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Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 degrees C to 0.67 degrees C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

This study synthesizes the observed trends and projected changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs). Under future warming, the seasonal ITCZs are projected to shift equatorward, widen, and weaken. The equatorward‐shifted seasonal ITCZs cause a squeeze of the annual‐mean zonal‐mean tropical ascent. Over 1979–2014, however, the seasonal ITCZs have shifted poleward in South Pacific and generally narrowed and strengthened. The observed annual‐mean zonal‐mean changes are largely opposite to the future squeeze. Such contrasting ITCZ changes are attributed to the distinct tropical warming patterns. Specifically, the equatorial Pacific has cooled following a phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but will warm more than the tropics in future. The ITCZ response to tropical warming pattern is consistent with thermodynamic/energetic theories and demonstrated through SST‐forced experiments. In the coming decades, a positive PDO can act jointly with anthropogenically forced equatorial warming, leading to substantial ITCZ changes that are distinct from recent trends. Key Points: Under anthropogenically forced enhanced equatorial warming, the seasonal ITCZs are projected to shift equatorward, widen, and weakenOver 1979–2014 with a positive‐to‐negative PDO phase change, the seasonal ITCZs have shifted poleward in SH and sharpened generallyIn the coming decades, a positive PDO can enhance the equatorial warming and amplify the anthropogenically forced ITCZ changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the potential impact of subsurface potential temperature and current conditions on the sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall over the tropical region using Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958–2014. The climatological difference of earlier period (1958–78; P58‐78) and later period (1994–2014; P94‐14) in January initialized reforecasts (JIR) depicts mild‐warm SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific in January, but its magnitude becomes larger over there from May to August. The difference between JIR P58‐78 and P94‐14 depicts warm potential temperature (PT) up to 3°C over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific at depth from 155 to 70 m in January therefore 20°C isotherm of JIR P58‐78 in January tends to be deeper in the equatorial eastern Pacific than JIR P94‐14. The magnitude of equatorial undercurrent (EUC) in JIR P58‐78 is larger in the eastern Pacific at depth from 125 to 35 m from January to February than JIR P94‐14. Therefore, water upwelled to the surface through EUC was usually warm in January of JIR P58‐78. As lead months increase, the center of warm PT gradually moves upward in the eastern Pacific than its location in January, resulting in development of warm SST in the eastern Pacific in March. The difference between April initialized reforecasts P58‐78 and P94‐14 depicts warm PT up to 1.5°C in the eastern Pacific at depth from 135 to 35 m in April but as lead months increase, magnitude of warm PT gradually decreases, resulting in negligible difference SST over the eastern Pacific. Key Points: The difference between 1958–1978 and 1994–2014 in January initialized reforecasts depicts warm SST in summer over equatorial eastern PacificThe 20°C isotherm for period 1958–1978 in January of reforecasts tends to be deeper in equatorial eastern Pacific than period 1994–2014Difference between 1958–1978 and 1994–2014 January initial condition depicts warm potential temperature from 155 to 70 m in equatorial Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms controlling the variability of oxygen levels in the ocean are poorly quantified. I focus here on the impact of wind synoptic variability associated with tropical convective regions and extratropical storms. Removing the wind higher frequencies of variability (2 days to 1 month) in an atmosphere reanalysis used to force an ocean model decreases wind stress by up to 20% in the tropics and 50% in the midlatitudes, weakening wind‐driven ocean circulation by 20%. Oxygen levels decrease by up to 10 mmol/m3 in tropical oceans and 30 mmol/m3 in subtropical gyres mainly due to changes in advective processes. While a large part of the tropical oxygen anomaly has local origins, changes in oxygen levels in the subtropical gyres modulate tropical oxygen distribution. This study suggests that the "storminess" of the ocean is an important parameter that could determine the future evolution of poorly oxygenated regions. Plain Language Summary: A number of studies reported a strong decrease in marine oxygen levels during the last decades, threatening marine life and ecosystems. The mechanisms responsible of the variability of oxygen in the oceans are still not completely understood, hampering reliable future projections. It is however well known that upper oceanic currents, driven by the wind, play a major role in transporting oceanic properties at basin scale. The wind strength is strongly dependent of the day‐to‐day weather. For instance, precipitations, storms, cyclones, are responsible for a strong variability of the order of a few days (so called "synoptic variability"). I assess here the impact of the synoptic activity, or in other words