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We aimed to estimate the absolute and age-standardized number of hip fractures in Sweden during the past two decades to produce time trends and future projections. We used nationwide register data from 1998 to 2019 and a validated algorithm to calculate the annual absolute and age-standardized number of incident hip fractures over time. The total hip fracture burden was 335,399 incident events over the 22 years, with a change from 16,180 in 1998 to 13,929 in 2019, a 14% decrease. One decade after the index hip fracture event, 80% of the patients had died, and 11% had a new hip fracture. After considering the steady growth of the older population, the decline in the age-standardized number of hip fractures from 1998 through 2019 was 29.2% (95% CI 28.1–30.2%) in women and 29.3% (95% CI 27.5–30.7%) in men. With a continued similar reduction in hip fracture incidence, we can predict that 14,800 hip fractures will occur in 2034 and 12,000 in 2050 despite doubling the oldest old (≥ 80 years). Without an algorithm, a naïve estimate of the total number of hip fractures over the study period was 539,947, with a second 10-year hip fracture risk of 35%. We note an ongoing decline in the absolute and age-standardized actual number of hip fractures in Sweden, with consequences for future projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has been hypothesized to protect against COVID‐19, but previous observational studies of men with prostate cancer on ADT have been inconsistent regarding mortality risk from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). Using data from the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe), we identified a cohort of 114 547 men with prevalent prostate cancer on the start of follow‐up in February 2020, and followed them until 16 December 2020 to evaluate the association between ADT and time to test positive for COVID‐19. Among men testing positive for COVID‐19, we used regression analyses to estimate the association between ADT and risk of COVID‐19‐related hospital admission/death from any cause within 30 days of the positive test. In total, 1695 men with prostate cancer tested positive for COVID‐19. In crude analyses, exposure to ADT was associated with a 3‐fold increased risk of both testing positive for COVID‐19 infection and subsequent hospital admission/death. Adjustment for age, comorbidity and prostate cancer risk category substantially attenuated the associations: HR 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1‐1.5) for testing positive for COVID‐19, and OR 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0‐1.9) for risk of subsequent hospital admission/death. In conclusion, although these results suggest increased risks of a positive COVID‐19 test, and COVID‐19‐related hospital admission/death in men on ADT, these findings are likely explained by confounding by old age, cancer‐associated morbidity and other comorbidities being more prevalent in men on ADT, rather than a direct effect of the therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Androgens facilitate entrance of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 into respiratory epithelial cells, and male sex is associated with a higher risk of death from corona virus disease (COVID-19). Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) could possibly improve COVID-19 outcomes. In a case–control study nested in the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe) RAPID 2019, we evaluated the association between ADT and COVID-19 as registered cause of death in men with prostate cancer. Each case was matched to 50 controls by region. We used conditional logistic regression to adjust for confounders and also evaluated potential impact of residual confounding. We identified 474 men who died from COVID-19 in March–December 2020. In crude analyses, ADT exposure was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death (odds ratio [OR] 5.05, 95% CI: 4.18–6.10); however, the OR was substantially attenuated after adjustment for age, comorbidity, prostate cancer characteristics at diagnosis, recent healthcare use, and indicators of advanced cancer (adjusted OR 1.25, 95% CI: 0.95–1.65). If adjustment has accounted for at least 85% of confounding, then the true effect could be no more than a 5% reduction of the odds for COVID-19 death. The increased mortality from COVID-19 in men with prostate cancer treated with ADT was mainly related to high age, comorbidity, and more advanced prostate cancer. There was no evidence to support the hypothesis that ADT is associated with improved COVID-19 outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article informs about time on treatment with abiraterone in men with de novo metastatic castration sensitive prostate cancer. Topics include demonstrated an increased overall survival by addition of the androgen receptor targeted agent abiraterone acetate to gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist treatment in men; and drug utilization in routine care to detect signals suggesting a potentially different effectiveness in clinical practice.

