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Background: The co-occurrence of chronic diseases and acute infectious events exacerbates disability and diminishes quality of life, yet research in Low- and Middle-Income countries is scarce. We aimed to investigate the relationship between infectious events and multimorbidity in resource-constrained settings. Methods: We conducted a sequential mixed-method study in Lima and Tumbes, Peru, with participants having multimorbidity from the CRONICAS Cohort Study. They completed a questionnaire on the occurrence, treatment, and health-seeking behaviour related to acute infectious events. Qualitative interviews explored the perceptions and links between multimorbidity and acute infectious events for a subgroup of participants. Findings: Among individuals with multimorbidity, low awareness of chronic conditions and poor medication adherence. The cumulative incidence for respiratory and gastrointestinal infections, the most reported acute conditions, was 2.0 [95%CI: 1.8–2.2] and 1.6 [1.2–1.9] events per person per year, respectively. Individuals with cancer (6.4 [1.6–11.2] events per person per year) or gastrointestinal reflux (7.2 [4.4–10.1] events per person per year) reported higher cumulative incidence of infectious events than others, such as those with cardiovascular and metabolic conditions (5.2 [4.6–5.8] events per person per year). Those with three or more chronic conditions had a slightly higher cumulative incidence compared with individuals with two conditions (5.7 [4.4–7.0] vs 5.0 [4.4–5.6] events per person per year). Around 40% of individuals with multimorbidity sought healthcare assistance, while others chose drugstores or didn't seek help. Our qualitative analysis showed diverse perceptions among participants regarding the connections between chronic and acute conditions. Those who recognized a connection emphasized the challenges in managing these interactions. Interpretation: Our study advances understanding of multimorbidity challenges in resource-limited settings, highlighting the impact of acute infections on patients' existing multimorbidity burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The long-term health association of the leisure-time and transport-related physical activity domains of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire have not been established in Latin American settings. The authors aimed to quantify the 7-year all-cause mortality risk associated with levels of leisure-time and transport-related physical activity. Methods: Ongoing prospective cohort study conducted in 4 sites in Peru. People ≥35 years were randomly selected from the general population in each study site. The exposures were leisure-time and transport-related physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaire) at baseline. The outcome was all-cause mortality based on information retrieved from national records. Cox regression and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: There were 3601 people (mean age 55.8 y, 51.5% women). Greater levels of physical activity were associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality, an observation confirmed in sensitivity analyses. Compared with those with low levels of physical activity, leisure-time (≥500 metabolic equivalent of task minutes per week) and transport-related (500–1499 and ≥1500 metabolic equivalent of task minutes per week) physical activity were associated with 70% (95% confidence interval, 3%–90%), 43% (95% confidence interval, 18%–61%), and 42% (95% confidence interval, 8%–63%) lower all-cause mortality, respectively. Conclusions: Greater levels of leisure-time and transport-related physical activity were associated with a strong reduction in the risk of all-cause mortality across different geographical sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We aimed (1) to evaluate the agreement between two methods (equation and bio‐impedance analysis [BIA]) to estimate skeletal muscle mass (SMM), and (2) to assess if SMM was associated with all‐cause mortality risk in individuals across different geographical sites in Peru. Methods: We used data from the CRONICAS Cohort Study (2010–2018), a population‐based longitudinal study in Peru to assess cardiopulmonary risk factors from different geographical settings. SMM was computed as a function of weight, height, sex and age (Lee equation) and by BIA. All‐cause mortality was retrieved from national vital records. Cox proportional‐hazard models were developed and results presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Results: At baseline, 3216 subjects, 51.5% women, mean age 55.7 years, were analysed. The mean SMM was 23.1 kg (standard deviation [SD]: 6.0) by Lee equation, and 22.7 (SD: 5.6) by BIA. Correlation between SMM estimations was strong (Pearson's ρ coefficient = 0.89, p < 0.001); whereas Bland–Altman analysis showed a small mean difference. Mean follow‐up was 7.0 (SD: 1.0) years, and there were 172 deaths. In the multivariable model, each additional kg in SMM was associated with a 19% reduction in mortality risk (HR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75–0.88) using the Lee equation, but such estimate was not significant when using BIA (HR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.94–1.03). Compared to the lowest tertile, subjects at the highest SMM tertile had a 56% reduction in risk of mortality using the Lee equation, but there was no such association when using BIA estimations. Conclusion: There is a strong correlation and agreement between SMM estimates obtained by the Lee equation and BIA. However, an association between SMM and all‐cause mortality exists only when the Lee equation is used. Our findings call for appropriate use of approaches to estimate SMM, and there should be a focus on muscle mass in promoting healthier ageing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Peru faces challenges to provide adequate care to stroke patients. Length of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality are two well-known indicators of stroke care. We aimed to describe the length of stay (LOS) of stroke in Peru, and to assess in-hospital mortality risk due to stroke, and subtypes. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used hospitalization registries coding with ICD-10 from 2002 to 2017 (N = 98,605) provided by the Ministry of Health; in-hospital mortality was available for 2016-2017 (N = 6,566). Stroke cases aged =35 years were divided into subarachnoid hemorrhage (I60), intracerebral hemorrhage (I61), cerebral infarction (I63), and stroke not specified as hemorrhage or infarction (I64). Data included stroke LOS and in-hospital mortality; socio-demographic and clinical variables. We fitted a region- and hospital level-stratified Weibull proportional hazard model to assess the in-hospital mortality. Results: The median LOS was 7 days (IQR: 4-13). Hemorrhagic strokes had median LOS longer than ischemic strokes and stroke not specified as hemorrhage or infarction (P = <0.001). The case fatality rate (CFR) of patients with stroke was 11.5% (95% CI [10-12%]). Subarachnoid hemorrhage (HR = 2.45; 95% CI [1.91-3.14]), intracerebral hemorrhage (HR = 1.95; 95% CI [1.55-2.46]), and stroke not specified as hemorrhage or infarction (HR = 1.45; 95% CI [1.16-1.81]) were associated with higher in-hospital mortality risk in comparison to ischemic strokes. Discussion: Between 2002 and 2017, LOS due to stroke has not changed in Peru in stroke patients discharged alive. Hemorrhagic cases had the longest LOS and highest in-hospital mortality risk during 2016 and 2017. The findings of our study seem to be consistent with a previous study carried out in Peru and similar to that of HIC and LMIC, also there is an increased median LOS in stroke cases managed in specialized centers. Likewise, LOS seems to depend on the type of stroke, where ischemic stroke cases have the lowest LOS. Peru needs to improve access to stroke care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political and economic crisis in Venezuela has originated an unprecedented migration. As of November 2020, 1.04 million Venezuelans have moved to Peru. Understanding their health profile is needed to identify their needs, provide care and secure resources without affecting the healthcare of nationals. We quantified the burden of multimorbidity and disability in the Venezuelan population in Peru. We analyzed the 2018 Survey of Venezuelan Population Living in Peru; population-based with random sampling survey in six cities in Peru. Participants were asked about the presence of 12 chronic conditions (self-reported); this information was grouped into 0, 1 and ≥ 2 conditions (i.e., multimorbidity). Disability was also ascertained with a self-reported questionnaire adapted from the short version of the Washington Group on Disability Statistics. Socioeconomic variables were analyzed as potential determinants. Variables were described with frequencies and 95% confidence interval (95% CI), compared with Chi2 test, and association estimates were derived with a Poisson regression reporting prevalence ratio and 95% CI. Results accounted for the complex survey design. The analysis included 7554 migrants, mean age 31.8 (SD: 10.2), 46.6% were women, 31.7% migrated alone and 5.6% had refugee status. The prevalence of multimorbidity was 0.6% (95% CI 0.4–0.9%), and was often present in women (p < 0.001), people ≥ 50 years (p < 0.001) and those without recent job (p < 0.001). The prevalence of disability was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5–2.7%), and was common among people ≥ 50 years (p < 0.001) and those without recent job (p < 0.001). Migration alone and refugee status were not associated with multimorbidity or disability. The self-reported prevalence of multimorbidity and disability in Venezuelan migrants in Peru was low, and were not strongly influenced by migration status. While these results could suggest a healthy migrant effect, the healthcare system should be prepared to deliver acute and preventive care for these migrants, while also securing primary prevention to delay the onset of chronic conditions in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To assess the association between all-cause mortality and hs-CRP, based mainly on the cumulative burden approach.Methods: Cohort study with adults ≥35 years from general population, using hs-CRP at two timepoints: at baseline and 30 months later to establish different exposures: change over time, cumulative, and weighted cumulative hs-CRP. The outcome was all-cause mortality assessed 7 years later. Cox models were generated to quantify the association.Results: Data from 3,119 participants (mean age 55.6 years, and 51.2% females), were analyzed. During follow-up, 164 (5.6%) deaths occurred over 20,314.5 person-years, indicating an overall mortality rate of 8.1 per 1,000 person-years. In multivariable model, hs-CRP at baseline was associated with high risk of mortality (HR = 1.77; 95%CI: 1.28-2.46). Similarly, hs-CRP change over time (HR = 2.50; 95%CI: 1.46-4.29), as well as cumulative and weighted cumulative hs-CRP (HR = 2.05; 95%CI: 1.31-3.20) were associated with greater risk of all-cause mortality. The weighted cumulative hs-CRP had the best goodness-of-fit for mortality prediction.Conclusions: In this cohort across diverse geographical low-resource settings, high levels of hs-CRP were strongly associated with all-cause mortality. Two measurements of hs-CRP are better than one to predict mortality, and the weighted cumulative approach had the best prognostic fit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While there is evidence about stablished risk factors (e.g., raised blood pressure) and higher mortality risk in older population, less has been explored about other functional parameters like the Timed Up and Go test and the Gait Speed in older people at low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to study these mobility tests as predictors of mortality in a population of older people in Peru.Methods: Population-based prospective cohort study (2013-2020). Random sampling of people aged 60+ years in a community of Lima, Peru. Geriatricians conducted all clinical evaluations and laboratory tests were conducted in the local hospital. Participants were sought in the national vital registration system, and we collated cause (ICD-10) and date of death. We conducted a nested forward multivariate Cox proportional hazard model to identify all potential predictors of all-cause, communicable and non-communicable diseases mortality.Results: At baseline, there were 501 older people (mean age 70.6 and 62.8% were women), complete follow-up information was available from 427 people. Mean follow-up time was 46.5 months (SD = 25.3). In multivariate models, the Timed Up and Go test was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02-1.09). For cause-specific mortality, history of heart disease (HR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.07-4.76) and age in years (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01-1.09) were predictors of non-communicable diseases mortality.Conclusions: In addition to established risk factors for mortality in older population, the Timed Up and Go test, a functional parameter, raised as a relevant predictor of all-cause mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Second-hand smoking has not been detailedly studied in Peru, where smoking is prohibited in all indoor workplaces, public places, and public transportation. Second-hand smoke exposure may occur at home or any other places. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of second-hand smoking and assess its association with hypertension and cardiovascular risk in Peru.Materials and Methods: Secondary analysis of a nationally-representative population-based survey including individuals aged 18-59 years. There were two outcomes: hypertension and 10-year cardiovascular risk using the Framingham and the 2019 World Health Organization (WHO) risk scores. The exposure was self-reported second-hand smoking during the 7 days before the survey. The association between second-hand smoking and hypertension was quantified with Poisson models reporting prevalence ratio (PR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI); the association between second-hand smoking and cardiovascular risk was quantified with linear regressions reporting coefficients and their 95% CI.Results: Data from 897 individuals, mean age: 38.2 (SD: 11.8) years, and 499 (55.7%) females, were analyzed, with 8.7% subjects reporting second-hand smoking at home and 8.3% at work or any other place. Thus, 144 (15.5%; 95% CI: 12.8%-18.6%) subjects reported any second-hand smoking. In multivariable model second-hand smoking was associated with hypertension (PR = 2.42; 95% CI: 1.25-4.67), and with 1.2% higher Framingham cardiovascular risk, and 0.2% higher 2019 WHO risk score.Conclusions: There is an association between second-hand smoking and hypertension as well as with cardiovascular risk, and 15% of adults reported second-hand smoke exposure overall with half of them exposed at home. There is a need to guarantee smoking-free places to reduce cardiovascular risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: At the population level we would expect that people with obesity undergo diabetes screening tests more often than people with overweight and much more often than people with normal weight. We described the trends of diabetes screening according to body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in Peru. Methods: Pooled analysis of health national surveys (2015–2019); men and women aged 35–70 years. We used relative frequencies to study: among those who have had a glucose test in the last year, how many there were in each BMI and WC category. We fitted a Poisson model to study whether people with high BMI or WC were more likely to have had a glucose test. Results: People with overweight (PR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.29–1.38), obesity (PR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.51–1.63) and central obesity (PR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.35–1.96) were more likely to have had a glucose test. At the sub-national level, there was one (of twenty-five) region in which men with obesity were more often screened for diabetes than men with overweight and much more than men with normal weight. There were seven regions in which women with obesity were the most often screened for diabetes. Conclusions: Consistent with a risk-based prevention approach, people with obesity would be screened for diabetes more often than those with overweight and those with normal weight. This ideal profile was only observed in few regions. Diabetes screening strategies should be strengthened and homogenised, so that they reach those at high risk of diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study assessed the relationship between urbanization and the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) in Peru. Methods: A cross‐sectional analysis of the Demographic and Health Survey (2009 to 2016) was conducted. A DBM "case" comprised a child with undernutrition and a mother with overweight/obesity. For urbanization, three indicators were used: an eight‐category variable based on district‐level population density (inhabitants/km2), a dichotomous urban/rural variable, and place of residence (countryside, towns, small cities, or capital/large cities). Results: The prevalence of DBM was lower in urban than in rural areas (prevalence ratio [PR] 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65‐0.75), and compared with the countryside, DBM was less prevalent in towns (PR 0.75; 95% CI: 0.69‐0.82), small cities (PR 0.73; 95% CI: 0.67‐0.79), and capital/large cities (PR 0.53; 95% CI: 0.46‐0.61). Using population density, the adjusted prevalence of DBM was 9.7% (95% CI: 9.4%‐10.1%) in low‐density settings (1 to 500 inhabitants/km2), 5.9% (95% CI: 4.9%‐6.8%) in mid‐urbanized settings (1,001 to 2,500 inhabitants/km2), 5.8% (95% CI: 4.5%‐7.1%) in more densely populated settings (7,501 to 10,000 inhabitants/km2), and 5.5% (95% CI: 4.1%‐7.0%) in high‐density settings (>15,000 inhabitants/km2). Conclusions: The prevalence of DBM is higher in the least‐urbanized settings such as rural and peri‐urban areas, particularly those under 2,500 inhabitants/km2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding the relationship between BMI and blood pressure requires assessing whether this association is similar or differs across population groups. This study aimed to assess the association between body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure levels, and how these associations vary between socioeconomic groups and geographical settings. Methods: Data from the National Demographic Health Survey of Peru from 2014 to 2019 was analyzed considering the complex survey design. The outcomes were levels of systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and the exposure was BMI. Exposure and outcomes were fitted as continuous variables in a non-linear quadratic regression model. We explored effect modification by six socioeconomic and geographical variables (sex, age, education level, socioeconomic position, study area, and altitude), fitting an interaction term between each of these variables and BMI. Results: Data from 159, 940 subjects, mean age 44.4 (SD: 17.1), 54.6% females, was analyzed. A third (34.0%) of individuals had =12 years of education, 24.7% were from rural areas, and 23.7% lived in areas located over 2,500 m above sea level. In the overall sample mean BMI was 27.1 (SD: 4.6) kg/m2, and mean SBP and DBP were 122.5 (SD: 17.2) and 72.3 (SD: 9.8) mmHg, respectively. In the multivariable models, greater BMI levels were associated with higher SBP (p-value < 0.001) and DBP (p-value < 0.001). There was strong evidence that sex, age, education level, and altitude were effect modifiers of the association between BMI and both SBP and DBP. In addition to these socio-demographic variables, socioeconomic position and study area were also effect modifiers of the association between BMI and DBP, but not SBP. Conclusions: The association between BMI and levels of blood pressure is not uniform on a range of socio-demographic and geographical population groups. This characterization can inform the understanding of the epidemiology and rise of blood pressure in a diversity of low-resource settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have received political attention and commitment, yet surveillance is needed to measure progress and set priorities. Building on global estimates suggesting that Peru is not on