the integrated impact of the weather phenomenons, on the mean oxygen levels in numerical, idealized, experiments. I show that "switching off" the synoptic variability is responsible of a decrease of oxygen in the ocean by about 20 %. This study suggests that a future increase of the frequency of storms or cyclones (so called "storminess"), hence enhancing the synoptic variability, may impact oceanic oxygen levels. Key Points: Removing the wind synoptic activity decreases oxygen levels by 20 mmol/m3 in the subtropical gyres and 10 mmol/m3 in the tropicsThe tropical oxygen decrease is largely related to a weakening of the advective oxygen transportThe subtropical gyres synoptic activity participates in the modulation of the tropical oxygen levels [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Year-to-year variability of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is primarily controlled by atmosphere-ocean interaction (AOI) between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool dipole SST anomalies (AOI mode) and the anomalous SST forcing from the equatorial central Pacific (the CP forcing mode). In this study, we show that the impacts of the WPSH variability on Asian summer monsoon rainfall have changed after the late 1990s. Before the late 1990s (the PRE epoch), the WPSH primarily affects East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and had little influence on Indian summer monsoon (ISM), whereas after the late 1990s (the POST epoch), the WPSH has strengthened its linkage to the ISM while weakened its relationship with the EASM. This epochal change is associated with a change in the leading circulation mode in the Asia-WP region. During the PRE (POST) epoch the WPSH variation is mainly controlled by the AOI (CP forcing) that mainly affects EASM (ISM). The epochal change of the leading mode may be attributed to the change of the ENSO properties in late 1990s: the CP types of El Nino become a leading ENSO mode in the POST epoch. This work provides a new perspective for understanding decadal changes of the ENSO-monsoon relationship through subtropical dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The TAO/TRITON array is the cornerstone of the tropical Pacific and ENSO observing system. Motivated by the recent rapid decline of the TAO/TRITON array, the potential utility of TAO/TRITON was assessed for ENSO monitoring and prediction. The analysis focused on the period when observations from Argo floats were also available. We coordinated observing system experiments (OSEs) using the global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the ensemble coupled data assimilation (ECDA) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for the period 2004-2011. Four OSE simulations were conducted with inclusion of different subsets of in situ profiles: all profiles (XBT, moorings, Argo), all except the moorings, all except the Argo and no profiles. For evaluation of the OSE simulations, we examined the mean bias, standard deviation difference, root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and anomaly correlation against observations and objective analyses. Without assimilation of in situ observations, both GODAS and ECDA had large mean biases and RMSD in all variables. Assimilation of all in situ data significantly reduced mean biases and RMSD in all variables except zonal current at the equator. For GODAS, the mooring data is critical in constraining temperature in the eastern and northwestern tropical Pacific, while for ECDA both the mooring and Argo data is needed in constraining temperature in the western tropical Pacific. The Argo data is critical in constraining temperature in off-equatorial regions for both GODAS and ECDA. For constraining salinity, sea surface height and surface current analysis, the influence of Argo data was more pronounced. In addition, the salinity data from the TRITON buoys played an important role in constraining salinity in the western Pacific. GODAS was more sensitive to withholding Argo data in off-equatorial regions than ECDA because it relied on local observations to correct model biases and there were few XBT profiles in those regions. The results suggest that multiple ocean data assimilation systems should be used to assess sensitivity of ocean analyses to changes in the distribution of ocean observations to get more robust results that can guide the design of future tropical Pacific observing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents results from regional climate model (RCM) projections for the south-west Pacific Ocean. The regional models used bias corrected sea surface temperatures. Six global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive a global variable resolution model on a quasi-uniform 60 km grid. One of these simulations was used to drive three limited area regional models. Thus a four member ensemble was produced by different RCMs downscaling the same GCM (GFDL2.1), and a six member ensemble was produced by the same RCM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model-CCAM) downscaling six different GCMs. Comparison of the model results with precipitation observations shows the differences to be dominated by the choice of RCM, with all the CCAM simulations performing similarly and generally having lower error than the other RCMs. However, evaluating aspects of the model representation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) does