Introduction: For clinical decision-making, an estimate of remaining lifetime is needed to assess benefit against harm of a treatment during the remaining lifespan. Here, we describe how to predict life expectancy based on age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and a Drug Comorbidity Index (DCI), whilst also considering potential future changes in CCI and DCI using population-based data on Swedish men.Methods: Simulations based on annual updates of vital status, CCI and DCI were used to estimate life expectancy at population level. The probabilities of these transitions were determined from generalised linear models using prostate cancer-free comparison men in PCBaSe Sweden. A simulation was performed for each combination of age, CCI, and DCI. Survival curves were created and compared to observed survival. Life expectancy was then calculated as the area under the simulated survival curve.Results: There was good agreement between observed and simulated survival curves for most ages and comorbidities, except for younger men. With increasing age and comorbidity, there was a decrease in life expectancy. Cross-validation based on six regions in Sweden also showed that simulated and observed survival was similar.Conclusion: Our proposed method provides an alternative statistical approach to estimate life expectancy at population level based on age and comorbidity assessed by routinely collected information on diagnoses and filled prescriptions available in nationwide health care registers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Men have a higher risk of death from COVID-19 than women and androgens facilitate entrance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus into respiratory epithelial cells. Thus, androgen deprivation therapy may reduce infection rates and improve outcomes for COVID-19. In the spring of 2020, Sweden was highly affected by COVID-19. The aim was to estimate the impact of androgen deprivation therapy on mortality from COVID-19 in men with prevalent prostate cancer by comparing all-cause mortality in the spring of 2020 to that in previous years. Patients and methods: Using the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden all men with prostate cancer on March 1 each year in 2015–2020 were followed until June 30 the same year. Exposure to androgen deprivation therapy was ascertained from filled prescriptions for bicalutamide monotherapy, gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists (GnRH), or bilateral orchidectomy. Results: A total of 9,822 men died in March-June in the years 2015–2020, of whom 5,034 men were on androgen deprivation therapy. There was an excess mortality in 2020 vs previous years in all men. The crude relative mortality rate ratio for 2020 vs 2015–2019 was 0.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83 to 1.04) in men on GnRH, and 0.90 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.05) in men on bicalutamide monotherapy. After multivariable adjustment these ratios were attenuated to 1.00 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.12) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.12), respectively. When restricting the analysis to the regions with the highest incidence of COVID-19 or to the time period between 2 April to 10 June when mortality in 2020 was increased >30% compared to previous years, the results were similar to the main analysis. Conclusions: In this large national population-based cohort of men with prevalent prostate cancer, there was no clear evidence in support for an effect of androgen deprivation therapy on COVID-19 mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of quinolones has recently been questioned due to reports on side effects including an increased risk of aortic aneurysm. The aim of the study was to examine the risk of aortic aneurysm (AA) after short-term ciprofloxacin as prophylaxis for prostate biopsy. We used the Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden and investigated 192,024 prostate biopsy exposures vs. 554,974 non-exposures for risk of AA. Prostate biopsy was used as a proxy for quinolone use as short-term ciprofloxacin is the recommended and documented prophylaxis in Sweden for this procedure. The outcome was the hazard ratio (HR) of AA in men who underwent a biopsy vs. those that did not. The absolute risk of AA was small, 39/10,000 person years for all AÁs and for ruptured AÁs 3.5/10,000 person years. In multivariate analyses, there were small, non-significant increases in risk of all AA's (adjusted HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.39) and ruptured AÁs (adjusted HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.52 to 2.15) in men who underwent biopsy. A significantly increased risk of AA was observed in men diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer on biopsy (HR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.15–2.21). The use of prostate biopsy as a proxy for exposure to ciprofloxacin was a limitation of the study. Short-term ciprofloxacin was not associated with an increased risk of aortic aneurysm and the increased risk in men with high-risk prostate cancer was likely due detection bias caused by imaging more commonly performed in these men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Men with prostate cancer (PCa) on gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists (GnRH) have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared to men with PCa not on GnRH as well as compared with PCa-free men. Whether the addition of androgen receptor targeted (ART) drugs to GnRH further increases CVD risk, remains to be fully elucidated. We investigated risk of CVD for men with castration resistant PCa (CRPC) on GnRH plus ART; abiraterone or enzalutamide vs 5,127 and 12,079 respective matched comparator men on GnRH in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSeTraject) 4.1 between 1 June 2015 and 31 December 2018. PCBaSeTraject links National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden to other healthcare registries and demographic databases. We conducted multivariable Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for PCa risk category, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), insulin or statin use, civil status, level of education, history of CVD events and number of CVD drugs, with any incident or fatal CVD as the outcome. 1,310 men were treated with abiraterone and 3,579 with enzalutamide. In multivariable analysis, CVD risk was increased in men on abiraterone (hazard ratio (HR): 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.38) and in men on enzalutamide (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.01–1.20). Men with a recent CVD (<12 months) including both men on ART as well as comparators had a much higher probability of a new CVD vs men with no prior CVD. CVD risk was mildly increased in men with PCa on GnRH plus abiraterone or enzalutamide vs comparator men on GnRH. Residual confounding and detection bias may at least partly explain this association. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been rapidly implemented in national vaccination programs world-wide after accelerated approval processes. The large population exposure achieved in very short time requires systematic monitoring of safety. The Swedish Medical Products Agency has launched a project platform for epidemiological surveillance to detect and characterise suspected adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines in Sweden. Methods: The platform includes all individuals 12 years or older in Sweden in 2021 and will be updated annually. Data, including vaccine and COVID-19 disease data, socioeconomic and demographic data, comorbidity, prescribed medicines and healthcare utilisation outcomes, are obtained from several national registers in collaboration with other Swedish Government agencies. Data from 2015 to 2019 are used as a historical comparison cohort unexposed to both the COVID-19 pandemic and to the COVID-19 vaccines. Results: The primary study cohort includes 8,305,978 adults 18 years and older permanently residing in Sweden on 31 December 2020. The historical control cohort includes 8,679,641 subjects. By 31 July 2021, around 50% of those 18 years and older and two-thirds of those 50 years and older were vaccinated with at least one dose, 90% of those 70 years or older had two doses. Conclusions: The nationwide register-based study cohort created by the Swedish Medical Products Agency with regular updates of individual level linkage of COVID-19 vaccination exposure data to other health data registers will facilitate both safety signal detection and evaluation and other pharmacoepidemiological studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the article, the authors discuss their study to assess uptake of the new indication for upfront utilization of abiraterone plus prednisolone with gondadotropin releasing hormone agonist (GnRH) in men with de novo high-risk metastatic hormone sensitive (mHSPC) and castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). Also cited are how the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was calculated, and the use of Sweden's National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR) data in the study.

