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Aims: To determine the association between rainfall rate and occurrence of enterovirus infection related to contamination of drinking water., Methods and Results: One fatality case and three cases of severe illness were observed during the enterovirus epidemic in a village in southern Taiwan from 16 September to 3 October 1998. Groundwater samples were collected from the public well in the village after heavy rainfall to test for enterovirus using the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay. The RT-PCR assay detected the enterovirus in the groundwater sample collected on 26 September 1998. The logistic regression model also revealed a statistically significant association between the rainfall rate and the observation of cases of enterovirus infection., Conclusions: According to the fitted logistic regression model, the probability of detecting cases of enterovirus infection was greater than 50% at rainfall rates >31 mm h(-1). The higher the rainfall rate, the higher the probability of enterovirus epidemic., Significance and Impact of the Study: Contamination of drinking water by the enterovirus may lead to epidemics that cause deaths and severe illness, and such contamination may be caused by heavy rainfall. The major finding in this study is that the enterovirus could be flushed to groundwater in an unconfined aquifer after a heavy rainfall. This work allows for a warning level so that an action can be taken to minimize future outbreaks and so protect public health.

Global precipitation demonstrates a substantial role in the hydrological cycle and offers tremendous implications in hydrometeorological studies. Advanced remote sensing instrumentations, such as the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR), can estimate precipitation and cloud properties and have a unique capability to estimate the raindrop size information globally at snapshots in time. The present study validates the Level-2 data products of the GPM DPR with the long-term measurements of seven north Taiwan Joss–Waldvogel disdrometers from 2014 to 2022. The precipitation and drop size distribution parameters like rainfall rate (R; mm h−1), radar reflectivity factor (dBZ), mass-weighted mean drop diameter (Dm; mm), and normalized intercept parameter (Nw; m−3 mm−1) of the GPM DPR are compared with the disdrometers. Four different comparison approaches (point match, 5-km average, 10-km average, and optimal method) are used for the validation; among these four, the optimal strategy provided reasonable agreement between the GPM DPR and the disdrometers. The GPM DPR revealed superior performance in estimating the rain parameters in stratiform precipitation than the convective precipitation. Irrespective of algorithm type (dual- or single-frequency algorithm), sensitivity analysis revealed superior agreement for the mass-weighted mean diameter and inferior agreement for the normalized intercept parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We made an effort to inspect the raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean tropical cyclones (TCs) using ground-based disdrometer measurements from observational sites in India and Taiwan. Five TCs (2010 - 2013) from the Indian Ocean and six TCs (2014 - 2016) from the Pacific Ocean were measured using particle size and velocity disdrometers installed in south India and south Taiwan, respectively. Significant differences between the RSDs of Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean TCs are noticed. For example, a higher number of small drops is observed in Indian Ocean TCs, whereas Pacific Ocean TCs have more mid-size and large drops. RSDs of Pacific Ocean TCs have higher mass-weighted mean diameter and lower normalized intercept parameter than Indian Ocean TCs. RSD values quantified based on rainfall rate and precipitation types also showed similar characteristics between Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean TCs. The radar reflectivity and rainfall rate (Z-R) relations and shape and slope (μ-Λ) relations of both oceanic (Indian and Pacific) TCs are found to be distinctly different. Possible causes for the dissimilarities in RSD features between Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean TCs are due to relative differences in water vapor availability and convective activity between TCs in these two oceanic basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan, an island located in the northwest Pacific region, is influenced by heavy rainfall events during warm seasons, particularly from June to August. Interaction of precipitating clouds with the complex topography results in inhomogeneous and intense rainfall over Taiwan. Hence, the present study investigates the regional discrepancies in the microphysical characteristics of summer season rainfall over (north, south, east, and central) Taiwan using 9 years (2014–2022) of GPM DPR measurements. The results showed clear distinctions in the precipitation and raindrop size distributions over the north, south, east, and central Taiwan. The contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) of radar reflectivity, rainfall rate, drop diameter, and concentration clearly infer the dominance of large-size super cooled liquid and ice particles above the melting layer and rain particles below the melting layers in the south and central Taiwan. Central (north) Taiwan is dominated by large-size (small) drops among four regions. Higher concentrations of large drops over central Taiwan (principally from convective precipitation) and south Taiwan (primarily from stratiform precipitation) is attributed to higher rainfall amounts over these two regions than the north and east Taiwan. Furthermore, irrespective of precipitation type and geographic region, summer monsoon rainfall over Taiwan is dominated by coalescence and breakup processes. The microphysical characteristics of summer season rainfall addressed in this study could assist in refining the cloud modeling simulations over complex topography in Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm (MIRA) method combines microwave and infrared channels for their respective contributions to the achievement of higher rainfall-correlated and spatial resolution data, in order to acquire appropriate rainfall data for hydrological models. In this study, estimates of rainfall rate using the MIRA method are affected by the time lag between the data acquisition of the microwave and infrared channels. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) for comparing the rainfall rate retrieved by the MIRA method (5-minute time lag between microwave and infrared data) to the ground rainfall rate in Taiwan is 12.23 mm hour−1 with a correlation coefficient of 0.58. In addition, by comparing rainfall estimated by the TMI-2A12 and the MIRA method for three typhoons, the rainfall estimated by the latter method is more significantly correlated with the ground-observed rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about the raindrop size distribution (RSD) is vital for comprehending the precipitation microphysics, improving the rainfall estimation algorithms, and appraising the rainfall erosivity. Previous research has revealed that the RSD exhibits diversity with geographical location and weather type, which leads to the assessment of the region and weather-specific RSDs. Based on long-term (2004 to 2016) disdrometer measurements in northern Taiwan, this study attempts to demonstrate the RSD aspects of summer seasons that were bifurcated into two weather conditions, namely typhoon (TY) and non-typhoon (NTY) rainfall. The results show a higher concentration of small drops and a lower concentration of large-sized drops in TY compared to NTY rainfall, and this behavior persisted even after characterizing the RSDs into different rainfall rate classes. RSDs expressed in gamma parameters show higher mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) and lower normalized intercept parameter (Nw) values in NTY than TY rainfall. Moreover, sorting these two weather conditions (TY and NTY rainfall) into stratiform and convective regimes revealed a larger Dm in NTY than in TY rainfall. The RSD empirical relations used in the valuation of rainfall rate (Z – R , Dm – R , and Nw – R) and rainfall kinetic energy (KE– R and KE– Dm) were enumerated for TY and NTY rainfall, and they exhibited profound diversity between these two weather conditions. Attributions of RSD variability between the TY and NTY rainfall to the thermodynamical and microphysical processes are elucidated with the aid of reanalysis, remote sensing, and ground-based data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestern Pacific (NWP) tropical cyclones (TCs) impose a severe threat to the life and economy of the people living in East Asian countries. The microphysical features, mainly the raindrop size distributions (RSD) of TCs that improve the modeling simulation and rainfall estimation algorithms, are limited to case studies, and an extensive understanding of TCs' RSD is still scarce over the northwest Pacific. Here, we examine a comprehensive outlook on disparities in microphysical attributes of NWP TCs with radial distance and storm type, using sixteen years of disdrometer, ground-based radar, and reanalysis datasets in north Taiwan. We find that dominant stratiform precipitation in the inner rainbands leads to the occurrence of more bigger drops in the inner rainbands than the inner core and outer rainbands. Moreover, a decrease in mass-weighted mean diameter and rainfall rate with radial distance is associated with a reduction in moisture availability for various circumstances, and this association is deceptive in intense storms. Our findings give an insight into crucial processes governing microphysical inequalities in different regions of NWP TCs, with implications for the ground-based and remote-sensing rainfall estimation algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategies of the extrapolation adjusted by model prediction (ExAMP) blending scheme, which trusts the field pattern predicted by extrapolation and allows the field intensity to be adjusted by numerical weather prediction (NWP), for rainfall nowcasting are analyzed in this study. The McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model serve as the extrapolation and NWP models, respectively. Seven 150-min rainfall nowcasting experiments with different strategies are carried out for 37 sampled periods from seven heavy rainfall events in Taiwan in 2019. The results of the overall statistics indicate that, for the extrapolation component, extrapolating the current rainfall rate estimated from the lowest dual-polarimetric radar observations is a superior strategy. The ExAMP scheme that blends the MAPLE and WRF forecasts can surpass both components in 150-min rainfall nowcasting, and an empirical limitation on the innovation of intensity during the blending procedure is found unnecessary in this study. Moreover, the