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Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection has been advocated as a prerequisite for developing multiple sclerosis (MS) and possibly the propagation of the disease. However, the precise mechanisms for such influences are still unclear. A large-scale study investigating the host genetics of EBV serology and related clinical manifestations, such as infectious mononucleosis (IM), may help us better understand the role of EBV in MS pathogenesis. This study evaluates the host genetic factors that influence serological response against EBV and history of IM and cross-evaluates them with MS risk and genetic susceptibility in the Swedish population. Plasma IgG antibody levels against EBV nuclear antigen-1 [EBNA-1, truncated = amino acids (aa) (325-641), peptide = aa(385-420)] and viral capsid antigen p18 (VCAp18) were measured using bead-based multiplex serology for 8744 MS cases and 7229 population-matched control subjects. The MS risk association for high/low EBV antibody levels and history of IM was compared to relevant clinical measures along with sex, age at sampling, and associated HLA allele variants. Genome-wide and HLA allele association analyses were also performed to identify genetic risk factors for EBV antibody response and IM history. Higher antibody levels against VCAp18 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.60-1.88] and EBNA-1, particularly the peptide (OR = 3.13, 95% CI = 2.93-3.35), were associated with an increased risk for MS. The risk increased with higher anti-EBNA-1 IgG levels up to 12× the reference risk. We also identified several independent HLA haplotypes associated with EBV serology overlapping with known MS risk alleles (e.g. DRB1*15:01). Although there were several candidates, no variants outside the HLA region reached genome-wide significance. Cumulative HLA risk for anti-EBNA-1 IgG levels, particularly the peptide fragment, was strongly associated with MS. In contrast, the genetic risk for high anti-VCAp18 IgG levels was not as strongly associated with MS risk. IM history was not associated with class II HLA genes but negatively associated with A*02:01, which is protective against MS. Our findings emphasize that the risk association between anti-EBNA-1 IgG levels and MS may be partly due to overlapping HLA associations. Additionally, the increasing MS risk with increasing anti-EBNA-1 levels would be consistent with a pathogenic role of the EBNA-1 immune response, perhaps through molecular mimicry. Given that high anti-EBNA-1 antibodies may reflect a poorly controlled T-cell defence against the virus, our findings would be consistent with DRB1*15:01 being a poor class II antigen in the immune defence against EBV. Last, the difference in genetic control of IM supports the independent roles of EBNA-1 and IM in MS susceptibility., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain.)

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease affecting millions of people worldwide. Hereditary susceptibility and environmental factors contribute to disease risk. Infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and human herpesvirus 6A (HHV-6A) have previously been associated with MS risk. Other neurotropic viruses, such as rubella virus (RV), are possible candidates in MS aetiopathogenesis, but previous results are limited and conflicting., Methods: In this nested case-control study of biobank samples in a Swedish cohort, we analysed the serological response towards RV before the clinical onset of MS with a bead-based multiplex assay in subjects vaccinated and unvaccinated towards RV. The association between RV seropositivity and MS risk was analysed with conditional logistic regression., Results: Seropositivity towards RV was associated with an increased risk of MS for unvaccinated subjects, even when adjusting for plausible confounders including EBV, HHV-6A, cytomegalovirus and vitamin D (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-8.8). Cases also had stronger antibody reactivity towards rubella than controls, which was not seen for other neurotropic viruses such as herpes simplex or varicella zoster. Furthermore, we observed an association between RV seropositivity and MS in vaccinated subjects. However, this association was not significant when adjusting for the aforementioned confounders (AOR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-2.9)., Conclusions: To our knowledge, these are the first reported associations between early RV seropositivity and later MS development. This suggests a broadening of the virus hypothesis in MS aetiology, where molecular mimicry between rubella epitopes and human central nervous system molecules could be an attractive possible mechanism., (© 2024 The Author(s). European Journal of Neurology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Academy of Neurology.)

Background: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) may cause substantial individual suffering and a large economic burden for society. This study examined the seroprevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis , Mycoplasma genitalium , herpes simplex virus (HSV) types 1 and 2, and several human papillomaviruses (HPV) in the Swedish population over time., Methods: The study population consisted of 30-year-old women attending maternity care, and 50 year-old men and women attending health check-ups, from 1975 to 2018. Antibody status was determined by multiplex serology and quantified using median reporter fluorescence intensity (MFI)., Results: A total of 891 samples were analysed (519 from 30-year-old women, 186 from 50 year-old women and 186 from 50 year-old men). Of these, 41.5% showed seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis , 16.7% for Mycoplasma genitalium , 70.5% for HSV-1, 14.9% for HSV-2, 13.2% for high-risk HPV, and 8.3% for low-risk HPV. Seropositivity for Mycoplasma genitalium , HSV-1 and especially Chlamydia trachomatis decreased over time., Conclusions: There was a decrease over time in Chlamydia trachomatis seroprevalence, probably due to contact tracing, testing and early treatment; this might also have affected Mycoplasma genitalium seroprevalence. Despite the reduction, seroprevalences are still high, so continued and new efforts to reduce STI incidence are essential., Competing Interests: Declaration of conflicting interestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Importance: For individuals without a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC), colonoscopy screening every 10 years is recommended to reduce CRC incidence and mortality. However, debate exists about whether and for how long this 10-year interval could be safely expanded., Objective: To assess how many years after a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC a second colonoscopy can be performed., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study leveraged Swedish nationwide register-based data to examine CRC diagnoses and CRC-specific mortality among individuals without a family history of CRC. The exposed group included individuals who had a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC at age 45 to 69 years between 1990 and 2016. The control group included individuals matched by sex, birth year, and baseline age (ie, the age of their matched exposed individual when the exposed individual's first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC was performed). Individuals in the control group either did not have a colonoscopy during the follow-up or underwent colonoscopy that resulted in a CRC diagnosis. Up to 18 controls were matched with each exposed individual. Individuals were followed up from 1990 to 2018, and data were analyzed from November 2022 to November 2023., Exposure: A first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, defined as a first colonoscopy without a diagnosis of colorectal polyp, adenoma, carcinoma in situ, or CRC before or within 6 months after screening., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were CRC diagnosis and CRC-specific death. The 10-year standardized incidence ratio and standardized mortality ratio were calculated to compare risks of CRC and CRC-specific death in the exposed and control groups based on different follow-up screening intervals., Results: The sample included 110 074 individuals (65 147 females [59.2%]) in the exposed group and 1 981 332 (1 172 646 females [59.2%]) in the control group. The median (IQR) age for individuals in both groups was 59 (52-64) years. During up to 29 years of follow-up of individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, 484 incident CRCs and 112 CRC-specific deaths occurred. After a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, the risks of CRC and CRC-specific death in the exposed group were significantly lower than those in their matched controls for 15 years. At 15 years after a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC, the 10-year standardized incidence ratio was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.54-0.94) and the 10-year standardized mortality ratio was 0.55 (95% CI, 0.29-0.94). In other words, the 10-year cumulative risk of CRC in year 15 in the exposed group was 72% that of the 10-year cumulative risk of CRC in the control group. Extending the colonoscopy screening interval from 10 to 15 years in individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC could miss the early detection of only 2 CRC cases and the prevention of 1 CRC-specific death per 1000 individuals, while potentially avoiding 1000 colonoscopies., Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that for the population without a family history of CRC, the 10-year interval between colonoscopy screenings for individuals with a first colonoscopy with findings negative for CRC could potentially be extended to 15 years. A longer interval between colonoscopy screenings could be beneficial in avoiding unnecessary invasive examinations.

