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Background: In 1918 an unknown infectious agent spread around the world infecting over one-third of the general population and killing almost 50 million people. Many countries were at war, the First World War. Since Spain was a neutral country and Spanish press could report about the infection without censorship, this condition is commonly remembered as "Spanish influenza". This review examines several aspects during the 1918 influenza pandemic to bring out evidences which might be useful to imagine the possible magnitude of the present coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)., Methods: In the first part of this review we will examine the origin of the SARS-Coronavirus-2 and 1918 Spanish Influenza Virus and the role played by host and environment in its diffusion. We will also include in our analysis an evaluation of different approaches utilized to restrain the spread of pandemic and to treat infected patients. In the second part, we will try to imagine the magnitude of the present COVID-19 pandemic and the possible measures able to restrain in the present environment its spread., Results: Several factors characterize the outcome in a viral pandemic infection. They include the complete knowledge of the virus, the complete knowledge of the host and of the environment where the host lives and the pandemic develops., Conclusion: By comparing the situation seen in 1918 with the current one, we are now in a more favourable position. The experience of the past teaches us that their success is linked to a rapid, constant and lasting application. Then, rather than coercion, awareness of the need to observe such prevention measures works better.

Background: The 1918 influenza epidemic was an event of great social and health resonance, which caused high morbidity and mortality in the population. The rapidity in the development of symptoms, the extension to very large groups of the population and the lack of knowledge of the causative agent, were the factors that, added together, made the flu a major public health problem. The objective of this study was to review, through the Spanish written press, of the public health measures adopted as a consequence of the influenza epidemic of 1918., Methods: A selection of the Spanish press was carried out through the Digital Newspaper Library of the National Library (HDBN) of Spain, from January 1, 1918 to December 31, 1920; and the concept "flu" was searched, selecting those units of analysis that made reference to the public health measures adopted during the flu epidemic of 1918., Results: The newspapers analyzed reported the public health measures adopted by the health authorities of the different countries in order to reduce the spread of the epidemic, such as the closure of schools and the postponement of the opening of the academic year, disinfection of premises, quarantines, isolation, suspension, popular celebrations, disinfection and hygiene, border control, suspension of communications by train, as well as the creation and use of different vaccines and serums to immunize the population., Conclusions: The poor management of the epidemic could be one of the causes of the great impact of influenza in the first half of October 1918, as the decisions of the administration to promote public health measures were adopted with some delay.

The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic had a significantly different impact on mortality rates in Spanish and Portuguese provinces and cities. In this study, several small villages have been identified which were not affected at all by the Spanish influenza pandemic. These all shared a number of features in common: their villages were very small, comprising only a few hundred inhabitants; they were located in mountainous regions, with very poor transport infrastructure; and they were self-sufficient and capable of fulfilling their basic alimentary needs. Their inhabitants were conscious of the problem and acted together, effectively isolating themselves from surrounding villages. Since these villagers managed to avoid direct contact with ill people from other municipalities, the flu was not transmitted and the pandemic did not arise in their villages. In this paper, it is proposed that the human habitability spaces that meet these characteristics, I call them "Safe Villages" or "Shelter Village". Knowledge of the circumstances in which the 1918-1919 flu pandemic developed and of the means employed to resist it can help us to take relevant measures when faced with future pandemics., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement The author declares no conflict of interest., (©2020 Pacini Editore SRL, Pisa, Italy.)

Although much progress has been made to uncover age-specific mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in populations around the world, more studies in different populations are needed to make sense of the heterogeneous death impact of this pandemic. We assessed the absolute and relative magnitudes of 3 pandemic waves in the city of Madrid, Spain, between 1918 and 1920, on the basis of age-specific all-cause and respiratory excess death rates. Excess death rates were estimated using a Serfling model with a parametric bootstrapping approach to calibrate baseline death levels with quantified uncertainty. Excess all-cause and pneumonia and influenza mortality rates were estimated for different pandemic waves and age groups. The youngest and oldest persons experienced the highest excess mortality rates, and young adults faced the highest standardized mortality risk. Waves differed in strength; the peak standardized mortality risk occurred during the herald wave in spring 1918, but the highest excess rates occurred during the fall and winter of 1918/1919. Little evidence was found to support a "W"-shaped, age-specific excess mortality curve. Acquired immunity may have tempered a protracted fall wave, but recrudescent waves following the initial 2 outbreaks heightened the total pandemic mortality impact.