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Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to retrospectively exaggerate one's foresight knowledge about the outcome of an event. Cognitive processes influenced by newly obtained outcome information are used to explain the HB phenomenon, but the neural correlates remain unknown. This study investigated HB in the context of election results using a memory design and functional magnetic resonance imaging for the first time. Participants were asked to predict and recall the percentage of votes obtained by (pairs of) candidates before and after an election. The results revealed that 88% of participants showed HB by recalling that their predictions were closer to the actual outcomes than they really were; and participants had HB for 38% of the events. The HB effect was associated with activation in the medial superior frontal gyrus and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), which have been implicated in updating an old belief due to new information and is similar to the process of reconstruction bias. Furthermore, participants with a greater HB effect showed greater activation of the left IFG. In conclusion, we successfully observed the HB phenomenon in election results, and our imaging results suggested that the HB phenomenon might involve reconstruction bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incidentally discovered solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) caused by nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) is uncommon, and its optimal treatment strategy remains uncertain. This cohort study determined the clinical characteristics and outcome of asymptomatic patients with NTM-SPN after surgical resection. Resected SPNs with culture-positive for NTM in six hospitals in Taiwan during January, 2010 to January, 2017 were identified. Asymptomatic patients without a history of NTM-pulmonary disease (PD) or same NTM species isolated from the respiratory samples were selected. All were followed until May 1, 2019. A total of 43 patients with NTM-SPN were enrolled. Mycobacterium avium complex (60%) and M. kansasii (19%) were the most common species. The mean age was 61.7 ± 13.4. Of them, 60% were female and 4% had history of pulmonary tuberculosis. The NTM-SPN was removed by wedge resection in 38 (88%), lobectomy in 3 (7%) and segmentectomy in 2 (5%). Caseating granuloma was the most common histologic feature (58%), while chronic inflammation accounts for 23%. Mean duration of the follow-up was 5.2 ± 2.8 years (median: 4.2 years [2.5–7.0]), there were no mycobacteriology recurrence or NTM-PD development. In conclusion, surgical resection is likely to curative for incidentally discovered NTM-SPN in asymptomatic patients without culture evidence of the same NTM species from respiratory specimens, and routine mycobacterium culture for resected SPN might be necessary for differentiating pulmonary tuberculosis and NTM because further treatment differs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: CIS to MS conversion rates vary depending on population cohorts, initial manifestations, and durations of follow-up. Objective: To investigate conversion rate of patients from CIS to MS and the prognostic significance of demographic and clinical variables in Taiwanese population. Design: Nationwide, prospective, multi-centric, observational study from November 2008 to November 2014 with 4 years follow-up. Setting: Multi-centre setting at 5 institutions in Taiwan. Participants: 152 patients having single clinical event potentially suggestive of MS in last 2 years were enrolled as consecutive sample. 33 patients were lost to follow-up and 16 patients did not complete the study.103 patients completed the study. Intervention(s) (for clinical trials) or exposure(s) (for observational studies): Natural progression from first episode of CIS to MS or NMO was observed. Main outcome(s) and measure(s): Variables analysed were ‘proportion of patients converting to MS or NMO after first episode of CIS’, ‘duration between first episode of neurological event and diagnosis of MS’, ‘status of anti-AQP4 IgG’ and ‘length of longest contiguous spinal cord lesion in MS patients’. Association between baseline characteristics and progression to MS from CIS was analyzed using multiple logistic regression. Multivariate time dependent effect of baseline characteristics on progression to MS was plotted. Results: 14.5% patients with CIS converted to MS after 1.1 ± 1.0 years with greater predisposition (18.8%) in those having syndromes referable to the cerebral hemispheres. Conversion rate from ON to MS was 9.7%. 90.9% patients had mild disease course. 46.7% patients had abnormal MRIs at baseline, with 0.6±0.5 contrast enhanced lesions. ‘Below normal BMI’ and ‘MRI lesion load (≥ 4 lesions)’ were identified as risk indicators for the development of MS. Amongst the patients who developed NMO as diagnosed by modern criteria, 80% were positive for anti-AQP4 IgG antibody. Conclusions and relevance: ‘Below normal BMI’ and ‘number of demyelinating lesions (≥4)’ are significant predictors of conversion from CIS to MS. A low conversion rate to MS in Taiwanese CIS patients and majority of them having a mild course and minimal disability suggest the roles of geographic, genetic and ethnic factors. Trial registration: Non-trial observational study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cognitive frailty (CF) featured as frailty plus cognitive impairment was deemed to be a novel target for dementia and disable prevention. The study was intended to investigate the epidemiology of CF and the association between CF and all-cause mortality. Methods: The national representative cohort study was comprised of 1,103 community-living middle-aged and older adults. CF was defined as the co-existence of dynapenia (weakness and/or slowness) and cognitive impairment (1.5 standard deviations below the age-, sex- and education-matched norms in cognitive tests) without known neurodegenerative diseases. Dynapenia was defined by the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia and cognitive function was assessed by the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire. Results: The prevalence of CF was 8.6% in this study. Subjects with CF were older, more likely to be women, having less regular exercise, fewer educational years, more depressive symptoms and greater multimorbidity. Compared to robust individuals, CF was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR: 3.1, 95% CI:1.3–7.7, p = 0.012). Conclusion: Dynapenia and cognitive impairment synergistically contribute to the mortality risk for the participants in this study. Further study is needed to explore the underlying pathophysiology and the reversibility of CF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To interpret how the thickness of the peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) changes with increasing age, axial length, or anterior chamber depth as measured by spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) in the normal elderly population in Taiwan. Methods: A total of 82 volunteers (143 eyes) were enrolled. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the correlation. Results: The RNFL was significantly thinner in the superonasal (p = 0.004), inferotemporal (p = 0.046), and temporolower (p = 0.009) segments with age. The same trend was also observed in the superotemporal (p = 0.330) segment, although it was not statistically significant. The global RNFL thickness decreased by 4.97 μm per decade (β = -0.497; p = 0.021), and thinning was significant in the superonasal (-9.90 μm per decade, p < 0.001) and temporolower (-6.78 μm per decade, p < 0.001) segments; the same trend showed borderline significance in the superotemporal (-6.96 μm per decade, p = 0.073) and inferotemporal (-7.23 μm per decade, p = 0.059) segments. In eyes with longer axial length, the RNFLs significantly decreased in the non-temporal segments. Global RNFL thickness decreased by 3.086 μm for each additional millimeter of axial length (β = -3.086; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Changes in RNFL thickness were correlated with age in the superonasal, superotemporal, inferotemporal, and temporolower segments, and were correlated with axial length in the non-temporal segments. Anterior chamber depth was not correlated with RNFL thickness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Congenital muscular dystrophy (CMD) is a heterogeneous disease entity. The detailed clinical manifestation and causative gene for each subgroup of CMD are quite variable. This study aims to analyze the phenotypes and genotypes of Taiwanese patients with CMD as the epidemiology of CMD varies among populations and has been scantly described in Asia. Methods: A total of 48 patients suspected to have CMD were screened and categorized by histochemistry and immunohistochemistry studies. Different genetic analyses, including next-generation sequencing (NGS), were selected, based on the clinical and pathological findings. Results: We identified 17 patients with sarcolemma-specific collagen VI deficiency (SSCD), 6 patients with merosin deficiency, two with reduced alpha-dystroglycan staining, and two with striking lymphocyte infiltration in addition to dystrophic change on muscle pathology. Fourteen in 15 patients with SSCD, were shown to have COL6A1, COL6A2 or COL6A3 mutations by NGS analysis; all showed marked distal hyperlaxity and normal intelligence but the overall severity was less than in previously reported patients from other populations. All six patients with merosin deficiency had mutations in LAMA2. They showed relatively uniform phenotype that were compatible with previous studies, except for higher proportion of mental retardation with epilepsy. With reduced alpha-dystroglycan staining, one patient was found to carry mutations in POMT1 while another patient carried mutations in TRAPPC11. LMNA mutations were found in the two patients with inflammatory change on muscle pathology. They were clinically characterized by neck flexion limitation and early joint contracture, but no cardiac problem had developed yet. Conclusion: Muscle pathology remains helpful in guiding further molecular analyses by direct sequencing of certain genes or by target capture/NGS as a second-tier diagnostic tool, and is crucial for establishing the genotype-phenotype correlation. We also determined the frequencies of the different types of CMD in our cohort which is important for the development of a specific care system for each disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To evaluate the annual effective dose per capita attributed to computed tomography (CT) examinations in 2013 and to predict the population effective dose from 2000 to 2013 in Taiwan. Methods: A CT examination database collected from 30 hospitals was divided into 22 procedures and classified into six regions: head, neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis, and other, respectively. The effective doses in different regions were evaluated by dose-length product (DLP) multiplied by conversion factors. Results: The CT scan dose parameters were collected from 4,407 patients. For the six scanned regions, the percentages of patients scanned were: head (39.8%), neck (3.9%), chest (23.3%), abdomen (26.7%), pelvis (4.8%), and other (1.6%), respectively. The DLPs per patient (mGy·cm/patient) were head (1,071±225), neck (1,103±615), chest (724±509), abdomen (1,315±550), pelvis (1,231±620) and other (1,407±937), respectively. The number of CT examinations increased rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 7.6%. The number of CT examinations in 2013 was 2.6 times that in 2000. The population effective dose was 0.30 mSv per capita in 2000 and increased to 0.74 mSv per capita in 2013, with an annual growth rate of 7.2%. The growth trend indicates that the effective dose will continue to rise in Taiwan. Conclusion: Some strategies should be applied to cope with this growth. Defining the CT dose reference level stipulated in official recommendations and encouraging the use of iterative reconstruction imaging instead of filtered back-projection imaging could be a useful method for optimizing the effective dose and image quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An entropy-based method is developed to estimate estuarine river discharge from surface velocity measurements. A two-dimensional velocity profile based on the principle of maximum entropy is employed to express the mean velocity as a function of average surface velocity. The entropy-based flow profile is parameterized by the location of maximum velocity in the channel and the shape of the velocity distribution. The entropy parameters are quantified over the tidal cycle to account for the unsteady nature of estuarine flow. The method was tested using experiments conducted at the Danshui River, the largest estuarine system in Taiwan. Surface velocities were measured using an Automated River-Estuary Discharge Imaging System (AREDIS), and full-channel velocity profiles were measured with a moving-boat ADP survey. Entropy parameters were calibrated over the tidal cycle and linearly correlated with the average surface velocity to facilitate estimation from AREDIS measurements. The discharge calculated from average surface velocity and entropy relationships exhibits a 7.7% relative error compared to the ADP velocity profiles. The error nearly doubles when the mean values for entropy parameters are used instead of the variable parameters, indicating the importance of accounting for the unsteady nature of estuarine flows. Furthermore, the effects of measurement coverage area, types of entropy distribution, and wind-induced drift current on the surface velocity-based discharge measurement are evaluated and discussed. Overall, surface velocity measurements in conjunction with the entropy profiles well represent the flow in a complex estuarine environment to provide a reliable estimate of discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]