not show CCAM to perform better in this regard. In terms of the future projections of the SPCZ for the December-January-February season, the ensemble showed no consensus change in most characteristics though a majority of the ensemble members project a decrease in the SPCZ strength. Thus, similar to GCM based studies, there is large uncertainty concerning future changes in the SPCZ and there is no evidence to suggest that future changes will be outside the natural variability. These RCM simulations do not support an increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly correlation of Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) index with various monsoon indices changes predominantly and peaks within summer season (Ailikun and Yasunari, 2001). There is transition in this lead and lagged correlation during spring (March, April and May). This spring transition could not be captured in many general circulation models (GCMs) and is termed as "predictability barrier" (Latif and Graham, 1991). It has been less investigated and hence reasons for dampening/reversal of associated large scale fields during spring are intriguing. Present study illustrates dynamics of spring predictability barrier with Indian summer (June, July, August and September) monsoon (ISM). In this study, based on data from 1979 to 2008, an internal dynamics between various monsoon indices and corresponding IMR anomaly is diagnosed. It is found that secular behaviour of El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during preceding spring of monsoon months (June, July, August and September) gets reversed in succeeding spring. Though correlation between various monsoon indices and ISM index remains similar during preceding and succeeding springs with peaks during monsoon (June, July, August and September), corresponding large scale fields show that strong significant convection dominates over the southern equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, northern equatorial western Pacific Ocean, Indonesian throughflow and weaker significant convection dominates over the Head Bay of Arabian Sea and western to central Indian sub-continent during preceding spring. Such patterns reverse during succeeding spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructions of past climate behavior often describe prominent anomalous periods that are not necessarily captured in climate simulations. Here, we illustrate the contrast between an interdecadal strong positive phase of the winter Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) in the early 19th century that is described by a PNA reconstruction based on tree rings from northwestern North America, and a slight tendency towards negative winter PNA anomalies during the same period in an ensemble of state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations. Additionally, a pseudo-proxy investigation with the same simulation ensemble allows for assessing the robustness of PNA reconstructions using solely geophysical predictors from northwestern North America for the last millennium. The reconstructed early 19th-century positive PNA anomaly emerges as a potentially reliable feature, although the pseudo-reconstructions are subject to a number of sources of uncertainty and deficiencies highlighted especially at multidecadal and centennial timescales. The pseudoreconstructions demonstrate that the early 19th-century discrepancy between reconstructed and simulated PNA does not stem from the reconstruction process. Instead, reconstructed and simulated features of the early 19th-century PNA can be reconciled by interpreting the reconstructed evolution during this time as an expression of internal climate variability, which is unlikely to be reproduced in its exact temporal occurrence by a small ensemble of climate simulations. However, firm attribution of the reconstructed PNA anomaly is hampered by known limitations and deficiencies of coupled climate models and uncertainties in the early 19th-century external forcing and background climate state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is studied using a pacemaker technique driven by ENSO in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab mixed layer model. In the pacemaker experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is constrained to observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific through a q- flux that measures the contribution of ocean dynamics to SST variability, while the AGCM is coupled to the slab model. An ensemble of pacemaker experiments is analyzed using a multivariate EOF analysis to identify the two major modes of variability of the EASM. The results show that the pacemaker experiments simulate a substantial amount (around 45 %) of the variability of the first mode (the Pacific-Japan pattern) in ERA40 from 1979 to 1999. Different from previous work, the pacemaker experiments also simulate a large part (25 %) of the variability of the second mode, related to rainfall variability over northern China. Furthermore, we find that the lower (850 hPa) and the upper (200 hPa) tropospheric circulation of the first mode display the same degree of reproducibility whereas only the lower part of the second mode is reproducible. The basis for the success of the pacemaker experiments is the ability of the experiments to reproduce the observed relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the