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Using generalized linear models (GLMs), Jalaludin et al. (2006; J. Exposure Analysis and Epidemiology 16, 225–237) studied the association between the daily number of visits to emergency departments for cardiovascular disease by the elderly (65+) and five measures of ambient air pollution. Bayesian methods provide an alternative approach to classical time series modelling and are starting to be more widely used. This paper considers Bayesian methods using the dataset used by Jalaludin et al. (2006) , and compares the results from Bayesian methods with those obtained by Jalaludin et al. (2006) using GLM methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass burnings either due to Hazards Reduction Burnings (HRBs) in late autumn and early winter or bushfires during summer periods in various part of the world (e.g., CA, USA or New South Wales, Australia) emit large amount of gaseous pollutants and aerosols. The emissions, under favourable meteorological conditions, can cause elevated atmospheric particulate concentrations in metropolitan areas and beyond. One of the pollutants of concern is black carbon (BC), which is a component of aerosol particles. BC is harmful to health and acts as a radiative forcing agent in increasing the global warming due to its light absorption properties. Remote sensing data from satellites have becoming increasingly available for research, and these provide rich datasets available on global and local scale as well as in situ aethalometer measurements allow researchers to study the emission and dispersion pattern of BC from anthropogenic and natural sources. The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) in New South Wales (NSW) has installed recently from 2014 to 2019 a total of nine aethalometers to measure BC in its state-wide air quality network to determine the source contribution of BC and PM2.5 (particulate Matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) in ambient air from biomass burning and anthropogenic combustion sources. This study analysed the characteristics of spatial and temporal patterns of black carbon (BC) in New South Wales and in the Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) of Sydney, Australia, by using these data sources as well as the trajectory HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) modelling tool to determine the source of high BC concentration detected at these sites. The emission characteristics of BC in relation to PM2.5 is dependent on the emission source and is analysed using regression analysis of BC with PM2.5 time series at the receptor site for winter and summer periods. The results show that, during the winter, correlation between BC and PM2.5 is found at nearly all sites while little or no correlation is detected during the summer period. Traffic vehicle emission is the main BC emission source identified in the urban areas but was less so in the regional sites where biomass burnings/wood heating is the dominant source in winter. The BC diurnal patterns at all sites were strongly influenced by meteorology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among industrialised countries, fine particle (PM 2.5 ) and ozone levels in the Sydney metropolitan area of Australia are relatively low. Annual mean PM 2.5 levels have historically remained below 8 μg/m 3 while warm season (November–March) ozone levels occasionally exceed the Australian guideline value of 0.10 ppm (daily 1 h max). Yet, these levels are still below those seen in the United States and Europe. This analysis focuses on two related questions: (1) what is the public health burden associated with air pollution in Sydney; and (2) to what extent would reducing air pollution reduce the number of hospital admissions, premature deaths and number of years of life lost (YLL)? We addressed these questions by applying a damage function approach to Sydney population, health, PM 2.5 and ozone data for 2007 within the BenMAP-CE software tool to estimate health impacts and economic benefits. We found that 430 premature deaths (90% CI: 310–540) and 5800 YLL (95% CI: 3900–7600) are attributable to 2007 levels of PM 2.5 (about 2% of total deaths and 1.8% of YLL in 2007). We also estimate about 630 (95% CI: 410–840) respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions attributable to 2007 PM 2.5 and ozone exposures. Reducing air pollution levels by even a small amount will yield a range of health benefits. Reducing 2007 PM 2.5 exposure in Sydney by 10% would, over 10 years, result in about 650 (95% CI: 430–850) fewer premature deaths, a gain of 3500 (95% CI: 2300–4600) life-years and about 700 (95% CI: 450–930) fewer respiratory and cardiovascular hospital visits. These results suggest that substantial health benefits are attainable in Sydney with even modest reductions in air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate air quality modelling is an essential tool, both for strategic assessment (regulation development for emission controls) and for short-term forecasting (enabling warnings to be issued to protect vulnerable members of society when the pollution levels are predicted to be high). Model intercomparison studies are a valuable support to this work, being useful for identifying any issues with air quality models, and benchmarking their performance against international standards, thereby increasing confidence in their predictions. This paper presents the results of a comparison study of six chemical transport models which have been used to simulate short-term hourly to 24 hourly concentrations of fine particulate matter less than and equal to 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) for Sydney, Australia. Model performance was evaluated by comparison to air quality measurements made at 16 locations for O3 and 5 locations for PM2.5, during three time periods that coincided with major atmospheric composition measurement campaigns in the region. These major campaigns included daytime measurements of PM2.5 composition, and so model performance for particulate sulfate (SO42−), nitrate (NO3−), ammonium (NH4+) and elemental carbon (EC) was evaluated at one site per modelling period. Domain-wide performance of the models for hourly O3 was good, with models meeting benchmark criteria and reproducing the observed O3 production regime (based on the O3/NOx indicator) at 80% or more of the sites. Nevertheless, model performance was worse at high (and low) O3 percentiles. Domain-wide model performance for 24 h average PM2.5 was more variable, with a general tendency for the models to under-predict PM2.5 concentrations during the summer and over-predict PM2.5 concentrations in the autumn. The modelling intercomparison exercise has led to improvements in the implementation of these models for Sydney and has increased confidence in their skill at reproducing observed atmospheric composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of meteorological models to accurately characterise regional meteorology plays a crucial role in the performance of photochemical simulations of air pollution. As part of the research funded by the Australian government's Department of the Environment Clean Air and Urban Landscape hub, this study set out to complete an intercomparison of air quality models over the Sydney region. This intercomparison would test existing modelling capabilities, identify any problems and provide the necessary validation of models in the region. The first component of the intercomparison study was to assess the ability of the models to reproduce meteorological observations, since it is a significant driver of air quality. To evaluate the meteorological component of these air quality modelling systems, seven different simulations based on varying configurations of inputs, integrations and physical parameterizations of two meteorological models (the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)) were examined. The modelling was conducted for three periods coinciding with comprehensive air quality measurement campaigns (the Sydney Particle Studies (SPS) 1 and 2 and the Measurement of Urban, Marine and Biogenic Air (MUMBA)). The analysis focuses on meteorological variables (temperature, mixing ratio of water, wind (via wind speed and zonal wind components), precipitation and planetary boundary layer height), that are relevant to air quality. The surface meteorology simulations were evaluated against observations from seven Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) Automatic Weather Stations through composite diurnal plots, Taylor plots and paired mean bias plots. Simulated vertical profiles of temperature, mixing ratio of water and wind (via wind speed and zonal wind components) were assessed through comparison with radiosonde data from the Sydney Airport BoM site. The statistical comparisons with observations identified systematic overestimations of wind speeds that were more pronounced overnight. The temperature was well simulated, with biases generally between ±2 °C and the largest biases seen overnight (up to 4 °C). The models tend to have a drier lower atmosphere than observed, implying that better representations of soil moisture and surface moisture fluxes would improve the subsequent air quality simulations. On average the models captured local-scale meteorological features, like the sea breeze, which is a critical feature driving ozone formation in the Sydney Basin. The overall performance and model biases were generally within the recommended benchmark values (e.g., ±1 °C mean bias in temperature, ±1 g/kg mean bias of water vapour mixing ratio and ±1.5 m s−1 mean bias of wind speed) except at either end of the scale, where the bias tends to be larger. The model biases reported here are similar to those seen in other model intercomparisons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]