Backround: We wanted to characterize conditional survival in prostate cancer (PC) in Sweden around and after 2005 when the vast increase in incidence due to the opportunistic testing for prostate specific antigen (PSA) culminated. We hypothesize that analyzing survival data during that time period may help interpret survival trends. We focus on stage-specific analysis using conditional survival in order to define the periods when deaths most commonly occurred., Methods: Data on PC patients were obtained from the Swedish cancer registry for analysis of 1-, 2.5- and 5-year relative survival and conditional relative survival between years 2004 and 2018. Tumor-node-metastatic stage classification at diagnosis was used to specify survival., Results: Small improvements were observed in stage- and age-related relative survival duriring the study period. Applying conditional relative survival showed that survival in stage T3 up to 2.5 years was better than survival between years 2.5 and 5. Survival in stage T4 was approximately equal in the first and the subsequent 2.5-year period. For M1, the first 2.5 year survival period was worse than the subsequent one. The proportion of high risk and M1 disease in old patients (80+ years) remained very high and their survival improved only modestly., Conclusions: The data indicate that M1 metastases kill more patients in the first 2.5 years than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis; T4 deaths are equal in the two periods, and in T3 mortality in the first 2.5-year period is lower than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis. Conditional survival could be applied to explore critical survival periods even past 5 years after diagnoses and to monitor success in novel diagnostic and treatment practices. Improvement of survival in elderly patients may require clinical input., (© 2024 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objectives: We describe age-specific survival in thyroid cancer (TC) from Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over a 50-year period., Design: Population-based survival study., Methods: Relative 5-year survival data were obtained from the NORDCAN database for the years 1972-2021., Results: In the first period 1972-1976, 5-year survival in TC in Finland, Norway, and Sweden was 90% or higher, but a strong negative step-wise age gradient was observed, which was worse for men than women. Over time, survival increased, and in the final period, 2017-2021, survival for all women and Danish men up to age 69 years was about 90% or higher and, for men from the other countries, only marginally lower. Even for older women survival reached 80%, for older men somewhat less., Conclusions: Age disadvantage in TC survival was for the most part corrected over the 50-year period, and the remaining task is to boost survival for the oldest patients., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: A.H. is a shareholder in Circio holdings ASA. A.H. is an employee and shareholder in TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. Other authors declared no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Society of Endocrinology.)

Background: Survival in breast cancer (BC) has developed favorably but late recurrences are still a problem., Methods: We model survival data from the NORDCAN database and analyze 1-, 5-, and 10-year relative survival and 5/1- and 10/5-year conditional survival in BC from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) between 1971 and 2020. Conditional survival measures survival in those who had survived year 1 to reach year 5 (5/1), or in those who had survived year 5 to reach year 10 (10/5)., Results: Almost all survival metrics were best for SE but survival in all countries improved in the course of time approaching the SE levels which were 98.3% for 1-year, 92.3% for 5-year, and 87.8% for 10-year survival. Conditional 10/5-year survival, covering 5 years, was better than 5/1-year survival, covering 4 years. A contributing factor is most likely the high rate of recurrence in period 2-5 years. The difference was observed for all countries but for DK 10/5-year survival approached 1-year survival and for NO and SE 10/5-year survival was only barely better than 5/1-year survival. The explanation to this was the excellent 10/5-year survival in DK compared to SE and particularly to NO. Literature search suggested that the reason for the relatively low 10/5-year survival in NO might be stagnant survival development in old patients., Conclusions: We assume that late mortality is critically limiting survival in BC and either interference with the late metastatic process or effective treatment will be key to future improvements in BC survival., (© 2023 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Survival studies are an important indicator of the success of cancer control. We analyzed the 5-year relative survival in 23 solid cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden over a 50-year period (1970-2019) at the NORDCAN database accessed from the International Agency for Research on Cancer website. We plotted survival curves in 5-year periods and showed 5-year periodic survival. The survival results were summarized in four groups: (1) cancers with historically good survival (>50% in 1970-1974) which include melanoma and breast, endometrial and thyroid cancers; (2) cancers which constantly improved survival at least 20% units over the 50 year period, including cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, kidney, brain and ovary; (3) cancer with increase in survival >20% units with changes taking place in a narrow time window, including oral, oropharyngeal, testicular and prostate cancers; (4) the remaining cancers with <20% unit improvement in survival including lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, bladder, soft tissue, penile, cervical and vulvar cancers. For cancers in groups 1 and 2, the constant development implied multiple improvements in therapy, diagnosis and patient care. Cancers in group 3 included testicular cancers with known therapeutic improvements but for the others large incidence changes probably implied that cancer stage (prostate) or etiology (oropharynx) changed into a more tractable form. Group 4 cancers included those with dismal survival 50 years ago but a clear tendency upwards. In 17 cancers 5-year survival reached between 50% and 100% while in only six cancers it remained at below 50%., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Over the last decades, rapid technological and scientific advances have led to a merge of molecular sciences and clinical medicine, resulting in a better understanding of disease mechanisms and the development of novel therapies that exploit specific molecular lesions or profiles driving disease. Precision oncology is here used as an example, illustrating the potential of precision/personalized medicine that also holds great promise in other medical fields. Real-world implementation can only be achieved by dedicated healthcare connected centers which amass and build up interdisciplinary expertise reflecting the complexity of precision medicine. Networks of such centers are ideally suited for a nation-wide outreach offering access to precision medicine to patients independent of their place of residence. Two of these multicentric initiatives, Genomic Medicine Sweden (GMS) and the Centers for Personalized Medicine (ZPM) initiative in Germany have teamed up to present and share their views on core concepts, potentials, challenges, and future developments in precision medicine. Together with other initiatives worldwide, GMS and ZPM aim at providing a robust and sustainable framework, covering all components from technology development to clinical trials, ethical and legal aspects as well as involvement of all relevant stakeholders, including patients and policymakers in the field., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We analyzed long-term incidence trends in liver cancer (including hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma) with an aim to interpret the changes in terms of known risk factors and hypothesize that historical exposure to Thorotrast, a radiographic contrast medium emitting alpha particles, has changed population rates. The NORDCAN database was used to collect cancer registry data from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE), which we used from 1953 (DK, FI and NO) and 1960 (SE) through 2019. Thorotrast, which caused a 100-fold risk of liver cancer was used in DK and SE, and probably also in FI between 1930 and 1950, but not in NO. The incidence trend for liver cancer showed a broad maximum at around 1980, most prominent and statistically significant in SE and DK men and women, and in all countries, a steadily increasing trend towards the end of follow-up. Incidence for NO was lower than for the other countries and the rates showed no peaking at around 1980. Birth cohort analysis identified a transient risk which could be dated to a period between 1930 and 1950 in countries other than NO. Considering a lag time between Thorotrast use and liver cancer appearance, the large incidence peak around 1980 in DK and DE was probably contributed by Thorotrast but considering the ecological nature of the findings, the association should be considered cautiously as hypothesis generating. The late increase in liver cancer risk is most likely lifestyle related and largely preventable., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Cancers of the gallbladder and extrahepatic bile ducts (called here "GBC" because gallbladder cancer is the main component) are rare in Europe, including the Nordic countries. Their incidence has varied for unknown reasons and we hypothesize that Thorotrast, a previously used carcinogenic radiographic contrast medium, has contributed to the incidence trends. We obtained incidence and survival data from the NORDCAN database, which includes cancer registry data from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE), which are globally the oldest national cancer databases, starting from 1943 in DK, 1953 in FI and NO and 1960 in SE, and extending to 2016. The incidence trend for GBC showed a broad maximum around 1980 in men (close to 3/100 000) and women (4/100 000), except for NO, where this phenomenon was not seen. In 1955, FI and NO incidence rates were equal but FI rates peaked and later declined similar to DK and SE rates. By 2010, the incidence was similar in all Nordic countries, for both men and women, at close to 2.0/100 000. Birth cohort analysis showed strong effects for countries other than NO. Relative 1-year survival increased for men from 20% to about 50% and similarly for women although at a 5 percentage points lower level. Survival in NO was better than in other countries in the 1980s. Thorotrast, causing a high risk of GBC, was extensively used in the Nordic countries between 1930 and end of 1940s, with the exception of NO, where these was no documented use. These data suggest that Thorotrast influenced GBC epidemiology and probably worsened survival in certain periods., (© 2022 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Global survival studies have shown favorable development in most cancers but few studies have considered laryngeal cancer, particularly over extended periods or in populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge. We analyzed laryngeal and lung cancer incidence and survival in Finland (FI) and Sweden (SE) over a 50-year period (1970-2019) using data and statistical tools from the Nordcan database. Laryngeal cancer reached an incidence maximum in FI men in 1965, which in SE men occurred over 10 years later and peaking at 42% of the FI maximum. The FI incidence halved in 20 years while halving of the SE rate took almost twice as long. At maximum the male rate exceeded the female rate 20 times in FI and 10 times in SE. Incidence rates for lung cancer were approximately 10 times higher than those for laryngeal cancer, and they peaked 5 to 10 years after laryngeal cancer in both countries. The female lung cancer rates increased through the follow-up time but laryngeal cancer rates were relatively stable. Relative 1-year survival data for laryngeal cancer remained at around 85% through 50 years, and 5-year survival lagged constantly around 65%. For lung cancer 1-year survival improved and reached about 50% by 2019. Even 5-year survival improved reaching 20 to 30%, except for FI men. Incidence rates for laryngeal and lung cancers have drastically decreased in FI and SE men parallel to reduced smoking prevalence. In females, rates have clearly increased in lung but not in FI laryngeal cancer. This finding warrants further investigations into possible contributing factors, other than smoking. Survival in laryngeal cancer has not improved compared to the positive development in lung cancer. Historical smoking prevalence was unrelated of survival trends. As long-term survival in these cancers remains discouraging, the most efficient way to fight them is to target the main cause and promote non-smoking., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Cigarette smoking epidemic, which started before the World War II, completely changed the cancer landscape. Reliable incidence data spanning the stepwise spreading epidemic are rare, but the Nordic cancer registries are unique sources in being able to catch the pre-epidemic situation in the female population where smoking became more prevalent after the War. For Swedish men, smoking prevalence has decease early and cancer rates may herald postsmoking rates. We used data from the NORDCAN database, constructed by the cancer registries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, for the analysis of incidence changes in lung and bladder cancers from year 1943 (Denmark), from 1953 (Finland and Norway) and from 1960 (Sweden) until year 2016. The analyses revealed four novel observation relevant to the smoking epidemic. (1) The incidence of lung cancer in Norwegian women in the 1950s, when the smoking prevalence was very low, was 1.8/100 000 (world standard rate), which is at the level of lowest global female rates known to-date; (2) the earliest lung-to-bladder incidence ratio among Norwegian women was 0.64, probably benchmarking the incidence rates prior to the smoking epidemic; (3) bladder cancer incidence for Finnish women diagnosed in the 1950s was 1.2/100 000 which is at the level of the lowest rates currently known and (4) Swedish men with the lowest smoking prevalence in Europe, showed an epochal crossing of lung and bladder cancer incidence rates before year 2015. The data suggest that the approaching of the incidence rates for lung and bladder cancer can be expected in the course of the abating smoking epidemic., (Copyright © 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Incidence of cervical cancer has been reduced by organized screening while for vaginal and vulvar cancers no systematic screening has been implemented. All these cancers are associated with human papilloma virus (HPV) infection. We wanted to analyze incidence trends and relative survival in these cancers with specific questions about the possible covariation of incidence, survival changes coinciding with incidence changes and the role of treatment in survival. We used nationwide cancer registry data for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) to address these questions., Methods: We use the NORDCAN database for the analyses: incidence data were available from 1943 in DK, 1953 in FI and NO and 1960 in SE, through 2016. Survival data were available from 1967 through 2016. World standard population was used in age standardization., Results: In each country the incidence of cervical cancer declined subsequent to rolling out of screening activities. The attained plateau incidence was lowest at 4/100,000 in FI and highest at 10/100,000 in DK and NO. The incidence of vaginal and vulvar cancer remained relatively constant at about 2/100,000. Relative 1-year survival in cervical cancer improved in all countries from low 80%s to high 80%s in the 50-year period, and 5-year survival improved also but at 20% units lower level. Survival gains were found only in patients diagnosed before age 60 years. Survival in vaginal and vulvar cancer followed the same patterns but at a few % units lower level., Conclusion: Cervical cancer screening appeared to have reached its limits in the Nordic countries by year 2000. Novel treatments, such as immunotherapy, would be needed to improve survival until HPV vaccination will reach population coverage and boost the global fight against these cancers., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx encompass a heterogeneous group of cancers for which known risk factors include smoking, alcohol consumption and human papilloma virus (HPV) infection but their influence is site-specific with HPV mainly influencing oropharyngeal cancer. Their incidence and survival rates are not well known over extended periods of time., Patients/methods: Data were obtained for Finnish (FI) and Swedish (SE) patients from the Nordcan database recently updated through 2019. Age-adjusted incidence trends (FI from 1953, SE from 1960) and relative survival rates for years 1970 through 2019 were calculated., Results: We observed a prominent increase in oral and oropharyngeal cancers in FI and SE men and women but the trend for oral cancer was interrupted for SE men in 1985 and possibly also for FI and SE women in 2015. The trend changes in male and female oral cancer was confirmed in data for Denmark and Norway. Relative survival for these cancers has improved overall but they differed for one cluster of oral, oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal cancers with 60-70% 5-year survival in the last period and hypopharyngeal cancer with 25% male survival. In all these cancers, survival for old patients was unfavorable., Discussion/conclusion: We hypothesize that reduction in smoking prevalence helped to stop the increase in oral cancer especially in men. As the prevalence of smoking is decreasing, HPV is becoming a dominant risk factor, particularly for the increasing oropharyngeal cancer. Prevention needs to emphasize sexual hygiene and HPV vaccination., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Survival has improved in bladder cancer but few studies have considered extended periods or covered populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge. We analyzed survival in urothelial cancer (UC, of which vast majority are bladder cancers) in Finland and Sweden over a 50-year period (1967-2016) using data from the NORDCAN database. Finland and Sweden are neighboring countries with largely similar health care systems but higher economic resources and health care expenditure in Sweden. We present results on 1- and 5-year relative survival rates, and additionally provide a novel measure, the difference between 1- and 5-year relative survival, indicating how well survival was maintained between these two periods. Over the 50-year period the median diagnostic age has increased by several years and the incidence in the very old patients has increased vastly. Relative 1- year survival rates increased until early 1990s in both countries, and with minor gains later reaching about 90% in men and 85% in women. Although 5-year survival also developed favorably until early 1990s, subsequent gains were small. Over time, age specific differences in male 1-year survival narrowed but remained wide in 5-year survival. For women, age differences were larger than for men. The limitations of the study were lack of information on treatment and stage. In conclusion, challenges are to improve 5-year survival, to reduce the gender gap and to target specific care to the most common patient group, those of 70 years at diagnosis. The most effective methods to achieve survival gains are to target control of tobacco use, emphasis on early diagnosis with prompt action at hematuria, upfront curative treatment and awareness of high relapse requiring regular cystoscopy follow up., Competing Interests: A.H. is shareholder in Targovax ASA. A.H. is employee and shareholder in TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. Other authors declared no conflict of interest.

