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Based on the system theory and Pareto efficiency theory, this paper, based on the data of listed companies in China's A-share manufacturing industry in 2011–2022, explores the impact of market-driven green finance and government-guided green finance on the carbon emission intensity of manufacturing enterprises, and analyzes the intermediary role of debt financing cost. A negative "U" relationship exists in market-driven green finance/government-guided green finance and the carbon emission intensity of manufacturing enterprises. Further research shows that under the higher debt financing cost, market-driven green finance played a weaker carbon reduction effect. The heterogeneity analysis found that market-driven green finance can have a significant non-linear impact of "promoting growth first and weakening later" on the carbon emissions of energy-saving and environmental protection enterprises, large enterprises, and enterprises with high human capital levels. Government-guided green finance has a significant non-linear impact on non-energy-saving and environmental protection enterprises and small enterprises. This paper provides the theoretical basis and practical inspiration for the government to formulate relevant low-carbon development policies and promote the innovation of green financial tools in the financial market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]