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In the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group Trial Number 4 (SPCG-4), 347 men were randomly assigned to radical prostatectomy and 348 to watchful waiting. In the most recent analysis (median follow-up time = 12.8 years), the cumulative mortality curves had been stable over the follow-up. At 15 years, the absolute risk reduction of dying from prostate cancer was 6.1% following randomization to radical prostatectomy, compared with watchful waiting. Hence, 17 need to be randomized to operation to avert one death. Data on self-reported symptoms, stress from symptoms, and quality of life were collected at 4 and 12.2 years of median follow-up. These questionnaire studies show an intricate pattern of symptoms evolving after surgery, hormonal treatments, signs of tumor progression, and also from natural aging. This article discusses some of the main findings of the SPCG-4 study.

Background: The benefit of radical prostatectomy in patients with early prostate cancer has been assessed in only one randomized trial. In 2005, we reported that radical prostatectomy improved prostate cancer survival compared with watchful waiting after a median of 8.2 years of follow-up. We now report results after 3 more years of follow-up., Methods: From October 1, 1989, through February 28, 1999, 695 men with clinically localized prostate cancer were randomly assigned to radical prostatectomy (n = 347) or watchful waiting (n = 348). Follow-up was complete through December 31, 2006, with histopathologic review and blinded evaluation of causes of death. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Statistical tests were two-sided., Results: During a median of 10.8 years of follow-up (range = 3 weeks to 17.2 years), 137 men in the surgery group and 156 in the watchful waiting group died (P = .09). For 47 of the 347 men (13.5%) who were randomly assigned to surgery and 68 of the 348 men (19.5%) who were not, death was due to prostate cancer. The difference in cumulative incidence of death due to prostate cancer remained stable after about 10 years of follow-up. At 12 years, 12.5% of the surgery group and 17.9% of the watchful waiting group had died of prostate cancer (difference = 5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 11.1%), for a relative risk of 0.65 (95% CI = 0.45 to 0.94; P = .03). The difference in cumulative incidence of distant metastases did not increase beyond 10 years of follow-up. At 12 years, 19.3% of men in the surgery group and 26% of men in the watchful waiting group had been diagnosed with distant metastases (difference = 6.7%, 95% CI = 0.2 to 13.2%), for a relative risk of 0.65 (95% CI = 0.47 to 0.88; P = .006). Among men who underwent radical prostatectomy, those with extracapsular tumor growth had 14 times the risk of prostate cancer death as those without it (RR = 14.2, 95% CI = 3.3 to 61.8; P < .001)., Conclusion: Radical prostatectomy reduces prostate cancer mortality and risk of metastases with little or no further increase in benefit 10 or more years after surgery.

Background: Rates of long-term survival among patients with untreated localized prostate cancer are high. To avoid unnecessary treatment, tools are needed to identify the small proportion of patients who are destined to develop lethal prostate cancer., Methods: To evaluate the accuracy of early changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels as predictors of prostate cancer outcome, we assessed serial measurements of PSA level among 267 men with localized prostate cancer in a Scandinavian cohort of men who were diagnosed between 1989 and 1999 and who were managed by watchful waiting. We then 1) fitted individual regression lines to the PSA values assessed for each patient during the first 2 years of follow-up by using three different models, 2) evaluated early PSA curve characteristics as determinants of the cumulative incidence of lethal prostate cancer and calculated hazard ratios for baseline PSA value and rate of change in PSA level to prostate cancer outcome, and 3) plotted time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All P values are two-sided., Results: During complete follow-up for a mean of 8.5 years, 34 patients (13%) died from prostate cancer, and 18 (7%) developed metastases but were still alive at end of follow-up. In a log-linear model, both PSA value at baseline (P = .05) and the rate of PSA change (P<.001) were associated with the development of lethal prostate cancer. In the ROC analysis, however, the accuracy of classifying the disease as either indolent or destined to progress was low, regardless of the cut point chosen for initial PSA level or rate of change in PSA level., Conclusions: Although baseline PSA value and rate of PSA change are prognostic factors for lethal prostate cancer, they are poor predictors of lethal prostate cancer among patients with localized prostate cancer who are managed by watchful waiting.