target to meet the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4, we estimated the contribution of various NCDs to the change in unconditional probability of dying from NCDs in 25 regions in Peru. Methods: Using national death registries and census data, we estimated the unconditional probability of dying between ages 30 and 69 from any and from each of the following NCDs: cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated the contribution of each NCD to the change in the unconditional probability of dying from any of these NCDs between 2006 and 2016. Results: The overall unconditional probability of dying improved for men (21.4%) and women (23.3%). Cancer accounted for 10.9% in men and 13.7% in women of the overall reduction; cardiovascular diseases also contributed substantially: 11.3% in men) and 9.8% in women. Consistently in men and women and across regions, diabetes moved in the opposite direction of the overall reduction in the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD. Diabetes contributed a rise in the unconditional probability of 3.6% in men and 2.1% in women. Conclusions: Although the unconditional probability of dying from any selected NCD has decreased, diabetes would prevent Peru from meeting international targets. Policies are needed to prevent diabetes and to strengthen healthcare to avoid diabetes-related complications and delay mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine if specific dietary patterns are associated with risk of hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high BMI in four sites in Peru. Design: We analysed dietary patterns from a cohort of Peruvian adults in four geographical settings using latent class analysis. Associations with prevalence and incidence of hypertension, T2DM and high BMI were assessed using Poisson regression and generalised linear models, adjusted for potential confounders. Setting: Four sites in Peru varying in degree of urbanisation. Participants: Adults aged ≥35 years (n 3280). Results: We identified four distinct dietary patterns corresponding to different stages of the Peruvian nutrition transition, reflected by the foods frequently consumed in each pattern. Participants consuming the 'stage 3' diet, characterised by high proportional consumption of processed foods, animal products and low consumption of vegetables, mostly consumed in the semi-urban setting, showed the highest prevalence of all health outcomes (hypertension 32·1 %; T2DM 10·7 %; high BMI 75·1 %). Those with a more traditional 'stage 1' diet characterised by potato and vegetables, mostly consumed in the rural setting, had lower prevalence of hypertension (prevalence ratio; 95 CI: 0·57; 0·43, 0·75), T2DM (0·36; 0·16, 0·86) and high BMI (0·55; 0·48, 0·63) compared with the 'stage 3' diet. Incidence of hypertension was highest among individuals consuming the 'stage 3' diet (63·75 per 1000 person-years; 95 % CI 52·40, 77·55). Conclusions: The study found more traditional diets were associated with a lower prevalence of three common chronic diseases, while prevalence of these diseases was higher with a diet high in processed foods and low in vegetables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the association between excess body fat, assessed by skinfold thickness, and the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension (HT).Design: Data from the ongoing PERU MIGRANT Study were analysed. The outcomes were T2DM and HT, and the exposure was skinfold thickness measured in bicipital, tricipital, subscapular and suprailiac areas. The Durnin-Womersley formula and SIRI equation were used for body fat percentage estimation. Risk ratios and population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated using Poisson regression.Setting: Rural (Ayacucho) and urban shantytown district (San Juan de Miraflores, Lima) in Peru.Participants: Adults (n 988) aged ≥30 years (rural, rural-to-urban migrants, urban) completed the baseline study. A total of 785 and 690 were included in T2DM and HT incidence analysis, respectively.Results: At baseline, age mean was 48·0 (sd 12·0) years and 47 % were males. For T2DM, in 7·6 (sd 1·3) years, sixty-one new cases were identified, overall incidence of 1·0 (95 % CI 0·8, 1·3) per 100 person-years. Bicipital and subscapular skinfolds were associated with 2·8-fold and 6·4-fold risk of developing T2DM. On the other hand, in 6·5 (sd 2·5) years, overall incidence of HT was 2·6 (95 % CI 2·2, 3·1) per 100 person-years. Subscapular and overall fat obesity were associated with 2·4- and 2·9-fold risk for developing HT. The PAF for subscapular skinfold was 73·6 and 39·2 % for T2DM and HT, respectively.Conclusions: We found a strong association between subscapular skinfold thickness and developing T2DM and HT. Skinfold assessment can be a laboratory-free strategy to identify high-risk HT and T2DM cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Kidney health needs to be studied in low- and middle-income countries with populations living at high altitude and undergoing urbanization. We studied whether greater level of urbanization was associated with worse kidney function and higher hemoglobin was associated with worse kidney function at high altitude. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of population-based studies in Peru including five sites at different altitude above the sea level and urbanization level (in decreasing order of urbanization): Lima (sea level), Arequipa (2335 m), urban Puno (3825 m), Tumbes (sea level), and rural Puno (3825 m). The exposures were urbanization and altitude as per study site, and hemoglobin (g/dL). The outcome was the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Results: Four thousand two hundred eight people were studied: mean age was 57.4 years (standard deviation: 12.4) and 51.9% were women. In comparison to rural Puno, eGFR was similar in Lima; in comparison to rural Puno, Arequipa, urban Puno, and Tumbes had worse eGFR, for example, in Arequipa, β = −8.07 (95% confidence interval [CI]: −10.90 to −5.24). Intermediate (β = −8.60; 95% CI: −10.55 to −6.66) and high (β = −11.21; 95% CI: −14.19 to −8.24) altitude were negatively correlated with eGFR when only urban places were analyzed. At high altitude, there was a trend for a negative association between hemoglobin and eGFR: β = −1.09 (95% CI: −2.22 to 0.04). Conclusions: Apparently, higher altitude and level of urbanization, except for one highly urbanized site, were associated with worse kidney function. Our findings suggest that some of the adverse impact of high altitude on kidney function has been balanced by the lower risk conferred by rural environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The underlying cause of death is used to study country and global mortality trends and profiles. The final cause of death could also inform the ultimately cause of death in individuals with underlying conditions. Whether there is a pattern between the underlying and final cause of death has not been explored using national death registries. We studied what final causes of death were most common among selected underlying causes using national death registries in Peru, 2015. Methods: Underlying and final causes of death were classified according to their ICD-10 codes. Underlying causes included chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hypertension (HTN), diabetes, and selected cancers (cervix, breast, stomach, prostate, and lung). Final causes were categorized as: communicable, cardiovascular, and cancers. Descriptive statistics were used. Results: A total of 77,065 death registries were analyzed; cases had a mean age of 69.4 (SD: 19.3) years at death and were mostly men (53.9%). When the underlying cause was HTN, the most frequent final cause was cardiovascular diseases (82.3%). For all the other underlying causes, the most frequent final cause was communicable diseases: COPD (86.4%), CKD (79.3%), cancer (76.5%), and diabetes (68.3%). Conclusions: In four selected underlying causes of death there was a divergence with respect to the final cause, suggesting there was a shift from non-communicable to communicable causes. Although efforts should be deployed to prevent underlying non-communicable diseases, potential communicable complications should not be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the association between consumption of snacks and sweetened beverages and risk of overweight among children.Design: Secondary analysis of the Young Lives cohort study in Peru.Setting: Twenty sentinel sites from a total of 1818 districts available in Peru.Subjects: Children in the younger cohort of the Young Lives study in Peru, specifically those included in the third (2009) and the fourth (2013) rounds.Results: A total of 1813 children were evaluated at baseline; 49·2 % girls and mean age 8·0 (sd 0·3) years. At baseline, 3·3 (95 % CI 2·5, 4·2) % reported daily sweetened beverage consumption, while this proportion was 3·9 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·9) % for snacks. Baseline prevalence of overweight was 22·0 (95 % CI 20·1, 23·9) %. Only 1414 children were followed for 4·0 (sd 0·1) years, with an overweight incidence of 3·6 (95 % CI 3·1, 4·1) per 100 person-years. In multivariable analysis, children who consumed sweetened beverages and snacks daily had an average weight increase of 2·29 (95 % CI 0·62, 3·96) and 2·04 (95 % CI 0·48, 3·60) kg more, respectively, than those who never consumed these products, in approximately 4 years of follow-up. Moreover, there was evidence of an association between daily consumption of sweetened beverages and risk of overweight (relative risk=2·12; 95 % CI 1·05, 4·28).Conclusions: Daily consumption of sweetened beverages and snacks was associated with increased weight gain v. never consuming these products; and in the case of sweetened beverages, with higher risk of developing overweight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) represents a great burden for the patient and the health system, particularly if diagnosed at late stages. Consequently, tools to identify patients at high risk of having CKD are needed, particularly in limited-resources settings where laboratory facilities are scarce. This study aimed to develop a risk score for prevalent undiagnosed CKD using data from four settings in Peru: a complete risk score including all associated