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On global and hemispheric scales, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are assumed to be good surrogates for near-surface marine air temperature (MAT) anomalies. In fact, global gridded temperature datasets commonly blend SST and near-surface air temperature anomalies to overcome the lack of geographically homogeneous and reliable MAT observations. Here, we show that SST and MAT anomalies differ regarding crucial statistical properties such as multiannual trends and probabilistic distributions of daily and monthly averages. We provide evidence of the lack of interchangeability from an array of moored buoys in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We identify statistically significant discrepancies between SST and MAT anomalies for single as well as groups of such buoys. Thus, caution is required when characterizing and interpreting MAT variability through SST observations, especially at shorter than decadal timescale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the Indian and Pacific Oceans exhibit prominent decadal time scale variations in sea surface temperature (SST), linked dynamically via atmospheric and oceanic processes. However, the relationship between SST in these two basins underwent a dramatic transformation beginning around 1985. Prior to that, SST variations associated with the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOB) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) were positively correlated, whereas afterward they weremuch less clearly synchronized. Evidence is presented from both observations and coupled state-of-the-art climate models that enhanced external forcing, particularly from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases, was the principal cause of this changed relationship. Using coupled climatemodel experiments, it is shown that without external forcing, the evolution of the IOB would be strongly forced by variations in the IPO. However, with strong external forcing, the dynamical linkage between the IOB and the IPOweakens so that the negative phase IPOafter 2000 is unable to force a negative phase IOB-induced cooling of the Indian Ocean. This changed relationship in the IOB and IPO led to unique SST patterns in the Indo-Pacific region after 2000, which favored exceptionally strong easterly trade winds over the tropical Pacific Ocean and a pronounced global warming hiatus in the first decade of the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a critical control on the atmosphere, and numerical models of atmosphere-ocean circulation emphasize its accurate prediction. Yet many models demonstrate large, systematic biases in simulated SST in the equatorial 'cold tongues' (expansive regions of net heat uptake from the atmosphere) of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, particularly with regard to a central but little-understood feature of tropical oceans: a strong seasonal cycle. The biases may be related to the inability of models to constrain turbulent mixing realistically, given that turbulent mixing, combined with seasonal variations in atmospheric heating, determines SST. In temperate oceans, the seasonal SST cycle is clearly related to varying solar heating; in the tropics, however, SSTs vary seasonally in the absence of similar variations in solar inputs. Turbulent mixing has long been a likely explanation, but firm, long-term observational evidence has been absent. Here we show the existence of a distinctive seasonal cycle of subsurface cooling via mixing in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue, using multi-year measurements of turbulence in the ocean. In boreal spring, SST rises by 2 kelvin when heating of the upper ocean by the atmosphere exceeds cooling by mixing from below. In boreal summer, SST decreases because cooling from below exceeds heating from above. When the effects of lateral advection are considered, the magnitude of summer cooling via mixing (4 kelvin per month) is equivalent to that required to counter the heating terms. These results provide quantitative assessment of how mixing varies on timescales longer than a few weeks, clearly showing its controlling influence on seasonal cooling of SST in a critical oceanic regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical Atlantic wind response to El Niño forcing is robust, with weakened northeast trade winds north of the equator and strengthened southeast trade winds along and south of the equator. However, the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Atlantic is inconsistent, with El Niño events followed sometimes by warm and other times by cold boreal summer anomalies in the Atlantic cold tongue region. Using observational data and a hindcast simulation of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO) global model at 0.5° resolution (NEMO-ORCA05), this inconsistent SST relationship is shown to be at least partly attributable to a delayed negative feedback in the tropical Atlantic that is active in years with a warm or neutral response in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. In these years, the boreal spring warming in the northern tropical Atlantic that is a typical response to El Niño is pronounced, setting up a strong meridional SST gradient. This leads to a negative wind stress curl anomaly to the north of the equator that generates downwelling Rossby waves. When these waves reach the western boundary, they are reflected into downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves that reach the cold tongue region in late boreal summer to counteract the initial cooling that is due to the boreal winter wind stress response to El Niño. In contrast, this initial cooling persists or is amplified in years in which the boreal spring northern tropical Atlantic warming is weak or absent either because of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase or an early termination of the