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BACKGROUND: With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. OBJECTIVES: We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. METHODS: We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. RESULTS: Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore's dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. CONCLUSIONS: Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue resurged in Singapore during 2013-14, causing an outbreak with unprecedented number of cases in the country. In the present study, we summarise the epidemiological, virological and entomological findings gathered through the dengue surveillance programme and highlight the drivers of the epidemic. We also describe how the surveillance system facilitated the preparedness to moderate epidemic transmission of dengue in the country.Methods: The case surveillance was based on a mandatory notification system that requires all medical practitioners to report clinically-suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases within 24 hours. The circulating Dengue virus (DENV) populations were monitored through an island wide virus surveillance programme aimed at determining the serotypes and genotypes of circulating virus strains. Entomological surveillance included adult Aedes surveillance as well as premise checks for larval breeding.Results: A switch in the dominant serotype from DENV-2 to DENV-1 in March 2013 signalled a potential spike in cases, and the alert was corroborated by an increase in average Aedes house index. The alert triggered preparedness and early response to moderate the impending outbreak. The two-year outbreak led to 22,170 cases in 2013 and 18,338 in 2014, corresponding to an incidence rate of 410.6 and 335.0 per 100,000 population, respectively. DENV-1 was the dominant serotype in 2013 (61.7 %, n = 5,071) and 2014 (79.2 %, n = 5,226), contributed largely by a newly-introduced DENV-1 genotype III strain. The percentage of houses with Ae. aegypti breeding increased significantly (p < 0.001) from 2012 (annual average of 0.07 %) to 2013 (annual average of 0.14 %), followed by a drop in 2014 (annual average of 0.10 %). Aedes breeding data further showed a wide spread distribution of Ae. aegypti in the country that corresponded with the dengue case distribution pattern in 2013 and 2014. The adult Aedes data from 34 gravitrap sentinel sites revealed that approximately 1/3 of the monitored sites remained at high risk of DENV transmission in 2013.Conclusions: The culmination of the latest epidemic is likely to be due to a number of demographic, social, virological, entomological, immunological, climatic and ecological factors that contribute to DENV transmission. A multi-pronged approach backed by the epidemiological, virological and entomological understanding paved way to moderate the case burden through an integrated vector management approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Singapore's diarrhoeal notification system is based on specific pathogens. Official data may thus be skewed towards notifiable diseases. Limited information is available on the profiles of aetiological agents responsible for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) cases, especially among the adult population. To understand the frequency and distribution of potential causative agents of diarrheal disease in Singapore, we screened adults' stool samples collected from a large public hospital.Methods: The stool samples were screened for 18 diarrheagenic pathogens using a combination of commercial multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR), in-house singleplex PCR and immunochromatographic assays. One hundred adult faecal samples that were collected from October 2013 to January 2014 for routine diagnostic purposes and submitted for culture at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore were used.Results: Pathogens were detected in 32% of the samples. The predominant organisms encountered were norovirus genogroup II (11%), Aeromonas spp. (9%) and Campylobacter spp. (5%). One sample was positive for both verocytotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) and E. coli O157:H7. Two other samples were positive for VTEC only, and one other sample was positive for E. coli O157:H7 only. Astrovirus, C. perfringens, Shigella spp. and toxigenic C. difficile were each detected in 2% of the samples. Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, group A rotavirus, Salmonella spp. and Vibrio spp. were each detected in 1% of the samples. No L. monocytogenes, Y. enterocolitica, enteric adenovirus, or norovirus genogroup I were detected.Conclusion: Our preliminary findings suggest that pathogens causing non-notifiable diseases might have contributed considerably to the adult hospitalised AGE cases. However, as the samples were from an adult hospital, the data obtained may not be representative of the whole community. Thus, a larger study to collect clinical samples and risk exposure data from primary healthcare clinics and children hospital is planned for, to gain a more holistic perspective on the epidemiology of AGE in Singapore. A larger study may also offer valuable insights for improving the approach of microbiological surveillance of food, as well as strategizing inspection efforts along the food supply chain by public health authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In Singapore, dose-response bioassays of Aedes aegypti (L.) adults have been conducted, but the mechanisms underlying resistance to insecticides remain unclear. In this study, we evaluated insecticide resistance and its underlying mechanism in field populations of Ae. aegypti