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The economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs was evaluated taking the spatial variability of environmental conditions into account. Two sequential GIS-embedded submodels were developed for a spatial assessment, which allow for spatial variation in soil contamination, soil type, and land use. These models were applied for four SRC production and four energy conversion scenarios for the entire contaminated area of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia and for a part of the Bragin district, Belarus. It was concluded that in general medium-scale SRC production using local machines is most profitable. The areas near Chernobyl are not suitable for SRC production since the contamination levels in SRC wood exceed the intervention limit. Large scale SRC production is not profitable in areas where dry and sandy soils predominate. If the soil contamination does not exceed the intervention limit and sufficient SRC wood is available, all energy conversion scenarios are profitable.

A Monte Carlo analysis of two sequential GIS-embedded submodels, which evaluate the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs, was performed to allow for variability of environmental conditions that was not contained in the spatial model inputs. The results from this analysis were compared to the results from the deterministic model presented in part I of this paper. It was concluded that, although the variability in the model results due to within-gridcell variability of the model inputs was considerable, the prediction of the areas where SRC and energy conversion is potentially profitable was robust. If the additional variability in the model input that is not contained in the input maps is also taken into account, the SRC production and energy conversion appears to be potentially profitable at more locations for both the small scale and large scale production scenarios than the model predicted using the deterministic model.

Field experiments were conducted in the Chernobyl-affected area to assess if short rotation coppice (SRC) for energy production is a feasible alternative for contaminated land. Four willow clones were planted on sandy and peaty soil and the radiocaesium (137Cs) and radiostrontium (90Sr) transfer factors (TF) and yield relevant parameters were recorded during four growing seasons. The 137Cs and 90Sr soil-to-willow wood TF on sandy soil (second growing season) were on average 1.40+/-1.06 x 10(-3) m2 kg(-1) and 130+/-74 x 10(-3) m2 kg(-1), respectively. The 137Cs TF recorded for the peaty soil (fourth growing season or end of the first rotation cycle) was on average 5.17+/-1.59 x 10(-3) m2 kg(-1). The 90Sr-TF was on average 2.61+/-0.44 x 10(-3) m2 kg(-1). No significant differences between clones for the 137Cs and 90Sr-TF were observed. Given the high TFs and the high deposition levels, Belarus exemption levels for fuel wood were highly exceeded. The annual average biomass production for one rotation cycle on the peaty soil ranged from 7.8 to 16.0 t ha(-1) y(-1) for one of the clones, comparable with average annual yield figures obtained for western Europe. On the sandy soils, first-year yields were 0.25 t ha(-1) y(-1). These soils are not suitable for SRC production and should better be dedicated to pine forests or drought-resistant grasses.