spatial performance for two contrasting events reveals the ability of ExAMP in grasping the rainfall strengthening and weakening in different areas. The skill statistics separately at rainfall strengthening gauges and weakening gauges further prove the effectiveness of ExAMP even though it is effective in intensity correction instead of pattern correction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The drop size distribution (DSD) and drop shape relation (DSR) characteristics that were observed by a ground-based 2D video disdrometer and retrieved from a C-band polarimetric radar in the typhoon systems during landfall in the western Pacific, near northern Taiwan, were analyzed. The evolution of the DSD and its relation with the vertical development of the reflectivity of two rainband cases are fully illustrated. Three different types of precipitation systems were classified—weak stratiform, stratiform, and convective—according to characteristics of the mass-weighted diameter Dm, the maximum diameter, and the vertical structure of reflectivity. Further study of the relationship between the height H of the 15-dBZ contour of the vertical reflectivity profile, surface reflectivity Z, and the mass-weighted diameter Dm showed that Dm increased with a corresponding increase in the system depth H and reflectivity Z. An analysis of DSDs retrieved from the National Central University (NCU) C-band polarimetric radar and disdrometer in typhoon cases indicates that the DSDs from the typhoon systems on the ocean were mainly a maritime convective type. However, the DSDs collected over land tended to uniquely locate in between the continental and maritime clusters. The average mass-weighted diameter Dm was about 2 mm and the average logarithmic normalized intercept Nw was about 3.8 log10 mm-1 m-3 in typhoon cases. The unique terrain-influenced deep convective systems embedded in typhoons in northern Taiwan might be the reason for these characteristics. The “effective DSR” of typhoon systems had an axis ratio similar to that found by E. A. Brandes et al. when the raindrops were less than 1.5 mm. Nevertheless, the axis ratio tended to be more spherical with drops greater than 1.5 mm and under higher horizontal winds (maximum wind speed less than 8 m s-1). A fourth-order fitting DSR was derived for typhoon systems and the value was also very close to the estimated DSR from the polarimetric measurements in Typhoon Saomai (2006). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the severe threat of tropical cyclones to human life, recent years have witnessed an increase in the investigations on raindrop size distributions of tropical cyclones to improve their quantitative precipitation estimation algorithms and modeling simulations. So far, the raindrop size distributions of tropical cyclones using disdrometer measurements have been conducted at coastal and inland stations, but such studies are still missing for oceanic locations. To the authors' knowledge, the current study examines—for the first time—the raindrop size distributions of fourteen tropical cyclones observed (during 2003–2007) at an oceanic station, Aimeliik, located in the Palau islands in the Western Pacific. The raindrop size distributions of Western Pacific tropical cyclones measured in the Palau islands showed unlike characteristics between stratiform and convective clusters, with a larger mass-weighted mean diameter and smaller normalized intercept parameter in the convective type. The contribution of the drop diameters to the total number concentration showed a gradual decrease with the increase in drop diameter size. Raindrop size distributions of Western Pacific tropical cyclones measured in the Palau islands differed slightly from Taiwan and Japan. The helpfulness of empirical relations in raindrop size distribution in rainfall estimation algorithms of ground-based (Z–R, μ–Λ, Dm–R, and Nw–R) and remote-sensing (σm–Dm, μo–Dm, Dm–Zku, and Dm–Zka) radars are evaluated. Furthermore, the present study also related the rainfall kinetic energy of fourteen tropical cyclones with rainfall rate and mass-weighted mean diameter (KEtime–R, KEmm–R, and KEmm–Dm). The raindrop size distribution empirical relations appraised in this study offer a chance to: (1) enhance the rain retrieval algorithms of ground-based, remote sensing radars; and (2) improve rainfall kinetic energy estimations using disdrometers and GPM DPR in rainfall erosivity studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonal variations of heavy rainfall days over Taiwan are analyzed using 6-yr (1997–2002) hourly rainfall data from about 360 rainfall stations, including high-spatial-resolution Automatic Rainfall and Meteorological Telemetry System stations and 25 conventional stations. The seasonal variations and spatial variations of nontyphoon and typhoon heavy rainfall occurrences (i.e., the number of rainfall stations with rainfall rate >15 mm h-1 and daily accumulation >50 mm) are also analyzed. From mid-May to early October, with abundant moisture, potential instability, and the presence of mountainous terrain, nontyphoon heavy rainfall days are frequent (>60%), but only a few stations recorded extremely heavy rainfall (>130 mm day-1) during the passage of synoptic disturbances or the drifting of mesoscale convective systems inland. During the mei-yu season, especially in early June, these events are more widespread than in other seasons. The orographic effects are important in determining the spatial distribution of heavy rainfall occurrences with a pronounced afternoon maximum, especially during the summer months under the southwesterly monsoon flow. After the summer–autumn transition, heavy rainfall days are most frequent over northeastern Taiwan under the northeasterly monsoon flow. Extremely heavy rainfall events (>130 mm day-1) are infrequent during the winter months because of stable atmospheric stratification with a low moisture content. Typhoon heavy rainfall events start in early May and become more frequent in late summer and early autumn. During the analysis period, heavy rainfall occurrences are widespread and dominated by extremely heavy rainfall events (>130 mm day-1) on the windward slopes of the storm circulations. The spatial distribution of typhoon heavy rainfall occurrences depends on the typhoon track with very little diurnal variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of model error in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) can be limited by the assumptions within parameterization schemes. Stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) is one representation of model error that randomly perturbs parameterized physical tendencies using a spatially and temporally correlated red-noise field. This research investigates the sensitivity of ensemble rainfall forecasts produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to the configuration of SPPT and independent SPPT (iSPPT) for three meso–synoptic-scale heavy rainfall events over the United States and Taiwan, primarily focusing on the ensemble mean and standard deviation as well as forecast skill. Thirty-two 20-member ensembles, which represent a combination of eight configurations of the stochastic perturbation time scale, length scale, and amplitude scale, and four perturbed parameterization schemes, as well as an unperturbed control simulation, are examined for each event. In each case, rainfall standard deviation is most sensitive to the perturbation time scale and amplitude scale. Moreover, microphysics tendency perturbations are associated with the largest standard deviation in two of the three events, followed by perturbations to the total (nonmicrophysics), turbulent mixing, and radiation parameterized tendencies. Additionally, microphysics tendency perturbations are associated with an increase in the areal coverage of heavy rainfall compared to the control forecast, regardless of whether the control forecast over or underrepresents the observed rainfall distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having knowledge of the drop size distribution (DSD) is of particular interest to researchers as it is widely applied to quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) methods. Polarimetric radar measurements have previously been utilized to derive DSD curve characteristics frequently modeled as a gamma distribution. Likewise, approaches using dual frequency measurements have shown positive results. Both cases have relied on the need to constrain the relationship between the DSD parameters based on prior knowledge or assumptions of the collected data. This paper presents a methodology for retrieving the DSD parameters using the dual frequency and polarimetric nature of measurements from a unique data set taken at co-located S-band and C-band dual polarization radars. Using the reflectivity and differential phase measurements from each radar, an optimization routine employing particle swarm optimization (PSO) and T-Matrix computation of radar parameters is able to accurately retrieve the gamma distribution parameters without the constraints required in previous methods. Retrieved results are compared to known truth data collected using a network of OTT PARSIVEL disdrometers in Taiwan in order to assess the success of this procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dam safety assessment is usually conducted regularly to investigate the risks associated with the dam and propose remedies to ensure effective reservoir operations. One crucial aspect of the evaluation involves performing hydrological analyses to determine if the existing spillway can successfully deliver the probable maximum flood (PMF) downstream. This study applied storm transposition and typhoon rainstorm methods for PMP estimations. The resulting PMP values were then used as input for runoff models to generate flood hydrographs for PMF determination. A modification for the storm transposition method was proposed to determine the barrier height considering the moisture inflow direction. In estimating the orographic rainfall in the typhoon rainstorm model, an effective terrain slope was suggested according to different windward directions based on DEM analysis. Shihmen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, were used as examples to conduct the PMP and PMF analysis. The obtained PMPs were further compared with the results generated by Hershfield's method to assess the reasonability of the estimation. The results show that the maximum deviation of the 24-h PMP values estimated by the three methods is within 30% in the Shihmen watershed and 16% in the Feitsui watershed. The PMF estimations in the two reservoir watersheds are larger than the design discharges of the existing spillways. Hence, extending the capacity of the existing spillways or constructing upstream bypasses to avoid catastrophic flooding downstream is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to develop an optimal estimation model for rainfall rate retrievals using