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【Objective】 The study on the change characteristics of cultivated land area and its influence on grain production pattern in key watersheds aims to provide reference for promoting the sustainable use of cultivated land and coordinating the relationship between food security and economic development. 【Method】 Taking 82 counties in key watersheds of Sichuan Province as the research unit, using mathematical quantization model and GIS spatial analysis method, this paper explores the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land area and its influence on the change of grain production pattern in the study area in recent 20 years. 【Result】 (1) From 2001 to 2020, the cultivated land area in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province increased by 915,700 hm², with an increase rate of 37.39%, but showed a changing trend of “increase→ basically unchanged→ decrease→ basically unchanged” in different economic development periods. (2) The change of cultivated land area showed a spatial agglomeration state of “high-value cluster area” and “low-value cluster area” in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province, and the changes in quantity of these areas showed an inverted “N” type fluctuation trend in different economic development periods. (3) The spatial transfer types of grain production (grain production transfer out area, grain production transfer into area and grain production stability area) in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province showed a fluctuating trend of increase and decrease in quantity. In general, the area of grain production transferred out and transferred into increased by 13.42% and 13.41%, respectively, and the change trend was basically unchanged. However, the grain production stability area decreased significantly, down by 26.83%, and there was regional degradation in grain production. (4) The change of cultivated land area is an important cause of the spatial transfer of grain production in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province, and the counties that are sensitive to the change of cultivated land area show the characteristics of centralized and multi-point distribution. 【Conclusion】 The change of cultivated land area and its impact on grain production pattern in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2020 fluctuated significantly in different periods of economic development. Therefore, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to strictly implement the cultivated land use control system, strengthen the cooperative management of regional competent departments, establish the long-term benefit compensation mechanism of cultivated land conservation, and construct the cultivated land security early warning and control mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

【Objective】It is of great practical significance to study the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the temporal and spatial pattern of production in the major grain-producing counties for a comprehensive understanding of food security issues and the formulation of regional differentiated food polices. 【Method】Taking the 90 major grain-producing counties in Sichuan province as the research object, with the help of geographic gravity center model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, logarithmic mean dyadic decomposition method, the present study analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and its influencing factors of grain production in Sichuan province from 2005 to 2020. 【Result】(i)From the perspective of comprehensive grain production capacity, the output of 90 major grain-producing counties in Sichuan province showed a stable growth trend, with an annual growth rate of 1.24%, but the fluctuation of grain production in different regions was different;(ii)From the perspective of different grain varieties, the variety that contributed the most to the increase of grain production in the 90 major grain-producing counties was maize, then followed by rice, potato and bean, and the contribution rate of wheat to grain yield was negative;(iii)From the perspective of spatial agglomeration characteristics, the gravity center of grain production of the 90 major grain producing-counties in Sichuan province moved to east and south as a whole, and the grain production capacity in the eastern region was generally higher than that in the southern region; Meanwhile, as time went by, the overall spatial agglomeration of grain production was gradually enhanced, high value agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in southern Sichuan economic zone, while low value agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in Chengdu plain economic zone and Panxi economic zone;(iv)From the perspective of influencing factors of grain yield increased, the increase of grain yield per unit area contributed significantly to grain yield increase, but the effect of the change of sowing area on grain yield in different regions was obviously different. 【Conclusion】It is suggested to strictly abide by the red line of cultivated land, strengthen scientific and technological support, improve the socialized service system for agricultural production, and establish a benefit compensation mechanism for major grain-producing counties of food production, so as to ensure the grain safety in Sichuan province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]