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We conducted a comparative study of the COVID-19 epidemic in three different settings: mainland China, the Guangdong province of China and South Korea, by formulating two disease transmission dynamics models which incorporate epidemic characteristics and setting-specific interventions, and fitting the models to multi-source data to identify initial and effective reproduction numbers and evaluate effectiveness of interventions. We estimated the initial basic reproduction number for South Korea, the Guangdong province and mainland China as 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): (2.5, 2.7)), 3.0 (95%CI: (2.6, 3.3)) and 3.8 (95%CI: (3.5,4.2)), respectively, given a serial interval with mean of 5 days with standard deviation of 3 days. We found that the effective reproduction number for the Guangdong province and mainland China has fallen below the threshold 1 since February 8th and 18th respectively, while the effective reproduction number for South Korea remains high until March 2nd Moreover our model-based analysis shows that the COVID-19 epidemics in South Korean is almost under control with the cumulative confirmed cases tending to be stable as of April 14th. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that a coherent and integrated approach with stringent public health interventions is the key to the success of containing the epidemic in China and especially its provinces outside its epicenter. In comparison, we find that the extremely high detection rate is the key factor determining the success in controlling the COVID-19 epidemics in South Korea. The experience of outbreak control in mainland China and South Korea should be a guiding reference for the rest of the world. • We conducted a comparative study of the COVID-19 epidemic in three different settings: mainland China, the Guangdong province of China and South Korea. • We estimated the initial basic reproduction number for South Korea, the Guangdong province and mainland China as 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): (2.5, 2.7)), 3.0 (95%CI: (2.6, 3.3)) and 3.8 (95%CI: (3.5,4.2)). • A coherent and integrated approach with stringent public health interventions is the key to the success of containing the epidemic in China and especially its provinces outside its epicenter. • The extremely high detection rate of infected individuals is the key to the success in controlling the epidemics in South Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: South Korea experienced the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in the early period; thus data from this country could provide significant implications for global mitigation strategies. This study reports how COVID-19 has spread in South Korea and examines the effects of rapid widespread diagnostic testing on the spread of the disease in the early epidemic phase.Methods: We collected daily data on the number of confirmed cases, tests and deaths due to COVID-19 from 20 January to 13 April 2020. We estimated the spread pattern with a logistic growth model, calculated the daily reproduction number (Rt) and examined the fatality pattern of COVID-19.Results: From the start date of the epidemic in Korea (18 February 2020), the time to peak and plateau were 15.2 and 25 days, respectively. The initial Rt was 3.9 [95% credible interval (CI) 3.7 to 4.2] and declined to <1 after 2 weeks. The initial epidemic doubling time was 3.8 days (3.4 to 4.2 days). The aggressive testing in the early days of the epidemic was associated with reduction in transmission speed of COVID-19. In addition, as of 13 April, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Korea was 2.1%, suggesting a positive effect of the targeted treatment policy for severe patients and medical resources.Conclusions: Our findings provide important information for establishing and revising action plans based on testing strategies and severe patient care systems, needed to address the unprecedented pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]