risk factors and another excluding laboratory-based variables.Methods: Cross-sectional study. We used two population-based studies: one for developing and internal validation (CRONICAS), and another (PREVENCION) for external validation. Risk factors included clinical- and laboratory-based variables, among others: sex, age, hypertension and obesity; and lipid profile, anemia and glucose metabolism. The outcome was undiagnosed CKD: eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m2. We tested the performance of the risk scores using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive/negative predictive values and positive/negative likelihood ratios.Results: Participants in both studies averaged 57.7 years old, and over 50% were females. Age, hypertension and anemia were strongly associated with undiagnosed CKD. In the external validation, at a cut-off point of 2, the complete and laboratory-free risk scores performed similarly well with a ROC area of 76.2% and 76.0%, respectively (P = 0.784). The best assessment parameter of these risk scores was their negative predictive value: 99.1% and 99.0% for the complete and laboratory-free, respectively.Conclusions: The developed risk scores showed a moderate performance as a screening test. People with a score of ≥ 2 points should undergo further testing to rule out CKD. Using the laboratory-free risk score is a practical approach in developing countries where laboratories are not readily available and undiagnosed CKD has significant morbidity and mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most of the data regarding the burden of hypertension in low-income and middle-income countries comes from cross-sectional surveys instead of longitudinal studies. We estimated the incidence of, and risk factors for, hypertension in four study sites with different degree of urbanisation and altitude.Methods: Data from the CRONICAS Cohort Study, conducted in urban, semiurban and rural areas in Peru, was used. An age-stratified and sex-stratified random sample of participants was taken from the most updated census available in each site. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or self-report physician diagnosis and current treatment. The exposures were study site and altitude as well as modifiable risk factors. Incidence, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), 95% CIs and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were estimated using generalised linear models.Results: Information from 3237 participants, mean age 55.8 (SD±12.7) years, 48.4% males, was analysed. Overall baseline prevalence of hypertension was 19.7% (95% CI 18.4% to 21.1%). A total of 375 new cases of hypertension were recorded, including 5266 person-years of follow-up, with an incidence of 7.12 (95% CI 6.44 to 7.88) per 100 person-years. Individuals from semiurban site were at higher risk of hypertension compared with highly urbanised areas (IRR=1.76; 95% CI 1.39 to 2.23); however, those from high-altitude sites had a reduced risk (IRR=0.74; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.95). Obesity was the leading risk factor for hypertension with a great variation according to study site with PAF ranging from 12.5% to 42.4%.Conclusions: Our results suggest heterogeneity in the progression towards hypertension depending on urbanisation and site altitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The study aims were to estimate the incidence and risk factors for T2D in four settings with different degree of urbanization and altitude in Peru.Methods: Prospective cohort study conducted in urban, semi-urban, and rural areas in Peru. An age- and sex-stratified random sample of participants was taken from the most updated census. T2D was defined as fasting blood glucose ⩾7.0mmol/L or taking anti-diabetes medication. Exposures were divided into two groups: geographical variables (urbanization and altitude), and modifiable risk factors. Incidence, relative risks (RR), 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), and population attributable fractions (PAF) were estimated.Results: Data from 3135 participants, 48.8% males, mean age 55.6years, was analyzed. Overall baseline prevalence of T2D was 7.1% (95%CI 6.2-8.0%). At follow-up, including 6207 person-years of follow-up, a total of 121 new T2D cases were accrued, equating to an incidence of 1.95 (95%CI 1.63-2.33) per 100 person-years. There was no urban to rural gradient in the T2D incidence; however, compared to sea level sites, participants living in high altitude had a higher incidence of diabetes (RR=1.58; 95%CI 1.01-2.48). Obesity had the highest attributable risk for developing T2D, although results varied by setting, ranging from 14% to 80% depending on urbanization and altitude.Conclusions: Our results suggest that the incidence of T2D was greater in high altitude sites. New cases of diabetes were largely attributed to obesity, but with substantial variation in the contribution of obesity depending on the environment. These findings can inform appropriate context-specific strategies to reduce the incidence of diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. To assess obesity risk among mothers participating in Community Kitchens and children participating in Glass of Milk (Peru food assistance programs). Methods. We analyzed prospective data from the Young Lives study. The exposure consisted in varying degrees of benefit from any of the programs (no participation in any of the programs, program participation forsome months, or program participation nearly every month) at baseline (2006-2007). The outcome was overweight and obesity in mothers and children at follow-up (2009-2010). Results. Prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity was 15.5% and 5.1%, respectively; the corresponding figures for mothers were 40.5% and 14.6%. Children exposed nearly every month to the Glass of Milk program had a 65% lower risk of becoming obese compared with children not participating in the program (relative risk [RR] = 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.18, 0.66). Mothers participating frequently in the Community Kitchens program had almost twice the risk of becoming obese compared with those who did not participate (RR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.18, 3.15). Conclusions. Participating in food assistance programs in Peru was associated with a lower risk of obesity in children and greater risk of obesity inmothers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human capital requires opportunities to develop and capacity to overcome challenges, together with an enabling environment that fosters critical and disruptive innovation. Exploring such features is necessary to establish the foundation of solid long-term partnerships. In this paper we describe the experience of the CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, based at Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru, as a case study for fostering meaningful and sustainable partnerships for international collaborative research. The CRONICAS Centre of Excellence in Chronic Diseases was established in 2009 with the following Mission: "We support the development of young researchers and collaboration with national and international institutions. Our motivation is to improve population's health through high quality research." The Centre's identity is embedded in its core values - generosity, innovation, integrity, and quality- and its trajectory is a result of various interactions between multiple individuals, collaborators, teams, and institutions, which together with the challenges confronted, enables us to make an objective assessment of the partnership we would like to pursue, nurture and support. We do not intend to provide a single example of a successful partnership, but in contrast, to highlight what can be translated into opportunities to be faced by research groups based in low- and middle-income countries, and how these encounters can provide a strong platform for fruitful and sustainable partnerships. In defiant contexts, partnerships require to be nurtured and sustained. Acknowledging that all partnerships are not and should not be the same, we also need to learn from the evolution of such relationships, its key successes, hurdles and failures to contribute to the promotion of a culture of global solidarity where mutual goals, mutual gains, as well as mutual responsibilities are the norm. In so doing, we will all contribute to instil a new culture where expectations, roles and interactions among individuals and their teams are horizontal, the true nature of partnerships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background It is important to understand the local burden of non-communicable diseases including within- country heterogeneity. The aim of this study was to characterise hypertension and type-2 diabetes profiles across different Peruvian geographical settings emphasising the assessment of modifiable risk factors. Methods Analysis of the CRONICAS Cohort Study baseline assessment was conducted. Cardiometabolic outcomes were blood pressure categories (hypertension, prehypertension, normal) and glucose metabolism disorder status (diabetes, prediabetes, normal). Exposures were study setting and six modifiable factors (smoking, alcohol drinking, leisure time and transport- related physical activity levels, TV watching, fruit/vegetables intake and obesity). Poisson regression models were used to report prevalence ratios (PR). Population attributable risks (PAR) were also estimated. Results Data from 3238 participants, 48.3% male, mean age 45.3 years, were analysed. Age-standardised (WHO population) prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension was 24% and 16%, whereas for prediabetes and type-2 diabetes it was 18% and 6%, respectively. Outcomes varied according to study setting (p<0.001). In multivariable model, hypertension was higher among daily smokers (PR 1.76), heavy alcohol drinkers (PR 1.61) and the obese (PR 2.06); whereas only obesity (PR 2.26) increased the prevalence of diabetes. PAR showed that obesity was an important determinant for hypertension (15.7%) and type-2 diabetes (23.9%). Conclusions There is an evident heterogeneity in the prevalence of and risk factors for hypertension and diabetes within Peru. Prehypertension and prediabetes