Background: To predict mortality risk in victims of violent crimes based on individual injury diagnoses and other information available in health care registries.Methods: Data from the Swedish hospital discharge registry and the cause of death registry were combined to identify 15,000 hospitalisations or prehospital deaths related to violent crimes. The ability of patient characteristics, injury type and severity, and cause of injury to predict death was modelled using conventional, Lasso, or Bayesian logistic regression in a development dataset and evaluated in a validation dataset.Results: Of 14,470 injury events severe enough to cause death or hospitalization 3.7% (556) died before hospital admission and 0.5% (71) during the hospital stay. The majority (76%) of hospital survivors had minor injury severity and most (67%) were discharged from hospital within 1day. A multivariable model with age, sex, the ICD-10 based injury severity score (ICISS), cause of injury, and major injury region provided predictions with very good discrimination (C-index=0.99) and calibration. Adding information on major injury interactions further improved model performance. Modeling individual injury diagnoses did not improve predictions over the combined ICISS score.Conclusions: Mortality risk after violent crimes can be accurately estimated using administrative data. The use of Bayesian regression models provides meaningful risk assessment with more straightforward interpretation of uncertainty of the prediction, potentially also on the individual level. This can aid estimation of incidence trends over time and comparisons of outcome of violent crimes for injury surveillance and in forensic medicine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: International research for acute myocardial infarction lacks comparisons of whole health systems. We assessed time trends for care and outcomes in Sweden and the UK. Methods: We used data from national registries on consecutive patients registered between 2004 and 2010 in all hospitals providing care for acute coronary syndrome in Sweden and the UK. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality 30 days after admission. We compared effectiveness of treatment by indirect casemix standardisation. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01359033. Findings: We assessed data for 119 786 patients in Sweden and 391 077 in the UK. 30-day mortality was 7·6% (95% CI 7·4—7·7) in Sweden and 10·5% (10·4—10·6) in the UK. Mortality was higher in the UK in clinically relevant subgroups defined by troponin concentration, ST-segment elevation, age, sex, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus status, and smoking status. In Sweden, compared with the UK, there was earlier and more extensive uptake of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (59% vs 22%) and more frequent use of β blockers at discharge (89% vs 78%). After casemix standardisation the 30-day mortality ratio for UK versus Sweden was 1·37 (95% CI 1·30—1·45), which corresponds to 11 263 (95% CI 9620—12 827) excess deaths, but did decline over time (from 1·47, 95% CI 1·38—1·58 in 2004 to 1·20, 1·12—1·29 in 2010; p=0·01). Interpretation: We found clinically important differences between countries in acute myocardial infarction care and outcomes. International comparisons research might help to improve health systems and prevent deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To assess whether higher mortality rates among individuals in motor vehicle crashes in areas with low population density depend on injury type and severity or are related to the performance of emergency medical services (EMS). Methods Prehospital and hospital deaths were studied in a population-based cohort of 41 243 motor vehicle crashes that occurred in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. The final multivariable analysis was restricted to 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, to minimise the effects of confounding factors. Results Crude mortality rates following motor vehicle crashes were inversely related to regional population density. In regions with low population density, the unadjusted rate ratio for prehospital death was 2.2 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.5) and for hospital death 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9), compared with a high-density population. However, after controlling for regional differences in age, gender and the type/severity of injuries among 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, low population density was no longer associated with increased mortality. At 25 years of age, predicted prehospital mortality was 9% lower (95% CI 5% to 12%) in regions with low population density compared with high population density. This difference decreased with increasing age, but was still 3% lower (95% CI 0.5% to 5%) at 65 years of age. Conclusions The inverse relationship between population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes is related to pre-crash factors that influence the type and severity of injuries and not to differences in EMS. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article presents an abstract of the study related to the dietary calcium intake and risk of fracture and osteoporosis.

Background Classification of injuries and estimation of injury severity on the basis of ICD-10 injury coding are powerful epidemiological tools. Little is known about the characteristics and consequences of primary coding errors and their consequences for such applications. Materials and methods From the Swedish national hospital discharge register, 15 899 incident injury cases primarily admitted to the two hospitals in Uppsala County between 2000 and 2004 were identified. Of these, 967 randomly selected patient records were reviewed. Errors in injury diagnosis were corrected, and the consequences of these changes were analysed. Results Out of 1370 injury codes, 10% were corrected, but 95% of the injury codes were correct to the third position. In 21% (95% CI 19% to 24%) of 967 hospital admissions, at least one ICD-10 code for injury was changed or added, but only 13% (127) had some change made to their injury mortality diagnosis matrix classification. Among the cases with coding errors, the mean ICD-based injury severity score changed slightly (difference 0.016; 95% CI 0.007 to 0.032). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.892 for predicting hospital mortality and remained essentially unchanged after the correction of codes (95% CI for difference -0.022 to 0.013). Conclusion Errors in ICD-10-coded injuries in hospital discharge data were common, but the consequences for injury categorisation were moderate and the consequences for injury severity estimates were in most cases minor. The error rate for detailed levels of cause-of-injury codes was high and may be detrimental for identifying specific targets for prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Background: The Prehospital Trauma Life Support (PHTLS) course has been widely implemented and approximately half a million prehospital caregivers in over 50 countries have taken this course. Still, the effect on injury outcome remains to be established. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between PHTLS training of ambulance crew members and the mortality in trauma patients. Methods: A population-based observational study of 2830 injured patients, who either died or were hospitalized for more than 24h, was performed during gradual implementation of PHTLS in Uppsala County in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. Prehospital patient records were linked to hospital-discharge records, cause-of-death records, and information on PHTLS training and the educational level of ambulance crews. The main outcome measure was death, on scene or in hospital. Results: Adjusting for multiple potential confounders, PHTLS training appeared to be associated with a reduction in mortality, but the precision of this estimate was poor (odds ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.42–1.19). The mortality risk was 4.7% (36/763) without PHTLS training and 4.5% (94/2067) with PHTLS training. The predicted absolute risk reduction is estimated to correspond to 0.5 lives saved annually per 100,000 population with PHTLS fully implemented. Conclusions: PHTLS training of ambulance crew members may be associated with reduced mortality in trauma patients, but the precision in this estimate was low due to the overall low mortality. While there may be a relative risk reduction, the predicted absolute risk reduction in this population was low. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Importance: It is uncertain to what extent watchful waiting (WW) in men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer (PCa) and a life expectancy of less than 10 years is associated with adverse consequences., Objective: To report transitions to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), death from PCa, or death from other causes in men treated with a WW strategy., Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide, population-based cohort study included men with nonmetastatic PCa diagnosed since 2007 and registered in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden with WW as the primary treatment strategy and with life expectancy less than 10 years. Life expectancy was calculated based on age, the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and a drug comorbidity index. Observed state transition models complemented observed data to extend follow-up to more than 20 years. Analyses were performed between 2022 and 2023., Exposure: Nonmetastatic PCa., Main Outcomes and Measures: Transitions to ADT, CRPC, death from PCa, and death from other causes were measured using state transition modeling., Results: The sample included 5234 men (median [IQR] age at diagnosis, 81 [79-84] years). After 5 years, 954 men with low-risk PCa (66.2%) and 740 with high-risk PCa (36.1%) were still alive and not receiving ADT. At 10 years, the corresponding proportions were 25.5% (n = 367) and 10.4% (n = 213), respectively. After 10 years, 59 men with low-risk PCa (4.1%) and 221 with high-risk PCa (10.8%) had transitioned to CRPC. Ten years after diagnosis, 1330 deaths in the low-risk group (92.3%) and 1724 in the high-risk group (84.1%) were from causes other than PCa., Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the WW management strategy is appropriate for minimizing adverse consequences of PCa in men with a baseline life expectancy of less than 10 years.