Background: Previous population-based studies on second primary cancers (SPCs) in urothelial cancers have focused on known risk factors in bladder cancer patients without data on other urothelial sites of the renal pelvis or ureter., Aims: To estimate sex-specific risks for any SPCs after urothelial cancers, and in reverse order, for urothelial cancers as SPCs after any cancer. Such two-way analysis may help interpret the results., Methods: We employed standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) to estimate bidirectional relative risks of subsequent cancer associated with urothelial cancers. Patient data were obtained from the Swedish Cancer Registry from years 1990 through 2015., Results: We identified 46 234 urinary bladder cancers (75% male), 940 ureteral cancers (60% male), and 2410 renal pelvic cancers (57% male). After male bladder cancer, SIRs significantly increased for 9 SPCs, most for ureteral (SIR 41.9) and renal pelvic (17.2) cancers. In the reversed order (bladder cancer as SPC), 10 individual FPCs were associated with an increased risk; highest associations were noted after renal pelvic (21.0) and ureteral (20.9) cancers. After female bladder cancer, SIRs of four SPCs were significantly increased, most for ureteral (87.8) and pelvic (35.7) cancers. Female bladder, ureteral, and pelvic cancers associated are with endometrial cancer., Conclusions: The risks of recurrent urothelial cancers were very high, and, at most sites, female risks were twice over the male risks. Risks persisted often to follow-up periods of >5 years, motivating an extended patient follow-up. Lynch syndrome-related cancers were associated with particularly female urothelial cancers, calling for clinical vigilance., (© 2021 The Authors. Cancer Reports published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare but fatal cancer, which is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Reliable information about the incidence of MPM prior the influence of asbestos is lacking. The nationwide regional incidence trends for MPM remain poorly characterized. We use nationwide MPM data for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) to assess incidence, mortality and survival trends for MPM in these countries., Methods: We use the NORDCAN database for the analyses: incidence data were available from 1943 in DK, 1953 in FI and NO and 1958 in SE, through 2016. Survival data were available from 1967 through 2016. World standard population was used in age standardization., Results: The lowest incidence that we recorded for MPM was 0.02/100,000 for NO women and 0.05/100,000 for FI men in 1953-57, marking the incidence before the influence of asbestos. The highest rate of 1.9/100,000 was recorded for DK in 1997. Female incidence was much lower than male incidence. In each country, the male incidence trend for MPM culminated, first in SE around 1990. The regional incidence trends matched with earlier asbestos-related industrial activity, shipbuilding in FI and SE, cement manufacturing and shipbuilding in DK and seafaring in NO. Relative 1-year survival increased from about 20 to 50% but 5-year survival remained at or below 10%., Conclusion: In the Nordic countries, the male incidence trends for MPM climaxed and started to decrease, indicating that the prevention of exposure was beneficial. Survival in MPM has improved for both sexes but long-term survival remains dismal., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Favorable survival in malignant cutaneous melanoma (melanoma) has increased the likelihood of second primary cancer (SPC). We assess the influence of patient characteristics at diagnosis of first melanoma and the type of SPC (second melanoma and other SPC) on overall survival., Methods: We used the Swedish Cancer Registry data to assess overall survival in melanoma for the period 1990 to 2015. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with Cox regression models by considering SPC diagnosis as a time-dependent variable., Results: A total of 46,726 patients were diagnosed with melanoma, and 15.3% of them developed SPC, among which, two thirds were other SPCs. Second melanomas were diagnosed early (31% during the first year) compared to non-melanoma SPCs (9.5%). Survival for women with second melanoma or other SPC (56 and 21% alive after 25 years of follow-up, respectively) exceeded the male rates (21 and 10%, respectively) but all these figures were lower than for females (60% alive) or males (48%) without SPC. Time dependent analysis showed vastly increased HRs for cancer types that are fatal also as first cancers, but SPC-specific HRs remained relatively uniform, irrespective of SPC diagnosed soon or late after first melanoma. In early-onset melanoma, SPC diagnosis after 10 years may not negatively influence overall survival., Conclusions: As the overall survival of patients with many types of SPCs is unfavorable, advice about health lifestyle should benefit smoking patients and early detection methods may be recommended for SPCs of the breast, prostate and colorectum., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: The aim of this study was to explore the risk of invasive colorectal cancer (CRC) in relatives of patients with colorectal carcinoma in situ (CCIS), which is lacking in the literature., Patients and Methods: We collected data from Swedish family-cancer datasets and calculated standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and cumulative risk of CRC in family histories of CCIS in first- and second-degree relatives. Family history was defined as a dynamic (time-dependent) variable allowing for changes during the follow-up period from 1958 to 2015. Of 12,829,251 individuals with available genealogical data, 173,796 were diagnosed with CRC and 40,558 with CCIS., Results: The lifetime (0-79 years) cumulative risk of CRC in first-degree relatives of patients with CCIS was 6.5%, which represents a 1.6-fold (95% CI, 1.5-1.7; n=752) increased risk. A similarly increased lifetime cumulative risk (6.7%) was found among first-degree relatives of patients with CRC (SIR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.6-1.7; n=6,965). An increased risk of CRC was also found in half-siblings of patients with CCIS (SIR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0; n=18) and also in half-siblings of patients with CRC (SIR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.1; n=78). Moreover, the increased risk of CRC was higher for younger age at diagnosis of CCIS in the affected first-degree relative and for younger age at diagnosis of CRC in the index person., Conclusions: Results of this study show that first-degree relatives and half-siblings of patients with CCIS have an increased risk of CRC, which is comparable in magnitude to the risk of those with a family history of invasive CRC. These findings extend available evidence on familial risk of CRC and may help to refine guidelines and recommendations for CRC screening.

