulation yielded an average consignment prevalence of 10.95%. Typically, each animal in a quarantine facility had a 2.7% chance of having an inapparent form of FMD infection; hence, it was likely an animal would not be identified as infected. Findings revealed that the mean probability of an animal accepted for import having FMD was 2.9%, and the risk was as high as 11%. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance--Results of the model allowed for the evaluation of movement regulations currently imposed in the MTM peninsula. Evidence from the study suggested that current practices in animal movement were far from efficient in preventing introduction of FMD-infected animals into the MTM region, and additional measures will be necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the impacts of the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and various FMD control programs in southern Thailand., Animals: A native population of 562,910 cattle and 33,088 buffalo as well as 89,294 animals legally transported into southern Thailand., Procedures: A quantitative risk assessment was used to ascertain the probability of FMD introduction, and an intrinsic dynamic model was used to assess impacts. Value for the transmission rate (beta) was estimated. Five scenarios created to assess the impacts of nonstructural protein (NSP) testing, mass vaccination, and culling were examined. Impacts were assessed through an examination of the estimated annual cumulative incidence (ACI) of FMD. The ACIs of various scenarios were compared by use of the Tukey Studentized range technique., Results: beta was estimated at 0.115. Approximately 35,000 cases of FMD would be expected from the baseline situation. A 30% reduction of ACI was detected with the introduction of NSP antibody testing. Prophylactic vaccination resulted in an 85% reduction of ACI. Concurrent use of NSP antibody testing and vaccination reduced the ACI by 96%, and the addition of an eradication policy resulted in a slightly greater decrease in the ACI (98%)., Conclusions and Clinical Relevance: The study used epidemiologic models to investigate FMD control interventions. Results suggested that vaccination has more impact than the use of NSP testing. Use of the NSP test reduced ACI during peak seasons, whereas vaccination diminished the underlying incidence. The best mitigation plan was an integrated and strategic use of multiple control techniques.