Assessment of comorbidity is crucial for confounding adjustment and prediction of mortality in register-based studies, but the commonly used Charlson comorbidity index is not sufficiently predictive. We aimed to develop a multidimensional diagnosis-based comorbidity index (MDCI) that captures comorbidity better than the Charlson Comorbidity index. The index was developed based on 286,688 men free of prostate cancer randomly selected from the Swedish general population, and validated in 54,539 men without and 68,357 men with prostate cancer. All ICD-10 codes from inpatient and outpatient discharges during 10 years prior to the index date were used to define variables indicating frequency of code occurrence, recency, and total duration of related hospital admissions. Penalized Cox regression was used to predict 10-year all-cause mortality. The MDCI predicted risk of death better than the Charlson comorbidity index, with a c-index of 0.756 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.751, 0.762) vs 0.688 (95% CI = 0.683, 0.693) in the validation cohort of men without prostate cancer. Men in the lowest vs highest MDCI quartile had distinctively different survival in the validation cohort of men with prostate cancer, with an overall hazard ratio [HR] of 5.08 (95% CI = 4.90, 5.26). This was also consistent within strata of age and Charlson comorbidity index, e.g. HR = 5.90 (95% CI = 4.65, 7.50) in men younger than 60 years with CCI 0. These results indicate that comorbidity assessment in register-based studies can be improved by use of all ICD-10 codes and taking related frequency, recency, and duration of hospital admissions into account., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Westerberg et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Randomised controlled trials have demonstrated prolonged survival with new upfront treatments in addition to standard androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in men with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer. We describe patient characteristics, time trends and regional differences in uptake of these new treatment strategies in clinical practice., Material and Methods: This descriptive study consisted of men registered in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden from 1 January 2018 to 31 March 2022 with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer defined by the presence of metastases on imaging at the time of diagnosis. Life expectancy was calculated based on age, Charlson Comorbidity Index and a Drug Comorbidity Index., Results: Within 6 months from diagnosis, 57% (1,677/2,959) of men with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer and more than 3 years of life expectancy had received docetaxel, abiraterone, enzalutamide, apalutamide and/or radiotherapy. Over time, there was a 2-fold increase in uptake of any added treatment, mainly driven by a 6-fold increase in use of abiraterone, enzalutamide or apalutamide, with little change in use of other treatments., Conclusions: Slightly more than half of men diagnosed with de novo metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer and a life expectancy of at least 3 years received additions to standard ADT as recommended by national guidelines in 2019-2022 in Sweden. There was a 2-fold increase in use of these treatments during the study period; however, efforts to further increase adherence to guidelines are warranted.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines are associated with an increased risk of myocarditis using hospital discharge diagnoses as an outcome. The validity of these register-based diagnoses is uncertain., Methods: Patient records for subjects < 40 years of age and a diagnosis of myocarditis in the Swedish National Patient Register were manually reviewed. Brighton Collaboration diagnosis criteria for myocarditis were applied based on patient history, clinical examination, laboratory data, electrocardiograms, echocardiography, magnetic resonance imaging and myocardial biopsy. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios, comparing the register-based outcome variable to validated outcomes. Interrater reliability was assessed by a blinded re-evaluation., Results: Overall, 95.6% (327/342) of cases registered as myocarditis were confirmed (definite, probable or possible myocarditis according to Brighton Collaboration diagnosis criteria, positive predictive value 0.96 [95% CI 0.93-0.98]). Of the 4.4% (15/342) cases reclassified as no myocarditis or as insufficient information, two cases had been exposed to the COVID-19 vaccine no more than 28 days before the myocarditis diagnosis, two cases were exposed >28 days before admission and 11 cases were unexposed to the vaccine. The reclassification had only minor impact on incidence rate ratios for myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination. In total, 51 cases were sampled for a blinded re-evaluation. Of the 30 randomly sampled cases initially classified as either definite or probably myocarditis, none were re-classified after re-evaluation. Of the in all 15 cases initially classified as no myocarditis or insufficient information, 7 were after re-evaluation re-classified as probable or possible myocarditis. This re-classification was mostly due to substantial variability in electrocardiogram interpretation., Conclusion: This validation of register-based diagnoses of myocarditis by manual patient record review confirmed the register diagnosis in 96% of cases and had high interrater reliability. Reclassification had only a minor impact on the incidence rate ratios for myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination., Competing Interests: Dr Sundström reported participating in research funded by governmental agencies, universities, Astellas Pharma, Janssen Biotech, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Roche, (then) Abbott Laboratories, (then) Schering-Plough, UCB Nordic and Sobi, with all funds paid to Karolinska Institutet, outside the submitted work. Dr Grünewald reported being involved in the European Medicines Agency regulatory assessment of Comirnaty; being previously employed at a drug development consultancy firm with cross-product responsibilities and being involved on a project for pertussis vaccines funded by Sanofi Pasteur, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp, and GlaxoSmithKline at the Swedish Agency of Infectious Disease Control. Dr Ljung reported receiving grants from Sanofi Aventis paid to his institution outside the submitted work and receiving personal fees from Pfizer outside the submitted work., (© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Upsala Medical Society.)