Survival in multiple myeloma (MM) has developed favorably over the past decades for reasons that have been ascribed to new medications and treatment. However, development of survival over a long period and comparison to other hematopoietic neoplasms (HN) is less well known. Here we used Swedish cancer data from the Nordcan database, spanning a 50-year period from 1967 to 2016, and analyzed 1- and 5-year survival data. As a novel type of analysis we calculate the difference in survival between year 1 and 5 which indicates how well survival was maintained in the 4-year period following year 1 after diagnosis. The relative 1- and 5- year survival increased constantly; the 5-year survival graph for women was almost linear. The difference between 1- and 5-year survival revealed that the 5-year survival gain was entirely due to the improvement in 1-year survival, except for the last period. Survival improvement in all HNs exceeded that in MM. The linear 5-year survival increase for female MM patients suggests a contribution by many small improvements in the first year care rather than single major events. The future challenges are to push the gains past year 1 and to extend them to old patients., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Global survival studies have shown favourable development in colon and rectal cancers but few studies have considered extended periods or covered populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge., Design: We analysed colon and rectal cancer survival in Finland and Sweden over a 50-year period (1967-2016) using data from the Nordcan database. In addition to the standard 1-year and 5-year survival rates, we calculated the difference between these as a novel measure of how well survival was maintained between years 1 and 5., Results: Relative 1-year and 5-year survival rates have developed favourably without major shifts for men and women in both countries. For Finnish men, 1-year survival in colon cancer increased from 50% to 82%, and for rectal cancer from 62% to 85%. The Swedish survival was a few per cent unit better for 1-year survival but for 5-year survival the results were equal. Survival of female patients for both cancers was somewhat better than survival in men through 50 years. Overall the survival gains were higher in the early compared with the late follow-up periods, and were the smallest in the last 10 years. The difference between 1-year and 5-year survival in colon cancer was essentially unchanged over the 50-year period while in rectal cancer there was a large improvement., Conclusions: The gradual positive development in survival suggests a contribution by many small improvements rather than single breakthroughs. The improvement in 5-year survival in colon cancer was almost entirely driven by improvement in 1-year survival while in rectal cancer the positive development extended to survival past year 1, probably due to successful curative treatments. The current challenges are to reinvigorate the apparently stalled positive development and to extend them to old patients. For colon cancer, survival gains need to be extended past year 1 of diagnosis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AH is shareholder in Targovax ASA. AH is employee and shareholder in TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Global survival studies have shown favorable development in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) treatment but few studies have considered extended periods or covered populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge. We analyzed RCC survival in Finland and Sweden over a 50-year period (1967-2016) using data from the NORDCAN database provided by the local cancer registries. While the health care systems are largely similar in the two countries, the economic resources have been stronger in Sweden. In addition to the standard 1- and 5-year relative survival rates, we calculated the difference between these as a measure of how well survival was maintained between years 1 and 5. Relative 1- year survival rates increased almost linearly in both countries and reached 90% in Sweden and 80% in Finland. Although 5-year survival also developed favorably the difference between 1- and 5-year survival rates did not improve in Sweden suggesting that the gains in 5-year survival were entirely due to gains in 1-year survival. In Finland there was a gain in survival between years 1 and 5, but the gain in 1-years survival was the main contributor to the favorable 5-year survival. Age group specific analysis showed large survival differences, particularly among women. Towards the end of the follow-up period the differences narrowed but the disadvantage of the old patients remained in 5-year survival. The limitations of the study were lack of information on performed treatment and clinical stage in the NORDCAN database. In conclusion, the available data suggest that earlier diagnosis and surgical treatment of RCC have been the main driver of the favorable change in survival during the past 50 years. The main challenges are to reduce the age-specific survival gaps, particularly among women, and push survival gains past year 1., Competing Interests: The authors have read the journal’s policy and have the following competing interests: AH is shareholder in Targovax ASA. AH is also employee and shareholder in TILT Biotherapeutics Ltd. Other authors declared no conflict of interest. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products associated with this research to declare.

