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The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia. Plain Language Summary: Global warming changes the frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of extreme events. We analyze computer simulations of river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves under past, present‐day, and potential future climate conditions. Our results show that global warming increases the number of people around the world that are affected by these events each year, both for all event types combined and each type individually. Changes in the chance of being affected by extreme events are unevenly distributed in space. Particularly large increases are simulated for tropical and subtropical regions. Key Points: We quantify the pure effect of climate change on the exposure to extreme climate impact events, for both historical and future time periodsGlobal warming increases the global population exposure to river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwavesThe largest increases in exposure are projected for tropical and subtropical regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice-wheat rotation system (RWS) is the most important food production system in South Asia and contributes approximately 50% of the total food consumed in India. Building climate resilience of RWS in the context of global warming is critical to sustainably feeding the ever-increasing population in India. Prior research has shown a large potential for climate change adaptation in rice and wheat production through cropping calendar adjustment, but the climate resilience of rice-wheat systems remains elusive. The study aims to project coupled changes in the growing seasons of rice and wheat in RWS under global warming, and evaluate climate resilience of RWS productivity in India through crop calendar adjustment. We combined an improved Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model with satellite remote sensing data to investigate the coupling of rice and wheat growing seasons in RWS in India. Then, we shifted crop calendars in RWS to simulate optimal planting dates and potential yield changes of rice and wheat under contrasting global warming scenarios. We show that farmers will face a yield trade-off between monsoon rice and dry-season wheat under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (4 °C warming by the end of the century) in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) due to a tighter coupling of crop growing seasons in RWS. Early planting for both monsoon rice and dry-season wheat is recommended in the current climate, but the strategy does not apply to future climate change scenarios in the IGP. Limiting global warming below 2 °C by the end of the century is likely to improve RWS productivity by 14% in irrigated systems and 21% in rainfed systems, and keep sufficient maneuvering space for resilient planting strategies in the future. Our analysis emphasizes that failure to fulfill the pledges of the Paris Agreement will result in not only higher crop damage but also more challenging climate adaptation planning in RWS in India. [Display omitted] • A tighter growing season coupling between kharif rice and rabi wheat in RWS emerges with global warming in the IGP. • The early planting strategy for kharif rice and rabi wheat in the IGP does not apply to future climate change scenarios. • Farmers in the IGP are likely to face a yield trade-off between rice and wheat in high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. • Yield potential gains by system-level calendar management in RWS are higher under RCP2.6 compared to the RCP8.5 scenario. • Limiting global warming below 2 °C can provide more flexible timing for rice and wheat planting in RWS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]