radar reflectivity, thereby gaining an effective grasp of rainfall information for disaster prevention uses. A process was designed for evaluating the optimal retrieval models using various dataset combinations with radar reflectivity and ground meteorological attributes. Various ground meteorological attributes (such as relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, etc.) were obtained using the land-based weather stations affiliated with Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB). This study used nine radar reflectivity provided by the Hualien weather surveillance radar station's Volume Cover Pattern 21 system. The developed models are built using multiple machine learning algorithms, including linear regression (REG), support vector regression (SVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), in addition to the Marshall–Palmer formula (MP). The study examined 14 typhoons that occurred from 2008 to 2017 at Chenggong station in southeast Taiwan, and Lanyu station in the outlying islands, and the top four major rainfall events were designated as test typhoons—Nanmadol (2011), Tembin (2012), Matmo (2014), and Nepartak (2016). The results indicated that for rainfall retrievals, radar reflectivity at a scanning (elevation) angle of 6.0° combined with ground meteorological attributes were the optimal input variables for the Chenggong station, whereas radar reflectivity at an elevation angle of 4.3° combined with ground meteorological attributes were optimal for the Lanyu station. In terms of model performance, XGBoost models had the lowest error index at Chenggong and Lanyu stations compared with MP, REG, and SVR models. XGBoost models at Lanyu station had the highest efficiency coefficient (0.903), and those at Chenggong station had the second highest (0.885). As a result, pairing the combination of optimal radar reflectivity and ground meteorological attributes, as verified by the evaluation process, with a high-efficiency algorithm (XGBoost) can effectively increase the accuracy of rainfall retrieval during typhoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• For the first time, rainfall KE relations from disdrometers are validated with GPM DPR. • Rainfall KE relations showed clear seasonal (no spatial) variations for north Taiwan. • The GPM DPR can provide better rainfall KE estimates with the KE mm – D m relations. The kinetic energy (KE) of rainfall is an important parameter in estimating the rainfall erosivity factor, an essential parameter in the soil erosion equation. The global precipitation measurement dual-frequency precipitation radar (GPM DPR) can provide radar reflectivity at Ku- and Ka-band frequencies (Z ku and Z ka), rainfall rate (I , mm h−1), and drop size distribution parameters (mass-weighed mean diameter: D m in mm and normalized intercept parameter: log 10 N w , N w in m−3 mm−1). The empirical relations between rainfall KE and GPM DPR parameters (KE time – I, KE mm – D m , KE time – Z ku , and KE time – Z ka relations) can allow us to estimate the KE at the locations where there are no ground-based measurements. In the present work, long-term measurements of impact type disdrometers located at three different locations (Zhongli, Feitsui, and Hsiayun) in north Taiwan are used to collect the raindrop size distribution (RSD) information of six seasons (spring, mei-yu, summer, autumn, winter, and typhoon). Measured RSDs in six seasons are used to estimate the rainfall intensity, mass-weighted mean diameter, rainfall KE flux (KE time , J m–2 h−1), KE content (KE mm , J m−2 mm−1), radar reflectivity at Ku- and Ka-band frequencies. For the first time, present study establish and validate the rainfall KE functional relationships with GPM DPR data products (KE time – I, KE mm – D m , KE time – Z ku , and KE time – Z ka relations). The empirical relations between rainfall KE and GPM DPR parameters (I, Dm, Zku, and Zka) are established for six seasons of each disdrometer location. Derived KE relations did not show any spatial disparity for a given season, especially the KE mm – D m , KE time – Z ku , and KE time – Z ka relations. On the other hand, a clear seasonal differences in the rainfall KE relations are noticed at each observational site. The established relations showed reasonable agreement in estimating the KE from the GPM DPR. However, in determining the KE , the KE mm – D m relation showed outperformance over the remaining three relations (KE time – I, KE time – Z ku , and KE time – Z ka relations). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From mid‐May to late June, the eastward propagation of some mid‐tropospheric cyclones (MTCs) originating in the Bay of Bengal (BOB)‐Burma (BUM) region across northern Indochina and southwest China to East Asia are observed. From 1979 to 2016, 137 MTCs were identified for the BOB‐BUM region. Eighty‐eight MTCs were trapped over northern Indochina, but 49 were propagated by the southwesterly flow of the BOB mid‐tropospheric trough to reach East Asia. Thirty‐one moved across Taiwan, but 18 did not. Eventually, all these MTCs moved to Okinawa. The former group of rainstorms produced rainfall ≥100 mm·day−1 over Taiwan, while 44 rainstorms generated rainfall ≥50 mm·day−1 over Okinawa. The 49 eastward propagating through‐Indochina MTCs exhibited the following salient features: (a) initial formation mostly occurred in the mid‐troposphere ahead/within the BOB trough in the morning over the BOB, but in the afternoon‐evening over BUM. (b) The eastward propagating BOB‐BUM MTCs underwent two descending processes: descending one mandatory level 6 hr after formation, and descending again from 700 to 925 hPa over southeastern China to interact with a low‐level cyclonic shear flow. (c) Intensified (weakened) by dipole anomalous circulation cells, the confluent monsoon southwesterly flow west (east) of Taiwan facilitated the merger of the MTC with a local front. (d) Rainfall produced by rainstorms over Taiwan/Okinawa was maintained by the intensified convergence of water vapour flux toward Taiwan/Okinawa. This hydrological process was stronger toward Taiwan than Okinawa and generated more rainfall in the former region. The impact of the BOB‐BUM MTC on East Asian weather is confirmed by this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Infrared (IR)-passive microwave (PMW) blended technique is developed to derive precipitation estimates over the Asia-Pacific domain through calibrating the temperature of brightness blackbody from the Japanese Himawari-8 satellite to precipitation derived from the combined PMW retrievals (currently MWCOMB2x) based on the probability density function (PDF)-matching concept. Called IRQPE, the technique is modified and fine-tuned to better represent the spatially rapidly changing cloud–precipitation relationship over the target region with PDF-matching tables established over a refined spatial resolution of 0.5° lat/lon grid. The evaluation of the IRQPE shows broadly comparable performance to that of the CMORPH2 in detecting rainfall systems of large and medium-scales at a resolution of 1.0° degree. Rainfall variations from the two datasets over El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation active convective centers show well consistency of each other, suggesting usefulness of the IRQPE in climate applications. Two approaches for regional improvements are explored by establishing the PDF tables for a further refined spatial resolution and by replacing the PMW-based precipitation 'truth' fields with the surface gauge data to overcome the shortcoming of PMW-based retrievals in capturing orographic rainfall over the Taiwan area. The results show significant improvements. The rainfall patterns of revised the IRQPE at a resolution of 0.1° degree on above the 5-day timescale correlate well with the Taiwan official surface ground truth called the QPESUMS, which is a gridded set of gauge-corrected Radar quantitative precipitation estimations. The root mean square error of the revised IRQPE on estimating the Taiwan overall land rainfall is close to Radar-derived rainfall accumulations on a 30-day time-scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy rainfall is a challenge to forecast due to the variety of rainfall intensities and durations across a wide spectrum of high‐impact storm types. In this study, we analyze extreme storms in Tropical and Subtropical East Asia, a moisture‐rich environment with complex terrain and oceanic regions. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Precipitation Radar is utilized to characterize the frequency and rainfall intensity of four extreme storm types. Extreme storms producing heavy precipitation are categorized into four types: deep convective cores (DCCs), deepwide convective cores (DWCCs), wide convective cores (WCCs), and broad stratiforms regions (BSRs). DCCs and DWCCs occur more frequently and produce stronger rain intensities over land compared to those over ocean. However, WCCs and BSRs occur more frequently over oceans, especially in association with the Meiyu front season and climatological progression in the northern subregions. Although the Convective Cores show higher rain intensities than the BSRs, they show lower volumetric rain rate due to their comparatively smaller horizontal area. An ingredients‐based framework is applied to find key similarities across the different heavy rainfall‐producing storms near Taiwan using ERA5 reanalysis. The analysis shows that the broader systems (i.e., WCCs and BSRs) are associated with larger in area and longer timescales of vertical moisture flux and low‐level wind shear that support the development of the horizontally large, organized storms. Smaller DCCs do not show strong vertical moisture flux on the spatial scales resolved by the reanalysis, suggesting their more local nature and less meso‐ or synoptic scale support. Plain Language Summary: Heavy rainfall is a challenge to forecast due to the variety of rainfall intensities and durations across a wide spectrum of high‐impact storm types. In this study, we analyze extreme storms in Tropical and Subtropical East Asia (TSEA), a moisture‐rich environment with complex terrain and oceanic regions. Observations from the first satellite precipitation radar are used to characterize the nature of extreme storms. Results show that deep convective storms occur more frequently over land, while the wide convective storms and the broad stratiform regions occur more frequently over oceans, especially in association with the Meiyu front (pre‐East Asian monsoon season) in northern TSEA. Broad stratiform regions can produce a larger total rainfall amount compared to the convective rain categories because of larger areas. A goal of this study is to identify similar key ingredients across different extreme storm types near Taiwan. Analysis shows that the broader storms are associated with moisture in larger areas and on longer timescales, and also low‐level wind shear that supports the development of the large, organized