Background: Evidence-based guidance for starting ages of screening for first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with prostate cancer (PCa) to prevent stage III/IV or fatal PCa is lacking in current PCa screening guidelines. We aimed to provide evidence for risk-adapted starting age of screening for relatives of patients with PCa., Methods and Findings: In this register-based nationwide cohort study, all men (aged 0 to 96 years at baseline) residing in Sweden who were born after 1931 along with their fathers were included. During the follow-up (1958 to 2015) of 6,343,727 men, 88,999 were diagnosed with stage III/IV PCa or died of PCa. The outcomes were defined as the diagnosis of stage III/IV PCa or death due to PCa, stratified by age at diagnosis. Using 10-year cumulative risk curves, we calculated risk-adapted starting ages of screening for men with different constellations of family history of PCa. The 10-year cumulative risk of stage III/IV or fatal PCa in men at age 50 in the general population (a common recommended starting age of screening) was 0.2%. Men with ≥2 FDRs diagnosed with PCa reached this screening level at age 41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 39 to 44), i.e., 9 years earlier, when the youngest one was diagnosed before age 60; at age 43 (41 to 47), i.e., 7 years earlier, when ≥2 FDRs were diagnosed after age 59, which was similar to that of men with 1 FDR diagnosed before age 60 (41 to 45); and at age 45 (44 to 46), when 1 FDR was diagnosed at age 60 to 69 and 47 (46 to 47), when 1 FDR was diagnosed after age 69. We also calculated risk-adapted starting ages for other benchmark screening ages, such as 45, 55, and 60 years, and compared our findings with those in the guidelines. Study limitations include the lack of genetic data, information on lifestyle, and external validation., Conclusions: Our study provides practical information for risk-tailored starting ages of PCa screening based on nationwide cancer data with valid genealogical information. Our clinically relevant findings could be used for evidence-based personalized PCa screening guidance and supplement current PCa screening guidelines for relatives of patients with PCa., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The dominant risk factor for urinary bladder cancer has been cigarette smoking, but, as smoking prevalence is decreasing in many populations, other risk factors may become uncovered. Such new risk factors could be responsible for halting the declining incidence of bladder cancer. We hypothesize that snuff use by Swedish men may increase the rate for bladder cancer, as snuff contains carcinogenic nitrosamines., Methods: We carried out an ecological study by comparing incidence trends in lung and bladder cancers between Danish, Finnish and Swedish men in order to test if the Swedish bladder cancer rate deviates from the Danish and Finnish ones. We used the NORDCAN database for cancer data from 1960 through 2016 to test the hypothesis., Results: In the three countries, the incidence of lung cancer started to decrease after a peak incidence, and this was later followed by declining incidence in bladder cancer in Denmark from 1990 to 2016 by 14.3%, in Finland by 8.3% but not in Sweden (the decline of 1.4% was not significant). The difference in trends can be partly explained by the increasing incidence in Swedish men aged 70 or more years. Sweden differs from the two other countries by low male smoking prevalence but increasing use of snuff recorded by various surveys., Conclusion: The stable bladder cancer trend for Swedish men was opposite to the declining trends in Denmark, Finland and globally. We suggest that this unusual finding may be related to the increasing use of snuff by Swedish men. Average users of snuff are exposed to at least 3 times higher levels of carcinogenic tobacco-specific nitrosamines than a smoker of one daily pack of cigarettes.

Objective: Because obesity affects the cellular immune response to infections, we aimed to investigate whether high body mass index (BMI) in young adulthood and high Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) antibody levels interact with regard to MS risk. We also aimed at exploring potential 3-way interactions between BMI at age 20 years, aspects of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection (high EBNA-1 antibody levels and infectious mononucleosis [IM] history, respectively) and the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1*15:01 allele., Methods: Using Swedish population-based case-control studies (5,460 cases and 7,275 controls), we assessed MS risk in relation to interactions between overweight/obesity at age 20 years, IM history, EBNA-1 levels, and HLA-DRB1*15:01 status by calculating ORs with 95% CIs using logistic regression. Potential interactions were evaluated on the additive scale., Results: Overweight/obesity, compared with normal weight, interacted significantly with high (>50th percentile) EBNA-1 antibody levels (attributable proportion due to interaction 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.4). The strength of the interaction increased with higher category of EBNA-1 antibody levels. Furthermore, 3-way interactions were present between HLA-DRB1*15:01, overweight/obesity at age 20 years, and each aspect of EBV infection., Conclusions: With regard to MS risk, overweight/obesity in young adulthood acts synergistically with both aspects of EBV infection, predominantly among those with a genetic susceptibility to the disease. The obese state both induces a chronic immune-mediated inflammation and affects the cellular immune response to infections, which may contribute to explain our findings., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.)

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence is increasing among young adults below screening age, despite the effectiveness of screening in older populations. Individuals with diabetes mellitus are at increased risk of early-onset CRC. We aimed to determine how many years earlier than the general population patients with diabetes with/without family history of CRC reach the threshold risk at which CRC screening is recommended to the general population., Methods and Findings: A nationwide cohort study (follow-up:1964-2015) involving all Swedish residents born after 1931 and their parents was carried out using record linkage of Swedish Population Register, Cancer Registry, National Patient Register, and Multi-Generation Register. Of 12,614,256 individuals who were followed between 1964 and 2015 (51% men; age range at baseline 0-107 years), 162,226 developed CRC, and 559,375 developed diabetes. Age-specific 10-year cumulative risk curves were used to draw conclusions about how many years earlier patients with diabetes reach the 10-year cumulative risks of CRC in 50-year-old men and women (most common age of first screening), which were 0.44% and 0.41%, respectively. Diabetic patients attained the screening level of CRC risk earlier than the general Swedish population. Men with diabetes reached 0.44% risk at age 45 (5 years earlier than the recommended age of screening). In women with diabetes, the risk advancement was 4 years. Risk was more pronounced for those with additional family history of CRC (12-21 years earlier depending on sex and benchmark starting age of screening). The study limitations include lack of detailed information on diabetes type, lifestyle factors, and colonoscopy data., Conclusions: Using high-quality registers, this study is, to our knowledge, the first one that provides novel evidence-based information for risk-adapted starting ages of CRC screening for patients with diabetes, who are at higher risk of early-onset CRC than the general population., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Purpose: To investigate the suitability of the microDiamond detector (mDD) type 60019 (PTW-Freiburg, Germany) to measure the anisotropy function F(r,θ) of High Dose Rate (HDR) 192 Ir brachytherapy sources., Methods: The HDR 192 Ir brachytherapy source, model mHDR-v2r (Elekta AB, Sweden), was placed inside a water tank within a 4F plastic needle. Four mDDs (mDD1, mDD2, mDD3, and mDD4) were investigated. Each mDD was placed laterally with respect to the source, and measurements were performed at radial distances r = 1 cm, 3 and 5 cm, and polar angles θ from 0° to 168°. The Monte Carlo (MC) system EGSnrc was used to simulate the measurements and to calculate phantom effect, energy dependence and volume-averaging correction factors. F(r,θ) was determined according to TG-43 formalism from the detector reading corrected with the MC-based factors and compared to the consensus anisotropy function CON F(r,θ)., Results: At 1 cm, the differences between measurements and MC simulations ranged from -0.8% to +0.8% for θ = 0° and from -2.1% to + 2.3% for θ ≠ 0°. At 3 and 5 cm, the differences ranged from +1.4% to +3.9% for θ = 0°, and from -0.4% to +2.9% for θ ≠ 0°. All differences were within the uncertainties (k = 2). At small angles, the phantom effect correction was up to -1.9%. This effect was mainly caused by the air between source and needle tip. The energy correction was angle-independent everywhere. For small angles at 1 cm, the volume-averaging correction was up to -2.9% and became less important for larger angles and distances. The differences of the measured F(r,θ) corrected with the MC-based factors to CON F(r,θ) ranged from -1.0% to +3.4% for mDD1, -2.2% to +4.2% for mDD2, -2.5% to +4.0% for mDD3, and -2.6% to +3.4% for mDD4. All differences were within the uncertainties (k = 2) except one at (3 cm, 0°). For all the mDDs, F(r,0°) was always higher than CON F(r,0°), with average differences of +3.1% (1 cm), +3.6% (3 cm), and +1.9% (5 cm). The inter-detector variability was within 2.9% (1 cm), 1.8% (3 cm), and 3.4% (5 cm)., Conclusions: A reproducible method and experimental setup were presented for measuring and validating F(r,θ) of an HDR 192 Ir brachytherapy source in a water phantom using the mDD. The phantom effect and the volume-averaging need to be taken into account, especially for the smaller distances and angles. Good agreement to CON F(r,θ) was obtained. The discrepancies at (1 cm, 0°), accurately predicted by the MC results, may suggest a reconsideration of CON F(r,θ), at least for this position. The slight overestimations at (3 cm,0°) and (5 cm,0°), both in comparison to CON F(r,θ) and MC results, may be due to an underestimation of the air volume between source and needle tip, dark current, intrinsic over-response of the mDDs, or radiation-induced charge imbalance in the detector's components. The results indicate that the mDD is a valuable tool for measurements with HDR 192 Ir brachytherapy sources and support its employment for the determination and validation of TG-43 parameters of such sources., (© 2020 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.)