Pacific El Niño event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors use a new and novel heat balance formalism for the upper 50 m of the Niño-3 region (5°N–5°S, 90°–150°W) to investigate the oceanographic processes underlying interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The focus is on a better understanding of the relationship between local and remote atmospheric forcing in generating SST anomalies associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The heat balance analysis indicates that heat advection across 50-m depth and across 150°W are the important oceanic mechanisms responsible for temperature variations with the former being dominant. On the other hand, net surface heat flux adjusted for penetrative radiation damps SST. Jointly, these processes can explain most of interannual variations in temperature tendency averaged over the Niño-3 region. Decomposition of vertical advection across the bottom indicates that the mean seasonal advection of anomalous temperature (the so-called thermocline feedback) dominates and is highly correlated with 20°C isotherm depth variations, which are mainly forced by remote winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Temperature advection by anomalous vertical velocity (the “Ekman feedback”), which is highly correlated with local zonal wind stress variations, is smaller with an amplitude of about 40% on average of remotely forced vertical heat advection. These results support those of recent empirical and modeling studies in which local atmospheric forcing, while not dominant, significantly affects ENSO SST variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study the subtropical cells (STC) in the Pacific Ocean are analyzed using an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model driven by atmospheric forcing for the years 1992–2003. In particular, the authors seek to identify decadal changes in the STCs in the model and to compare them with observations in order to understand the consequences of such changes for the equatorial ocean heat and mass budgets. The simulation shows a trend toward increasing pycnocline volume transport at 9°N and 9°S across the basin from 1992 to 2003. This increase [4.9 ± 1.0 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1)] is in qualitative agreement with observations and is attributed primarily to changes in the interior ocean transport, which are partially compensated by opposing western boundary transports. The subtropical meridional volume transport convergence anomalies in the model pycnocline are found to be consistent with anomalous volume transports in both the observed and modeled Equatorial Undercurrent, as well as with the magnitude of simulated anomalous upwelling transport at the base of the mixed layer in the eastern Pacific. As a result of the increased circulation intensity, heat transport divergence through the lateral boundaries of the tropical control volume (defined as the region between 9°N and 9°S, and from the surface to σθ = 25.3 isopycnal) increases, leading to a cooling of the tropical upper ocean despite the fact that net surface heat flux into the control volume has increased in the same time. As such, these results suggest that wind-driven changes in ocean transports associated with the subtropical cells play a central role in regulating tropical Pacific climate variability on decadal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this study, we use existing observational datasets to evaluate 20th century climate simulations of the tropical Pacific. The emphasis of our work is decadal variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation, which links the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. In observations, this circulation is characterized by equatorward geostrophic volume transport convergence in the interior ocean pycnocline across 9°N and 9°S. Historical hydrographic data indicate that there has been a decreasing trend in this convergence over the period 1953–2001 of about 11 Sverdrup (1Sv=106 m3 s−1), with maximum decade-to-decade variations of 7–11Sv. The transport time series is highly anti-correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, implying that variations in meridional overturning circulation are directly linked to decadal variability and trends in tropical SST. These relationships are explored in 18 model simulations of 20th century climate from 14 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Significant correlation exists between meridional volume transport convergence and tropical SST in the majority of the models over the last half century. However, the magnitude of transport variability on decadal time scales in the models is underestimated while at the same time modeled SST variations are more sensitive to that transport variability than in the observations. The effects of the meridional overturning circulation on SST trends in most the models is less clear. Most models show no trend in meridional transport convergence and underestimate the trend in eastern tropical Pacific SST. The eddy permitting MIROCH model is the only model that reasonably reproduces the observed trends in transport convergence, tropical Pacific SST, and SST gradient along the equator over the last half century. If the observed trends and those simulated in the MIROCH model are ultimately related to greenhouse gas forcing, these results suggest that the Bjerknes feedback, by affecting pycnocline transport convergences, may enhance warming that arises from anthropogenic forcing in the eastern tropical Pacific. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Reports on the slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean since the 1970s, based on analysis of hydrographic data for the period 1950-1999 in the depth range of the upper pycnocline. Reduction in equatorial upwelling of cool water associated with a rise in equatorial sea surface temperatures of about 0.8 degrees Celsius.