storms. Smaller deep convective storms do not show strong moisture signals in coarse‐scale environmental analysis, suggesting that this storm type might need more small‐scale moisture support. Key Points: The spatio‐temporal and rain frequency of extreme storm types in Tropical and Subtropical East Asia is documentedBroad stratiform environments, for example, in Meiyu Front, require a longer and larger moisture build‐upSmaller convective systems require spatially smaller diurnal vertical moisture flux and convergence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A lab-fabricated ocean bottom seismometer was modified and deployed terrestrially to detect low-frequency (<10 Hz) ground vibrations produced by debris flows. A frequency–response test of the new seismometer revealed that it can detect seismic signals at frequencies of 0.3–120 Hz. Its seismic ground motion detection ability was investigated by comparing its measurements of seismic signals produced by rockfalls with those of a geophone. Two new seismometers were deployed at the Aiyuzi Stream, Nantou County, Taiwan, in September 2012. Seismic signals produced by two local earthquakes, two teleseisms, and three debris flows detected by the seismometer in 2013 and 2014 were discussed. The seismic signal frequencies of the local earthquakes and teleseisms (both approximately 1800 km apart) were 0.3–30 and <1 Hz, respectively. Moreover, seismometer measurements revealed that seismic signals generated by debris flows can have minimum frequencies as low as 2 Hz. Time-matched CCD camera images revealed that debris flow surge fronts with larger rocks have lower minimum frequencies. Finally, because the seismometer can detect low-frequency seismic waves with low spatial decay rates, it was able to detect one debris flow approximately 3 min and 40 s before it arrived. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex terrain poses significant challenges to the radar based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) because of blockages to the lower tilts of radar observations. The blockages often force the use of higher tilts data to estimate precipitation at the ground and result in errors due to vertical variations of the radar variables. To obtain accurate radar QPEs in the subtropical complex terrain of Taiwan, a vertically corrected composite algorithm (VCCA) was developed for two C-band polarimetric radars. The new algorithm corrects higher tilt radar variables with the vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) or vertical profile of specific differential phase (VPSDP) and estimates rainfall rate at the ground through an automated combination of R-Z and R-KDP relations. The VCCA was assessed with three precipitation cases of different regimes including typhoon, mei-yu, and summer stratiform precipitation events. The results showed that a combination of R-Z and R-KDP relations provided more accurate QPEs than each alone because R-Z provides better rainfall estimates for light rains and R-KDP relation is more suitable for heavy rains. The vertical profile corrections for reflectivity and specific differential phase significantly reduced radar QPE errors caused by inadequate sampling of the orographic enhancement of precipitation near the ground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are often triggered by catastrophic events, among which earthquakes and rainfall are the most depicted. However, very few studies have focused on the effect of atmospheric pressure on slope stability, even though weather events such as typhoons are associated with significant atmospheric pressure changes. Indeed, both atmospheric pressure changes and rainfall-induced groundwater level changes can generate large pore pressure changes. In this paper, we assess the respective impacts of atmospheric effects and rainfall over the stability of a hillslope. An analytical model of transient groundwater dynamics is developed to compute slope stability for finite hillslopes. Slope stability is evaluated through a safety factor based on the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion. Both rainfall infiltration and atmospheric pressure variations, which impact slope stability by modifying the pore pressure of the media, are described by diffusion equations. The models were then forced by weather data from different typhoons that were recorded over Taiwan. While rainfall infiltration can induce pore pressure change up to hundreds of kilopascal, its effects are delayed in time due to flow and diffusion. To the contrary, atmospheric pressure change induces pore pressure changes not exceeding a few kilopascal, which propagates instantaneously through the skeleton before diffusion leads to an effective decay of pore pressure. Moreover, the effect of rainfall infiltration on slope stability decreases towards the toe of the hillslope and is cancelled where the water table reaches the surface, leaving atmospheric pressure change as the main driver of slope instability. This study allows for a better insight of slope stability through pore pressure analysis, and shows that atmospheric effects should not always be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) is well known for causing hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) and outbreaks were frequently reported in Taiwan in the past twenty years. The epidemiology and genetic variations of CVA16 in Taiwan from 1998 to 2021 were analyzed in this study. CVA16 infections usually occurred in early summer and early winter, and showed increased incidence in 1998, 2000–2003, 2005, 2007–2008, and 2010 in Taiwan. Little or no CVA16 was detected from 2017 to 2021. CVA16 infection was prevalent in patients between 1 to 3 years old. A total of 69 isolates were sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis based on the VP1 region showed that CVA16 subgenotype B1 was dominantly isolated in Taiwan from 1998 to 2019, and B2 was identified only from isolates collected in 1999 and 2000. There was a high frequency of synonymous mutations in the amino acid sequences of the VP1 region among CVA16 isolates, with the exception of position 145 which showed positive selection. The recombination analysis of the whole genome of CVA16 isolates indicated that the 5′-untranslated region and the non-structural protein region of CVA16 subgenotype B1 were recombined with Coxsackievirus A4 (CVA4) and enterovirus A71 (EVA71) genotype A, respectively. The recombination pattern of subgenotype B2 was similar to B1, however, the 3D region was similar to EVA71 genotype B. Cross-neutralization among CVA16 showed that mouse antisera from various subgenotypes viruses can cross-neutralize different genotype with high neutralizing antibody titers. These results suggest that the dominant CVA16 genotype B1 can serve as a vaccine candidate for CVA16. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes an ensemble of numerical simulations of a heavy rainfall event east of Taiwan on 9 June 2020. Heavy rainfall was produced by quasi-stationary back-building mesoscale convective systems (MCS) associated with a mei-yu front. Global model forecast skill was poor in location and intensity of rainfall. The mesoscale ensemble showed liminal conditions between heavy rainfall or little to no rainfall. The two most accurate and two least accurate ensemble members are selected for analysis via validation against radar-estimated rainfall observations. All members feature moist soundings with low levels of free convection (LFC) and sufficient instability for deep convection. We find that stronger gradients in 100-m θ e and θ v in the most accurate members associated with a near-surface frontal boundary focus the lifting mechanism for deep, moist convection and enhanced rainfall. As the simulations progress, stronger southerly winds in the least accurate members advect drier mid-level air into the region of interest and shift the near-surface boundary further north and west. Analysis of the verification ensemble mean analysis reveals a strong near-surface frontal boundary similarly positioned as in the most accurate members and dry air aloft more similar to that in the least accurate members, suggesting that the positioning of the frontal boundary is more critical to accurately reproducing rainfall patterns and intensity in this case. The analyses suggest that subtle details in the simulation of frontal boundaries and mesoscale flow structures can lead to bifurcations in producing extreme or almost no rainfall. Implications for improved probabilistic forecasts of heavy rainfall events will be discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoon Fanapi (2010) made landfall in Hualien in Taiwan at 0100 UTC 19 September 2010 and left Taiwan at 1200 UTC 19 September 2010, producing heavy rainfall and floods. Fanapi's eyewall was disrupted by the Central Mountain Range (CMR) and reorganized after leaving the CMR. High-resolution simulations (nested down to 1-km horizontal grid size) using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, one simulation using the full terrain (CTL) and another set of simulations where the terrain of Taiwan was removed, were analyzed. Precipitation areas were classified into different subregions by a convective–stratiform separation algorithm to assess the impact of precipitation structure on Fanapi's eyewall evolution. The percentage of deep convection increased from 9% to 20% when Fanapi underwent an eyewall reorganization process while departing the CMR. In the absence of terrain, moderate convection occupied most of the convective regions during the period when Fanapi moved across Taiwan Island. The low-level total vorticity stretching within the convective, stratiform, and weak-echo regions in the no-terrain experiment were of similar magnitudes, but the total vorticity stretching within the convective region at low levels was dominant in the CTL experiment. Total vorticity stretching in the region of deep convection increased after eyewall reorganization, and later became stronger than that in the moderate convection region. In the absence of the CMR, total vorticity stretching in moderate convection dominated. The total vorticity stretching within the deep convective region in the CTL experiment played an essential role in the reorganization of Fanapi's eyewall through a bottom-up process. Significance Statement: When a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Taiwan Island, the Central Mountain Range (CMR) usually disrupts the eyewall and changes the percentage of convective and stratiform precipitation areas. Unlike most typhoons whose eyewalls are weakened after landfall, Typhoon Fanapi's eyewall reorganized and the percentage of deep convection increased from 9% to 20% when Fanapi moved to the west side of the CMR. Understanding how the terrain of Taiwan weakened the vortex circulation of Typhoon Fanapi during landfall and rebuilt the vorticity and eyewall after landfall is important to improve the forecast of TCs with similar track and intensity