Background: Many cancers are increased in immunosuppressed patients and evidence is accumulating that immune dysfunction may be a contributing risk factor for second primary cancers (SPCs). The aim of this study was to explore the potential influence of immune mechanisms in SPC., Methods: We used the Swedish Cancer Registry (1990-2015) to select 13 male and 14 female first primary cancers (FPCs) that are known to be related to immune suppression. We assessed relative risks (RRs) for any of these as concordant (same first and second cancer) and discordant FPC-SPC pairs. Hierarchical clustering of significant RRs was performed for cancers as FPC and SPC., Results: Concordant risks for SPCs were excessive in men and women for nasal (RRs 59.3 for men and 150.6 for women), tongue/mouth (51.7 and 100.8), and lip (32.4 and 61.2) cancers. Heatmaps showed that some cancers, such as skin cancer, tongue/mouth cancers, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma had multiple bidirectional associations as FPC and SPC. Nasal cancer and chronic lymphocytic leukemia had associations mainly as FPC while liver and kidney cancers showed most associations as SPC., Conclusions: Immune dysfunction may be a plausible contributing factor for most of the associations, which calls for experimental verification., (© 2020 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Autoimmune diseases are characterized by the irregular functioning of the immune system that leads to the loss of tolerance to self-antigens. The underlying nature of autoimmune diseases has led to speculation that the risk of malignancy might be higher or lower in patients with such diseases. However, the rarity and heterogeneity of both autoimmune diseases and malignancies is the main challenge for systematic exploration of associations between autoimmune diseases and cancer. The nationwide usages of electronic health records in Sweden and other countries has created longitudinal clinical datasets of large populations, which are ideal for quantifying the associations as well as possible guidance concerning the underlying mechanisms. In this report, we firstly summarize the population-based epidemiological association studies between autoimmune diseases and subsequent hematological malignancies using data derived mainly from Swedish nationwide data. These include over one million cancer cases and approximately 500,000 patients with medically diagnosed autoimmune disease. We further discuss the underlying mechanisms that contribute to the observed association between autoimmune diseases and hematological malignancies, including shared genetics, environmental factors, medical treatments of autoimmune diseases as well as dysregulated immune function., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We review here data on familial risk in colorectal cancer (CRC) generated from the Swedish Family-Cancer Database, the largest resource of its kind in the world. Although the concordant familial risk for CRC (i.e. CRC risk in families of CRC patients) has been reasonably well established, the studies on discordant familial risks (i.e. CRC risk in families with any other cancers) are rare. Because different cancers could be caused by shared genetic susceptibility or shared environment, data of associations of discordant cancers may provide useful information for identifying common risk factors. In analyses between any of 33 discordant cancers relative risks (RRs) for discordant cancers were estimated in families with increasing numbers of probands with CRC; in the reverse analyses, RRs for CRC were estimated in families with increasing numbers of probands with discordant cancers. In separate analyses, hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) families were excluded from the study, based on HNPCC related double primary cancers, to assess the residual familial RRs. We further reviewed familial risks of colon and rectal cancers separately in search for distinct discordant associations. The reviewed data suggested that colon cancer was associated with a higher familial risk for CRC compared to rectal cancer. The previous data had reported associations of CRC with melanoma, thyroid and eye cancers. Nervous system cancer was only associated with colon cancer, and lung cancer only associated with rectal cancer. The reviewed data on discordant association may provide guidance to gene identification and may help genetic counseling., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the UK Environmental Mutagen Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

It is unclear whether smoking interacts with different aspects of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection with regard to multiple sclerosis (MS) risk. We aimed to investigate whether smoking acts synergistically with elevated EBNA-1 antibody levels or infectious mononucleosis (IM) history regarding MS risk. Two Swedish population-based case-control studies were used (6,340 cases and 6,219 matched controls). Subjects with different smoking, EBNA-1 and IM status were compared regarding MS risk, by calculating odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) employing logistic regression. Potential interaction on the additive scale was evaluated by calculating the attributable proportion due to interaction (AP). Current and past smokers had higher EBNA-1 antibody levels than never smokers (p < 0.0001). There was an additive interaction between current smoking and high EBNA-1 antibody levels (AP 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.4), but not between past smoking and high EBNA-1 antibody levels (AP 0.01, 95% CI - 0.1 to 0.1), with regard to MS risk. An interaction also occurred between current smoking and IM history (AP 0.2, 95% CI 0.004-0.4), but not between past smoking and IM history (AP - 0.06, 95% CI - 0.4 to 0.3). Current smoking increases EBNA-1 antibody levels and acts synergistically with both aspects of EBV infection to increase MS risk, indicating that there is at least one pathway to disease in which both risk factors are involved.

Background & Aims: Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines acknowledge the need for earlier screening for high-risk individuals, such as those with family history of CRC, there is limited information on how many years earlier these high-risk individuals should be screened; current practice is based on weak evidence. We aimed to provide risk-adapted recommendations on the starting age of CRC screening for individuals with different family histories., Methods: We collected data from nationwide family-cancer data sets in Sweden and calculated risk-adapted starting ages of screening for individuals with different family histories of CRC. Family history was defined as a dynamic (time-dependent) variable, allowing for changes during the follow-up period of 1958 through 2015., Results: During a follow-up of 12,829,251 individuals with genealogy information, 173,796 developed CRC. The 10-year cumulative risk for the average-risk population at age 50 years (the guideline-recommended age for screening) was 0.44%. Individuals with different family histories of CRC attained this equivalent 0.44% risk 3-29 years earlier than their peers in the general population without such a family history. For example, individuals with 1 affected first-degree relative diagnosed before age 45 years reached the corresponding risk level 16 years earlier., Conclusions: We determined risk-adapted starting ages of CRC screening for close or distant relatives of patients with CRC, using high quality nationwide data sets. These findings might be used in counselling individuals about the appropriate age to start CRC screening, to optimize screening practice, and to supplement guidelines for CRC screening., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The increased survival in malignant cutaneous melanoma (melanoma) is probably due to early diagnosis combined with improved treatment most recently. National health campaigns and screening programs for melanoma detection were started in Sweden several decades ago. We want to assess the influence of tumor characteristics, based on the TNM classification, and of second primary cancers on overall survival in melanoma. We used the Swedish Cancer Registry to assess all-cause survival in melanoma from 2003 to 2015. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using multivariable Cox regression models. A total of 19,773 melanoma patients were diagnosed with TNM data. Survival showed a strong improving trend over time (p-trend <.001). T1a was the most common classification (48.0% of all), while higher T class was associated systematically with worse survival (p-trend <.001). For distant metastases, the HR was 3.17, accounting for 0.9% of the patients. Any types of second primary cancers, other than melanoma, were associated with an HR of 2.00, accounted for 6.7% of all cases. Even if melanoma survival in Sweden ranks among the best national rates, the large percentage of patients with advanced tumors (T3b, T4a, and T4b, 17%) and 21% of deaths with T1a call for improved preventive and follow-up strategies., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Introduction: Diabetes mellitus (DM) and colorectal cancer (CRC) share some risk factors, including lifestyle and metabolic disturbances. We aimed to provide in-depth information on the association of CRC risk, especially early-onset CRC, with DM, family history of CRC, and age at DM diagnosis., Methods: A nationwide cohort study was conducted using Swedish family cancer data sets, inpatient, and outpatient registers (follow-up: 1964-2015), including all individuals born after 1931 and their parents (12,614,256 individuals; 559,375 diabetic patients; 162,226 CRC patients)., Results: DM diagnosis before the age of 50 years was associated with a 1.9-fold increased risk of CRC before the age of 50 years (95% CI for standardized incidence ratio: 1.6-2.3) vs 1.3-fold risk of CRC at/after the age of 50 years (1.2-1.4). DM diagnosis before the age of 50 years in those with a family history of CRC was associated with 6.9-fold risk of CRC before the age of 50 years (4.1-12) and 1.9-fold risk of CRC at/after the age of 50 years (1.4-2.5). Diabetic patients had a similar lifetime risk of CRC before the age of 50 years (0.4%, 95% CI: 0.3%-0.4%) to those with only a family history of CRC (0.5%, 0.5%-0.5%), double that of the population (0.2%, 0.2%-0.2%)., Discussion: Our large cohort with valid information on DM and family history of cancer showed that DM is associated with increased risk of CRC in a magnitude close to having family history of CRC. Associations of DM and CRC family history with increased CRC risk were most prominent in young adults. These findings warrant further studies on harms, benefits, and cost-effectiveness of CRC screening in patients with diabetes, especially type 2, at earlier ages than in the general population.