Purpose: To estimate risk for narcolepsy in defined time windows following exposure to adjuvanted A(H1N1) pandemic vaccine (Pandemrix) and impact of different definitions of index date for the narcolepsy diagnosis., Methods: Vaccine exposure in approximately 30% of the Swedish population in 2009 was linked to information on narcolepsy diagnosis retrieved from the national patient registry. Cases were verified by a systematic chart review. Poisson regression was used to compare incidence in defined time windows following vaccination., Results: Of 266 cases of narcolepsy identified, 25% (66/266) were prevalent cases with symptom onset documented before vaccine exposure. Incident cases had a median time interval between first symptom and the date recorded in the patient registry of 64 weeks (IQR 39-107) when vaccinated (N = 182) and 65 weeks (IQR 51-72) when unvaccinated (N = 16). With first symptom defining index date, the adjusted risk for narcolepsy in younger patients was increased 14 times during the first year after vaccination, three times elevated the second year, but with no detectable increased risk more than 2 years after vaccination exposure. Using the index date from the patient registry, the adjusted increase in risk was about seven times elevated for all three time intervals., Conclusions: The magnitude of the estimated increased risk for narcolepsy following exposure to the A(H1N1) pandemic vaccine is highly dependent on the method used to determine the index date for disease onset. The sometimes very long and potentially variable interval from first symptom to a health care registry diagnosis complicates estimations of risk., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Background: A female survival advantage after injury has been observed, and animal models of trauma have suggested either hormonal or genetic mechanisms as component causes. Our aim was to compare age and risk-adjusted sex-related mortality in hospital for the three most common mechanisms of injury in relation to hormonal effects as seen by age., Methods: All hospital admissions for injury in Sweden during the period 2001-2011 were retrieved from the National Patient Registry and linked to the Cause of Death Registry. The International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score (ICISS) was used to adjust for injury severity, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index to adjust for comorbidity. Age categories (0-14, 15-50, and ≥ 51 years) were used to represent pre-menarche, reproductive and post- menopausal women., Results: Women had overall a survival benefit (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.53) after adjustment for injury severity and comorbidity. A similar pattern was seen across the age categories (0-14 years OR 0.56 (95% CI 0.25 to 1.25), 15-50 years OR 0.70 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.87), and ≥ 51 years OR 0.49 (95% CI 0.48 to 0.51))., Conclusion: In this 11-year population-based study we found no support for an oestrogen-related mechanism to explain the survival advantage for females compared to males following hospitalisation for injury.

Aim: The aim of this study was to describe content and procedures in some selected Swedish health care quality registries (QRs) of relevance to regulatory decision-making., Methods: A workshop was organized with participation of seven Swedish QRs which subsequently answered a questionnaire regarding registry content on drug treatments and outcomes. Patient populations, coverage, data handling and quality control, as well as legal and ethical aspects are presented. Scientific publications from the QRs are used as a complementary measure of quality and scientific relevance., Results: The registries under study collect clinical data of high relevance to regulatory and health technology agencies. Five out of seven registries provide information on the drug of interest. When applying external quality criteria, we found a high degree of fulfillment, although information on medication was not sufficient to answer all questions of regulatory interest. A notable strength is the option for linkage to the Prescribed Drug Registry and to information on education and socioeconomic status. Data on drugs used during hospitalization were also collected to some extent. Outcome measures collected resemble those used in relevant clinical trials. All registries collected patient-reported outcome measures. The number of publications from the registries was substantial, with studies of appropriate design, including randomized registry trials., Conclusions: Quality registries may provide a valuable source of post-marketing data on drug effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness. Closer collaboration between registries and regulators to improve quality and usefulness of registry data could benefit both regulatory utility and value for health care providers.

Purpose: To estimate the incidence trend and outcome of paracetamol poisoning, in relation to increased availability of paracetamol from non-pharmacy outlets in 2009., Method: Patients' serum paracetamol results over 14 years (2000-2013) from 20 (out of 21) regions in Sweden were linked to national registers of hospital care, cause of death, and prescriptions. Paracetamol poisonings were defined by serum paracetamol levels, hospital diagnoses, or cause of death. The change in incidence of poisonings following increased availability of paracetamol was analysed by using segmental regression of time series., Results: Of the 12 068 paracetamol poisonings, 85% were classified as intentional self-harm. Following increased availability from non-pharmacy outlets, there was a 40.5% increase in the incidence of paracetamol poisoning, from 11.5/100 000 in 2009 to 16.2/100 000 in 2013. Regression analyses indicated a change in the trend (p < 0.0001) but not an immediate jump in the incidence (p = 0.5991) following the increased availability. Adjusting for trends in hospital episodes for self-harm, suicides, and the sales volume of paracetamol did not influence the result. All-cause mortality at 30 days (3.2%) did not change over time., Conclusions: The incidence of paracetamol poisoning in Sweden has increased since 2009, contrasting the decreased incidence in the period of 2007-2009. The change in trend was temporally associated with the introduction of availability of paracetamol from non-pharmacy outlets but did not appear to be related to sales volume of paracetamol or general trends in self-harm or suicides. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., (© 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Context: The importance of dietary vitamin D for osteoporotic fracture prevention is uncertain., Objective: Our objective was to investigate associations between dietary vitamin D intake with risk of fracture and osteoporosis., Design and Participants: In the population-based Swedish Mammography Cohort (including 61 433 women followed for 19 years), diet was assessed by repeated food frequency questionnaires., Setting: The study was conducted in 2 municipalities in central Sweden., Main Outcome Measure: Incident fractures were identified from registry data. In a subcohort (n = 5022), bone mineral density was determined by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was measured using HPLC-tandem mass spectrometry., Results: A total of 14 738 women experienced any type of first fracture during follow-up, and 3871 had a hip fracture. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for any first fracture was 0.96 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-1.01) for the lowest (mean, 3.1 μg/d) and 1.02 (0.96-1.07) for the highest (mean, 6.9 μg/d) quintile compared with the third quintile of vitamin D intake. The corresponding HR for a first hip fracture was 1.02 (0.96-1.08) for the lowest and 1.14 (1.03-1.26) for the highest quintile. Intakes >10 μg/d, compared with <5 μg/d, conferred an HR of 1.02 (0.92-1.13) for any fracture and an HR of 1.27 (1.03-1.57) for hip fracture. The intake of vitamin D did not affect the odds for osteoporosis, although higher levels were associated with higher bone mineral density (0.3%-2%, P < .0001). A positive association was observed between vitamin D intake and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D., Conclusions: Dietary intakes of vitamin D seem of minor importance for the occurrence of fractures and osteoporosis in community-dwelling Swedish women.

