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Proposed in the late 1980s, cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) is a new intensity measure for earthquake ground motion characterizations, followed by studies and applications such as CAV ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). In this study, two new CAV GMPEs were developed with 24,667 strong-motion records from Taiwan, and the first CAV seismic hazard assessment for Taipei (the most important city in Taiwan) was then conducted using the local CAV models. It shows that the annual rate for the study area to encounter a ground motion with CAV >0.97 g-sec is 0.002 per year, corresponding to a 10% occurrence probability in 50 years. By contrast, the deterministic scenario-based analysis shows that the CAV seismic hazard is about 0.60 g-sec for the study area. Future studies are worth conducting to develop more sophisticated, local CAV GPMEs and to explore more applications of such CAV prediction models, such as the developments of PGA-CAV joint probability distributions for conducting PGA-CAV joint seismic hazard assessments. • First CAV GMPE for Taiwan areas. • More than 4,000 strong motion records used. • CAV-based seismic hazard analysis for Taipei. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Shanchiao Fault is an active normal fault located in the Taipei metropolis, northern Taiwan. Faulting activities have been observed from both the long-term geological data and the short-term GPS surface deformation along the fault. Particularly, with recent studies suggesting the potential of triggering an M 7.0-plus earthquake, the Shanchiao Fault is posing a direct seismic threat to the most important, densely populated Taipei metropolitan area in Taiwan. As a result, this study aims to evaluate the earthquake recurrence probability of the Shanchiao Fault, in an attempt to estimate the seismic hazard and help in decision-making for the Taiwan government. Given the capability of capturing the stochastic nature of tectonic stress accumulating, this study used the Brownian model to calculate the earthquake recurrence of the Shanchiao Fault. From the analysis, the recurrence probabilities of the Shanchiao Fault are determined at 8.3 and 17.4% for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many earthquake empirical models were developed based on the statistics in the past. However, it is commonly seen that a non-local model was applied to a local study without any adjustment. In this paper, a new algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to adjust a non-local model for local applications was presented, including a case study assessing the probability of major earthquake occurrences in Taipei. Specifically, considering the fault length of 36 km and slip rate of 2 mm/yr, it suggests the Sanchiao (or Shanchiao) fault could induce a major earthquake with magnitude M w 7.14±0.17, based on a non-local model integrated with limited local data using the MLE algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]