Background: Familial breast cancer risk studies usually overlook the dynamic nature of family history., Methods: The authors assessed the effect of incorporating the timing of cancer diagnosis events into the assessment of familial risks of breast cancer in first-degree and second-degree relatives in a nationwide cohort study of 5,099,172 women (follow-up was between 1958-2015). Family history was assessed using 3 approaches: 1) as a static variable (ever having a relative with breast cancer); 2) as accumulative history; and 3) as a dynamic variable (time-dependent variable)., Results: For women aged <50 years, familial risk was mostly higher when family history was assessed as a dynamic variable compared with using a static or accumulative family history. For example, the cumulative risk of receiving a breast cancer diagnosis until age 50 years for women with a history of breast cancer in 1 first-degree relative was 2.6% (95% CI, 2.5%-2.7%) using the static method, 2.4% (95% CI, 2.3%-2.4%) using the accumulative method, and 3.1% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.2%) using the dynamic method. Relative risk in women aged <50 years with a breast cancer diagnosis in a sister was 1.40-fold (95% CI, 1.31-fold to 1.48-fold) using the static method, 1.66-fold (95% CI, 1.57-fold to 1.76-fold) using the accumulative method, and 2.28-fold (95% CI, 2.07-fold to 2.51-fold) using the dynamic method., Conclusions: The results of the current study demonstrated that assessing family history as static, accumulative, or dynamic results in different familial risk estimates. The answer as to which method to use for family history assessment depends on the implications of the study, with the dynamic method appearing to be better suited for risk stratification studies, the accumulative method being the most convenient in practice and the least favored for risk prediction, and the static method being suitable for etiological impact and risk attribution studies., (© 2020 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.)

Second primary cancers (SPCs) account for an increasing proportion of all cancer diagnoses and family history of cancer may be a risk factor for SPCs. Using the Swedish Family-Cancer Database on non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), we assessed the influence of family history on risk of SPCs and of SPCs on survival. NHL patients were identified from the years 1958 to 2015 and generalized Poisson models were used to calculate relative risks (RRs) for SPCs and familial SPCs. Among 14,393 NHL patients, a total of 1,866 (13.0%) were diagnosed with SPC. Familial risk of nine particular cancers was associated with risks of these cancers as SPCs, with twofold to fivefold increase in RRs. At the end of a 25-year follow-up period, the survival probability for persons with SPC was only 20% of that for patients without SPC; the hazard ratio for SPC was 1.59 (95% CI: 1.46-1.72). Survival could be predicted by the prognostic groups based on first cancers and HRs increase systematically with worse prognosis yielding a trend of p = 4.6 × 10 -5 . SPCs had deleterious consequences for survival in NHL patients. Family history was associated with increasing numbers of SPCs. Prevention of SPCs and their early detection is an important target in the overall strategy to improve survival in NHL patients. Counseling for avoidance of risk factors and targeted screening based on family history are feasible steps in risk reduction., (© 2019 UICC.)

Second primary cancers (SPCs) are becoming a common cancer entity, which may interfere with survival in relatively benign first primary cancers. We examined the hypothesis that immune dysfunction may contribute to SPCs by assessing SPCs associated with known immune responsive skin cancers, invasive and in situ squamous cell carcinoma, Kaposi sarcoma, and Merkel cell carcinoma. Cancers were identified from the Swedish Cancer Registry from the year 1958 to 2015. Standardized relative risks were calculated bidirectionally for any SPC after skin cancer and for skin cancer as SPC. Over 80,000 first primary cancers were identified for each invasive and in situ squamous cell carcinoma of the skin. Bidirectional increased risks were observed for 26 cancers associated with invasive skin cancer; the Spearman rank correlation was 0.72 (P = 4.6 × 10 -5 ). The highest bidirectional relative risks were for invasive and in situ skin cancer as SPCs (14.59 and 16.71, respectively). Remarkably high risks for second in situ squamous cell carcinoma of the skin were found after Kaposi sarcoma (685.68) and Merkel cell carcinoma (117.23). The high systematic bidirectional risks between immune responsive skin cancers and most other cancers suggest that immune suppression is a key mechanism contributing to an increased risk of SPCs., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Literature on familial risk of carcinomas in situ (CISs) is limited because many cancer registries do not collect information on CIS. In Sweden CISs are collected, and we used these data to analyze familial relative risks (RRs) for concordant (CIS-CIS) types of anogenital (cervical, other female and male genital and anal) and skin squamous cell CIS; additionally RRs were assessed between CIS types and between CIS and invasive forms. RRs were calculated for the offspring generations when family members were diagnosed CIS. Case numbers for CIS ranged from 330 in anal to 177,285 in cervical CIS. Significant concordant CIS-CIS RRs were 2.74 for female genital, 1.77 for cervical and 2.29 for SCC skin CISs. The CIS forms associated also with each other, except for cervical and skin CIS types. RRs for concordant CIS-invasive cancer associations were lower than CIS-CIS associations. Cervical CIS associated with non-Hodgkin CIS which may suggest immune dysfunction as a contributing factors. The results for anogenital CIS types suggest that life style related human papilloma virus infections contributed to the observed familial associations. Lower risks for CIS-invasive cancer than CIS-CIS suggest that CIS and invasive cancers share only partially risk factors that underlie familial clustering.

Data on familial risks in penile and vulvar/vaginal cancers and in second primary cancers (SPCs) following these cancers are limited. We used the Swedish Family-Cancer Database from years 1958 through 2015 to identify 3641 penile and 8856 vulvar/vaginal cancers and to calculate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for these cancers according to site-specific cancer in family members; additionally risk for SPCs was calculated. The familial RR for concordant (same) penile cancer was 3.22 (1.34-7.74), and it was 2.72 (1.69-4.39) for vulvar/vaginal cancer; RRs were increased for vulvar/vaginal cancer in families of anal cancer patients. RR for second penile cancer after penile cancers was 11.68 (7.95-17.18), while that for concordant vulvar/vaginal cancer was 9.03 (7.31-11.15). SPCs were diagnosed in 16.8% of penile cancer patients and in them 45.9% of deaths were caused by SPC (other than penile cancer). In vulvar/vaginal cancer patients with SPC, 36.4% of deaths were due to SPC. The results showed that these genital cancers might run in families and as SPCs are associated with human papilloma virus and smoking related cancers. Risk for these genital and anal SPCs are high and a follow-up plan should be agreed at diagnosis of these cancers.

While treatment for testicular cancer (TC) has become standardized after the 1980s with an associated significant improvement in patient survival, this has been accompanied by an increased risk of second primary cancers (SPCs). Patients were identified from the Swedish Cancer Registry spanning the years from 1980 to 2015, including 8788 individuals with primary TC and their SPCs. Relative risks (RRs) for SPC were calculated using the generalized Poisson regression model. SPCs were diagnosed in 9.4% of patients with TC and half of them were late onset cancers not common in the population in their 40s. Overall RR of SPCs (excluding second TC) was 1.30 (95%CI: 1.20-1.40), including high risks for seven solid cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and leukemia. Second TC was the most common SPC and the RR of 17.19 (95%CI: 14.89-19.85) was the highest recorded. Cancers known to be fatal as first primary cancers were also fatal as SPC in TC patients. Survival at 30 years of follow-up was approximately 80% for TC patients without SPC but it decreased to 40% for patients with SPC. The unexpected finding that half of the identified SPCs were typical late onset cancers in the middle-aged population raises concerns that therapy may facilitate premature aging. The risks of SPC are clinically important for the long-term management of TC patients and the high-mortality calls for a future management strategy., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Survival rates are increasing in patients with prostate cancer, and second primary cancers (SPCs) are becoming more common in these patients. However, the etiology and clinical consequences of SPCs are not well-known. We define the impact of family history on SPC and causes of mortality in these patients., Patients and Methods: A nation-wide cohort study based on the Swedish Family-Cancer Database covering 4.4 million men and 80,449 prostate cancers diagnosed between 1990 and 2015. Relative risks (RRs) and cumulative incidence for SPCs and for familial SPC were calculated for prostate cancer patients., Results: SPC was diagnosed in 6,396 men and more than a third of these patients had a first-degree family history of any cancer; the familial risk was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.27-1.40), compared to 1.10 (1.08-1.16), without a family history. Cumulative incidence by the age of 83 years reached 21% for prostate cancer alone, 28% in those with SPC, and 35% in patients with SPC and family history. Family history was associated with the risk of seven specific SPCs, including colorectal, lung, kidney, bladder and skin (both melanoma and squamous cell) cancers, and leukemia. Colorectal and lung cancers were common SPCs, and family history doubled the risk of these SPCs. In patients with SPC, half of all causes of death were due to SPC and only 12.77% were due to prostate cancer. Most deaths in SPC were caused by lung and colorectal cancers., Conclusions: SPCs were an important cause of death in patients with prostate cancer and family history was an important risk factor for SPCs. Prevention of SPC should be essential when prostate cancer survival rates are being improved and this could start by conducting a thorough assessment of family history at the time of prostate cancer diagnosis.