Background: The International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10)-based Injury Severity Score (ICISS) performs well but requires diagnosis-specific survival probabilities (DSPs), which are empirically derived, for its calculation. The objective was to examine if DSPs based on data pooled from several countries could increase accuracy, precision, utility, and international comparability of DSPs and ICISS., Methods: Australia, Argentina, Austria, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, and Sweden provided ICD-10-coded injury hospital discharge data, including in-hospital mortality status. Data from the seven countries were pooled using four different methods to create an international collaborative effort ICISS (ICE-ICISS). The ability of the ICISS to predict mortality using the country-specific DSPs and the pooled DSPs was estimated and compared., Results: The pooled DSPs were based on a total of 3,966,550 observations of injury diagnoses from the seven countries. The proportion of injury diagnoses having at least 100 discharges to calculate the DSP varied from 12% to 48% in the country-specific data set and was 66% in the pooled data set. When compared with using a country's own DSPs for ICISS calculation, the pooled DSPs resulted in somewhat reduced discrimination in predicting mortality (difference in c statistic varied from 0.006 to 0.04). Calibration was generally good when the predicted mortality risk was less than 20%. When Danish and Swedish data were used, ICISS was combined with age and sex in a logistic regression model to predict in-hospital mortality. Including age and sex improved both discrimination and calibration substantially, and the differences from using country-specific or pooled DSPs were minor., Conclusion: Pooling data from seven countries generated empirically derived DSPs. These pooled DSPs facilitate international comparisons and enables the use of ICISS in all settings where ICD-10 hospital discharge diagnoses are available. The modest reduction in performance of the ICE-ICISS compared with the country-specific scores is unlikely to outweigh the benefit of internationally comparable Injury Severity Scores possible with pooled data., Level of Evidence: Prognostic and epidemiological study, level III.

Background: There is limited evidence that the widely implemented Prehospital Trauma Life Support (PHTLS) educational program improves patient outcomes. The primary aim of this national study in Sweden was to investigate the association between regional implementation of PHTLS training and mortality after traffic injuries., Study Design: We extracted information from the Swedish National Patient Registry and the Cause of Death Registry on victims of motor-vehicle traffic injuries in Sweden from 2001 to 2004 (N = 28,041). During this time period, PHTLS training was implemented at a varying pace in different regions. To control for other influences on patient outcomes related to regional and hospital-level effects, such as variations in performance of trauma care systems, we used Bayesian hierarchical regression models to estimate odds ratios for prehospital mortality and 30-day mortality after hospital admission. We also controlled for the calendar year for each injury to account for period effects. We analyzed the time to death after hospital admission and time to return to work using Cox's proportional hazards frailty models., Results: After multivariable adjustment, the odds ratio for prehospital mortality with PHTLS-trained prehospital staff was 1.54 (95% credibility interval, 1.07-2.13). For 30-day mortality among those surviving to hospital admission, the odds ratio was 0.85 (95% credibility interval, 0.45-1.48). There was no association between PHTLS training and time to death (hazard ratio = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.85-1.14) or time to return to work (hazard ratio = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.92-1.05)., Conclusions: In this observational study, the implementation of PHTLS training did not appear to be associated with reduced mortality or ability to return to work after motor-vehicle traffic injuries., (Copyright © 2013 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

FRAX is a tool that identifies individuals with high fracture risk who will benefit from pharmacological treatment of osteoporosis. However, a majority of fractures among elderly occur in people without osteoporosis and most occur after a fall. Our aim was to accurately identify men with a high future risk of fracture, independent of cause. In the population-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) and using survival analysis we studied different models' prognostic values (R(2)) for any fracture and hip fracture within 10 years from age 50 (n = 2322), 60 (n = 1852), 71 (n = 1221), and 82 (n = 526) years. During the total follow-up period from age 50 years, 897 fractures occurred in 585 individuals. Of these, 281 were hip fractures occurring in 189 individuals. The rates of any fracture were 5.7/1000 person-years at risk from age 50 years and 25.9/1000 person-years at risk from age 82 years. Corresponding hip fractures rates were 2.9 and 11.7/1000 person-years at risk. The FRAX model included all variables in FRAX except bone mineral density. The full model combining FRAX variables, comorbidity, medications, and behavioral factors explained 25% to 45% of all fractures and 80% to 92% of hip fractures, depending on age. The corresponding prognostic values of the FRAX model were 7% to 17% for all fractures and 41% to 60% for hip fractures. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) comparing the full model with the FRAX model ranged between 40% and 53% for any fracture and between 40% and 87% for hip fracture. Within the highest quintile of predicted fracture risk with the full model, one-third of the men will have a fracture within 10 years after age 71 years and two-thirds after age 82 years. We conclude that the addition of comorbidity, medication, and behavioral factors to the clinical components of FRAX can substantially improve the ability to identify men at high risk of fracture, especially hip fracture., (Copyright © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Background: To determine the frequency and characteristics of prehospital deaths compared with hospital deaths in different subpopulations with severe injuries., Methods: Population-based cohort study using person-based linkage of the Swedish nationwide hospital discharge register with death certificate data. In all, 28,715 injury deaths were identified among 419,137 cases of severe injury during 1998 to 2004. Prehospital deaths were defined as autopsied out-of-hospital deaths with injury as the underlying cause. Their impact on mortality prediction was assessed using the International Classification of Disease Injury Severity Score with the C statistic as a measure of discrimination., Results: The majority of all injury deaths occurred either at the scene or before hospitalization. Among persons younger than 65 years, for each hospital death there were nine prehospital deaths. A high proportion of deaths from drowning, suffocation, and firearm injuries were prehospital (85, 82, and 67% of all cases, respectively). More than 90% of hospital deaths resulted from unintentional injuries, while only 43% of prehospital deaths were unintentional. The largest increase in a cause-specific case fatality risk estimate was seen for poisoning, where inclusion of prehospital deaths increased the risk estimate from 1.6% to 22.8%. Injury mortality prediction based on International Classification of Disease Injury Severity Score improved when prehospital deaths were added to hospital data (C statistic increased from 0.86 to 0.93)., Conclusions: Prehospital deaths constitute the majority of trauma deaths and differ in major characteristics from hospital deaths. The high proportion of prehospital deaths among young and middle aged people highlights the potential impact of preventive efforts., Level of Evidence: III.