Geostrophic and Ekman transports calculated from observations of subsurface thermal structure and surface winds are used to determine vertical velocities and transports as a function of time, depth, and longitude in the equatorial Pacific within 5°S–5°N, 165°E–95°W during 1993–99 via a box volume balance. The vertical transports are determined in boxes of 10° of latitude by generally 15° in longitude. The corresponding vertical velocities represent a spatial average over these regions. Both the total vertical velocity and the cross-isopycnal component of the vertical velocity (approximated by the cross-isothermal component) are calculated on seasonal and interannual timescales. For the eastern equatorial Pacific (5°S–5°N, 155°–95°W) the mean vertical transport across 50 m is (24 ± 3) × 10[sup 6] m[sup 3] s[sup -1] . Variability in the vertical velocity is large relative to the mean. On interannual timescales this variability is well correlated with the local winds in the western portion of the study area, while the correspondence is weaker in the east where wind variability is much smaller. At seasonal timescales there is good correspondence between the vertical velocity and the local winds throughout the study region. The cross-isothermal vertical velocity is significantly smaller than the total vertical velocity, and the means of both compare well with the few historical estimates available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface layer temperature balance in the equatorial Pacific has been examined for the period of 1996–99 by using data obtained from Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean buoy array at four locations along the equator, namely, 165°E, 170°W, 140°W, and 110°W. Time rate change of SST, horizontal temperature advection, and heat fluxes at the sea surface are estimated directly from the data. Vertical fluxes of heat out of the base of the mixed layer, related to changes in vertical mixing and upwelling, are calculated as a residual. Results indicate that all terms in the temperature balance contributed to SST variations during different stages of the 1997–98 El Niño and the 1998–99 La Niña. Zonal advection was particularly important during the onset of the El Niño in the central Pacific. The inferred vertical heat flux out of the base of the mixed layer was important most of the time, and was especially pronounced in the eastern Pacific during the termination phase of the El Niño. Meridional advection due to eddies was a negative feedback on SST change in the eastern Pacific during both the El Niño and La Niña, tending to counteract the development of warm and cold anomalies. Likewise, the net surface heat flux generally represented a negative feedback, tending to damp SST anomalies created by ocean dynamical processes. The relevance of these results to recent theoretical developments concerning ENSO timescale physical processes is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies the effects of El Nino and La Nina on biogeochemical cycles using a combination of ship, buoy and satellite observations in the tropical Pacific during the period from 1992 to 2000. Variation in biological production during the period; Inter-annual changes in global carbon sequestration associated with the El Nino/La Nina cycle.

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s[sup -1] too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s[sup -1] for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contribu... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes observed changes in surface winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and the volume of water warmer than 208C (WWV) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean for the period 1980--99. The purpose is to test recent hypotheses about the relationship between variations in WWV and the El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The results confirm inferences based on theory, models, and previous empirical analyses using proxy data (namely sea level) that ENSO involves a recharge and discharge of WWV along the equator and that the cyclic nature of ENSO results from a disequilibrium between zonal winds and zonal mean thermocline depth. The authors also find that the magnitude of ENSO SST anomalies is directly related to the magnitude of zonal mean WWV anomalies. Furthermore, for a given change in equatorial WWV, the corresponding warm El Nino SST anomalies are larger than the corresponding cold La Nina anomalies. This asymmetry between the warm and cold phases of the ENSO cycle implies differences in the relative importance of physical processes controlling SST during El Nino and La Nina events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three idealized models for the surface structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) were summarized from observations, numerical simulations, and theories, which demonstrate contrasting phase relationships of surface variables. To explore which model represents the most commonly observed features of the MJO in the western Pacific, in situ observations from moored buoys and satellite data were used to construct composite time series for components of surface fluxes of heat, momentum, and buoyancy during intraseasonal cooling episodes, defined as periods when the ocean loses heat through the surface. The composites show a near in-phase relationship among maxima in net surface cooling, latent heat flux, precipitation rate, wind stress, westerly wind, and minima in solar radiation flux and net buoyancy flux. The phase of net buoyancy flux is determined by the net heat flux, whereas its magnitude is substantially compensated by freshwater flux. During the composite cooling episode, both the oceanic isothermal layer and mixed layer become deeper, the barrier layer becomes thinner, and the sea surface becomes cooler. The strength of atmospheric forcing and the oceanic response increases with the length of the cooling episodes. The phase relationships found in the composites are consistent with one of the three MJO models and with some previous studies based on observations and global model analyses but are inconsistent with others. Possible reasons for the disagreement among different studies and the implications of the disagreement are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents detailed information on the formation, workings, and termination of the 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, based on observation systems put in place by the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program. Effects of warm sea-surface temperatures, the rapid development of El Nino, and ocean currents; Chronological accounting of ENSO events; Delayed oscillator theory of the evolution of the climate system; Predictability.

Presents views on a study suggesting that the consequences of the 1982-83 El Nino are long-term. Generation general circulation model for the global ocean; Excitation of equatorial Kelvin waves in the Pacific; Climate impacts of the sea surface warming resulting from a shift in the axis of the Kuroshio Extension.