in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assessed the long-term radar reflectivity ($Z$) biases of collocated S- and C-band dual-polarization radars. The systematic bias, wet-radome effect (WRE), and attenuation effect were investigated. The algorithm of self-consistency utilizes $Z$ , differential reflectivity ($Z_{\mathrm{ dr}}$), and a specific differential phase ($K_{\mathrm{ dp}}$) to estimate the systematic bias and WRE of both radars. Eleven years of disdrometer data in northern Taiwan were used to obtain the self-consistency and $K_{\mathrm{ dp}}$ -based attenuation correction relation coefficients. Subsequently, a series of sensitivity tests were conducted to examine the influence of these coefficients on bias and attenuation corrections. The $K_{\mathrm{ dp}}(Z,Z_{\mathrm{ dr}})$ relationship outperformed that of $K_{\mathrm{ dp}}(Z)$. The $K_{\mathrm{ dp}}(Z,Z_{\mathrm{ dr}})$ relationship with seasonal coefficients and systematic bias-corrected $Z_{\mathrm{ dr}}$ constituted the optimal procedure. The corrected $Z$ of collocated radars was in good agreement, lending further validity to the correction schemes. The results demonstrated that the stable systematic bias values of two radars were −1.89 to −1.14 dB and −2.46 to −1.87 dB. During the WRE period, additional underestimations of $Z$ by nearly 4 and 7 dB were recorded for S- and C-band radars, respectively. The mean value of radar reflectivity near radar ($Z_{\mathrm{ nr}}$) was obtained to identify the WRE period. In this study, an innovative quadratic polynomial fitting equation was proposed to investigate the systematic and WRE biases using $Z_{\mathrm{ nr}}$. Moreover, a pronounced wind intensity dependency of the WRE could be observed in the quadratic polynomial fitting equation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is focused on the modification of a typhoon rainfall climatological model, by using the dataset up to 2006 and including data collected from rain gauge stations established after the 921 earthquake (1999). Subsequently, the climatology rainfall models for westward- and northward-moving typhoons are established by using the typhoon track classification from the Central Weather Bureau. These models are also evaluated and examined using dependent cases collected between 1989 and 2006 and independent cases collected from 2007 to 2011. For the dependent cases, the average total rainfall at all rain gauge stations forecasted using the climatology rainfall models for westward- (WTRCM12) and northward-moving (N-TRCM12) typhoons is superior to that obtained using the original climatological model (TRCM06). Model W-TRCM12 significantly improves the precipitation underestimation of model TRCM06. The independent cases show that model W-TRCM12 provides better accumulated rainfall forecasts and distributions than model TRCM06. A climatological model for accompanied northeastern monsoons (A-TRCM12) for special typhoon types has also been established. The current ATRCM12 model only contains five historical cases and various typhoon combinations can cause precipitation in different regions. Therefore, precipitation is likely to be signifi- cantly overestimated and high false alarm ratios are likely to occur in specific regions. For example, model A-TRCM12 significantly overestimates the rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mitag, an independent case from 2007. However, it has a higher probability of detection than model TRCM06. From a disaster prevention perspective, a high probability of detection is much more important than a high false alarm ratio. The modified models can contribute significantly to operational forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical rainfall potential (TRaP) technique is a simple concept that serves as a useful tool for forecasters in predicting the accumulated rainfall from typhoons. This research seeks to propose an algorithm for improving the accuracy of the results retrieved from the TRaP technique by taking into account the terrain’s influence on a typhoon’s rainfall pattern over Taiwan. The climatological percentages of the accumulated rainfall in Taiwan for six different typhoon tracks were established via statistical methods. By using the rainfall percentages with the original TRaP technique, results showed that the original TRaP technique could retrieve a graphical representation of the accumulated rainfall from typhoons for both oceans and flat land areas. When factoring in Taiwan’s terrain, the accuracy in a typhoon’s accumulated rainfall estimation is seen to further improve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 0200 to 1000 LST 2 June 2017, the shallow, east–west-oriented mei-yu front (<1 km) cannot move over the Yang-Ming Mountains (with peaks ∼1120 m) when it first arrives. The postfrontal cold air at the surface is deflected by the Yang-Ming Mountains and moves through the Keelung River and Tamsui River valleys into the Taipei basin. The shallow northerly winds are anchored along the northern side of the Yang-Ming Mountains for 8 h. In addition, the southwesterly barrier jet with maximum winds in the 900–950-hPa layer brings in abundant moisture and converges with the northwesterly flow in the southwestern flank of the mei-yu frontal cyclone. Therefore, torrential rain (>600 mm) occurs over the northern side of the Yang-Ming Mountains. From 1100 to 1200 LST, with the gradual deepening of the postfrontal cold air, the front finally passes over the Yang-Ming Mountains and arrives at the Taipei basin, which results in an east–west-oriented rainband with the rainfall maxima over the northwestern coast and Taipei basin. From 1300 to 1400 LST, the frontal rainband continues to move southward with rainfall over the northwestern slopes of the Snow Mountains. In the prefrontal southwesterly flow, the orographic lifting of the moisture-laden low-level winds results in heavy rainfall on the southwestern slopes of the Snow Mountains and the Central Mountain Range. With the terrain of the Yang-Ming Mountains removed in the high-resolution model, the mei-yu front moves quickly southward without a rainfall maximum over the northern tip of Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of extreme climate due to global climate transition, rainwater adaptation in resilient cities is a key issue for countries. The purpose of this study is to identify the rainfall hotspots in urban areas and investigate whether these hotspots have environmental conditions for rainfall adaptation. The study site is located in the Taichung area. This study collects rainfall data from rainfall stations at elevations below 500 m, employs QGIS (quantum GIS) to create an inverse distance weighted graphical distribution of rainfall to determine the hotspots where the maximum and minimum rainfalls occur, identifies the topography, green spaces, water areas, and buildings in the catchment, integrates the coverage area in the project, and estimates the amount of rainwater that could be directly absorbed by the land within the catchment. The results of this study show that, among the rainfall stations at an elevation below 100 m where most urban areas are located, the Taichung rainfall station is the area with the highest number of rainfall events from May to August. Without reliance on gully or river drainage, the natural infiltration of the land in the catchment could only adjust to 80 mm of heavy precipitation within 24 h of the rainfall warning level of the Central Weather Bureau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall regimes of Taiwan are investigated using the 18-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data (1980-97), the available 38-yr daily rainfall data from 25 conventional surface stations around Taiwan (1961-98), and the 5-yr hourly rainfall data (1994-98) from 249 high-spatial-resolution Automatic Rainfall and Meteorological Telemetry System (ARMTS) stations. Rainfall over the island is usually generated either by transient disturbances embedded in the prevailing monsoon flow or local rainshowers related to terrain or local winds. With the change in the direction of the prevailing winds between the warm and cold seasons as well as a variety of transient subsynoptic disturbances occurring in different seasons (e.g., winter monsoon cold surges, springtime cold fronts, mei-yu fronts in the early summer, typhoons in summer months, and cold fronts in fall) and the presence of the Central Mountain Range, the regional rainfall climate over the island shows large spatial and temporal variabilities. Nevertheless, despite the presence of these transient disturbances, it is shown that the horizontal distributions of climatological rainfall patterns for different rainfall regimes are strongly dependent on the direction of the low-level prevailing flow with much higher rainfall on the windward side. Furthermore, the seasonal variations in rainfall amount and type (light precipitation versus convective precipitation) are also dependent on the thermodynamic stratification and the availability of moisture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic model error schemes, such as the stochastic perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT) and independent SPPT (iSPPT) schemes, have become an increasingly accepted method to represent model error associated with uncertain subgrid-scale processes in ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). While much of the current literature focuses on the effects of these schemes on forecast skill, this research examines the physical processes by which iSPPT perturbations to the microphysics parameterization scheme yield variability in ensemble rainfall forecasts. Members of three 120-member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ensemble case studies, including two distinct heavy rain events over Taiwan and one over the northeastern United States, are ranked according to an area-averaged accumulated rainfall metric in order to highlight differences between high- and low-precipitation forecasts. In each case, high-precipitation members are characterized by a damping of the microphysics water vapor and temperature tendencies over the region of heaviest rainfall, while the opposite is true for low-precipitation members. Physically, the perturbations to microphysics tendencies have the greatest impact at the cloud level and act to modify precipitation efficiency. To this end, the damping of tendencies in high-precipitation forecasts suppresses both the loss of water vapor due to condensation and the corresponding latent heat release, leading to grid-scale supersaturation. Conversely, amplified tendencies in low-precipitation forecasts yield both drying and increased positive buoyancy within clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the prevalence, distribution, and genotypes of adenoviruses (AdVs) and noroviruses (NoVs) in the Puzi River and surrounding areas in Taiwan. The viruses in the water samples were isolated using the membrane