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This article focuses on identifying the variable which has the highest predictive power in predicting electoral behaviour. To do this, we apply a tree-based machine learning technique to data from Malaysia's 14th General Election. We find that constituencies' urbanization level has the most significant predictive power in determining vote share. Ethnicity, a long-touted variable of significance, plays a secondary role. Moreover, these predictors' marginal effects on the vote share are highly complex, non-linear and difficult to pick up by conventional regression [End Page 461] methods. Other explanatory factors do not exhibit significant predictive qualities of electoral behaviour, although the extant literature has shown them to have important causal relationships. As our analysis reflects the significant predictive power of urbanization in predicting voting behaviour, we caution against the haste to dismiss its relevance in the Malaysian context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discusses the significance of social media in the politics and government in Southeast Asia. He provides an overview of the relationship between social media and political competition. He talks about strategies of political outreach using social media and its influence in the political landscape.

The article offers information on the party systems in Southeast Asia and the working of two parties including clientlist parties and cleavage-based parties. It mentions that clientelist parties have more potential to stop democracy in comparison to cleavage-based parties because cleavage-based party systems are not democratic and accountability is eroded, cynicism is higher and bureaucracy is more politicized. It also discusses several topics including democratization, bureaucracy and rent-seeking behavior.