1. Household epidemics: modelling effects of early stage vaccination.
- Author
-
Shaban N, Andersson M, Svensson A, and Britton T
- Subjects
- Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks statistics & numerical data, Humans, Incidence, Models, Statistical, Sweden epidemiology, Tanzania epidemiology, Biometry methods, Disease Outbreaks prevention & control, Family Characteristics, Influenza Vaccines therapeutic use, Influenza, Human epidemiology, Models, Biological, Vaccination statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
A Markovian susceptible --> infectious --> removed (SIR) epidemic model is considered in a community partitioned into households. A vaccination strategy, which is implemented during the early stages of the disease following the detection of infected individuals is proposed. In this strategy, the detection occurs while an individual is infectious and other susceptible household members are vaccinated without further delay. Expressions are derived for the influence on the reproduction numbers of this vaccination strategy for equal and unequal household sizes. We fit previously estimated parameters from influenza and use household distributions for Sweden and Tanzania census data. The results show that the reproduction number is much higher in Tanzania (6 compared with 2) due to larger households, and that infected individuals have to be detected (and household members vaccinated) after on average 5 days in Sweden and after 3.3 days in Tanzania, a much smaller difference.
- Published
- 2009
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