are highly prevalent across settings. Our results emphasise the need of understanding the epidemiology of cardiometabolic conditions to appropriately implement interventions to tackle the burden of non-communicable diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality among 3 distinct groups: within-country, rural-to-urban migrants, and rural and urban dwellers in a longitudinal cohort in Peru. Methods The PERU MIGRANT Study, a longitudinal cohort study, used an age-stratified and sex-stratified random sample of urban dwellers in a shanty town community in the capital city of Peru, rural dwellers in the Andes, and migrants from the Andes to the shanty town community. Participants underwent a questionnaire and anthropomorphic measurements at a baseline evaluation in 2007-2008 and at a follow-up visit in 2012-2013. Mortality was determined by death certificate or family interview. Results Of the 989 participants evaluated at baseline, 928 (94%) were evaluated at follow-up (mean age 48 years; 53% female). The mean follow-up time was 5.1 years, totalling 4732.8 person-years. In a multivariable survival model, and relative to urban dwellers, migrant participants had lower all cause mortality (HR=0.30; 95% CI 0.12-0.78), and both the migrant (HR=0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.41) and rural (HR=0.06; 95% CI 0.01-0.62) groups had lower cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Cardiovascular mortality of migrants remains similar to that of the rural group, suggesting that rural-to-urban migrants do not appear to catch up with urban mortality in spite of having a more urban cardiovascular risk factor profile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to describe the patterns of nutritional status and sleep duration in children from Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam; to assess the association between short sleep duration and overweight and obesity, and if this was similar among boys and girls in Peru. Methods and Findings: Analysis of the Young Lives Study, younger cohort, third round. In Ethiopia there were 1,999 observations, 2,011, 2,052 and 2,000 in India, Peru and Vietnam, respectively. Analyses included participants with complete data for sleep duration, BMI, sex and age; missing data: 5.9% (Ethiopia), 4.1% (India), 6.0% (Peru) and 4.5% (Vietnam). Exposure was sleep duration per day: short (<10 hours) versus regular (10–11 hours). Outcome was overweight and obesity. Multivariable analyses were conducted using a hierarchical approach to assess the effect of variables at different levels. Overweight/obesity prevalence was 0.5%/0.2% (Ethiopia), 1.3%/0.3% (India), 6.1%/2.8% (Vietnam), and 15.8%/5.4% (Peru). Only Peruvian data was considered to explore the association between short sleep duration and overweight and obesity, with 1,929 children, aged 7.9±0.3 years, 50.3% boys. Short and regular sleep duration was 41.6% and 55.6%, respectively. Multivariable models showed that obesity was 64% more prevalent among children with short sleep duration, an estimate that lost significance after controlling for individual- and family-related variables (PR: 1.15; 95%CI: 0.81–1.64). Gender was an effect modifier of the association between short sleep duration and overweight (p = 0.030) but not obesity (p = 0.533): the prevalence ratio was greater than one across all the models for boys, yet it was less than one for girls. Conclusions: Childhood overweight and obesity have different profiles across developing settings. In a sample of children living in resource-limited settings in Peru there is no association between short sleep duration and obesity; the crude association was slightly attenuated by children-related variables but strongly diminished by family-related variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine de number of self-perceived skills related to biomedical research and the proportion of students interested in devoting his career to research and identify the factors associated to such interest in first-year medical students of a private university in Lima, Peru. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analytic study in first-year medical students of Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, enrolled in 2011. We used a self-applied, anonymous, questionnaire, which was previously tested and validated by experts, to assess the number of self-reported research-related skills, and the intention to pursue a research-oriented career. Results: The response proportion was 100% (143 students). The median number of self-perceived skills was 2.0 (7.0 possible). Statistical analysis and sample size calculation were the less frequent skills reported. The 71.2% of students reported intending to pursue research as a career. After adjusting for gender, age, admission modality and development of research at school, student characteristics associated to such intention included a greater age and the plan to involve in research late in their career. Conclusions: Although self-perceived level of skills for research in first year medical students is limited, they have a significant interest in engaging in research, constituting a potential source of human resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. The objective of this study is to evaluate the information quality about pregnancy symptoms in Spanish available in the internet. Materials and methods. This is an analytic, cross-sectional study. In order to evaluate the selected websites, we used a methodology previously validated by Curró et al. The websites were selected from Google, MSN.com and yahoo.com. The quality evaluation included three components: medical contents, accountability and usability of the website. The medical content was compared with the data available in the national guidelines for Comprehensive Sexual and Reproductive Health, from the Peruvian Ministry of Health. Results. Ninety nine websites in Spanish were evaluated. from them, 26.3% had medium adherence to the gold standard document. In 37.4% the websites were of low quality. A total of 24.2% were blogs, they were associated (as a protrective factor) to sites of poor quality (OR: 0.1, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.5). Conclusions. The majority of websites in Spanish related to pregnancy symptoms have low quality. These findings indicate the need to properly educate patients and general public, and a critical evaluation of the information quality found at the Internet as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nicolaou, Laura, Anne Steinberg, Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco, Stella Hartinger, Andres G. Lescano, and William Checkley. Living at high altitude and COVID-19 mortality in Peru. High Alt Med Biol. 23:146–158, 2022. Background: Previous studies have reported a lower severity of COVID-19 infections at higher altitudes; however, this association may be confounded by various factors. We examined the association between living at altitude and COVID-19 mortality in Peru adjusting for population density, prevalence of comorbidities, indicators of socioeconomic status, and health care access. Methods: Utilizing administrative data across 196 provinces located at varying altitudes (sea level to 4,373 m), we conducted a two-stage analysis of COVID-19 deaths between March 19 and December 31, 2020, Peru's first wave. We first calculated cumulative daily mortality rate for each province and fit lognormal cumulative distribution functions to estimate total mortality rate, and start, peak, and duration of the first wave. We then regressed province-level total mortality rate, start, peak, and duration of the first wave as a function of altitude adjusted for confounders. Results: There were 93,528 recorded deaths from COVID-19 (mean age 66.5 years, 64.5% male) for a cumulative mortality of 272.5 per 100,000 population between March 19 and December 31, 2020. We did not find a consistent monotonic trend between living at higher altitudes and estimated total mortality rate for provinces at 500 − 1,000 m (−12.1 deaths per 100,000 population per 100 m, 95% familywise confidence interval −27.7 to 3.5) or > 1,000 m (−0.3, −2.7 to 2.0). We also did not find consistent monotonic trends for the start, peak, and duration of the first wave beyond the first 500 m. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that living at high altitude may not confer a lower risk of death from COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Body mass index (BMI) has increased in Latin-America, but the implications for the diabetes burden have not been quantified. We estimated the proportion and absolute number of diabetes cases attributable to high BMI in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru (Andean Latin-America), with estimation of region-level indicators in Peru.Methods: We estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) of BMI on diabetes (regardless of type 1 or 2) from 1980 to 2014, including the number of cases attributable to overweight (BMI 25-<30), class I (30-<35), class II (BMI 35-<40) and class III (BMI ≥ 40) obesity. We used age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates of diabetes and BMI categories (NCD-RisC and Peru's DHS survey) combined with relative risks from population-based cohorts in Peru.Findings: Across Andean Latin-America in 2014, there were 1,258,313 diabetes cases attributable to high BMI: 209,855 in Bolivia, 367,440 in Ecuador and 681,018 in Peru. Between 1980 and 2010, the absolute proportion of diabetes cases attributable to class I obesity increased the most (from 12.9% to 27.2%) across the region. The second greatest increase was for class II obesity (from 3.6% to 16.5%). There was heterogeneity in the fraction of diabetes cases attributable to high BMI by region in Peru, as coastal regions had the largest fractions, and so did high-income regions.Interpretation: Over one million diabetes cases are attributable to high BMI in Andean Latin-America. Public health efforts should focus on implementing population-based interventions to reduce high BMI and to develop focused interventions targeted at those at highest risk of diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented in response to the labor strikes by physician educators in Peru which result in the suspension of medical education and training.