filtration method and the viral nucleic acids were extracted. The RNA of NoVs was reverse‐transcribed into complementary DNA using reverse transcriptase‐polymerase chain reaction. AdVs and NoVs were detected using nested PCR. Genotyping and phylogenetic analyses were performed to identify the various viral genotypes in the water samples. Human adenovirus (HAdVs) and porcine adenovirus (PAdVs) were the predominant genotypes in the water samples. The prevalence of F species HAdVs serotype 41 (79.2%) and C species PAdVs serotype 5 (18.1%) was higher than that of other serotypes. Among NoVs, genogroup GII was more prevalent than GI. In particular, GII.4 (21.2%) and GII.17 (18.2%) were the predominant genotypes, which was consistent with the clinical findings. The prevalence of both AdVs and NoVs was higher in the winter than spring, summer and autumn seasons. AdVs and NoVs detection results were statistically analyzed by investigating their association with water quality indicators. The results revealed that the presence of AdVs was significantly correlated with the heterotrophic bacterial count, total coliform Escherichia coli, turbidity, salinity, and dissolved oxygen. Meanwhile, the presence of NoVs was only significantly correlated with temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Microbial pollution sources may include urban runoff and discharge of water from livestock farms situated near the river and tributaries within this region of Taiwan. Future studies should include comparisons of the presence of AdVs and NoVs in these known pollution sources and water quality monitoring of these watersheds, as this will allow potential identification of pollution sources. Additionally, remediation strategies must be developed to minimize viral contamination in the river ecosystem. Plain Language Summary: Adenovirus and norovirus contamination in the river and coastal ecosystem were associated with several infections and health risks such as gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases in humans and animals. In this work, we have investigated the occurrence, distribution and genotypes of adenovirus and norovirus in the Puzi River, its tributaries, Dongshi fishing port and nearby coastal oyster breeding area in four seasons. We have found that the Puzi River has shown a higher prevalence of adenovirus and norovirus than other study sites and the incidence of both viruses was high in the winter season. Human adenovirus 41, porcine adenovirus 5, norovirus GII.4 and GII.17 were the predominant in the water samples. The outflow from the nearby livestock wastewater channels and urban runoff into the river and coastal ecosystem may be a source of contamination of the study sites. The occurrence of both the viruses is significantly correlated with the water quality parameters, which suggested that adenovirus and norovirus are some of the potential water quality indicators. Further, identifying the natural and anthropogenic activities in the contaminated sites can aid in framing the risk management strategies of the related river and coastal ecosystem. Key Points: AdVs prevalence is higher in the river than in other sitesHAdV 41 and PAdV 5 are the dominant genotypes over all sample sitesDominant NoVs genotypes are GII.4 and GII.17, they were associated with clinical cases [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoon Saola affected Taiwan from July 30, 2012, to August 03, 2012. It started in a northwestward track, and it was weakening to Category 1 storm and had a sharp cyclonic deflection track when it was about to made landfall in Taiwan on August 02. After the deflection, the typhoon moved northward and then northwestward across northern Taiwan. The cyclonic southward deflection and the northward motion constituted 12 h of looping motion which increase both the typhoon duration time and the rainfall in northeastern Taiwan. This research is to study the looping motion by the Weather Research and Forecasting model for this very weak typhoon. The model is able to reproduce the looping motion similar to that of observation. The model shows a strong asymmetry of precipitation and cross‐mountain downslope wind near the typhoon center while the typhoon track is looping toward the southwest. The potential vorticity (PV) tendency diagnosis confirms that diabatic heating and downslope wind vertical stretching are the major contributors to tropical cyclone southwestward motion, rather than the commonly referred channeling effect. The asymmetric rainfall disappears when the tropical cyclone starts moving northward in its end‐stage of looping. The northward motion is dominated by horizontal advection of PV tendency. The results highlight the influence of convection and downslope wind near steep terrain on the initial southward motion in the looping track. The model sensitivity study indicates that a large part of track uncertainty resides in the interaction of model internal dynamics and model cloud microphysics. Plain Language Summary: Typhoon Saola, a weak Category one storm, affected Taiwan from July 30, 2012, to August 03, 2012. This northwestward moving typhoon experience a sharp cyclonic deflection motion when it was about to made landfall, and then move northwestward across northern Taiwan. The cyclonic southward deflection and the northward motion constituted 12 h of looping motion which increase both the typhoon duration time and the rainfall in northeastern Taiwan. Our numerical simulation reproduces the looping motion similar to that of observation. The model simulates, in general agreement with the observations, a strong asymmetry of precipitation and cross‐mountain downslope wind near the typhoon center while the typhoon track is looping toward the southwest. The asymmetric rainfall disappears when the tropical cyclone starts moving northward in its end‐stage of looping. We demonstrate that diabatic heating and downslope wind vertical stretching are the major contributors to tropical cyclone southwestward motion, rather than the commonly referred channeling effect. The horizontal advection of potential vorticity tendency then dominates for the northward motion in the end‐stage. The model sensitivity experiments indicate that a large part of track uncertainty resides in the interaction of model internal dynamics and model cloud microphysics. Key Points: The looping track of a weak Typhoon Saola near the terrain island of Taiwan is simulated with Weather Research and Forecasting modelThe PV tendency analysis highlights the influence of convection and downslope wind near Taiwan on the southward motion of looping trackA large part of looping track uncertainty resides in model cloud microphysics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The radar-retrieved refractivity fields provide detailed depictions of the near-surface moisture distribution at the meso-γ scale. This study represents a novel application of the refractivity fields by examining the spatiotemporal characteristics of moisture variability in a summertime coastal region in Taiwan over 4 weeks. The physiography in Taiwan lends itself to a variety of flow features and corresponding moisture behavior, which has not been well studied. High-resolution refractivity analyses demonstrate how a highly variable moisture field is related to the complex interaction between the synoptic-scale winds, diurnal local circulations, terrain, storms, and heterogeneous land use. On average, higher refractivity (water vapor) is observed along the coastline and refractivity decreases inland toward the foothills. Under weak synoptic forcing conditions, the daytime refractivity field develops differently under local surface wind directions determined by the synoptic-scale prevailing wind and the sea-breeze fronts. High moisture penetrates inland toward the foothills with southwesterly winds, but it stalls along the coastline with southerly and northwesterly winds. The moisture distribution may further affect the occurrence of the inland afternoon storms. During the nighttime, the dry downslope wind decreases the moisture from the foothills toward the coast and forms a refractivity gradient perpendicular to the meridionally oriented mountains. Furthermore, the refractivity fields illustrate higher-resolution moisture distribution over surface station point measurements by showing the lagged daytime sea-breeze front between the urban and rural areas and the detailed nighttime heterogeneous moisture distribution related to land-use and rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of a heavy rainfall event that occurred on 19 August 2014 in northern Taiwan is investigated using observed data and analyzed using a newly developed system, namely, IBM_VDRAS. This system is based on a four-dimensional (4D) Variational Doppler Radar Assimilation System (VDRAS) that is capable of assimilating radar observations and surface station data over a complex terrain by adopting the Immersed Boundary Method (IBM). This event has precipitating processes and track different from those frequently observed in northern Taiwan. From the surface observations and the high spatiotemporal resolution analysis fields generated by IBM_VDRAS, it has been found that the rainfall process started with two single convective cells triggered by the interaction between land-sea breeze and terrain in two different cities (Taoyuan and Taipei). The outflow of one of the convective cells developed in Taoyuan City at an earlier time along with the outflow of another convective system that developed in the Taipei Basin; the former provided favorable conditions to intensify the latter. The enhanced major convective cell moved to the Taipei City metropolitan area and produced 80-mm precipitation within approximately 2.5 h. The kinematic, thermodynamic, and microphysical fields of the convective cells were analyzed in detail to explain the mechanisms that helped maintain the structure of the rainfall system. Sensitivity experiments of quantitative precipitation forecast revealed that the terrains prevent the location of major rainfall from shifting outside of the Taipei Basin. By assimilating the surface data, the model can better predict the rainfall position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan regularly experiences precipitation extremes of hundreds of millimeters per day, especially between May and September. In this study, Taiwan's extreme rainfall (ER) is analyzed over a 56-yr time period in different seasons and geographic regions, using a recently released, high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset. ER is defined using a seasonally and geographically varying 99th-percentile threshold to better resolve the characteristics of the most intense rainfall seen in different locations and times of year. The resulting monthly ER rates are largest in typhoon season and smallest in fall, winter, and spring. ER is spatially homogeneous in the mei-yu and typhoon seasons and concentrated in northern Taiwan during the rest of the year. A trend