adults. Methods Seven populations of Ae. aegypti were collected from public residential areas and assays were conducted according to WHO guidelines to determine their susceptibility to several commonly used insecticides. Results Various levels of pyrethroid resistance (RR50 = 3.76 to 142.06-fold) and low levels of pirimiphos-methyl resistance (RR50 = 1.01 to 1.51-fold) were detected. The insecticide susceptibility profile of Ae. aegypti adults was homogenous among the different study sites. Addition of the synergists piperonyl butoxide, S,S,S,-tributyl phosphorotrithioate, and triphenyl phosphate generally failed to enhance the toxicity of the insecticides investigated, suggesting an insignificant role of metabolic-based insecticide resistance and possible involvement of target site resistance. Further biochemical investigation of specific metabolic enzyme activities provided further evidence that detoxifying enzymes such as monooxygenases, esterases, glutathione S-transferases and altered acethylcholinesterases generally did not contribute to the resistance observed. Conclusions This study confirmed the presence of pyrethroid resistance among Ae. aegypti adults in Singapore and documented the early onset of organophosphate resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A dengue early warning system aims to prevent a dengue outbreak by providing an accurate prediction of a rise in dengue cases and sufficient time to allow timely decisions and preventive measures to be taken by local authorities. This study seeks to identify the optimal lead time for warning of dengue cases in Singapore given the duration required by a local authority to curb an outbreak. Methodology and Findings: We developed a Poisson regression model to analyze relative risks of dengue cases as functions of weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall with lag times of 1-5 months using spline functions. We examined the duration of vector control and cluster management in dengue clusters >= 10 cases from 2000 to 2010 and used the information as an indicative window of the time required to mitigate an outbreak. Finally, we assessed the gap between forecast and successful control to determine the optimal timing for issuing an early warning in the study area. Our findings show that increasing weekly mean temperature and cumulative rainfall precede risks of increasing dengue cases by 4-20 and 8-20 weeks, respectively. These lag times provided a forecast window of 1-5 months based on the observed weather data. Based on previous vector control operations, the time needed to curb dengue outbreaks ranged from 1-3 months with a median duration of 2 months. Thus, a dengue early warning forecast given 3 months ahead of the onset of a probable epidemic would give local authorities sufficient time to mitigate an outbreak. Conclusions: Optimal timing of a dengue forecast increases the functional value of an early warning system and enhances cost-effectiveness of vector control operations in response to forecasted risks. We emphasize the importance of considering the forecast-mitigation gaps in respective study areas when developing a dengue forecasting model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue and chikungunya are co-circulating vector-borne diseases with substantial overlap in clinical presentations. It is important to differentiate between them during first presentation as their management, especially for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), is different. This study compares their clinical presentation in Singapore adults to derive predictors to assist doctors in diagnostic decision-making. Methods: We compared 117 patients with chikungunya infection diagnosed with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) with 917 dengue RT-PCR-positive adult patients (including 55 with DHF). We compared dengue fever (DF), DHF, and chikungunya infections by evaluating clinical characteristics of dengue and chikungunya; developing classification tools via multivariate logistic regression models and classification trees of disease etiology using clinical and laboratory factors; and assessing the time course of several clinical variables. Findings: At first presentation to hospital, significantly more chikungunya patients had myalgia or arthralgia, and fewer had a sore throat, cough (for DF), nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, abdominal pain, anorexia or tachycardia than DF or DHF patients. From the decision trees, platelets <118×109/L was the only distinguishing feature for DF versus chikungunya with an overall correct classification of 89%. For DHF versus chikungunya using platelets <100×109/L and the presence of bleeding, the overall correct classification was 98%. The time course analysis supported platelet count as the key distinguishing variable. Interpretation: There is substantial overlap in clinical presentation between dengue and chikungunya infections, but simple clinical and laboratory variables can predict these infections at presentation for appropriate management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) is a little known flavivirus that caused a major outbreak in 2007, in the South-western Pacific Island of Yap. It causes dengue-like syndromes but with milder symptoms. In Africa, where it was first isolated, ZIKV is mainly transmitted by sylvatic Aedes mosquitoes. The virus has also been isolated from Ae. aegypti and it is considered to be the vector involved in the urban transmission of the virus. Transmission of the virus by an African strain of Ae. aegypti has also been demonstrated under laboratory conditions. The aim of the present study is to describe the oral susceptibility