Background: In the Peruvian Amazon, Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission is maintained due to the high frequency of recurrences. By understanding the recurrence rates of submicroscopic and asymptomatic cases, we can develop informed strategies to prevent transmission more efficiently and disrupt the silent transmission cycle., Methods: A three-year, population-based cohort study was conducted in two sites, Cahuide and Lupuna, within the Loreto region in Peru from 2013 to 2015. The study included 385 individuals and aimed to examine the temporal dynamics of malaria recurrences and their impact on transmission and control., Results: Individuals from Lupuna presented a higher risk of P. vivax infections compared to Cahuide, where most recurrences were asymptomatic and submicroscopic. It is estimated that a great proportion of these recurrences were due to relapses in both communities. The application of molecular diagnostic method proved to be significantly more effective, detecting 2.3 times more episodes during the follow-up (PCR, 1068; microscopy, 467). PCR identified recurrences significantly earlier, at 151 days after an initial infection, compared to microscopy, which detected them on average after 365 days. Community, occupation and previous malaria infections were factors associated with recurrences. Finally, potential infection evolution scenarios were described where one frequent scenario involved the transition from symptomatic to asymptomatic infections with a mean evolution time of 240 days., Conclusions: This study explores the contrast in malaria recurrence risk among individuals from two endemic settings, a consequence of prolonged exposure to the parasite. Through the analysis of the evolution scenarios of P. vivax recurrences, it is possible to have a more complete vision of how the transmission pattern changes over time and is conditioned by different factors., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Garcia Castillo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Examining trajectories of undernutrition and overnutrition separately limits understanding of the double burden of malnutrition. We investigated transitions between normal, stunting, overweight and concurrent stunting and overweight (CSO) and associations with sociodemographic factors in children and adolescents., Methods: We used data from the Young Lives cohort in India, Peru and Vietnam, which follow children 1-15 (N = 5413) and 8-22 years (N = 2225) over five rounds between 2002 and 2016. We estimated transitions between nutritional states using a Markov chain model and estimated sociodemographic associations employing a logit parametrization., Results: Transitions into stunting peaked in ages 1-5 years (India: 22.9%, Peru: 17.6%, Vietnam: 14.8%), while stunting reversal was highest during adolescence across all countries. Transitions into overweight peaked in ages 19-22, while overweight reversal increased in ages 1-5 and 12-15 years. Transitions away from stunting to overweight were rare; more commonly, stunted individuals developed overweight while remaining stunted, leading to a CSO state. In Peru, 20.2% of 19-year-olds who were stunted reached CSO by age 22, with 4% shifting from stunted to overweight. Reversion to a normal state is least likely for those in a CSO state. Household wealth gradually reduced the likelihood of transitioning into stunting [odds ratios (ORs) for wealthiest quartile in Peru: 0.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.20-0.41; India: 0.43, 95% CI 0.32-0.57; Vietnam: 0.36, 95% CI 0.26-0.50), with stunting reversal only being more likely in the two wealthiest quartiles across all countries (ORs for wealthiest quartile in Peru: 2.39, 95% CI 1.57-3.65; India: 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.54; Vietnam: 1.89, 95% CI 1.23-2.91). In Vietnam, only the richest quartile was at higher risk of transitioning into overweight (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.28-2.72), while in Peru and India, the risk gradually rose across all wealth quartiles (ORs for wealthiest quartile in Peru: 2.84, 95% CI 2.14-3.77; India: 2.99, 95% CI 1.61-5.54)., Conclusions: Childhood and adolescence represent critical periods for prevention and reversal of stunting and overweight, thereby averting the development of CSO later in life. Context-specific interventions are crucial for preventing disparate transitions towards the double burden of malnutrition across socioeconomic groups., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

This study aimed to estimate the population-based Parkinson disease prevalence, and to explore potentially associated factors and conditions. A population-based survey was conducted in Northern Peru. Symptoms compatible with Parkinson's were defined using a validated Spanish questionnaire (≥ 42 points suggest Parkinson's). Potential factors (e.g., age, sex, etc.) and clinical conditions (e.g., depressive symptoms, perceived stress, etc.) associated with Parkinson's were assessed. In total, 1,609 subjects were included, mean age of participants was 48.2 (SD: 10.6), and 810 (50.3%) were women. Parkinson's prevalence was 1.6% (95%CI: 1.0; 2.4). Those aged ≥ 55 years, and those who reported using wood as fuel for household cooking had a Parkinson's prevalence from 3.5 to 4 times greater than those who did not. The presence of depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, perceived stress, poor sleep quality, and cognitive impairment was more common among those with Parkinson's, and quality of life in these participants was lower than those without Parkinson's. In conclusion, 1.6% of the population shows symptoms compatible with Parkinson's. Age and use of wood for household cooking were factors associated with Parkinson's. Several mental health conditions and lower quality of life were more frequent among those with Parkinson's. Appropriate strategies are required to detect, prevent, and manage Parkinson's cases.

Background: The long-term impact of elevated blood pressure on mortality outcomes has been recently revisited due to proposed changes in cut-offs for hypertension. This study aimed at assessing the association between high blood pressure levels and 10-year mortality using the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC-7) and the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2017 blood pressure guidelines., Methods: Data analysis of the PERU MIGRANT Study, a prospective ongoing cohort, was used. The outcome of interest was 10-year all-cause mortality, and exposures were blood pressure categories according to the JNC-7 and ACC/AHA 2017 guidelines. Log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were used to assess the associations of interest controlling for confounders. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated., Results: A total of 976 records, mean age of 60.4 (SD: 11.4), 513 (52.6%) women, were analyzed. Hypertension prevalence at baseline almost doubled from 16.0% (95% CI 13.7%-18.4%) to 31.3% (95% CI 28.4%-34.3%), using the JNC-7 and ACC/AHA 2017 definitions, respectively. Sixty-three (6.4%) participants died during the 10-year follow-up, equating to a mortality rate of 3.6 (95% CI 2.4-4.7) per 1000 person-years. Using JNC-7, and compared to those with normal blood pressure, those with pre-hypertension and hypertension had 2.1-fold and 5.1-fold increased risk of death, respectively. Similar mortality effect sizes were estimated using ACC/AHA 2017 for stage-1 and stage-2 hypertension., Conclusions: Blood pressure levels under two different definitions increased the risk of 10-year all-cause mortality. Hypertension prevalence doubled using ACC/AHA 2017 compared to JNC-7. The choice of blood pressure cut-offs to classify hypertension categories need to be balanced against the patients benefit and the capacities of the health system to adequately handle a large proportion of new patients., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2023 Hidalgo-Benites A et al.)

