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Possibilities of using the basic technology of probabilistic scenario forecasting of the regional climate to obtain detailed estimates of future changes in applied indicators of the thermal regime in the territory of federal districts and individual subjects of the Russian Federation are considered. Probabilistic ensemble estimates of future changes are presented for climatic indicators such as seasonal extremes of air temperature for a given averaging period, the sum of active temperatures, energy consumption indices for cold and warm seasons, and other characteristics of intra-annual periods with air temperatures above/below threshold values. The changes in the considered parameters of the thermal regime have been analyzed. It is shown that the main features of changes expected by the middle of the 21st century detected by the results of modeling over most of the territory of Russia are well manifested based on the observational data in the interval 1961–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem is considered of estimating expected climatic changes over the territory of Russia in relation to the characteristics of rare precipitation extremes, which are widely used in designing various structures and technical systems. Based on numerous ensemble experiments with a high-resolution regional climate model and the extreme value modeling approach, future changes in the intensity and frequency of rare extremes for seasonal and annual 1- and 5-day precipitation maxima are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the uncertainty of the projections on various timescales. Important spatial peculiarities of changes in the analyzed rare precipitation extremes are identified, which is reasonable to take into account when adapting to climate change at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatiotemporal evolution of actual and potential evapotranspiration and water deficit (stress) of the irrigated surfaces during the 21st century influenced by the changes in the meteorological drought characteristics is analyzed for the southern regions of European Russia for individual months of the growing season. The joint system of the MGO regional climate model and the mesoscale atmospheric boundary layer model is used to estimate regional and local climate change. The effect of the evapotranspiration evaluation method on the resulting estimates is investigated. The expansion of the territory affected by droughts of various severity is projected for all months of the growing season. It is shown that the major risk for vegetation due to water deficit during droughts may be expected at the beginning of the growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The feasibility of applying probabilistic regional climate projection approach for mass ensemble simulations at the 25-km resolution across Russia is considered. Major attention is paid to the analysis of future changes in climate indicators of temperature and precipitation conditions, which significantly affect the operation reliability of constructions and technical systems including transport and energy infrastructure facilities. Along with the mean estimates, we used the frequency criteria which allow quantifying the estimates of return periods for various-intensity extreme events in the middle and end of the 21st century. The results of the study may be considered as an information basis for the development of adaptation programs for the Russian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study considers the problem of detailing climate projections with respect to changes in the precipitation regime over the territory of Russia by the middle of the 21st century. Numerous ensemble calculations with the high-resolution regional climate model are used to obtain the projections of climatic changes concerning the duration of dry and wet spells as well as in the related extremes of the amount and daily intensity of precipitation. The estimates of the trend in the analyzed precipitation characteristics derived from standard meteorological observations are presented for 1966–2015. Important seasonal and regional features of changes in the analyzed parameters of extremity are revealed. It is reasonable to consider these features when adapting to climate change at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The projection of economic consequences of climate change for forestry in the subjects of the Russian Federation is obtained for the end of the 21st century. The assessment is based on the numerous high-resolution ensemble simulations of climate change. Due to the expected increase in forest productivity, the stock of coniferous and deciduous woods will grow thus increasing wood cost. An increase in total expenses for forest fire extinction is expected by the end of the century as a result of climate-related changes in fire danger in the Russian Federation subjects. The economic assessment of possible damage due to wildfires shows that the average total cost of forest fire management in Russia can increase under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios by 211114 and 248956 thousand rubles. The most significant increase in the costs of forest fire management is projected in the Tyumen and Arkhangelsk oblasts and in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous okrug-Yugra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study considers the problem of constructing a scenario forecast of changing climatic characteristics of air temperature extremes which are important for the current economy needs. Based on the numerous ensemble experiments with a high-resolution system of models, the probabilistic estimates of future changes in the applied indices of rare temperature extremes over Russia are obtained. Particular attention is given to the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty of the estimates obtained in the middle and the end of the 21st century. The important seasonal and regional features of changes in the analyzed extreme parameters are identified; they should be taken into account when adapting to climate changes at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of increasing the informativeness of climate projections in the Russian Arctic in order to meet the current economy needs is considered. The detailed estimates are presented of changes for the most important specialized indicators of the thermal and moisture regimes which characterize climatic impacts on the economic development of the Russian Arctic in the 21st century. The calculations are based on the data of numerical experiments with the regional climate model which were conducted for the Arctic region in the framework of the international CORDEX project. The high resolution of the model (50 km) and the consideration of mesoscale factors helped to detect significant spatial differences in the estimates of changes in the analyzed parameters which should be taken into account when adapting to climate change at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aspects ofthe impact ofcurrent and future (in the middle of the 21st century) climate change on the operational safety and efficiency of traditional energy sources (thermal, nuclear, and hydroelectric power stations) in seven regions of Russia are considered. The climate change projections are provided by the ensemble of the MGO regional climate model with the resolution of 25 km under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The regions with the highest weather- and climate-related risk for the energy production are identified, and some recommendations on the risk reduction are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem is stated of quantification of the 21st century climate change projections across Russia detailed in the physical and probability spaces. The obtained projections are to be used for the quantitative description of future climate impacts on the sectors of the Russian economy and, in the end, for de velop ing the federal, sector, and regional plans of adaptation to climate changes. The formulated problem is solved by massive (50 members) ensemble simulations using the high-resolution (the horizontal resolution is 25 km) system of climate models developed in the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]