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The release of fresh water from major impoundments to meet the requirements of estuaries has become a recognized need and methodologies to define appropriate release strategies have become an urgent priority in some parts of the world. A recruitment index for juvenile marine fish is presented, based on information relating to the preferred recruitment periods for 27 species, as well as the extent of dependency of these species on estuaries. The status of the estuary mouth (i.e. open or closed) and the longitudinal salinity differences (i.e. the difference between the salinity at the estuary head and the mouth) in the estuary are obtained from a hydrodynamic model of the estuary. The recruitment index integrates this information to provide an indication of potential recruitment (or recruitment opportunity). This index was applied in a case study of the Great Brak Estuary, South Africa, and a distinct decrease in the recruitment index was associated with a reduction in freshwater inflow. In the estuary modelled, annual run-off could be halved without an appreciable decrease in the fish recruitment index (FRI), but with a potentially sharp decline in fish recruitment thereafter. While the index represented recruitment opportunity rather than actual recruitment, it does at least provide an indication of where ecological risk is likely to increase substantially. Since the index integrates the current understanding with respect to the key processes which regulate recruitment of juvenile marine fish into estuaries, it is suggested that it has the potential to fulfil a vital role in identifying appropriate freshwater release policies for impoundments in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]