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Introduction: Basing decision-making processes on data containing errors and inaccuracies is unavoidable in many situations. The COVID-19 pandemic related data is a clear example, where the information provided by official sources was often unreliable due to data collection mechanisms and the amount of asymptomatic cases. Objectives: To estimate the amount of misreported data in a time series and reconstructing the most probable evolution of the process and provides a discussion on the more appropriate statistical methods able to yield reliable forecasts in this context. Methods: The usage of a model based on autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic time series is proposed, estimating the parameters by Bayesian synthetic likelihood. Results: Only around 51% of the cases of COVID-19 in the period from February 23rd, 2020 to February 27th, 2022 were observed in Spain, also detecting remarkable differences in the reporting issues between Autonomous communities. Conclusion: The presented method allows generating realistic predictions under different possible scenarios, and therefore it represents a valuable tool for policy makers in order to improve the evaluation of the evolution of a situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: MoMo monitors and communicates daily mortality in Spain, however, the delay in the notification of deaths biases downwards the estimates from MoMo. Objective: this study evaluates five methods that correct for the effect of notification delays on daily excess mortality estimates during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: 1) estimates for the excess mortality in Spain were published daily and gathered within 01/09/2020-25/12/2020. 2) adjusted excess mortality estimates were computed by applying five different models that correct for the delay in the notification of deaths. 3) these corrections were evaluated using the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE). Results: the delay in the notification implied that the cumulative excess mortality estimates from MoMo during the second wave were, on average, 87% of their definitive values. The quadratic and cubic regression models raised them to 98%, on average. Using quadratic regressions reduced the RMSE and the MAE of MoMo's estimates in 6 and 13%, respectively. Conclusion: to improve the daily estimates from MoMo for the cumulative excess of deaths, it is recommended to use quadratic regressions to correct the effect of the notification delay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Archivos de Criminología, Criminalística y Seguridad Privada is the property of Sociedad Mexicana de Criminologia Capitulo Nuevo Leon, A.C. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction: contract records of gases and similar elements used by the Air Force are being signed from 1997. The management of this activity was appointed, from the very beginning, to the Air Force Pharmacy of Madrid (CEFARMA). However, the last divergences between the asigned economic licenses and the actual execution have been noticeable. The lack of mathematical predictive models may account for the disadjustment between the budgeted and the executed. The elaboration of statistic and economeric estimates is retained as the main basis to efficiently forward-looking through contract records of gases properly done, that is, not based on the inertial increment of historical budgets. Aims: mathematical estimates of budgetary prediction in budget allocations of contract records of gases used by the Air Force. Materials and method: gathering of the economic data from invoicing and payments. Billing figures have been deflated taking 2016 as the basis. For the mathematical, graphic and statistical treatment of the data the following computing apps have been used: Microsoft® Excel (2016), Eviews®10, Gretl (2017c) and Statistica v12 (StatSoft inc.). Results: different ARIMA models have been obtained, being ARIMA (3,1,0) the best in annual and quarterly result validation. Conclusions: ARIMA models allow to predict the economic allocations in the contract records of fases in the Air Force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides empirical evidence about the relationship between wages and their determinants in the Spanish economy from a macroeconomic perspective, as well as about the adjustment speed back to long run equilibrium, estimating an error correction mechanism by non-linear methods. The results reveal that the unemployment rate and the bargaining variables have no effect on the evolution of wages. The variable that explains the evolution of wages in the long term is prices, with wages showing slightly inflationary behavior . In the short term, wages are explained by their past values, reflecting a nominal inertia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent evolution of the foods prices has been evaluated in several studies considering: the commercial margins analysis and the prices temporal evolution although more of them have been developed using the consumer optics. In this paper, the temporal evolution of the foods prices in Spain has been analysed in the period 2000-2009 considering the farmer optics. Concretely, information in relation with the prices received by the farmers, the prices paid by them and the consumer price index (CPI) has been used. Then, using a time series analysis, the long run relationships between series have been analysed. The results show a long run balance between the prices received and paid by the farmer and between the CPI and the received prices. The main conclusions show that, in spite of the existing imbalances in the short term, in the long term the received and paid prices tend to a balance situation. An important element in the evolution of the CPI is the prices received by the products in the primary sector. Nevertheless, the inputs price fixation in the primary sector in the long term does not show a significant relationship with the CPI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the degree of integration of Spanish agricultural markets at the threshold between the 19th and 20th centuries through an analysis of regional wheat prices between 1891 and 1905. It asserts that the degree of market integration can be viewed as an indicator of economic development. It uses a co-integration method as well as an alternative approach relying on spectral analysis to determine the existence of non-synchronized cycles. It discusses economic conditions, including falling foreign wheat prices which led to increased imports of foreign wheat in Spain, during the period studied and the effect of these conditions on the Spanish market. It mentions the divergent interpretations among historians of the effect of this period on the Spanish economy.

Copyright of Papers: Revista de Sociologia is the property of Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Saharan dust meets the Canary Islands at the beginning of its westward path across the North Atlantic, exceeding the European daily levels for PM10; for this reason, their two provincial capital cities, constitute optimal sites where to evaluate the health effects of this natural event., Objectives: To assess the short-term association between Saharan Dust Days (SDDs) and respiratory morbidity in the two capital cities., Methods: We carried out a time-series analysis with daily emergency hospital admissions due to all respiratory system diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma between 2001 and 2005, assessing the independent effect of SDDs, defined according to the application of the methodology accepted by the European Environmental Office. We also examined accumulated effect, and some other specific SDDs' features., Results: We found a short-term association between SDDs and the increase in admission risk for the three outcomes during concurrent SDDs, compared to non-SDDs, that spread from 0 to 5th day: 22.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4, 36.0) for all respiratory diseases and 29.9% (95%CI: 6.6, 58.4) for COPD in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and 33.4% (95%CI: -2.1,82.0) for asthma in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. We obtained a robust association when Saharan dust transported at low altitude, when SDDs belonged to long episodes (≥5days), from the fifth SDD onwards and those SDDs with medium (50

Objective: To analyse whether there is a short-term association between road traffic noise in the city of Madrid and Parkinson's disease (PD)-related demand for healthcare., Methods: Time-series analysis (2008-2009) using variables of analysis linked to emergency and daily PD-related demand for healthcare (ICD-10: G20-G21), namely, PD-hospital admissions (HAs), PD-outpatient visits (OVs) and PD-emergency medical calls in Madrid. The noise pollution measurements used were Leqd, equivalent sound level for the daytime hours (from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.), and Leqn, equivalent sound level for night time hours (from 10 p.m. to 8 a.m.) in dB(A). We controlled for temperature, pollution, trends and seasons, and used the Poisson regression model to calculate relative risk (RR)., Results: The association between Leqd and HAs was found to be linear. Leqd and Leqn at lag 0.1 and temperature at lags 1 and 5 were the only environmental variables associated with increased PD-related healthcare demand. The RR (lag 0) for Leqd and HA was 1.07 (1.04-1.09), the RR (lag 0) for Leqd and OV was 1.28 (1.12-1.45), and the RR (lags 0.1) for Leqn and emergency medical calls was 1.46 (1.06-2.01)., Conclusion: The above results indicate that road traffic noise is a risk factor for PD exacerbation. Measures to reduce noise-exposure levels could result in a lower PD-related healthcare demand., (Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.)