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Farming in higher latitudes is generally believed to benefit from a warmer climate due to extended growing season, reduced risk of frost, availability of more productive cultivars, and an opening potential of farming in northern locations. We analyzed the impact of climate change on production of cereals in Russia and found that this general perception of beneficiary effect of a warmer climate is unlikely to hold, primarily due to increasing risk of droughts in the most important agricultural areas of the country. Past impacts of droughts on food security throughout the twentieth century suggest that a number of adaptation options are available to mitigate the increasing risks of crop failure. We analyze the effectiveness of these measures in connection with a set of climate change projections, under two contrasting scenarios of interregional grain trade: 'Fortress Market' and 'Open Market.' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is expected that a warmer climate would be beneficial for agriculture in high latitudes. However, this general tendency is not necessarily true for all northern countries, as a short growing period is not the only factor limiting agriculture. For Russia, our model shows that the remarkable increase in potential yield in central and northern-forested regions would not compensate for a sharp drop in yields due to increasing frequency of droughts in the currently most productive southern European regions. If this scenario is indeed realized, the majority of Russian regions will continue to rely on import of agricultural products from a few regions with the best soils, and a system of interregional grain trade will remain critical for food security. However, the basic rules of interregional food market have varied widely over the past century. We have attempted an analysis of the potential impact of these basic rules on regional food security by describing four basic historical market scenarios and applying these scenarios to our results for climate change impact on agriculture in the 2020s and 2070s. We show that the current system, if it continues, would bring the worst results. We also show that the traditionally effective planned adaptation measures would help little in future climate conditions if the current market system were still in place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While previous studies have focused on impacts of average climate change on Russian agriculture and water resources, this study takes into account the impact of changing frequency and spatial heterogeneity of extreme climate events, and the reliance of most of Russia on a few food producing regions. We analyze impacts of the IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the use of the Global Assessment of Security (GLASS) model (containing the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) crop production model and the Water-Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP 2) water resources model). As in previous studies we find that decreased crop production in some Russian regions can be compensated by increased production in others resulting in relatively small average changes. However, a different perspective on future risk to agriculture is gained by taking into account a change in frequency of extreme climate events. Under climate normal conditions it is estimated that “food production shortfalls” (a year in which potential production of the most important crops in a region is below 50% of its average climate normal production, taking into account production in food-exporting regions) occur roughly 1–3 years in each decade. This frequency will double in many of the main crop growing areas in the 2020s, and triple in the 2070s. The effects of these shortfalls are likely to propagate throughout Russia because of the higher likelihood of shortfalls occurring in many crop export regions in the same year, and because of the dependence of most Russian regions on food imports from a relatively few main crop growing regions. We estimate that approximately 50 million people currently live in regions that experience one or more shortfalls each decade. This number may grow to 82–139 million in the 2070s. The assessment of climate impacts on water resources indicates an increase in average water availability in Russia, but also a significantly increased frequency of high runoff events in much of central Russia, and more frequent low runoff events in the already dry crop growing regions in the South. These results suggest that the increasing frequency of extreme climate events will pose an increasing threat to the security of Russia''s food system and water resources. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A spectrum of hereditary diseases of the nervous system (HDNS) was studied in the cities of Volgograd and Volzhsky. The estimates were obtained for the prevalence of major HDNS groups and individual nosological forms. The populations examined differed in prevalence of this pathology and in contribution of individual diseases and their nosological forms into HDNS load formation. The effect of the population dynamics in Volgograd and Volzhsky on the HDNS prevalence is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A genetic epidemiological study of hereditary diseases of the nervous system (HDNS) was conducted in the cities of Volgograd and Volzhsky for the first time. In total, 1 323 500 individuals were examined including the populations of Volgograd and Volzhsky (1 012 800 and 310 700 persons, respectively). The prevalence of neurological diseases with autosomal dominant (AD), autosomal recessive (AR), and X-linked recessive inheritance was estimated. These data were compared with the estimates previously obtained for different population of the Russian Federation. A decrease was found in general HDNS load in Volgograd and Volzhsky. The compared populations were shown to differ in a contribution of AD, AR, and X-linked recessive diseases into the HDNS load formation. The possible effect of population dynamics factors on the HDNS load structure is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A system of medical weather forecast for the Caucasian Mineral Waters spa-and-resort complex has been modified and updated based on the results of long-term observations of weather conditions in the region of interest with special reference to the bioclimatic regime, atmospheric circulation, aerosol pollution of the near-ground air, ultraviolet radiation, heliomagnetic activity, and meteopathic effects. This system provides a basis for the timely emergency meteopreventive treatment of meteodependent patients and therefore can be instrumental in enhancing efficiency of spa-and-resort rehabilitative therapy.

Based on the characteristics of body height and weight in 4905 newborns, the population-genetic structure of the rural raions (districts) of Kursk oblast (region) and in the city of Kursk was determined. An "adaptive norm area" with respect to body weight and height was distinguished for newborns in Kursk oblast. On the average, the anthropometric parameters of 20% of infants from the studied populations fell within this area. The height and growth of newborns exhibited a pronounced geographic variation and depended on the level of urbanization, as well as the sex and the health status of the newborns. In district populations, the body height and the variances of the body height and weight increased with an increase in endogamy. Therefore, the relative numbers of newborns with large values of both weight and height, as well as those with a medium body height and a small body weight, were increased. Conversely, the relative numbers of newborns with a low weight and height and with a disturbed weight-height correlation were decreased.