analysis revealed a positive trend in island-mean ER for the winter, spring, and typhoon seasons. In winter and spring, these trends are most pronounced in the north. In the mei-yu season, ER has increased most over the southwestern mountain slopes; in typhoon season, ER has increased consistently over much of Taiwan. These changes often exceed 1% yr−1. In many areas, typhoon season accounts for the largest fraction of the observed annual ER trend. TCs produce most of the observed typhoon season ER and ER trend, with nearly half of the typhoon season ER trend being associated with increases in TC frequency and duration around central and northern Taiwan. Certain regional changes in ER characteristics, particularly in areas with low sample size or complex seasonal contributions, merit further investigation in future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable hourly flood forecasting using weather radar rainfall data for early warning system is essential for reducing natural disaster risk during extreme typhoon events. This study proposed a novel approach integrated with physics-based WASH123D and HEC-HMS models to forecast 1 h ahead flood level in the Fengshan Creek basin, northern Taiwan. The comparison was done with data-driven support vector machine (SVM) model, and performances were assessed by using statistical indicators (root mean square error, correlation coefficient, the error of time to peak flood level, the error of peak flood). Four typhoons and two plum rain events (with 620 data sets) were selected for the process of model calibration and validation. The model performs better when it used quantitative precipitation estimate radar data rather than rain gauge data. Results of using 1 h ahead quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) as input for flood forecasting were encouraging but not feasible to use directly for early flood warning system due to errors in peak flood levels and timing. Therefore, the improvement in accuracy of 1 h ahead flood forecasting was done using physics-based approach and SVM model. The systematic comparison revealed that the SVM model is an attractive way out to improve the accuracy of QPF forecasted flood levels but unable to fully describe the flood level patterns in terms of timings and flood peaks, while the results obtained by the physics-based approach were accurate and much better than the SVM model. The approach fully described the physics of hydrograph patterns and outputs have exactly the same 1 h ahead predictions, in excellent agreement with observations. The reliable and accurate reflections of timing and amount of flood peaks in all selected typhoons by a newly developed physics-based approach with its operational nature are recommended to use by the government in the future for early warning to reduce the flood impacts during typhoon events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is critically affected by aerosols, which alter cloud lifecycles and precipitation distribution through radiative and microphysical effects. In this study, aerosol and cloud property datasets from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), onboard the Aqua satellite, and surface observations, including aerosol concentrations, raindrop size distribution, and meteorological parameters, were used to statistically quantify the effects of aerosols on low-level warm-cloud microphysics and drizzle over northern Taiwan during multiple fall seasons (from 15 October to 30 November of 2005–2017). Our results indicated that northwestern Taiwan, which has several densely populated cities, is dominated by low-level clouds (e.g., warm, thin, and broken clouds) during the fall season. The observed effects of aerosols on warm clouds indicated aerosol indirect effects (i.e., increased aerosol loading caused a decrease in cloud effective radius (CER)), an increase in cloud optical thickness, an increase in cloud fraction, and a decrease in cloud-top temperature under a fixed cloud water path. Quantitatively, aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI=-∂ln⁡CER∂ln⁡α|CWP , changes in CER relative to changes in aerosol amounts) were 0.07 for our research domain and varied between 0.09 and 0.06 in the surrounding remote (i.e., ocean) and polluted (i.e., land) areas, respectively, indicating aerosol indirect effects were stronger in the remote area. From the raindrop size distribution analysis, high aerosol loading resulted in a decreased frequency of drizzle events, redistribution of cloud water to more numerous and smaller droplets, and reduced collision–coalescence rates. However, during light rain (≤1 mm h -1), high aerosol concentrations drove raindrops towards smaller droplet sizes and increased the appearance of drizzle drops. This study used long-term surface and satellite data to determine aerosol variations in northern Taiwan, effects on clouds and precipitation, and observational strategies for future research on aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote rainfall related to tropical cyclones (TCs) can be attributed to interaction between the northeasterly monsoon and TC circulation (hereafter monsoon mode), and topographic blocking and lifting effects (hereafter topographic mode). Typhoon Khanun (2017) is a case in point affected by both modes. The objective of this study is to understand the key factors leading to uncertainty in the TC-induced remote rainfall. Ensemble simulations are conducted, with the ensemble members related to the monsoon mode classified into subtypes based on the geographic location of the precipitation maxima. The results demonstrate that frontogenesis and terrain-induced uplifting are the main mechanisms leading to the heavy precipitation in northeastern Taiwan, while the orographic lifting and the interaction between the TC circulation and the topographically blocked northeasterlies result in the heavy rainfall in southeastern Taiwan. For the topographic mode, at a larger rainfall threshold, strong relation is found between the inflow angle of the TC circulation and the cumulative frequency of the rainfall, while at a smaller rainfall threshold, rainfall cumulative frequency is related to the ensemble track directions. Sensitivity experiments with TC-related moisture reduced (MR) and the terrain of Taiwan removed (TR) show that the average of the 3-day accumulated rainfall is reduced by 40% and more than 90% over the mountainous area inMRand TR, respectively. Overall, this study highlights the fact that multiple mechanisms contribute to remote rainfall processes in Khanun, particularly the orographic forcing, thus providing better insights into the predictability of TC remote rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A precipitation separation approach using a support vector machine method was developed and tested on a C-band polarimetric weather radar located in Taiwan (RCMK). Different from those methods requiring whole-volume scan data, the proposed approach utilizes polarimetric radar data from the lowest unblocked tilt to classify precipitation echoes into either stratiform or convective types. In this algorithm, inputs of radar reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and the separation index are integrated through a support vector machine. The weight vector and bias in the support vector machine were optimized using well-classified data from two precipitation events. The proposed approach was tested with three precipitation events, including a widespread mixed stratiform and convective event, a tropical typhoon precipitation event, and a stratiform-precipitation event. Results from the multi-radar–multi-sensor (MRMS) precipitation classification algorithm were used as the ground truth in the performance evaluation. The performance of the proposed approach was also compared with the approach using the separation index only. It was found that the proposed method can accurately classify the convective and stratiform precipitation and produce better results than the approach using the separation index only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 23 July 2014, a commercial aircraft (GE222) crashed near the Ma-Gong Airport on Penghu Island off the southwestern coast of Taiwan as it struggled to land in the stormy weather that was caused by the outer tropical cyclone rainbands (OTCRs) of Typhoon Matmo. This study aims to document the detailed aspects of airflow and precipitation of OTCRs through high-resolution radar and surface observations and to identify how these observed structures contribute to aviation weather hazards. Analyses indicate that the weather at the airport was significantly influenced by the passage of three OTCRs (R1, R2, and R3), and these rainbands share common characteristics of squall-line-like airflow and precipitation structures. As GE222 descended to approach the runway and flew immediately behind and roughly parallel to the leading edge of R3, the aircraft encountered the heaviest precipitation of the rainband and the prominent crosswind that was a manifestation of the rear-to-front flow generated locally by the rainband. The heavy rain–induced poor visibility and the occurrence of strong crosswinds were primary weather hazards affecting this flight event. Momentum budget analyses suggest that the frontward pressure gradient force provided by the near-surface, convectively generated mesohigh played a major role in driving the low-level rear-to-front flow inside the band. The results from the present study imply that closely monitoring convective activities in the outer regions of tropical cyclones and their potential transformation into squall-line-like storms is crucial to complement the routine aviation alert of severe weather under the influence of tropical cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy rainfall and strong wind are the two main sources of disasters that are caused by tropical cyclones (TCs), and typhoons with different characteristics may induce different agricultural losses. Traditionally, the classification of typhoon intensity has not considered the amount of rainfall. Here, we propose a novel approach to calculate the typhoon type index (TTI). A positive TTI represents a "wind type" typhoon, where the overall damage in a certain area from TCs is dominated by strong wind. On the other hand, a negative TTI represents a "rain type" typhoon, where the overall damage in a certain area from TCs is dominated by heavy rainfall. From the TTI, the vulnerability of crop losses from different types of typhoons can be compared and explored. For example, Typhoon Kalmaegi (2008) was classified as a rain-type typhoon (TTI = −1.22). The most affected crops were oriental melons and leafy vegetables. On the contrary, Typhoon Soudelor (2015) was classified as a significant wind-type typhoon in most of Taiwan (TTI = 1.83), and the damaged crops were mainly bananas, bamboo shoots, pomelos, and other crops that are easily blown off by strong winds. Through the method that is proposed in this