Background: Many studies have indicated that colon and rectal cancers differ in etiology and histology., Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate whether the associations of colon and rectal cancers with any other (discordant) cancer were site specific., Design: A novel approach was implemented in which cancer risks were analyzed in families with increasing numbers of family members diagnosed with defined cancers. The novel assumption was that, for a true familial association, the risk should increase by the number of affected family members. In separate analyses, familial risks were calculated after the exclusion of putative families with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer., Settings: The study was conducted using the Swedish Family-Cancer Database., Main Outcome Measures: The outcome measure was relative risk., Results: Relative risks of colorectal cancer and colon cancer were higher when family members were diagnosed with colon cancer than when family members were diagnosed with rectal cancer (incidence rate ratio for colorectal: 1.82 (95% CI, 1.74-1.90) vs 1.61 (95% CI, 1.51-1.71); incidence rate ratio for colon: 1.92 (95% CI, 1.83-2.02) vs 1.56 (95% CI, 1.45-1.69)). Relative risks for 10 discordant cancers were increased in colon or rectal cancer families, whereas none of the relative risks differed significantly between colon and rectal cancers. After deleting hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer families, the relative risks of endometrial and ovarian cancers were no longer significant., Limitations: Genetic data are unavailable in the database., Conclusions: Our results suggested that familial risks for colon cancer were higher than risks for rectal cancer in families of patients with colorectal cancer and colon cancer. The relationships of lung cancer and nervous system cancer with colorectal cancer were site specific. The associations of colon and rectal cancers with lung cancer, myeloma, and cancer of unknown primary appeared not to point out known syndromes and may suggest involvement of a novel predisposition. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A791.

Background: With continuous increases in survival rates following breast cancer (BC) diagnosis, the challenge of multiple primary cancers has become an issue. The data on familial risk of SPCs after BC diagnosis and the related mortality in BC patients are scarce., Methods: A total of 87 752 female BC patients were followed for SPC diagnoses and records of death. Relative risks (RRs) of SPC in BC patients who had first-degree relatives (parents or siblings) affected by the same cancer were compared to the patients without family history. Causes of death were compared between patients with and without SPC., Results: After a median follow-up of 5 years, 14 952 BC patients developed SPCs, among which 10 280 (68.8%) had first-degree relatives diagnosed with cancer. Familial risks were significant for 14 site-specific SPCs, and the highest risk was for second ovarian cancer (RR = 6.28, 95%CI: 4.50-8.75), compared to those without family history (1.49, 1.34-1.65). In patients with SPC, SPC was the main cause of death, including diverse cancers and BC in approximately equal proportions., Conclusions: Family history contributed to the excess number of patients with SPCs, and SPC was the leading cause of death in patients with SPC. Taking family history at diagnosis of BC may provide warning signs with regard to possible subsequent SPCs and may offer possibilities for counseling, intervention and management., (© 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Family risks for urinary tract cancers (excluding kidney cancers) are known, but less is known about whether rare urinary tract cancer subtypes are also familial and if urinary tract cancers share familial risk for other (discordant) cancers., Objective: To investigate the impact of family history on urinary tract cancers (International Classification of Diseases version 7 code 181) and discordant cancers., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Swedish Family-Cancer Database, the largest family data set in the world, was used to assess familial risks between 86 058 patients with urinary tract cancers and patients with other cancers between 1958 and 2015., Outcome Measurements and Statistical Analysis: A Poisson regression model was used to generate relative risks (RRs)., Results and Limitations: Some 7.0% of patients with urinary tract cancers had a parent or sibling diagnosed with the same cancer, yielding an RR of 1.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.68-1.94). As novel familial findings, we also found that ureter (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.53) and transitional cell in situ tumors (RR 2.04, 95% CI 1.49-2.80) were associated with urinary tract cancers. The most consistent discordant familial associations of urinary tract cancers were with smoking-related sites of cancer: lung, stomach, and kidney. Internally consistent familial associations not related to smoking were found for endometrial and thyroid cancers. Familial associations with urinary tract cancers were also found for rare anal, female genital, and cervical cancers. The main limitation was a lack of data on smoking., Conclusions: Smoking-related cancers were associated with urinary tract cancer. We speculate that familial clustering of endometrial and thyroid cancers with urinary tract cancers may be ascribed to obesity., Patient Summary: Diagnosis of bladder cancer in a close family member may be a sign of higher risk among other family members. Patients and family members should be told that bladder cancer is smoking-related and they should be counseled to recognize blood in urine as a possible early sign., (Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Second primary cancers (SPCs) account for an increasing proportion of all cancer diagnoses. It is unlikely that prior therapy is solely responsible for SPC risk. To investigate risk of SPC after diagnosis of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and 10 of its subtypes we conducted a novel bidirectional analysis, SPCs after NHL and NHL as SPC. Using the Swedish Family-Cancer Database, we identified 19,833 individuals with primary NHL diagnosed between 1993 and 2015. We calculated relative risks (RRs) of SPCs in NHL survivors and, for bi-directional analysis, risk of NHL as SPC. The overall RRs were significantly bidirectionally increased for NHL and 7 cancers. After diagnosis of NHL risks were increased for upper aerodigestive tract (RR = 1.96), colorectal (1.35), kidney (3.10), bladder (1.54) and squamous cell skin cancer (SCC) (4.12), melanoma (1.98) and Hodgkin lymphoma (9.38). The concordance between RRs for each bidirectional association between NHL and 31 different cancers was highly significant (r = 0.86, p < 0.0001). Melanoma was bidirectionally associated with all 10 subtypes of NHL. The observed bidirectional associations between NHL and cancer suggest that therapy-related carcinogenic mechanisms cannot solely explain the findings. Considering that skin SCC and melanoma are usually treated by surgery and that these cancers and NHL are most responsive of any cancer to immune suppression, the consistent bidirectional results provide population-level evidence that immune suppressed state is a key underlying mechanism in the context of SPCs. Furthermore, the quantified risks for NHL subtypes have direct clinical application in the management of NHL patients., (© 2018 UICC.)

To assess etiological and clinical consequences of second primary cancers (SPCs) in prostate cancer (PC) patients, we followed newly diagnosed patients to identify men who were diagnosed with a SPC and recorded their causes of death. We used the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to assess relative risks (RRs) and causes of death in SPCs until the year 2015 in patients with a PC diagnosis between 2001 and 2010. Among a total of 4.26 million men, 76 614 were diagnosed with PC at the median age of 71 years. Among them, 8659 (11.3%) received a subsequent diagnosis of SPC after a median follow-up of 4 years. The most common SPCs were colorectal, skin, bladder, and lung cancers, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The ranking was almost identical with first cancers among elderly men in Sweden. The RR for SPCs in prostate-specific antigen-detected PC was approximately equal to RR in other PC. Mortality patterns of PC patients were distinct depending on the presence or absence of SPC. Among patients with SPC, 47.8% died as a result of the corresponding SPC, followed by other causes (22.2%) and PC (18.1%). For patients without SPC, PC and non-neoplastic causes almost matched each other as the main causes of death (48.5% and 47.8%). The results suggest that SPCs appear autonomous from primary PC and reflect incidence and mortality of first cancers in general. SPC was the most common cause of death in patients with SPC; close to half of the patients died due to SPC. For improved survival in PC patients, prevention and early detection of SPCs would be important, and the present results suggest that risk factors for SPC in PC are the same as those for first cancer in general., (© 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Familial risk of ovarian cancer is well-established but whether ovarian cancer clusters with other cancers and the clusters differ by histology remains uncertain. Using data from the Swedish Family-Cancer Database, we explored familial associations of ovarian cancer with other cancers with a novel approach; relative risk for (histology-specific) ovarian cancer was estimated in families with patients affected by other cancers, and conversely, risks for other cancers in families with (histology-specific) ovarian cancer patients. Eight discordant cancers were associated with ovarian cancer risk, of which family history of breast cancer showed a dose-response (P-trend <0.0001). Conversely, risks of eight types of cancer increased in families with ovarian cancer patients, and dose-responses were shown for risks of liver (P-trend = 0.0083) and breast cancers (P-trend <0.0001) and cancer of unknown primary (P-trend = 0.0157). Some cancers were only associated with histology-specific ovarian cancers, e.g. endometrial cancer was only associated with endometrioid type but with highest significance. Novel associations with virus-linked cancers of the nose and male and female genitals were found. The results suggest that ovarian cancer shares susceptibility with a number of other cancers. This might alert genetic counselors and challenge approaches for gene and gene-environment identification.