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This research investigates the relationship between urbanization, land-use land-cover (LULC) changes, and surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) in Tabriz, Iran. Using Landsat satellite data from 2000 to 2021, the study analyzed changes in urban green space (UGS) and their impact on SUHIs. The maximum likelihood classification algorithm was employed to assess LULC changes, while the perceptron neural network model and cellular automaton Markov chain model were used to simulate and predict future LULC dynamics. Various indices, including the UGS Change Intensity Index (CII), Land Use Dynamic Degree Index (LUDD), and UGS Land Index, were used to quantify urban expansion, green space changes, and per capita green space (PCG) availability. The findings revealed a significant increase in built-up area and a subsequent decline in green space. While green space initially increased, it later decreased, leading to a reduction in both UGS area and PCG. Surprisingly, the analysis of heat islands associated with green space and built-up areas showed that built-up areas had a more pronounced mitigating effect on SUHIs compared to green space. Consequently, the green space heat island effect intensified, while the built-up area heat island effect decreased over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]