Objective: To investigate associations between long term dietary intake of calcium and risk of fracture of any type, hip fractures, and osteoporosis., Design: A longitudinal and prospective cohort study, based on the Swedish Mammography Cohort, including a subcohort, the Swedish Mammography Cohort Clinical., Setting: A population based cohort in Sweden established in 1987., Participants: 61,433 women (born between 1914 and 1948) were followed up for 19 years. 5022 of these women participated in the subcohort., Main Outcome Measures: Primary outcome measures were incident fractures of any type and hip fractures, which were identified from registry data. Secondary outcome was osteoporosis diagnosed by dual energy x ray absorptiometry in the subcohort. Diet was assessed by repeated food frequency questionnaires., Results: During follow-up, 14,738 women (24%) experienced a first fracture of any type and among them 3871 (6%) a first hip fracture. Of the 5022 women in the subcohort, 1012 (20%) were measured as osteoporotic. The risk patterns with dietary calcium were non-linear. The crude rate of a first fracture of any type was 17.2/1000 person years at risk in the lowest quintile of calcium intake, and 14.0/1000 person years at risk in the third quintile, corresponding to a multivariable adjusted hazard ratio of 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.25). The hazard ratio for a first hip fracture was 1.29 (1.17 to 1.43) and the odds ratio for osteoporosis was 1.47 (1.09 to 2.00). With a low vitamin D intake, the rate of fracture in the first calcium quintile was more pronounced. The highest quintile of calcium intake did not further reduce the risk of fractures of any type, or of osteoporosis, but was associated with a higher rate of hip fracture, hazard ratio 1.19 (1.06 to 1.32)., Conclusion: Gradual increases in dietary calcium intake above the first quintile in our female population were not associated with further reductions in fracture risk or osteoporosis.

Background: Classification of injuries and estimation of injury severity on the basis of ICD-10 injury coding are powerful epidemiological tools. Little is known about the characteristics and consequences of primary coding errors and their consequences for such applications., Materials and Methods: From the Swedish national hospital discharge register, 15,899 incident injury cases primarily admitted to the two hospitals in Uppsala County between 2000 and 2004 were identified. Of these, 967 randomly selected patient records were reviewed. Errors in injury diagnosis were corrected, and the consequences of these changes were analysed., Results: Out of 1370 injury codes, 10% were corrected, but 95% of the injury codes were correct to the third position. In 21% (95% CI 19% to 24%) of 967 hospital admissions, at least one ICD-10 code for injury was changed or added, but only 13% (127) had some change made to their injury mortality diagnosis matrix classification. Among the cases with coding errors, the mean ICD-based injury severity score changed slightly (difference 0.016; 95% CI 0.007 to 0.032). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.892 for predicting hospital mortality and remained essentially unchanged after the correction of codes (95% CI for difference -0.022 to 0.013)., Conclusion: Errors in ICD-10-coded injuries in hospital discharge data were common, but the consequences for injury categorisation were moderate and the consequences for injury severity estimates were in most cases minor. The error rate for detailed levels of cause-of-injury codes was high and may be detrimental for identifying specific targets for prevention.

Context: Blood levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] is the generally accepted indicator of vitamin D status, but no universal reference level has been reached., Objective: The objective of the study was to determine the threshold at which low plasma 25(OH)D levels are associated with fractures in elderly men and clarify the importance of low levels on total fracture burden., Design and Participants: In the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, a population-based cohort (mean age, 71 yr, n = 1194), we examined the relationship between 25(OH)D and risk for fracture. Plasma 25(OH)D levels were measured with high-pressure liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry., Setting: The study was conducted in the municipality of Uppsala in Sweden, a country with a high fracture incidence., Main Outcome Measure: Time to fracture was measured., Results: During follow-up (median 11 yr), 309 of the participants (26%) sustained a fracture. 25(OH)D levels below 40 nmol/liter, which corresponded to the fifth percentile of 25(OH)D, were associated with a modestly increased risk for fracture, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio 1.65 (95% confidence interval 1.09-2.49). No risk difference was detected above this level. Approximately 3% of the fractures were attributable to low 25(OH)D levels in this population., Conclusions: Vitamin D insufficiency is not a major cause of fractures in community-dwelling elderly men in Sweden. Despite the fact that cutaneous synthesis of previtamin D during the winter season is undetectable at this northern latitude of 60 degrees, only one in 20 had 25(OH)D levels below 40 nmol/liter, the threshold at which the risk for fracture started to increase. Genetic adaptations to limited UV light may be an explanation for our findings.

Background: Knee injuries end many careers among female soccer players. The number of injuries can be anticipated to increase because of the increasing popularity of the sport worldwide and the higher incidence of knee injuries among young females compared with males., Methods: In a community-based intervention trial performed from February 1 through October 31, 2007, we sought to reduce the number of knee injuries among female soccer players aged 13 to 19 years (N = 1506), representing 97 teams from 2 Swedish counties. A physical exercise program designed exclusively for female soccer players was combined with education of athletes, parents, and coaches to increase awareness of injury risk. The training program aimed to improve motor skills, body control, and muscle activation. New acute knee injuries, diagnosed by the physician, were the main outcome measure., Results: Three knee injuries occurred in the intervention group and 13 occurred in the control group, corresponding to incidence rates of 0.04 and 0.20, respectively, per 1000 player hours. The preventive program was associated with a 77% reduction in knee injury incidence (crude rate ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.83). The noncontact knee injury incidence rate was 90% lower in the intervention group (crude rate ratio, 0.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.70). Adjustment for potential confounders strengthened the estimates. Forty-five of the 48 intervention teams (94%) reported a high adherence of at least 75%., Conclusion: The incidence of knee injuries among young female soccer players can be reduced by implementation of a multifaceted, soccer-specific physical exercise program including education of individual players.