Objective: To determine the agreement between the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk predictions computed with the WHO non-laboratory-based model and laboratory-based model in a nationally representative sample of Peruvian adults., Design: Cross-sectional analysis of a national health survey., Methods: Absolute CVD risk was computed with the 2019 WHO laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models. The risk predictions from both models were compared with Bland-Altman plots, Lin's concordance coefficient correlation (LCCC), and kappa statistics, stratified by sex, age, body mass index categories, smoking and diabetes status., Results: 663 people aged 30-59 years were included in the analysis. Overall, there were no substantial differences between the mean CVD risk computed with the laboratory-based model 2.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%) and the non-laboratory-based model 2.0% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.1%). In the Bland-Altman plots, the limits of agreement were the widest among people with diabetes (-0.21; 4.37) compared with people without diabetes (-1.17; 0.95). The lowest agreement as per the LCCC was also seen in people with diabetes (0.74 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.82)), the same was observed with the kappa statistic (kappa=0.36). In general, agreement between the scores was appropriate in terms of clinical significance., Conclusions: The absolute cardiovascular predicted risk was similar between the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based 2019 WHO cardiovascular risk models. Pending validation from longitudinal studies, the non-laboratory-based model (instead of the laboratory-based) could be used when assessing CVD risk in Peruvian population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Epidermolysis bullosa (EB) is a complex and heterogeneous dermatological disease. Four main types of EB have been described, each of them with distinct characteristics: EB simplex (EBS), dystrophic EB (DEB), junctional EB (JEB) and Kindler EB (KEB). Each main type varies in its manifestations, severity, and genetic abnormality., Methods: We sought mutations in 19 genes known to cause EB and 10 genes associated with other dermatologic diseases in 35 Peruvian pediatric patients of a rich Amerindian genetic background. Whole exome sequencing and bioinformatics analysis was performed., Results: Thirty-four of 35 families revealed an EB mutation. Dystrophic EB was the most frequently diagnosed type, with 19 (56%) patients, followed by EBS (35%), JEB (6%), and KEB (3%). We found 37 mutations in seven genes; 27 (73%) were missense mutations; 22 (59%) were novel mutations. Five cases changed their initial diagnosis of EBS. Four were reclassified as DEB and one as JEB. Inspection into other non-EB genes revealed a variant, c.7130C&gt;A, in the gene FLGR2, which was present in 31 of the 34 patients (91%)., Conclusion: We were able to confirm and identify pathological mutations in 34 of 35 patients.

The 1990s saw the rapid reemergence of malaria in Amazonia, where it remains an important public health priority in South America. The Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR) was designed to take a multidisciplinary approach toward identifying novel malaria control and elimination strategies. Based on geographically and epidemiologically distinct sites in the Northeastern Peruvian and Western Brazilian Amazon regions, synergistic projects integrate malaria epidemiology, vector biology, and immunology. The Amazonian ICEMR's overarching goal is to understand how human behavior and other sociodemographic features of human reservoirs of transmission-predominantly asymptomatically parasitemic people-interact with the major Amazonian malaria vector, Nyssorhynchus (formerly Anopheles) darlingi, and with human immune responses to maintain malaria resilience and continued endemicity in a hypoendemic setting. Here, we will review Amazonian ICEMR's achievements on the synergies among malaria epidemiology, Plasmodium-vector interactions, and immune response, and how those provide a roadmap for further research, and, most importantly, point toward how to achieve malaria control and elimination in the Americas.

Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been used in clinical medicine (eg, X-rays classification). Whether CNNs could inform the epidemiology of COVID-19 classifying street images according to COVID-19 risk is unknown, yet it could pinpoint high-risk places and relevant features of the built environment. In a feasibility study, we trained CNNs to classify the area surrounding bus stops (Lima, Peru) into moderate or extreme COVID-19 risk., Design: CNN analysis based on images from bus stops and the surrounding area. We used transfer learning and updated the output layer of five CNNs: NASNetLarge, InceptionResNetV2, Xception, ResNet152V2 and ResNet101V2. We chose the best performing CNN, which was further tuned. We used GradCam to understand the classification process., Setting: Bus stops from Lima, Peru. We used five images per bus stop., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Bus stop images were classified according to COVID-19 risk into two labels: moderate or extreme., Results: NASNetLarge outperformed the other CNNs except in the recall metric for the moderate label and in the precision metric for the extreme label; the ResNet152V2 performed better in these two metrics (85% vs 76% and 63% vs 60%, respectively). The NASNetLarge was further tuned. The best recall (75%) and F1 score (65%) for the extreme label were reached with data augmentation techniques. Areas close to buildings or with people were often classified as extreme risk., Conclusions: This feasibility study showed that CNNs have the potential to classify street images according to levels of COVID-19 risk. In addition to applications in clinical medicine, CNNs and street images could advance the epidemiology of COVID-19 at the population level., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is a chronic condition with a high disease burden worldwide, and individuals with T2DM often have other morbidities. Understanding the local multimorbidity profile of patients with T2DM will inform precision medicine and public health, so that tailored interventions can be offered according to the different profiles., Methods: An analysis was conducted of electronic health records (2016-2021) in one hospital in Lima, Peru. Based on ICD-10 codes and the available measurements (e.g., body mass index), we identified all T2DM cases and quantified the frequency of the most common comorbidities (those in ≥1% of the sample). We also conducted k-means analysis that was informed by the most frequent comorbidities, to identify clusters of patients with T2DM and other chronic conditions., Results: There were 9582 individual records with T2DM (mean age 58.6 years, 61.5% women). The most frequent chronic conditions were obesity (29.4%), hypertension (18.8%), dyslipidemia (11.3%), hypothyroidism (6.4%), and arthropathy (3.6%); and 51.6% had multimorbidity: 32.8% had only one, 14.1% had two, and 4.7% had three or more extra chronic conditions in addition to T2DM. The cluster analysis revealed four unique groups: T2DM with no other chronic disease, T2DM with obesity only, T2DM with hypertension but without obesity, and T2DM with all other chronic conditions., Conclusions: More than one in two people with T2DM had multimorbidity. Obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidemia were the most common chronic conditions that were associated with T2DM. Four clusters of chronic morbidities were found, signaling mutually exclusive profiles of patients with T2DM according to their multimorbidity profile.