The distributions of AB0 and Rhesus phenotypes and the corresponding genes in the population of Kursk oblast were studied. Based on these data, genetic differentiation of rural populations with respect to the d gene frequency was revealed. The differentiation was determined by the differences in the genetic and demographic structure of these rural populations. The frequency of homozygotes for the recessive gene d and the incidence of malformations affecting the children's viability increased with an increase in the inbreeding level of a population. Genetic distances between the population of Kursk oblast and other populations were estimated.

A significant effect of the population structure on the incidence of multifactorial diseases affecting the viability of the adult population was found in rural districts of Kursk oblast. The diseases studied were chronic bronchitis, pulmonary emphysema, pneumosclerosis, and atherosclerosis. The incidence of multifactorial pathology increased with an increase in the homozygosity level of district populations. On average, the population structure affected the incidence of multifactorial diseases by 30-50%.

The coefficient of inbreeding and its components were calculated for populations of rural districts of Kursk oblast with the use of the isonymic method. The following values were obtained: F(it) = 0.000567, Fst = 0.000650, and Fis = 0.000083. The Fst value agreed with the value of Malecot's local inbreeding coefficient (0.000201). In the districts where the proportions of families with frequent family names (FFNs; a frequency of 0.001 and more) were 50% and over, these family names were sufficient to adequately describe the population structure. The migration index and the index of family-name diversity were calculated. Significant correlations were revealed between Fst, the migration index, the index of family-name diversity, Malecot's local inbreeding, the mean square distance between birthplaces of spouses, the effective migration pressure, and the coefficient of linear systematic pressure.

Investigation of the the genetics, demography, and epidemiology of congenital malformations (CMs) in Kursk oblast revealed statistically significant correlations between population parameters and the incidence of CM in the rural rations of the oblast. The general prevalence of CM and that of the separate CM forms ("guard" CM, multiple CM, hemangioma, congenital heart disease, congenital myelocele, talipes valgus, congenital femoral luxation, polydactyly, cryptorchism) increased with an increase in the average marital age of men and women of the reproductive part of the population and with an increase in the level of the populations homozygosity (an increase in the local consanguinity and ethnic marriage assortativeness, a decrease in the populations's migration activity, an increase in the proportion of genotypes homozygous for recessive genes, etc).

Total selection indices and their components in the Kursk Oblast, calculated from Crow's equations, are: Itot = = 0.403, I(f) = 0.345, Im = 0.043. The selection intensity was higher in rural than in urban populations. The levels of total selection and differential fertility in rural populations depended on the genetic and demographic structure of these populations. An increase of homozygosity in the rural populations (decreases in the mean square distance between spouses' birthplaces and in the frequency of long-range migrations, increase in ethnic assortativeness, etc.) increased the selection intensity.

When studying the marriage structure of the Kurskaya oblast population in 1987-1990, a positive marriage assortativeness with respect to ethnicity was found (K = 0.244). The Russian population exhibited panmixia; in the Ukrainian population, negative marriage assortativeness and panmixia prevailed; other ethnic groups were characterized by more or less pronounced positive marriage assortativeness. The ethnic compositions of raion (district) populations were determined by their geographic location and history. The parameter of marriage assortativeness with respect to age was r = 0.911; this value in the reproductive part of the population was r = 0.748. The age of contracting marriage in the raion populations depended on the extent of their urbanization.

The distribution of and time trends in congenital defects of development (CD) influencing viability of children in the Kursk region were studied on the basis of 4517 autopsy reports for the period 1985-1994. A total of 880 children had CD (5.40%). The incidence of CD in towns (6.38%), was higher than in country regions (4.91%), p < 0.001, being the highest in the central parts of the region. Among the stillborns the specific proportion of congenital defects was 14.53%, perinatal deaths occurred in 16.96%, deaths during the 1st year of life in 22.10%. The percentage of multiple congenital defects, the defects of cardiovascular system, developmental anomalies of digestive system, the defects of central nervous system and organs of sense was 39.77, 27.16, 10.11 and 8.30, respectively.

Analysis of marital structure revealed that 82% of men and 77% of women that contracted marriages in the Kurskaya oblast (administrative region) in 1987-1990 were born in this region. The average coefficient of demographic migration in the Kurskaya oblast was m = 0.345. The majority of migrants to the Kurskaya oblast were from neighboring areas: Central and Central Chernozem Zones of Russia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Marriage assortativeness with respect to the birthplaces of the spouses was K = 0.090. Migration activity increased with urbanization of the population. Migration structure of local populations was determined by mode, level, and direction of interaction between the processes underlying it.

Analyzes the effects of urbanization on the demographic structure of population. An increase in the degree of urbanization was found to be paralleled by an increase of the age qualification and of the migration activity of the population. The national composition of the population does not depend on urbanization.

Age characteristics, national composition, migration processes, and the level of inbreeding among Kursk citizens were analyzed on the basis of a sampling study of marriages registered in Kursk in 1960 and 1989. Assortative marriages in reference to age were r = 0.910 in 1960 and r = 0.904 in 1989. The polychoric relationship index characterizing national correlation of married pairs was K = 0.440 in 1960 and K = 0.405 in 1989. Positive assortive mating in reference to the birthplace of the married pairs was revealed: K = 0.190 in 1960; K = 0.161 in 1989. The coefficient of local population relationship (a) was 0.000026 in 1960 and 0.000011 in 1989.