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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted public health and economies worldwide. In this paper, we investigate an optimal control problem to simultaneously minimize the epidemic size and control costs associated with intervention strategies based on official data. Considering people with undetected infections, we establish a control system of COVID-19 with time-varying parameters. To estimate these parameters, a parameter identification scheme is adopted and a mixed algorithm is constructed. Moreover, we present an optimal control problem with two objectives that involve the newly increased number of infected individuals and the control costs. A numerical scheme is conducted, simulating the epidemic data pertaining to Shanghai during the period of 2022, caused by the Omicron variant. Coefficient combinations of the objectives are obtained, and the optimal control measures for different infection peaks are indicated. The numerical results suggest that the identification variables obtained by using the constructed mixed algorithm to solve the parameter identification problem are feasible. Optimal control measures for different epidemic peaks can serve as references for decision-makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traction load of electrified railways is a special user of the power system, which will have a significant impact on and pose a challenge to the power system after grid connection. Considering the impact and fluctuation of traction load connected to the power grid, this paper proposed a method to study the influence of traction load on the transient stability of the power grid based on parameter identification. Firstly, according to the operation characteristics of traction load, a comprehensive traction load model based on the measurement-based method of induction motor parallel power function model is selected, and the objective function of parameter identification is determined. Then, the specific steps of using the improved gray wolf optimizer (IGWO) algorithm to achieve the parameter identification of the traction comprehensive load model are introduced, including chaotic map, nonlinear convergence factor, and individual position update. Next, with the IEEE39 bus system as the network background, the load parameters identified by the measured data of a line of the Beijing–Shanghai high-speed railway are imported into the Power System Analysis Software Package (PSASP) 7.0 for transient simulation to analyze the impact of traction load on the transient stability of the power grid. Finally, three typical load models are compared with the traction load model to draw relevant conclusions, and it is verified that the traction load characteristics are different from the general load model, which provides reference for the connection of electrified railway traction load to the power grid and the economic and technical construction of the power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• To solve the forecasting problems of time-lead and nonlinearity in a system, a novel grey multivariable model is proposed. • To reduce the morbidity of the model, the solution of the proposed model is deduced through a derivation method. • The grey prediction evolution algorithm is employed to find the optimal value of parameters. • The validity of the new model was verified by three examples and applied to house price forecasting. Time lags or leads and non-linearity of complex systems are critical to address in accurate scientific prediction. However, few studies have focused on time-lead and nonlinear models with limited information. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a novel grey multivariate model with time-lead operator τ and nonlinear factor r from the perspective of this problem. Next, the solution of the proposed model is deduced through a derivation method to reduce the morbidity of the model. Then, the parameter identification of the model is given on the basis of the least-squares method. The grey prediction evolution algorithm is employed to find the optimal value of parameters τ and r to meet the minimum errors. Finally, house prices of Wuhan, Beijing and Shanghai in China are performed to verify the validity and reliability of the new model. The results demonstrate the model we proposed has satisfactory prediction precision, demonstrating that time-lead and nonlinear factor in the model is reasonable. At the end of the paper, the house prices of these three cities from 2022 to 2028 are also predicted. The average annual growth rate in the three regions is 2.49%, 3.57% and 2.97%, respectively. These results are useful to policy analysis regarding house price correlations. They provide insights for market investors and policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate numerical analysis in geotechnical engineering heavily relies on the constitutive model and its parameters. The advanced constitutive model can describe the complex mechanical behaviors of soil that may involve a number of parameters. However, determining the values of constitutive parameters always relies on manual trial-and-error, which can be a time-consuming process and not conducive to widespread application. This paper presents an identification method that combines machine learning with search algorithm based on the laboratory and in-situ testing. Initially, the sensitivity of constitutive parameters was analyzed by investigating the effects of variations in soil overconsolidation and structural parameters on the results of triaxial and pressuremeter tests. Subsequently, the initial state parameter values and material control parameter ranges of the soil can be identified from the triaxial tests, this is achieved by using the neural network model. In order to accurately determine the parameters value, the numerical model was established based on in-situ pressuremeter test, and traversal algorithm was implemented to search for the optimal fit values within the range of material control parameters. Finally, the proposed identification method was applied to layers 3–5 of Shanghai clay, and the inverted parameters exhibited a good fit with the outcomes of triaxial tests and pressuremeter tests. The combination of laboratory and in-situ testing can enhance the reliability of obtaining constitutive parameters, and this method provides an insight into the parameters identification for advanced constitutive models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The three-dimensional energy resources demand-supply system is established for two regions of China, in which determination of unknown parameters is significant for the real energy resources demand-supply system. In this paper, based on Shanghai’s energy statistic data (1999–2005), the parameters of the energy resources demand-supply system can be identified by using the neural network method, and an energy resources demand-supply system reflecting the real energy resources demand-supply relationship in Shanghai is obtained. The dynamical behavior of this system is also analyzed. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation indicate that the obtained energy resources demand-supply system has the capacity of self-regulation and demonstrates a steady state. Finally, to ensure the steady development of the energy resources demand-supply system, corresponding measures are proposed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]