Background: There is limited information regarding the variation of the cardiovascular (CV) risk, that combines multiple risk factors in one metric, according to urbanization and altitude., Objective: To assess and disentangle the potential association between urbanization and altitude with absolute CV risk using Peruvian nationally representative surveys., Methods: Pooled analysis of Peruvian Demographic Health Surveys (from 2014 to 2020), including subjects aged between 40 and 74 years, was conducted. The outcome of interest was the 10-year predicted absolute CV risk based on the non-laboratory version of the World Health Organization (WHO) and split into <10% and ≥10%. The exposures were urbanization (rural or urban) and altitude (<500 meters above the sea level [m.a.s.l.], between 500 and 2,499 m.a.s.l, between 2,500 and 3,499 m.a.s.l., and ≥3,500 m.a.s.l.). Crude and adjusted Poisson regression models were built to assess the associations of interest, reporting prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI)., Results: Data of 80,409 subjects, mean age 54.3 (SD: 8.8) and 42,640 (54.4%) females were analyzed. Regarding urbanization, 30,722 (25.4%) subjects were from rural areas, and 60.6% lives at <500 m.a.s.l., whereas only 9.3% lives at ≥3500 m.a.s.l. The 10-year predicted absolute CV risk mean was 4.5% (SD: 3.1), and 7.8% had a CV risk ≥10%. In multivariable model, urbanization, mainly rurality (PR = 0.89; 95%CI: 0.81-0.97) and altitude (PR = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.75-0.90 for those living between 2,500-3,490 m.a.s.l. and PR = 0.68; 95%CI: 0.60-0.76 for those living ≥3,500 m.a.s.l) were factors independently associated with CV risk. Urbanization was an effect modifier of the association between altitude and CV risk with a greater effect in urban settings., Conclusion: Urbanization, specifically rurality, and high-altitude, mainly ≥2,500 m.a.s.l., were factors independently associated with lower predicted CV risk., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s).)

Objective.: This study aimed to assess the trends of different smoking indicators among Peruvian adolescents. Additionally, we evaluated whether such trends were different by sex or among those without previous smoking history., Materials and Methods.: We analyzed the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (Global Youth Tobacco Survey 2007, 2014, 2019). Active smoking was defined according to smoking in the last 30 days. Passive smoking was assessed based on exposure to tobacco inside and outside the household, both overall and daily. Analyses considered the sample design., Results.: A total of 17,047 records (9,869 in 2007, 3,424 in 2014, and 3,754 in 2019) were analyzed; the mean age was 14 years, and 49.9% were women. Previous smoking history was reported in 26.6% of the records; such prevalence fell from 45.2% (2007), to 25.3% (2014), and to 19.4% (2019, p-value for trend < 0.001), whereas active smoking fell from 17.1% (2007) to 8.7% (2014) and to 5.7% (2019). The overall prevalence of passive smoking inside the household fell from 24.7% to 12.9% and 10.4% (p-value <0.001), whereas the overall prevalence of passive smoking outside the household dropped from 46.3% to 39.4% and 36.3% (p-value <0.001) during the same period. The reduction of the smoking indicators was observed mainly among women than in men., Conclusion.: There is evidence of a sustained reduction in smoking indicators in Peruvian adolescents. Passive smoking outside the household continues to be common, calling for strengthening current tobacco control policies.

High consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) is associated with a high risk of non-communicable diseases. Evidence of SSB consumption is needed to inform SSB-related policies, especially in countries with a high consumption, such as Peru. Using data from Peru's National Health Survey conducted in 2017-2018, the consumption of homemade and ready-to-drink SSB was estimated from a single 24 h dietary recall, accounting for socio-demographic and health-related variables. Regression models were fitted to assess which variables were linked to a high/low SSB consumption. There were 913 people and mean age was 37.7 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 36.9-38.6). Mean consumption (8 oz servings/day) of homemade SSB (1.2) doubled that of ready-to-drink SSB (0.5). The intake of homemade and ready-to-drink SSB was higher in men (1.3 and 0.7) than women (1.1 and 0.3). The intake of ready-to-drink SSB was higher in urban (0.6) compared to rural (0.2) populations. People aware of having diabetes had a lower consumption of both ready-to-drink (0.9 vs. 0.4) and homemade SSB (1.3 vs. 0.8) than those unaware of having diabetes. Male sex and living in urban locations were associated with higher ready-to-drink SSB intake. Older age was associated with a higher intake of homemade SSB. Amongst Peruvian adults, the consumption of SSB products (particularly homemade) remains high. Population-wide interventions should also aim to improve awareness of the nutritional components of homemade beverages.

Objective: To estimate the association between the aggregation and pair-wise combination of selected cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and 10-year all-cause mortality., Methods: Secondary data analysis of the PERU MIGRANT study, a prospective population-based cohort. Ten-year all-cause mortality was determined for participants originally enrolled in the PERU MIGRANT Study (baseline in 2007) through the National Registry of Identification and Civil Status. The CVRF included hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and overweight/obesity. Exposures were composed of both the aggregation of the selected CVRF (one, two, and three or more CVRF) and pair-wise combinations of CVRF. Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI)., Findings: Of the 989 participants evaluated at baseline, 976 (98.8%) had information about vital status at 10 years of follow-up (9992.63 person-years), and 63 deaths were recorded. In the multivariable model, adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables, participants with two CVRF (HR: 2.48, 95% CI: 1.03-5.99), and those with three or more CVRF (HR: 3.93, 95% CI: 1.21-12.74) had higher all-cause mortality risk, compared to those without any CVRF. The pair-wise combinations associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality, compared to those without such comorbidities, were hypertension with type 2 diabetes (HR: 11.67, 95% CI: 3.67-37.10), and hypertension with overweight/obesity (HR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.18-6.71)., Conclusions: The aggregation of two or more CVRF and the combination of hypertension with type 2 diabetes or overweight/obesity were associated with an increased risk of 10-year all-cause mortality. These risk profiles will inform primary and secondary prevention strategies to delay mortality from cardiovascular risk factors., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: . To determine the prevalence and incidence of arterial hypertension, as well as the prevalence of previous diagnosis of arterial hypertension (self-reported) among the adult population of Peru., Materials and Methods.: Systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies available in LILACS, EMBASE, MEDLINE and Global Health. Studies were included if they followed a random sampling approach in adult population. Screening and assessment of manuscripts was carried out independently by two researchers. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to quantify the overall prevalence and incidence of hypertension. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to assess the risk of bias in the manuscripts., Results.: A total of 903 papers were screened, and only 15 were included in the estimation of hypertension prevalence, 8 in the assessment of previous hypertension diagnosis, and 4 for incidence estimations. The pooled prevalence of hypertension was 22.0% (95% CI: 20.0% - 25.0%; I2=99.2%). This estimate was lower in national studies [20.0% (95% CI: 17.0% - 22.0%; I2=99.4%] than in sub-national studies [24.0% (95% CI: 17.0% - 30.0%; I2=99.2%]. The pooled prevalence of previous hypertension diagnosis was 51.0% (95% CI: 43.0% - 59.0%; I2=99.9%). The pooled incidence of hypertension was 4.2 (95% CI: 2.0 - 6.4; I2=98.6%) per 100 person-years. The included studies did not present high risk of bias., Conclusions.: Our findings show that one in five Peruvians has hypertension, and that four new cases appear per 100 persons per year; in addition, only half of the subjects with hypertension are previously diagnosed.

Objective: To determine the incidence of stroke, overall and by sub-types, in Peru between 2017 and 2018., Materials and Methods: Analysis of hospital morbidity data obtained from SUSALUD (open data). Using the ICD-10 codes, the following were studied: subarachnoid hemorrhage (I60), atraumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (I61), cerebral infarction (I63), and unspecified stroke (I64). The crude and age-standardized incidence was calculated according to the population of the World Health Organization and using the national projected population number of people according to year, age and sex as the denominator., Results: In 2017, a total of 10,570 stroke cases were recorded, whereas, in 2018, there were 12,835 cases. Ischemic events were more frequent in both years. Regardless of stroke subtype and year, men were more affected than women. In the 35+ year-old population, an increase in the crude incidence of total stroke was observed between 2017 and 2018, from 80.9 to 96.7 per 100,000 person-years. The age-standardized incidence showed the same trend, but in a greater magnitude: from 93.9 to 109.8 per 100,000 person-years. Ischemic stroke was the one that increased the most, with an age-standardized rate in people aged 35+ years of 35.2 in 2017 and 46.3 per 100,000 person-years in 2018., Conclusions: The incidence of stroke is high in Peru. Ischemic cases are the most frequent and they disproportionately affect men. Our results suggest the need for a surveillance system to robustly quantify the incidence of these cases and understand their determinants.