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Cigarette smoking epidemic, which started before the World War II, completely changed the cancer landscape. Reliable incidence data spanning the stepwise spreading epidemic are rare, but the Nordic cancer registries are unique sources in being able to catch the pre-epidemic situation in the female population where smoking became more prevalent after the War. For Swedish men, smoking prevalence has decease early and cancer rates may herald postsmoking rates. We used data from the NORDCAN database, constructed by the cancer registries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, for the analysis of incidence changes in lung and bladder cancers from year 1943 (Denmark), from 1953 (Finland and Norway) and from 1960 (Sweden) until year 2016. The analyses revealed four novel observation relevant to the smoking epidemic. (1) The incidence of lung cancer in Norwegian women in the 1950s, when the smoking prevalence was very low, was 1.8/100 000 (world standard rate), which is at the level of lowest global female rates known to-date; (2) the earliest lung-to-bladder incidence ratio among Norwegian women was 0.64, probably benchmarking the incidence rates prior to the smoking epidemic; (3) bladder cancer incidence for Finnish women diagnosed in the 1950s was 1.2/100 000 which is at the level of the lowest rates currently known and (4) Swedish men with the lowest smoking prevalence in Europe, showed an epochal crossing of lung and bladder cancer incidence rates before year 2015. The data suggest that the approaching of the incidence rates for lung and bladder cancer can be expected in the course of the abating smoking epidemic., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Survival has improved in bladder cancer but few studies have considered extended periods or covered populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge. We analyzed survival in urothelial cancer (UC, of which vast majority are bladder cancers) in Finland and Sweden over a 50-year period (1967-2016) using data from the NORDCAN database. Finland and Sweden are neighboring countries with largely similar health care systems but higher economic resources and health care expenditure in Sweden. We present results on 1- and 5-year relative survival rates, and additionally provide a novel measure, the difference between 1- and 5-year relative survival, indicating how well survival was maintained between these two periods. Over the 50-year period the median diagnostic age has increased by several years and the incidence in the very old patients has increased vastly. Relative 1- year survival rates increased until early 1990s in both countries, and with minor gains later reaching about 90% in men and 85% in women. Although 5-year survival also developed favorably until early 1990s, subsequent gains were small. Over time, age specific differences in male 1-year survival narrowed but remained wide in 5-year survival. For women, age differences were larger than for men. The limitations of the study were lack of information on treatment and stage. In conclusion, challenges are to improve 5-year survival, to reduce the gender gap and to target specific care to the most common patient group, those of 70 years at diagnosis. The most effective methods to achieve survival gains are to target control of tobacco use, emphasis on early diagnosis with prompt action at hematuria, upfront curative treatment and awareness of high relapse requiring regular cystoscopy follow up., Competing Interests: A.H. is shareholder in Targovax ASA. A.H. is employee and shareholder in TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. Other authors declared no conflict of interest.

Global survival studies have shown favorable development in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) treatment but few studies have considered extended periods or covered populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge. We analyzed RCC survival in Finland and Sweden over a 50-year period (1967-2016) using data from the NORDCAN database provided by the local cancer registries. While the health care systems are largely similar in the two countries, the economic resources have been stronger in Sweden. In addition to the standard 1- and 5-year relative survival rates, we calculated the difference between these as a measure of how well survival was maintained between years 1 and 5. Relative 1- year survival rates increased almost linearly in both countries and reached 90% in Sweden and 80% in Finland. Although 5-year survival also developed favorably the difference between 1- and 5-year survival rates did not improve in Sweden suggesting that the gains in 5-year survival were entirely due to gains in 1-year survival. In Finland there was a gain in survival between years 1 and 5, but the gain in 1-years survival was the main contributor to the favorable 5-year survival. Age group specific analysis showed large survival differences, particularly among women. Towards the end of the follow-up period the differences narrowed but the disadvantage of the old patients remained in 5-year survival. The limitations of the study were lack of information on performed treatment and clinical stage in the NORDCAN database. In conclusion, the available data suggest that earlier diagnosis and surgical treatment of RCC have been the main driver of the favorable change in survival during the past 50 years. The main challenges are to reduce the age-specific survival gaps, particularly among women, and push survival gains past year 1., Competing Interests: The authors have read the journal’s policy and have the following competing interests: AH is shareholder in Targovax ASA. AH is also employee and shareholder in TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. Other authors declared no conflict of interest. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products associated with this research to declare.

Background: The dominant risk factor for urinary bladder cancer has been cigarette smoking, but, as smoking prevalence is decreasing in many populations, other risk factors may become uncovered. Such new risk factors could be responsible for halting the declining incidence of bladder cancer. We hypothesize that snuff use by Swedish men may increase the rate for bladder cancer, as snuff contains carcinogenic nitrosamines., Methods: We carried out an ecological study by comparing incidence trends in lung and bladder cancers between Danish, Finnish and Swedish men in order to test if the Swedish bladder cancer rate deviates from the Danish and Finnish ones. We used the NORDCAN database for cancer data from 1960 through 2016 to test the hypothesis., Results: In the three countries, the incidence of lung cancer started to decrease after a peak incidence, and this was later followed by declining incidence in bladder cancer in Denmark from 1990 to 2016 by 14.3%, in Finland by 8.3% but not in Sweden (the decline of 1.4% was not significant). The difference in trends can be partly explained by the increasing incidence in Swedish men aged 70 or more years. Sweden differs from the two other countries by low male smoking prevalence but increasing use of snuff recorded by various surveys., Conclusion: The stable bladder cancer trend for Swedish men was opposite to the declining trends in Denmark, Finland and globally. We suggest that this unusual finding may be related to the increasing use of snuff by Swedish men. Average users of snuff are exposed to at least 3 times higher levels of carcinogenic tobacco-specific nitrosamines than a smoker of one daily pack of cigarettes.