of a Singapore strain of Ae. aegypti to ZIKV, under conditions that simulate local climate. Methodology/Principal Findings: To assess the receptivity of Singapore's Ae. aegypti to the virus, we orally exposed a local mosquito strain to a Ugandan strain of ZIKV. Upon exposure, fully engorged mosquitoes were maintained in an environmental chamber set at 29uC and 70-75% RH. Eight mosquitoes were then sampled daily from day 1 to day 7, and subsequently on days 10 and 14 post exposure (pe). The virus titer of the midgut and salivary glands of each mosquito were determined using a tissue culture infectious dose50 (TCID50) assay. High midgut infection and salivary gland dissemination rates were observed. By day 5 after the infectious blood meal, ZIKV was found in the salivary glands of more than half of the mosquitoes tested (62%); and by day 10, all mosquitoes were potentially infective. Conclusions/Significance: This study showed that Singapore's urban Ae. aegypti are susceptible and are potentially capable of transmitting ZIKV. The virus could be established in Singapore should it be introduced. Nevertheless, Singapore's current dengue control strategy is applicable to control ZIKV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue illness causes 50-100 million infections worldwide and threatens 2.5 billion people in the tropical and subtropical regions. Little is known about the disease burden and economic impact of dengue in higher resourced countries or the cost-effectiveness of potential dengue vaccines in such settings. Methods and Findings: We estimate the direct and indirect costs of dengue from hospitalized and ambulatory cases in Singapore. We consider inter alia the impacts of dengue on the economy using the human-capital and the friction cost methods. Disease burden was estimated using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the cost-effectiveness of a potential vaccine program was evaluated. The average economic impact of dengue illness in Singapore from 2000 to 2009 in constant 2010 US$ ranged between $0.85 billion and $1.15 billion, of which control costs constitute 42%-59%. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated an annual average disease burden of 9-14 DALYs per 100 000 habitants, making it comparable to diseases such as hepatitis B or syphilis. The proportion of symptomatic dengue cases detected by the national surveillance system was estimated to be low, and to decrease with age. Under population projections by the United Nations, the price per dose threshold for which vaccines stop being more cost-effective than the current vector control program ranged from $50 for mass vaccination requiring 3 doses and only conferring 10 years of immunity to $300 for vaccination requiring 2 doses and conferring lifetime immunity. The thresholds for these vaccine programs to not be cost-effective for Singapore were $100 and $500 per dose respectively. Conclusions: Dengue illness presents a serious economic and disease burden in Singapore. Dengue vaccines are expected to be cost-effective if reasonably low prices are adopted and will help to reduce the economic and disease burden of dengue in Singapore substantially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The sensitivity and specificity of two in-house MAC-ELISA assays were tested and compared with the performance of commercially-available CTK lateral flow rapid test and EUROIMMUN IFA assays for the detection of anti- Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) IgM. Each MAC-ELISA assay used a whole virus-based antigen derived from genetically distinct CHIKV strains involved in two chikungunya disease outbreaks in Singapore (2008); a January outbreak strain with alanine at amino acid residue 226 of the E1 glycoprotein (CHIKV-A226) and a May-to-September outbreak strain that possessed valine at the same residue (CHIKV-226V). We report differences in IgM detection efficacy of different assays between the two outbreaks. The sensitivities of two PCR protocols were also tested. Methods and Findings: For sera from January outbreak, the average detection threshold of CTK lateral flow test, MACELISAs and EUROIMMUN IFA assays was 3.75, 4.38 and 4.88 days post fever onset respectively. In contrast, IgM detection using CTK lateral flow test was delayed to more than 7 days after fever onset in the second outbreak sera. However, MACELISA using CHIKV-226V detected IgM in the second outbreak sera 3.96 days after fever onset, which was approximately one day earlier compared to the same assay using CHIKV-A226 (4.86 days). Specificity was 100% for both commercial assays, and 95.6% for the in-house MAC-ELISAs. For sensitivity determination of the PCR protocols, the probe-based real time RT-PCR method was found to be 10 times more sensitive than one based on SYBR Green. Conclusion: Our findings suggested that the two strains of CHIKV using variants A226 and 226V resulted in variation in sensitivities of the assays evaluated. We postulated that the observed difference in antigen efficacy could be due to the amino acid substitution differences in viral E1 and E2 envelope proteins, especially the E1-A226V substitution. This evaluation demonstrates the importance of appraisal of different diagnostic assays before their application in clinical and operational settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Singapore has been certified malaria free since November 1982 by the World Health Organization and despite occasional local transmission, the country has maintained the standing. In 2009, three clusters of malaria cases were reported in Singapore. Methods: Epidemiological, entomological and molecular studies were carried out to investigate the