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Objective: To develop a method for estimating the future numbers of prostate cancer survivors requiring different levels of care. Design, setting and participants: Analysis of population-based cancer registry data for prostate cancer cases (aged 18–84 years) diagnosed in 1996–2007, and a linked dataset with hospital admission data for men with prostate cancer diagnosed during 2005–2007 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Methods: Cancer registry data (1996–2007) were used to project complete prostate cancer prevalence in NSW, Australia for 2008–2017, and treatment information from hospital records (2005–2007) was used to estimate the inpatient care needs during the first year after diagnosis. The projected complete prevalence was divided into care needs-based groups. We first divided the cohort into two groups based on patient’s age (<75 and 75–84 years). The younger cohort was further divided into initial care and monitoring phases. Cause of death data were used as a proxy for patients requiring last year of life prostate cancer care. Finally, episode data were used to estimate the future number of cases with metastatic progression. Results: Of the estimated total of 60,910 men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in 2017, the largest groups will be older patients (52.0%) and younger men who require monitoring (42.5%). If current treatment patterns continue, in the first year post-diagnosis 41% (1380) of patients (<75 years) will have a radical prostatectomy, and 52.6% (1752) will be likely to have either active surveillance, external beam radiotherapy or androgen deprivation therapy. About 3% will require care for subsequent metastases, and 1288 men with prostate cancer are likely to die from the disease in 2017. Conclusions: This method extends the application of routinely collected population-based data, and can contribute much to the knowledge of the number of men with prostate cancer and their health care requirements. This could be of significant use in planning future cancer care services and facilities in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Information on the current and future numbers of Australian men living with prostate cancer is limited. We describe a method for estimating complete prevalence of prostate cancer to provide a measure of the burden of prostate cancer in Australia. Methods: Prostate cancer data from the New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry were used with PIAMOD (Prevalence and Incidence Analysis MODel) software to estimate future prostate cancer prevalence in NSW. We first fitted parametric incidence and survival models then used the modelled incidence and survival estimates to calculate complete prevalence. The estimated and projected prevalence incorporate past observed trends and take into account different assumptions about future survival trends. These models were validated against observed prevalence from the counting method. Results: Based on data for 1996-2007, the number of men living with prostate cancer in NSW was estimated to rise by 59% to 73%, from 38,322 in 2007 to 60,910-66,160 in 2017. The increasing incidence rates and the ageing population were the major contributors to this estimated increase. Validation suggested that these projections were reasonable, as the estimated prevalence in 1996-2007 was in good agreement with the corresponding prevalence calculated using the direct counting method, and the incidence models were supported by the recent data on prostate-specific antigen testing. Conclusions: As the number of men living with prostate cancer is expected to increase dramatically in the next decade in Australia, representing a significant challenge to the health system, careful planning and development of a healthcare system able to respond to this increased demand is required. These projections are useful for addressing the challenge in meeting the cancer care needs of men with prostate cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]