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• The habitat of four antelopes showed a decreasing trend under climate change. • The four species were predicted to migrate to higher latitudes in the future. • The migration paths provide reference for the establishment of corridors. Climate change is predicted to directly or indirectly affect species distribution and abundance, especially the species that live on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau that is highly sensitive to climate change. The Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii), the Goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa), the Tibetan gazelle (Procapra picticaudata) and the Tibetan antelope (Pantholops hodgsonii) are the only four existing antelopes living on the plateau. They play indispensable roles in regulating the structure and function of the plateau ecosystem. To understand how climate change affects the spatial distribution and migration direction of these ungulates, we applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and used 82, 57, 397 and 324 GPS points of Przewalski's gazelle, Goitered gazelle, Tibetan gazelle and Tibetan antelope, respectively. These points were mainly obtained through the survey of the line transect method and a small part from the database, and then we combined with the related environmental variables, and afterwards evaluated to predict the habitat change and shift of species geographic range under three climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s. Additionally, the potential migration paths in the future were simulated by the Minimal Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model. The results showed that climate change would cause habitat loss for all four species. The Tibetan antelope was predicted to lose over 50% of its current inhabited area under the most severe climate scenario. Also, the suitable habitat of all species would shift to higher latitudes. In particular, the Przewalski's gazelle as an endangered species that occupies narrow habitat area would face more severe challenges in the future. Therefore, all suitable habitats should be considered as important protection areas, and our results also provide a reference for designing the optimal migration corridors for the investigated species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Revolutionizing National Park zoning in China with keystone species. • Habitat suitability of 16 wildlife in Kunlun area exhibits heterogeneity with MaxEnt. • KMNP's boundary and functional zoning were optimized, outperforming the selected area. National parks in China play a vital role in preserving biodiversity, protecting endangered species, maintaining ecological balance, and promoting sustainable development amid global biodiversity decline. Boundary delimitation and functional zoning within these parks are crucial for preserving ecosystem integrity and species diversity. In the case study of Kunlun Mountains National Park (KMNP, Qinghai section), an extensive wildlife background survey yielded 4,523 occurrence records (3,921 after optimization) for 16 nationally protected wildlife species. Using the ecological niche model, this study aimed to explore the boundary range, functional zoning, and protection gap areas within KMNP by simulating the suitable spatial distribution of wildlife species, taking into account their protection and endangered statuses. The findings indicated that the primary habitat for key protected species in KMNP mainly occupied meadow and steppe in terms of vegetation types, along with grassland and unused land in terms of land use types, with average annual precipitation from 200 mm to 400 mm, elevations ranging from 4,100 m to 4,700 m, and average annual temperatures from −4.5℃ to −2℃. The suitable distribution of different wildlife species in the Kunlun Mountains area showed variations, mainly concentrated in the southwestern, central, and southeastern regions. The optimized KMNP covered around 49,800 km2, a 16.3 % reduction from the selected area, with the core protection zone at 16,300 km2 and the general control zone at 33,200 km2. The suitability of 93.75 % (15/16) species within the core protection area of KMNP was higher comparing to the optimized area, selected area, and Mangya-Golmud-Dulan area, indicating that the boundary delimitation and functional zoning of KMNP were highly rational. The boundary range and functional zoning method developed in this study provide a crucial scientific foundation for KMNP's conservation and management, and valuable guidance for national park construction, ecosystem preservation, biodiversity conservation, and the promotion of key species' reproduction and survival on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with promising future applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Both wildlife and livestock were considered to assess grazing stress to obtain accurate results. • Domestic livestock contributed more to grazing pressure than wildlife in Three-River Headwaters. • Edible forage carrying capacity is more beneficial to achieve grassland and livestock balance than crude protein carrying capacity. • Analysis of grazing pressure in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau should focus more on the selective feeding of animals and seasonal factors. Grassland is not only the natural habitats for the survival of wild animals, but also the material guarantees for livestock husbandry. However, the previous studies on grassland carrying capacity are mostly only considering livestock but wild herbivores were ignored. In this study, the population of large wild herbivores, Tibetan wild ass, Tibetan gazelle and Tibetan antelope, and livestock were surveyed, and the grassland forage yield was estimated by a remote sensing-process coupled model in Qumahe Township in Three-River Headwaters, Qinghai-Tibetan in 2020. The actual carrying capacity (AC) was calculated from the both wildlife and livestock and the theoretical carrying capacity (TC) in the term on edible herbage and crude protein was estimated. Grazing pressure index was measured by the ratio of AC to TC in this region. The results showed the AC was contributed by about 20,700 standard sheep units (SHU) from wild large herbivores, and 256,500 SHU from the livestock. The theoretical carrying capacity of edible herbage, which is 274,800 SHU, was lower than the theoretical carrying capacity of crude protein in the region. If only considering livestock, the grazing capacity pressure index is 0.93, but the index will be 1.01 if the both wildlife and livestock were considered, and wildlife contributes 7.5% to the grazing pressure. This study suggested the wildlife population should be calculated in grassland ecological carrying capacity estimation though domestic livestock contributed much more to grazing pressure than wild herbivores. The new indicator would be useful in grassland management to maintain ecosystem and biodiversity balance, and society-economy sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]