Context: Recent studies indicate common etiologies for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and osteoporotic fractures., Objectives: To examine the relation between CVD and risk of hip fracture in twins and evaluate the relative importance of genetics and lifestyle factors in this association., Design, Setting, and Participants: A cohort of all 31,936 Swedish twins born from 1914-1944 was followed up from the age of 50 years. The National Patient Registry identified twins with CVDs and fractures from 1964 through 2005. Time-dependent exposures using Cox proportional hazard regression models were evaluated., Main Outcome Measure: Time to hip fracture after diagnosis of CVD., Results: The crude absolute rate of hip fractures was 12.6 per 1000 person-years after a diagnosis of heart failure, 12.6 per 1000 person-years after a stroke, 6.6 per 1000 person-years after a diagnosis of peripheral atherosclerosis, and 5.2 per 1000 person-years after a diagnosis of ischemic heart disease compared with 1.2 per 1000 person-years for those without a CVD diagnosis. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of hip fracture after a diagnosis of heart failure was 4.40 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.43-5.63); after a stroke, the HR was 5.09 (95% CI, 4.18-6.20); after a diagnosis of peripheral atherosclerosis, the HR was 3.20 (95% CI, 2.28-4.50); and after an ischemic heart disease event, the HR was 2.32 (95% CI, 1.91-2.84). Identical twins without heart failure and stroke also had, after their co-twins had been exposed to these respective diseases, an increased rate of hip fracture. These sibling twins pseudoexposed for heart failure had a multivariable-adjusted HR of 3.74 (95% CI, 1.97-7.10) for hip fracture, whereas pseudoexposure for stroke had an HR of 2.29 (95% CI, 1.20-4.35)., Conclusions: A diagnosis of CVD was significantly associated with risk of subsequent hip fracture. Increased risks in co-twins without an index diagnosis suggest genetic factors in the association between CVD and osteoporotic fractures.

Objective: To examine how change in level of physical activity after middle age influences mortality and to compare it with the effect of smoking cessation., Design: Population based cohort study with follow-up over 35 years., Setting: Municipality of Uppsala, Sweden., Participants: 2205 men aged 50 in 1970-3 who were reexamined at ages 60, 70, 77, and 82 years., Main Outcome Measure: Total (all cause) mortality., Results: The absolute mortality rate was 27.1, 23.6, and 18.4 per 1000 person years in the groups with low, medium, and high physical activity, respectively. The relative rate reduction attributable to high physical activity was 32% for low and 22% for medium physical activity. Men who increased their physical activity level between the ages of 50 and 60 continued to have a higher mortality rate during the first five years of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 2.64, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 5.27, compared with unchanged high physical activity). After 10 years of follow-up their increased physical activity was associated with reduced mortality to the level of men with unchanged high physical activity (1.10, 0.87 to 1.38). The reduction in mortality associated with increased physical activity (0.51, 0.26 to 0.97, compared with unchanged low physical activity) was similar to that associated with smoking cessation (0.64, 0.53 to 0.78, compared with continued smoking)., Conclusions: Increased physical activity in middle age is eventually followed by a reduction in mortality to the same level as seen among men with constantly high physical activity. This reduction is comparable with that associated with smoking cessation.

Objectives: Missed injury diagnoses may cause potentially preventable deaths. To estimate the effect of clinically undiagnosed injuries on injury-specific survival estimates and the accuracy of an injury severity score. To also estimate the potentially preventable mortality attributable to these injuries., Design, Setting, and Patients: In a nation-wide, population-based study, data were collected from all hospital admissions for injuries in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. We studied 8627 deaths in hospital among 598,137 incident hospital admissions., Measurements and Main Results: New specific-injury categories were added in 7.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8-8.0) of all deaths with an autopsy rate of 24.2%. It was estimated that this proportion would have increased to 25.1% (95% CI 23.0-27.2), if all deaths had been autopsied. The most pronounced effect of clinically undiagnosed injuries was found for internal organ injury in the abdomen or pelvis, where they reduced the estimated survival from 0.83 to 0.69 (95% CI for the difference: 0.09-0.20). Autopsy diagnoses also revealed substantial bias of survival estimates for vascular injuries in the thorax and crush injuries to the head. The performance of the International Classification of Diseases Injury Severity Score improved when autopsy diagnoses were added to hospital discharge diagnoses. The maximum proportion of injury deaths attributable to missed injuries was estimated to be 6.5%., Conclusions: Maintaining a high autopsy rate and merging accurate hospital discharge data and autopsy data are effective ways to improve the accuracy of survival estimates and mortality prediction models, and to estimate mortality attributable to diagnostic failures.

The principal causal components of an osteoporotic fracture are a fall and weakened bone strength. While bone quality measures have been frequently studied, the ability of simple measures of impaired balance to predict fracture risk has received less attention. Computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted between 1998 and 2000 among 24,598 Swedish twins aged 55 years or older. Impaired balance at the time of interview was reported by 2,890 (12%) of the twins. Twin pairs who were discordant with regard to impaired balance were selected for analysis and followed for fractures through 2005. In a pairwise analysis, the odds ratio for hip fracture was 3.13 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.62, 6.05) among twins with impaired balance as compared with their co-twins with normal balance. When previously recognized clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were considered in the model, the odds ratio for hip fracture with impaired balance was 3.88 (95% CI: 1.40, 10.72). Approximately 40% of all hip fractures were attributable to impaired balance. The odds ratios for any fracture and any osteoporotic fracture for twins with impaired balance were 2.00 (95% CI: 1.29, 3.11) and 2.39 (95% CI: 1.49, 3.82), respectively. These results imply that self-reported impaired balance is a novel and readily assessed risk factor for future fractures in the elderly.

Background: Hospital discharge data on injuries constitute a potentially powerful data source for epidemiologic studies. However, reliable identification of incident injury admissions is necessary. The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model for identifying incident hospital admissions, based on variables derived from a hospital discharge register., Methods: There were 743,022 hospital admissions for injury in Sweden 1998-2004. Of these, 23,920 were in the county of Uppsala and 24% of these people had previous injury admissions. To determine if these admissions were new injuries or readmissions for earlier injuries, we reviewed 817 randomly selected hospital records. A prediction model for incident injury admissions was developed on the basis of patient age, type of admission (urgent or elective), time interval from the previous injury admission, main diagnosis, and department type., Results: The final prediction model showed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.969). This model was applied to the validation dataset using the optimal cut-off level, and the resulting sensitivity and specificity were adjusted according to the proportion with a previous injury admission in each injury category. The injury with the highest proportion of possible readmissions was hip contusion (35%). Nevertheless, using the prediction model, incident hip contusions were identified with a sensitivity of 94% (95% confidence interval = 93%-95%) and a specificity of 95% (94%-97%). The accuracy was higher for all other injury categories., Conclusions: Incident injury admissions can be accurately separated from readmissions using a prediction model based on information derived from hospital discharge data.