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Aims: We aimed to develop prognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF)., Methods and Results: We evaluated data from 7599 patients in the CHARM programme with CHF with and without left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Multi-variable Cox regression models were developed using baseline candidate variables to predict all-cause mortality (n=1831 deaths) and the composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization (n=2460 patients with events). Final models included 21 predictor variables for CV death/HF hospitalization and for death. The three most powerful predictors were older age (beginning >60 years), diabetes, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) (beginning <45%). Other independent predictors that increased risk included higher NYHA class, cardiomegaly, prior HF hospitalization, male sex, lower body mass index, and lower diastolic blood pressure. The model accurately stratified actual 2-year mortality from 2.5 to 44% for the lowest to highest deciles of predicted risk., Conclusion: In a large contemporary CHF population, including patients with preserved and decreased left ventricular systolic function, routine clinical variables can discriminate risk regardless of EF. Diabetes was found to be a surprisingly strong independent predictor. These models can stratify risk and help define how patient characteristics relate to clinical course.

Background: Patients with heart failure are at increased risk of sudden death and death attributed to progressive pump failure. We assessed the effect of candesartan on cause-specific mortality in patients enrolled in the Candesartan in Heart failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity (CHARM) program., Methods and Results: The CHARM program consisted of 3 component trials that enrolled patients with symptomatic heart failure: CHARM-Alternative (n=2028; LVEF<=40% [corrected] and ACE intolerant), CHARM-Added (n=2548; LVEF<=40%, [corrected] already on ACE inhibitors), and CHARM-Preserved (n=3023; LVEF >40%). Patients were randomized to candesartan, titrated to 32 mg QD, or placebo and were followed up for a median of 37.7 months. All deaths were reviewed by a blinded adjudication committee and categorized according to prespecified definitions on the basis of a narrative and source documentation. The number and rate of deaths by cause were calculated for each of the component trials and the overall program. Of all the patients, 8.5% died suddenly, and 6.2% died of progressive heart failure. Candesartan reduced both sudden death (HR 0.85 [0.73 to 0.99], P=0.036) and death from worsening heart failure (HR 0.78 [0.65 to 0.94], P=0.008). These reductions were most apparent in the patients with LVEF<=40% [corrected]., Conclusions: Candesartan reduced sudden death and death from worsening heart failure in patients with symptomatic heart failure, although this reduction was most apparent in patients with systolic dysfunction.