Abstract: We analyzed several records of mean volume backscattering strength (S v ) derived from 150kHz acoustic doppler current profilers (ADCPs) moored along the equator in upwelling mesotrophic conditions and in the warm pool oligotrophic ecosystem of the Pacific Ocean. The ADCPs allow for gathering long time-series of non-intrusive information about zooplankton and micronekton at the same spatial and temporal scales as physical observations. High S v are found from the surface to the middle of the thermocline between dusk and dawn in the mesotrophic regime. Biological and physical influences modified this classical diel cycle. In oligotrophic conditions observed at 170°W and 140°W during El Niño years, a subsurface S v maximum characterized nighttime S v profiles. Variations of the thermocline depth correlated with variations of the base of the high S v layer and the subsurface maximum closely tracked the thermocline depth from intraseasonal to interannual time-scales. A recurring deepening (20–60m) of the high S v layer was observed at a frequency close to the lunar cycle frequency. At 165°E, high day-to-day variations prevailed and our results suggest the influence of moderately mesotrophic waters that would be advected from the western warm pool during westerly wind events. A review of the literature suggests that S v variations may result from changes in biomass and species assemblages among which myctophids and euphausiids would be the most likely scatterers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter 1-3 , whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer 4-7 . Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific 6,7 , enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture 8-13 . Future changes to multi-year-long La Niña events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings 14 , we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Niña ranging from 19 ± 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 ± 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Niño warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Niña to persist into a second-year La Niña. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Niña episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century., (© 2023. Crown.)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, characterized by an eastward-moving band of rain clouds. The MJO modulates the El Niño Southern Oscillation 1 , tropical cyclones 2,3 and the monsoons 4-10 , and contributes to severe weather events over Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. MJO events travel a distance of 12,000-20,000 km across the tropical oceans, covering a region that has been warming during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries in response to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases 11 , and is projected to warm further. However, the impact of this warming on the MJO life cycle is largely unknown. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981-2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3-4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5-6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 10 5  km 2 (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900-2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 10 5  km 2 (the size of California) per year during 1981-2018. The changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the MJO are related to increased rainfall over southeast Asia, northern Australia, Southwest Africa and the Amazon, and drying over the west coast of the United States and Ecuador.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant and most consequential climate variation on Earth, and is characterized by warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the El Niño phase and cooling during the La Niña phase. ENSO events tend to have a centre-corresponding to the location of the maximum SST anomaly-in either the central equatorial Pacific (5° S-5° N, 160° E-150° W) or the eastern equatorial Pacific (5° S-5° N, 150°-90° W); these two distinct types of ENSO event are referred to as the CP-ENSO and EP-ENSO regimes, respectively. How the ENSO may change under future greenhouse warming is unknown, owing to a lack of inter-model agreement over the response of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to such warming. Here we find a robust increase in future EP-ENSO SST variability among CMIP5 climate models that simulate the two distinct ENSO regimes. We show that the EP-ENSO SST anomaly pattern and its centre differ greatly from one model to another, and therefore cannot be well represented by a single SST 'index' at the observed centre. However, although the locations of the anomaly centres differ in each model, we find a robust increase in SST variability at each anomaly centre across the majority of models considered. This increase in variability is largely due to greenhouse-warming-induced intensification of upper-ocean stratification in the equatorial Pacific, which enhances ocean-atmosphere coupling. An increase in SST variance implies an increase in the number of 'strong' EP-El Niño events (corresponding to large SST anomalies) and associated extreme weather events.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's most prominent source of interannual climate variability, exerting profound worldwide effects. Despite decades of research, its behaviour continues to challenge scientists. In the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the anomalously cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) found during La Niña events and the warm waters of modest El Niño events both propagate westwards, as in the seasonal cycle. In contrast, SST anomalies propagate eastwards during extreme El Niño events, prominently in the post-1976 period, spurring unusual weather events worldwide with costly consequences. The cause of this propagation asymmetry is currently unknown. Here we trace the cause of the asymmetry to the variations in upper ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific, whereby the westward-flowing currents are enhanced during La Niña events but reversed during extreme El Niño events. Our results highlight that propagation asymmetry is favoured when the westward mean equatorial currents weaken, as is projected to be the case under global warming. By analysing past and future climate simulations of an ensemble of models with more realistic propagation, we find a doubling in the occurrences of El Niño events that feature prominent eastward propagation characteristics in a warmer world. Our analysis thus suggests that more frequent emergence of propagation asymmetry will be an indication of the Earth's warming climate.

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events--such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones--experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Niño events and southward during La Niña events. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing--by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator--and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.