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Background: Previous studies suggest that untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with a reduced incidence of pregnancy, but studies of the effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on pregnancy incidence have been inconsistent.Methods: Routine data from health services in the Western Cape province of South Africa were linked to identify pregnancies during 2007-2017 and maternal HIV records. The time from the first (index) pregnancy outcome date to the next pregnancy was modeled using Cox proportional hazards models.Results: During 2007-2017, 1 042 647 pregnancies were recorded. In all age groups, pregnancy incidence rates were highest in women who had started ART, lower in HIV-negative women, and lowest in ART-naive HIV-positive women. In multivariable analysis, after controlling for the most recent CD4+ T-cell count, pregnancy incidence rates in HIV-positive women receiving ART were higher than those in untreated HIV-positive women (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-1.67) and those in HIV-negative women.Conclusion: Among women who have recently been pregnant, receipt of ART is associated with high rates of second pregnancy. Better integration of family planning into HIV care services is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: In South Africa, an estimated 4.6 million people were accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 2018. As universal Test and Treat is implemented, these numbers will continue to increase. Given the need for lifelong care for millions of individuals, differentiated service delivery models for ART services such as adherence clubs (ACs) for stable patients are required. In this study, we describe long‐term virologic outcomes of patients who have ever entered ACs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town. Methods: We included adult patients enrolled in ACs in Khayelitsha between January 2011 and December 2016 with a recorded viral load (VL) before enrolment. Risk factors for an elevated VL (VL >1000 copies/mL) and confirmed virologic failure (two consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL one year apart) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. VL completeness over time was assessed. Results: Overall, 8058 patients were included in the analysis, contributing 16,047 person‐years of follow‐up from AC entry (median follow‐up time 1.7 years, interquartile range [IQR]:0.9 to 2.9). At AC entry, 74% were female, 46% were aged between 35 and 44 years, and the median duration on ART was 4.8 years (IQR: 3.0 to 7.2). Among patients virologically suppressed at AC entry (n = 8058), 7136 (89%) had a subsequent VL test, of which 441 (6%) experienced an elevated VL (median time from AC entry 363 days, IQR: 170 to 728). Older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46 to 0.88), more recent year of AC entry (aHR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.84) and higher CD4 count (aHR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) were protective against experiencing an elevated VL. Among patients with an elevated VL, 52% (150/291) with a repeat VL test subsequently experienced confirmed virologic failure in a median time of 112 days (IQR: 56 to 168). Frequency of VL testing was constant over time (82 to 85%), with over 90% of patients remaining virologically suppressed. Conclusions: This study demonstrates low prevalence of elevated VLs and confirmed virologic failure among patients who entered ACs. Although ACs were expanded rapidly, most patients were well monitored and remained stable, supporting the continued rollout of this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV and TB programs have rapidly scaled-up over the past decade in Sub-Saharan Africa and uninterrupted supplies of those medicines are critical to their success. However, estimates of stock-outs are largely unknown. This survey aimed to estimate the extent of stock-outs of antiretroviral and TB medicines in public health facilities across South Africa, which has the world’s largest antiretroviral treatment (ART) program and a rising multidrug-resistant TB epidemic. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional telephonic survey (October—December 2015) of public health facilities. Facilities were asked about the prevalence of stock-outs on the day of the survey and in the preceding three months, their duration and impact. Results: Nationwide, of 3547 eligible health facilities, 79% (2804) could be reached telephonically. 88% (2463) participated and 4% (93) were excluded as they did not provide ART or TB treatment. Of the 2370 included facilities, 20% (485) reported a stock-out of at least 1 ARV and/or TB-related medicine on the day of contact and 36% (864) during the three months prior to contact, ranging from 74% (163/220) of health facilities in Mpumalanga to 12% (32/261) in the Western Cape province. These 864 facilities reported 1475 individual stock-outs, with one to fourteen different medicines out of stock per facility. Information on impact was provided in 98% (1449/1475) of stock-outs: 25% (366) resulted in a high impact outcome, where patients left the facility without medicine or were provided with an incomplete regimen. Of the 757 stock-outs that were resolved 70% (527) lasted longer than one month. Interpretation: There was a high prevalence of stock-outs nationwide. Large interprovincial differences in stock-out occurrence, duration, and impact suggest differences in provincial ability to prevent, mitigate and cope within the same framework. End-user monitoring of the supply chain by patients and civil society has the potential to increase transparency and complement public sector monitoring systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up. Methods and Findings: Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/mL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9-6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6-12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9-11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0-19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes. Conclusions: Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on a study which constructed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. The researchers analyzed data for adult patients who began ART in four scale-up programs in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. The prognostic models include one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age and sex, and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anemia. Findings of the study are presented in detail.

