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The article presents the political outlook for Southeast Asia for 2008-2009. In Brunei, the governmental system will remain to be highly centralized despite the fact that the district and village level councils have been provided some semblance of participatory parties. In Indonesia, it is predicted that there may be another Cabinet reshuffle in 2008 which relates to potential political splits between parties that supported the Yudhoyono-Kalla presidential ticket in 2004. In the Philippines, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is anticipated to encounter new street protests asking for her resignation and attempts to impeach her.

Despite the position of the United States as de facto global hegemon, China is a rising power in the world. As Chinese power grows, the projection of Chinese influence will be felt most acutely in Southeast Asia. Whether to accommodate, contain or resist China will depend on future developments that none can foresee, including Chinese ambitions, the policies of other international players (the U.S., Japan), and the cohesion or fragility of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN). This paper argues that in deciding how best to deal with China, two factors that will influence the countries of Southeast Asia are their own long histories of bilateral relations with China and their own differing conceptions of how foreign relations should be conducted. This is to argue that history and culture are central to any understanding of the likely future shape of China-Southeast Asia relations. Only by taking history and culture into account will analysts be in a position to predict how the mainland and maritime states of Southeast Asia are likely to respond to a more powerful, confident and assertive China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]