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This paper challenges existing analyses of party cleavages in Sub-Saharan Africa which over-emphasise the centrality of ethnicity. Parties express ideological positions that reflect the socio-economic interests of specific regions, which, especially in Zambia, coincide with particular ethnic groups. We demonstrate this through an examination of party manifestos, policy documents and semi-structured interviews with members of two political parties in Zambia – the Patriotic Front and the United Party for National Development. These parties express clear normative ideas about social welfare, especially the role of the state in providing social assistance to the poorest. These ideological positions reflect the socio-economic interests of the ethnic groups and regions where support for each party is dominant. These are shaped by the ways in which these regions were historically incorporated into the colonial economy. In order to gain a better understanding of African politics, ethnicity must be conceptualised as a socio-cultural construct and situated historically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Taxation is crucial for revenue, political participation, and the demand for accountability in Africa. Most existing theories do not predict tax attitudes in informal economies with weak institutional capacity nor do they demonstrate how service delivery translates to stronger tax regimes. This article examines the fiscal exchange theory— how government's expenditure affects voluntary compliance—across Africa, showing mechanisms through which service delivery affects tax morale. Methods: The study uses a public opinion survey of over 41,000 respondents from 29 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa. The statistical analysis employs an ordered logit model and linear probability model to test the hypotheses. Results: The study finds that service delivery determines tax attitudes. In addition, the study examines aspects of service delivery that are of most concern to citizens and finds that services that cater to individual needs are stronger in inducing tax morale than those that address collective needs. The article also finds that citizens' acknowledgement of receipt of goods is not an indication of inherent incumbent support. Conclusion: This study sought to understand the relationship between different modes of service delivery and the likelihood of having tax morale among African citizens and ultimately sheds light upon citizen–state relationships, effective governance, and voluntary compliance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Election violence is common in many developing countries and has potentially detrimental implications for democratic consolidation. Drawing on political psychology, we argue that citizens' fear of campaign violence undermines support for democracy while increasing support for autocracy. Using individual-level survey data from 21 electoral democracies in Sub-Saharan Africa, we find robust support for our argument. Citizens fearing campaign violence are less likely to support democracy and multi-party competition, more likely to favor a return to autocracy, and less likely to turn out to vote. Our findings have important implications for democratic survival and provide further impetus for reducing electoral violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent literature suggests that African Presidents tend to target co-ethnics with patronage, especially in non-democracies. Coupled with evidence on the role of incentives in driving ethnic identity change, I propose that a change in the ethnic identity of the President should lead to an increase in the proportion of people identifying with the President's ethnic group. I use survey data from fourteen African countries with Presidential transitions to show that ethnic Presidential change leads to an upwards shift in the percentage of respondents identifying with the new ruling ethnic group in non-democracies, and that this shift increases with the level of autocracy. I also show that countries where citizens perceive more ethnic favoritism see higher levels of ethnic switching. Within-survey evidence from Zambia demonstrates that this shift is immediate, and case study evidence from early modern China suggests that this phenomenon is not limited to Sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of religion on political behavior are difficult to study for a number of reasons. One difficulty is that "religion" is not a singular entity and is thus unlikely to have a unidirectional effect on political behavior. Another difficulty is that everyone in a particular place and time might be embedded in the same set of religious practices, such that the counterfactual is difficult to assess. In response to these and other challenges, we suggest opening up the black box of religion in order to examine the influence of its component parts. Specifically, we focus on exposure to sermons. We describe a study about the impact of Christian sermons in sub-Saharan Africa on reactions to inequality. We discuss the approach's advantages and limitations and discuss how to integrate it with the study of other aspects of religion and how the approach might apply to other domains of political behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Will African voters support climate change policies? By 2020, the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund intends to provide tens of billions of dollars per year to African nations to support climate adaptation and mitigation policies. It is widely assumed that African citizens will support implementation of these climate policies. We observe the opposite result. In this article – across two experimental studies – we find evidence that Sub-Saharan African politicians who commit to climate change policies may lose electoral support. Electorally important swing voters with weak party affiliations are least likely to support party statements about climate change. Interviews with standing elected officials from Malawi and South Africa corroborate our experimental findings. The combined results suggest voter preferences may hinder the successful implementation of climate change policy in Sub-Saharan African democracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do campaigns and elections affect evaluations of democracy in transitional settings? Little research has been conducted on this topic in transitional settings, where citizens’ evaluations of regime performance might be especially fluid and where popular dissatisfaction with democratic institutions could inhibit political development. Furthermore, previous studies’ reliance on cross-sectional data has made it difficult to make valid causal inferences in this area. Drawing upon unique data from the 2010–2011 Uganda Campaign Panel Study, the first panel on campaign effects in Africa, we measure changes in individuals’ satisfaction with democracy. We find that individuals who supported a losing presidential candidate are more likely to show decreases in satisfaction over the course of the campaign than those who supported the winner. Importantly, we find that previous political participation does not necessarily result in increases in democratic satisfaction: rather, it is associated with decreased satisfaction for losers. Finally, there is no evidence that declines in satisfaction with democracy are associated with decreased support for democracy as a regime. This study furthers understanding of political development by identifying factors that affect how citizens evaluate their political regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]