study, we can understand the characteristics of each typhoon that deviate from the general situation and explore the damages that are mainly caused by strong winds or heavy rainfall at different locations. This approach can provide very useful information that is important for the disaster analysis of different agricultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe weather nowcasting is a crucial mission of atmospheric science for the betterment of society to save life, limb, and property. In this study, composite radar data from the Central Weather Bureau of 16 typhoons are collected to examine the statistical performance of the McGill Algorithm for Precipitation nowcasting using Lagrangian Extrapolation (MAPLE) over Taiwan, an extrapolation algorithm that predicts future precipitation based on current radar echoes. In addition, instead of mixing the precipitation between radar extrapolation and numerical model forecast as in previous studies, a blending system is formed by synthesizing the wind information from model forecast with the echo extrapolation motion field via a variational algorithm to improve the nowcasting system. The statistical results of the radar echo extrapolation for 16 typhoon cases show that while the quantitative precipitation nowcasting skill can persist for up to 2 h, significant distortion for the rotational system is found after 2 h. On the other hand, the blending system helps to capture and maintain the rotation of typhoon rainband structures. The blending system extends the nowcasting skill by 1 h to a total of 3 h. Furthermore, the blending scheme performs especially well after the typhoon makes landfall in Taiwan. For disaster prevention and mitigation, this blending nowcasting technique may provide effective weather information immediately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainwater infiltration into the ground is liable for the rising of transient pore water pressure during rainfall. Due to the significant role of infiltration in controlling slope failure, this study aims to investigate the factors affecting the rainwater infiltration during extreme rainfall. Parametric studies on the Green-Ampt infiltration model were performed to evaluate the effect of the parameters such as soil type, moisture-suction and slope angle. In this study, a new parameter (Mψ) was introduced as moisture-suction as the product of the suction head at the wetting front, and volumetric water content deficit. Rainfall condition has been collected from three typhoons attacking Taiwan in July 2006. The results showed that the increase in saturated hydraulic conductivity and moisture- suction parameter could increase the infiltration rate. The infiltration decreases with the increase of the slope angle of the surface. For slope made of high permeability soil, the significant variation in moisture-suction has changed the infiltration rate considerably compared with the slope covered with the lower permeability material. This study proposes a new graphical aid to represent the basic Green-Ampt equation for the sloping of various gradients. Comparing the infiltration for sloping surface and horizontal surface, the reduction of infiltration rate is given by ksat (1 - cos β). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, long-term (10 years) raindrop size distribution (RSD) measurements from the Joss-Waldvogel Disdrometer (JWD) installed at the National Central University (NCU) (24°58'6N, 121°11'27E), Taiwan, and the vertical profile of radar reflectivity were used to analyze the variations in the gamma parameters of six seasons (winter, spring, mei-yu, summer, typhoon, and autumn) and types of precipitation. The normalized gamma distribution of RSD revealed that the highest mean Dm (mass-weighted average diameter) values occurred in the summer, whereas the highest mean log10 Nw (normalized intercept parameter) values were found in the winter. Furthermore, most of the rain falling at a rate of less than 20 mm h-1 occurs in Northern Taiwan. In this study, we used radar reflectivity to differentiate between convective and stratiform systems. It was revealed that the mean Dm values are higher in convective systems, whereas the mean log10 Nw values are higher in stratiform systems. The structure of RSD in stratiform systems remains constant in all seasons; however, convection is similar to maritime type. The microphysical characteristics that are responsible for the different RSD features in different seasons and types of precipitation are illustrated with the help of contoured frequency by altitude diagrams of radar reflectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cycling run, which began 36 h before the model forecast, was employed to assimilate special Terrain-influenced Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (TiMREX) soundings, Global Telecommunications System (GTS) data, and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) refractivity profiles to improve the model initial conditions provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) to study a coastal, heavy rainfall event over southwestern Taiwan during 15-16 June 2008. The 36-h cycling run with data assimilation (DA_ALL_DATA run) has a positive impact on the depiction of subsynoptic flow in the model initial conditions at 1200 UTC 15 June, including the warm moist tongue and southwesterly monsoon flow over the open ocean. Furthermore, the cold pool caused by the evaporative cooling of antecedent rains and orographic blocking over southwestern Taiwan are better resolved in the nested high-resolution domain in the DA_ALL_DATA run as compared to the initial conditions provided by the NCEP GFS. As a result, the heavy rainfall along the southwestern coast and afternoon localized heavy rainfall over northern Taiwan are better predicted in the DA_ALL_DATA run. Model sensitivity tests are also performed to diagnose the effects of terrain and rain-evaporative cooling on the intensity and depth of the cold pool and degree of orographic blocking on the southwesterly flow over southwestern Taiwan. It is apparent that including rain-evaporative cooling from antecedent rains and orographic effects in the model initial conditions are important to account for the predicted rainfall distribution of this coastal rainfall event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer is a dry season in northern Taiwan. By contrast, the Taipei basin, located in this region, has its maximum rainfall during summer (15 June-31 August), when 78% of this rainfall is contributed by afternoon thunderstorms. This thunderstorm activity occurs during only 20 days in summer. Because of the pronounced impacts on the well-being of three million people in the basin and the relative infrequency of occurrence, forecasting thunderstorm events is an important operational issue in the Taipei basin. The basin's small size (30 km × 60 km), with two river exits and limited thunderstorm occurrence days, makes the development of a thunderstorm activity forecast model for this basin a great challenge. Synoptic analysis reveals a thunderstorm day may develop from morning synoptic conditions free of clouds/rain, with a NW-SE-oriented dipole located south of Taiwan and southwesterlies straddling the low and high of this dipole. The surface meteorological conditions along the two river valleys exhibit distinct diurnal variations of pressure, temperature, dewpoint depression, relative humidity, and land-sea breezes. The primary features of the synoptic conditions and timings of the diurnal cycles for the four surface variables are utilized to develop a two-step hybrid forecast advisory for thunderstorm occurrence. Step 1 validates the 24-h forecasts for the 0000 UTC (0800 LST) synoptic conditions and timings for diurnal variations for the first five surface variables on thunderstorm days. Step 2 validates the same synoptic and surface meteorological conditions (including sea-breeze onset time) observed on the thunderstorm day. The feasibility of the proposed forecast advisory is successfully demonstrated by these validations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the seasonal difference and the observable presence/absence of human adenovirus (HAdV) in the Puzih River basin in Taiwan was investigated. A total of 288 water samples were collected from 24 sites from March 2014 to February 2015. Human AdV analysis of sample was subjected to viral concentration using a GN-6 Metricel® filter, followed by DNA extraction, nested-PCR, and qPCR. Human AdV was detected in 34.3 % (99/288) of the entire river water sample. A higher percentage of HAdV (76.4 %) was obtained during the winter. The HAdV median concentration was relatively high in fall (1.4 × 10 copies/L) and winter (2.8 × 10 copies/L). Significant difference and correlation were found between the seasonal variation of HAdV and water quality parameters, including heterotrophic plate count, total coliform, water temperature, and turbidity. The most frequently identified HAdV (subgenus F) serotype was 41. Human AdV-41 is the main cause of gastroenteritis and should be considered for associated human health risk potential in the Puzih River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examination of the development of cold season heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events around the South China Sea (SCS) from their parent cold surge vortices (CSVs) shows three new development processes. First, the formation mechanism of the parent CSV of an HRF event [CSV(HRF)] has a preference as to geographic location, flow type of the cold surge inside the SCS, and time of day. The surface trough east of the Philippines, Taiwan, and southern Japan island chain in late fall and the near-equator trough across Borneo in winter facilitate the CSV(HRF) formation in two regions-the vicinity of the Philippines and Borneo. The formation of the Philippine (Borneo) CSV(HRF) occurs at 0600 UTC (0000 UTC) with involvement from the Philippine Sea (PHS)-type (SCS type) of cold surge flow. Second, the flow type of the cold surge determines the CSV(HRF) propagation across the South China Sea. The PHS-type (SCS type) facilitates (hinders) the CSV(HRF) westward propagation. This occurs because the easterly (northerly) flow is greater than (less than) the northerly (easterly) flow at the maximum isotach location of the cold surge flow associated with CSV(HRF) and is centered east of the demarcation line for propagation. This flow-type contrast is substantiated by the vorticity budget analysis for CSV(HRF). The positive 925-hPa vorticity tendency is located west of (coincident with) the 925-hPa vorticity center for the PHS-type (SCS type) of cold surge. Third, the CSV(HRF) development into a HRF event is achieved through multiple interactions of former vortices with sequential cold surges across the South China Sea. The first two CSV(HRF) development processes are reported herein; the last process is presented in Part II. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]