three clusters, namely Mandai-Sungei Kadut, Jurong Island and Sembawang. Results: A total of 29 malaria patients, with no recent travel history, were reported in the three clusters. Molecular analysis based on the msp3α and msp1 genes showed two independent local transmissions: one in Mandai-Sungei Kadut and another in Sembawang. Almost all cases within each cluster were epidemiologically linked. In Jurong Island cluster, epidemiological link remains uncertain, as almost all cases had a unique genetic profile. Only two cases shared a common profile and were found to be linked to the Mandai-Sungei Kadut cluster. Entomological investigation found Anopheles sinensis to be the predominant Anopheline in the two areas where local transmission of P. vivax was confirmed. Anopheles sinensis was found to be attracted to human bait and bites as early as 19:45 hrs. However, all Anopheles mosquitoes caught were negative for sporozoites and oocysts by dissection. Conclusion: Investigation of P. vivax cases from the three cluster areas confirmed the occurrence of local transmission in two areas. Although An. sinensis was the predominant Anopheline found in areas with confirmed transmission, the vector/s responsible for the outbreaks still remains cryptic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hantaviruses cause human disease in endemic regions around the world. Outbreaks of hantaviral diseases have been associated with changes in rodent population density and adaptation to human settlements leading to their proliferation in close proximity to human dwellings. In a parallel study initiated to determine the prevalence of pathogens in Singapore's wild rodent population, 1206 rodents were trapped and screened. The findings established a hantavirus seroprevalence of 34%. This paper describes the molecular characterization of hantaviruses from Rattus norvegicus and Rattus tanezumi, the predominant rodents caught in urban Singapore. Methodology: Pan-hanta RT-PCR performed on samples of Rattus norvegicus and Rattus tanezumi indicated that 27 (2.24%) of the animals were positive. sequence analysis of the S and M segments established that two different hantavirus strains circulate in the rodent population of Singapore. Notably, the hantavirus strains found in Rattus norvegicus clusters with other Asian Seoul virus sequences, while the virus strains found in Rattus tanezumi had the highest sequence similarity to the Serang virus from Rattus tanezumi in Indonesia, followed by Cambodian hantavirus isolates and the Thailand virus isolated from Bandicota indica. Conclusions: Sequence analysis of the S and M segments of hantavirus strains found in Rattus norvegicus (Seoul virus strain Singapore) and Rattus tanezumi (Serang virus strain Jurong TJK/06) revealed that two genetically different hantavirus strains were found in rodents of Singapore. Evidently, together with Serang, Cambodian and Thailand virus the Jurong virus forms a distinct phylogroup. Interestingly, these highly similar virus strains have been identified in different rodent hosts. Further studies are underway to analyze the public health significance of finding hantavirus strains in Singapore rodents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about the immunopathogenesis of Chikungunya virus. Circulating levels of immune mediators and growth factors were analyzed from patients infected during the first Singaporean Chikungunya fever outbreak in early 2008 to establish biomarkers associated with infection and/or disease severity. Methods and Findings: Adult patients with laboratory-confirmed Chikungunya fever infection, who were referred to the Communicable Disease Centre/Tan Tock Seng Hospital during the period from January to February 2008, were included in this retrospective study. Plasma fractions were analyzed using a multiplex-microbead immunoassay. Among the patients, the most common clinical features were fever (100%), arthralgia (90%), rash (50%) and conjunctivitis (40%). Profiles of 30 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors were able to discriminate the clinical forms of Chikungunya from healthy controls, with patients classified as non-severe and severe disease. Levels of 8 plasma cytokines and 4 growth factors were significantly elevated. Statistical analysis showed that an increase in IL-1b, IL-6 and a decrease in RANTES were associated with disease severity. Conclusions: This is the first comprehensive report on the production of cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors during acute Chikungunya virus infection. Using these biomarkers, we were able to distinguish between mild disease and more severe forms of Chikungunya fever, thus enabling the identification of patients with poor prognosis and monitoring of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Singapore, after a major outbreak of dengue in 2005, another outbreak occurred in 2007. Laboratory-based surveillance detected a switch from dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) to DENV-2. Phylogenetic analysis showed a clade replacement within DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype, which accompanied the predominant serotype switch, and cocirculation of multiple genotypes of DENV-3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report a case of naturally acquired Plasmodium knowlesi in Singapore, a malaria-free country. Diagnosis was confirmed by PCR with validated species-specific primers. In industrialized countries, free-ranging primates are a potential source of P. knowlesi human infection. P. knowlesi infection is a differential diagnosis of febrile illness acquired in Singapore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]