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Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective in preventing HIV and has the potential to significantly impact the HIV epidemic. Given limited resources for HIV prevention, identifying PrEP provision strategies that maximize impact is critical. Methods: We used a stochastic individual-based network model to evaluate the direct (infections prevented among PrEP users) and indirect (infections prevented among non-PrEP users as a result of PrEP) benefits of PrEP, the person-years of PrEP required to prevent one HIV infection, and the community-level impact of providing PrEP to populations defined by gender and age in western Kenya and South Africa. We examined sensitivity of results to scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) by comparing two scenarios: maintaining current coverage ("status quo") and rapid scale-up to meet programmatic targets ("fast-track"). Results: The community-level impact of PrEP was greatest among women aged 15–24 due to high incidence, while PrEP use among men aged 15–24 yielded the highest proportion of indirect infections prevented in the community. These indirect infections prevented continue to increase over time (western Kenya: 0.4–5.5 (status quo); 0.4–4.9 (fast-track); South Africa: 0.5–1.8 (status quo); 0.5–3.0 (fast-track)) relative to direct infections prevented among PrEP users. The number of person-years of PrEP needed to prevent one HIV infection was lower (59 western Kenya and 69 in South Africa in the status quo scenario; 201 western Kenya and 87 in South Africa in the fast-track scenario) when PrEP was provided only to women compared with only to men over time horizons of up to 5 years, as the indirect benefits of providing PrEP to men accrue in later years. Conclusions: Providing PrEP to women aged 15–24 prevents the greatest number of HIV infections per person-year of PrEP, but PrEP provision for young men also provides indirect benefits to women and to the community overall. This finding supports existing policies that prioritize PrEP use for young women, while also illuminating the community-level benefits of PrEP availability for men when resources permit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Mathematical models can be powerful policymaking tools. Simple, static models are user-friendly for policymakers. More complex, dynamic models account for time-dependent changes but are complicated to understand and produce. Under which conditions are static models adequate? We compare static and dynamic model predictions of whether behavioural disinhibition could undermine the impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision to female sex workers in South Africa. Methods A static model of HIV risk was developed and adapted into a dynamic model. Both models were used to estimate the possible reduction in condom use, following PrEP introduction, without increasing HIV risk. The results were compared over a 20-year time horizon, in two contexts: at epidemic equilibrium and during an increasing epidemic. Results Over time horizons of up to 5 years, the models are consistent. Over longer timeframes, the static model overstates the tolerated reduction in condom use where initial condom use is reasonably high (⁠|$\ge$| 50%) and/or PrEP effectiveness is low (⁠|$\le$| 45%), especially during an increasing epidemic. Conclusions Static models can provide useful deductions to guide policymaking around the introduction of a new HIV intervention over short–medium time horizons of up to 5 years. Over longer timeframes, static models may not sufficiently emphasise situations of programmatic importance, especially where underlying epidemics are still increasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Designing strategies to introduce new HIV prevention technologies requires balancing equitable access with sustainable distribution, particularly in resource constrained settings with high HIV prevalence. This paper explores how knowledge of preference heterogeneity can guide the equitable targeting of HIV prevention products using differentiated advertising and product placement to balance increased access with sustainability. A discrete choice experiment elicited 1016 women's preferences for distribution of HIV prevention products in South Africa. Qualitative research guided the experimental design which considered distribution outlet, collection method, advertising message, and price. A range of choice models, including random parameters logit, latent class and latent class random parameters logit models, were compared for fit. A latent class model showed the best fit and distinguished two classes of women: Class 1 were significantly more likely to be cohabiting and unemployed, who preferred products advertised for HIV prevention distributed through clinics and were highly price sensitive. Class 2 significantly preferred distribution through pharmacies and advertising around women's empowerment, while price was not a key factor. This analysis suggests that equity in access to new products could be advanced through exploiting preference heterogeneity between groups. The identified groups can be then used to design social marketing differentiated distribution strategies. Distributing free products promoted for HIV prevention could discourage 'leakage' of highly subsidised products to women with some capacity to pay, while priced products marketed for women's empowerment through pharmacies could encourage cost recovery with minimal reductions in coverage among employed women. • Balancing equitable and sustainable access to public health products is challenging. • Social marketing tends to use qualitative methods for targeted product marketing. • Latent class models identify preference heterogeneity for market segmentation. • Choice modelling can optimise delivery of goods with positive externalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: New HIV infections remain higher in women than men in sub-Saharan Africa. Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention measure, currently prioritized for those at highest risk, such as female sex workers (FSWs), for whom it is most cost-effective. However, the greatest number of HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa occurs in women in the general population. As countries consider wider PrEP scale-up, there is a need to weigh the population-level impact, cost, and relative cost-effectiveness to inform priority setting., Methods: We developed mathematical models of HIV risk to women and derived tools to highlight key considerations for PrEP programming. The models were fitted to South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, spanning a range of HIV burden in sub-Saharan Africa. The impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up for adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), women 25 to 34 years old, and women 35 to 49 years old were assessed, accounting for differences in population sizes and the low program retention levels reported in demonstration projects., Results: Preexposure prophylaxis could avert substantially more infections a year among women in general population than among FSW. The greatest number of infections could be averted annually among AGYW in South Africa (24-fold that for FSW). In Zimbabwe, the greatest number of infections could be averted among women 25 to 34 years old (8-fold that for FSW); and in Kenya, similarly between AGYW and women 25 to 34 years old (3-fold that for FSW). However, the unit costs of PrEP delivery for AGYW, women 25 to 34 years old, and women 35 to 49 years old would have to reduce considerably (by 70.8%-91.0% across scenarios) for scale-up to these populations to be as cost-effective as for FSW., Conclusions: Preexposure prophylaxis has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections in HIV-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This will necessitate PrEP being made widely available beyond those at highest individual risk and continued integration into a range of national services and at community level to significantly bring down the costs and improve cost-effectiveness.