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• New information on locust hatching timing and location is produced. • The information can be used to mitigate severe impact of locust plagues in eastern Africa. • A fuzzy logic modeling framework is developed suitable for ecological modeling in data scarce regions. Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) plagues threaten agricultural production, food security and the environment across Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia. Control methods targeting adult desert locusts present significant challenges and financial costs. Recognizing this, we developed a ground-breaking fuzzy set Mamdani type inference model that provides an innovative solution for early warning alerts. The model aids in predicting the juvenile stages of locust development, thereby preventing wide-scale locust swarming and mitigating its extensive damages and socioeconomic costs. The novelty of our approach lies in our unique application of environmental variables relevant for locust breeding to estimate the timing and location of desert locust hatching. Additionally, we improved the algorithmic handling of these variables, with localized desert locust bands data used as a proxy for hatching timing with a temporal offset of 35 days. The model's boundary conditions were determined using a training area in Sudan, where comprehensive ground data was available. This rule set was subsequently applied to Turkana County in Kenya, a data-scarce region, demonstrating the model's applicability and success in different contexts. The model's accuracy, assessed by data from the Sudan training site, demonstrated a remarkable score of 82% for true predictions. Furthermore, the model correctly identified the months of highest hatching probabilities in Turkana during 2020, demonstrating its real-world effectiveness and practical value. A correlation analysis affirmed that hatching was associated with increases in chlorophyll levels and precipitation accumulations. Our study marks a significant advancement in predicting the timing of hatching using fuzzy logic in data-scarce environments. By operationalizing more targeted early responses to desert locust infestations, our model facilitates more effective locust control. This study stands as an important contribution to locust management strategies, with substantial implications for agricultural production and food security in affected regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Retinoblastoma (RB) is a rare and unique cancer that affects the eyes of very young children. There are few reports on RB in Sudan., Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective study of data from patients diagnosed with retinoblastoma between January 1999 and December 2009 at the National Cancer Institute in Gezira (NCI-Gezira)., Results: Of the 519 cases of childhood cancer treated at NCI-Gezira during the study period, 25 (4.8%) were retinoblastoma. Of these 25 patients with retinoblastoma, there were 13 boys and 19 cases were unilateral. The median age at diagnosis was 36 months (range, 8-60 months). The disease was localized in 9 patients, regional in 5 patients, and metastatic in 11 patients. The most frequent symptoms were enlarged eye (n = 14) and leukocoria (n = 8). Nine patients (36%) have been lost to follow-up; 9 were alive at last follow-up (7 in remission, 2 progressed); and 7 have died (5 from disease and 2 from unrelated causes). Twenty-two eyes were enucleated in 16 patients (6 bilateral and 10 unilateral). Pathologic examination of the enucleated eyes could only be completed in 11 patients. Diagnostic imaging in the form of computerized tomography scans or ultrasonography of the brain and orbit was done for 10 patients (40%)., Conclusions: Although these findings are not surprising, and similar to reports from other developing countries, we hope our work will provide a foundation for strategies to improve outcome for retinoblastoma in our center such as proper training, public awareness, team approach, and twinning.

One-hundred nineteen patients (cases) at least 13 years of age with acute hepatitis were studied to determine the viral etiology of acute hepatitis in Omdurman, Sudan. Ninety-eight control subjects (controls) were also evaluated to determine the risk factors associated with the development of clinical disease. Acute hepatitis non-A, non-B was diagnosed in 88 cases (73.9%), hepatitis B in 15 cases (12.6%), delta infection in 15 (12.6%), and hepatitis A in just one patient (0.8%). A higher percentage of hepatitis B cases had received a parenteral injection for medical therapy during the previous 6 months than control subjects (26.7% vs 4.1%, p less than 0.05). The data in this study indicate that hepatitis non-a, non-B may be the major cause of acute hepatitis in adults in this area of Sudan. The suggested association of parenteral therapy with the transmission of hepatitis B could have important implications for the spread of other parenterally-transmitted diseases.