Background: The majority of antiretroviral treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling up antiretroviral treatment using a fixed dose first-line antiretroviral regimen containing stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine. One of the primary concerns with the use of this regimen is nevirapine-associated hepatotoxicity. Methodology/Principal Findings: Study participants were 1809 HIV-infected, antiretroviral naïve adults initiating nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy between November 2002 and December 2006. The primary outcome was early hepatotoxicity. Secondary outcomes were associations with hepatotoxicity and mortality at six months. The cumulative proportion of early hepatotoxicity ranged from 1.0-2.0% giving an incidence-rate at 102 days of 3.6-7.6 per 100 personyears. Median time to hepatotoxicity was 32 (IQR 28-58) days. At 12 weeks, only 8% of patients had alanine aminotransferase monitoring at all the time-points recommended by national guidelines. No association was found between age, gender, baseline CD4 count, concurrent tuberculosis infection, prior participation in a prevention of motherto- child-transmission program, or baseline weight and early hepatotoxicity. There was no association between early hepatotoxicity and mortality. Conclusions: The cumulative proportion of early hepatotoxicity in nevirapine based antiretroviral therapy was low in this resource-constrained setting. Hepatotoxicity was not associated with mortality. Frequent routine monitoring of alanine aminotransferase proved difficult to implement in this public sector primary care programme. Focused monitoring in the first month may be a more cost-effective and pragmatic option in settings with limited resources. Correlation with clinical signs and symptoms may allow future alanine aminotransferase testing to be dictated by clinical criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Knowledge of the experience and outcomes of current paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa can inform new programmes in the region as well as enhance existing ones. This is urgently needed to facilitate the scale-up of treatment, which is needed to address the burden of paediatric HIV cases on the continent. We reviewed the characteristics and outcomes of programmes with clinical paediatric ART studies published prior to 1 January 2008. The outcomes of the studies were comparable to similar ones from developed countries; however, the duration of follow-up was relatively limited in almost all the studies reviewed. One-year survival probability was between 84% and 91%, and considerable improvement in the clinical, immunologic and viral status of the paediatric patients was generally recorded. Loss to follow-up was less than 10% in all but two studies. Adherence to treatment was good and few adverse events were reported. This is despite the fact that many programmes were subject to enormous constraints in terms of health services, and despite widespread use of adult fixed-dose combinations for paediatric patients, including young infants. While the majority of children commencing ART were severely ill, most children were old (median age >5 years for almost all studies) with relatively few infants and young children (age <2 years) receiving treatment. This is in contrast to knowledge of rapid disease progression in the majority of HIV-infected infants and despite the World Health Organization's recent recommendations to commence ART in all HIV-infected infants less than one year old. There is an urgent need to address barriers to ART for infants. Studies of the outcomes of programmes treating infants as well as those with longer-term follow-up are also needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: As adolescents and young people living with HIV (AYLH) age, they face a "transition cascade," a series of steps associated with transitions in their care as they become responsible for their own healthcare. In high‐income countries, this usually includes transfer from predominantly paediatric/adolescent to adult clinics. In sub‐Saharan Africa, paediatric HIV care is mostly provided in decentralized, non‐specialist primary care clinics, where "transition" may not necessarily include transfer of care but entails becoming more autonomous for one's HIV care. Using different age thresholds as proxies for when "transition" to autonomy might occur, we evaluated pre‐ and post‐transition outcomes among AYLH. Methods: We included AYLH aged <16 years at enrolment, receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) within International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA‐SA) sites (2004 to 2017) with no history of transferring care. Using the ages of 16, 18, 20 and 22 years as proxies for "transition to autonomy," we compared the outcomes: no gap in care (≥2 clinic visits) and viral suppression (HIV‐RNA <400 copies/mL) in the 12 months before and after each age threshold. Using log‐binomial regression, we examined factors associated with no gap in care (retention) in the 12 months post‐transition. Results: A total of 5516 AYLH from 16 sites were included at "transition" age 16 (transition‐16y), 3864 at 18 (transition‐18y), 1463 at 20 (transition‐20y) and 440 at 22 years (transition‐22y). At transition‐18y, in the 12 months pre‐ and post‐transition, 83% versus 74% of AYLH had no gap in care (difference 9.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.8 to 10.9)); while 65% versus 62% were virally suppressed (difference 2.7 (−1.0 to 6.5%)). The strongest predictor of being retained post‐transition was having no gap in the preceding year, across all transition age thresholds (transition‐16y: adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.72; 95% CI (1.60 to 1.86); transition‐18y: aRR 1.76 (1.61 to 1.92); transition‐20y: aRR 1.75 (1.53 to 2.01); transition‐22y: aRR 1.47; (1.21 to 1.78)). Conclusions: AYLH with gaps in care need targeted support to prevent non‐retention as they take on greater responsibility for their healthcare. Interventions to increase virologic suppression rates are necessary for all AYLH ageing to adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented which discusses virological failure among patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.