EASM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the predominant interannual variability of the global climate system. How might ENSO change in a warmer world? The dominant two Combined Empirical Orthogonal Functions (CEOF) of the equatorial ocean temperature and zonal and vertical motion identify two modes that shown a transition in the eastern Pacific from a warming eastward/downward motion to a cooling westward/upward flow. These results also suggest consistent changes to the west and at depths down to 300 m. These dominate CEOFs provide a compact tool for assessing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ocean model output for both the recent historical period and for the latter part of the twenty first century. Most of the analyzed models replicate well the spatial patterns of the dominant observational CEOF modes, but nearly always underestimate the magnitudes. Comparing model output for the twentieth and twenty first centuries there is very little change between the spatial patterns of the ENSO modes of the two periods. This lack of response to climate change is shown to be partly related to competing influences of climatic changes in the mean ocean circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In February and March of 2011, the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) was deployed over the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic during the WISPAR field campaign. The WISPAR science missions were designed to: (1) improve our understanding of Pacific weather systems and the polar atmosphere; (2) evaluate operational use of unmanned aircraft for investigating these atmospheric events; and (3) demonstrate operational and research applications of a UAS dropsonde system at high latitudes. Dropsondes deployed from the Global Hawk successfully obtained high-resolution profiles of temperature, pressure, humidity, and wind information between the stratosphere and surface. The 35m wingspan Global Hawk, which can soar for ~31 h at altitudes up to ~ 20 km, was remotely operated from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards AFB in California. During the 25 h polar flight on 9-10 March 2011, the Global Hawk released 35 sondes between the North Slope of Alaska and 85° N latitude marking the first UAS Arctic dropsonde mission of its kind. The polar flight transected an unusually cold polar vortex, notable for an associated record-level Arctic ozone loss, and documented polar boundary layer variations over a sizable ocean-ice lead feature. Comparison of dropsonde observations with atmospheric reanalyses reveal that for this day, large-scale structures such as the polar vortex and air masses are captured by the reanalyses, while smaller-scale features, including low-level jets and inversion depths, are mischaracterized. The successful Arctic dropsonde deployment demonstrates the capability of the Global Hawk to conduct operations in harsh, remote regions. The limited comparison with other measurements and reanalyses highlights the value of Arctic atmospheric dropsonde observations where routine in situ measurements are practically non-existent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is studied using a partially coupled climate model (PCCM) in which the ocean component is driven by observed monthly mean wind stress anomalies added to the monthly mean wind stress climatology from a fully coupled control run. The thermodynamic coupling between the atmospheric and oceanic components is the same as in the fully coupled model and, in particular, sea surface temperature (SST) is a fully prognostic variable. The results show that the PCCM simulates the observed SST variability remarkably well in the tropical and North Pacific and Indian Oceans. Analysis of the rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlation shows that the PCCM exhibits local air-sea coupling as in the fully coupled model and closer to what is seen in observations than is found in an atmospheric model driven by observed SST. An ensemble of experiments using the PCCM is analysed using a multivariate EOF analysis to identify the two major modes of variability of the EASM. The PCCM simulates the spatial pattern of the first two modes seen in the ERA40 reanalysis as well as part of the variability of the first principal component (correlation up to 0.5 for the model ensemble mean). Different from previous studies, the link between the first principal component and ENSO in the previous winter is found to be robust for the ensemble mean throughout the whole period of 1958-2001. Individual ensemble members nevertheless show the breakdown in the relationship before the 1980's as seen in the observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Most intense cold surges and associated frost events in southern and southeastern Brazil are characterized by a large amplitude trough over South America extending toward tropical latitudes and a ridge to the west of it over the Pacific Ocean. In this study, potential vorticity ( PV) streamers serve to examine the flow condition leading to cold surges. Case studies suggest that several PV anomalies are related to cold surge episodes: (1) the potential vorticity unit (2-PVU) isoline upstream of South America becomes progressively more distorted prior and during the cold surge episode, indicating a flow situation which is conducive for Rossby wave breaking and hence a flow which strongly deviates from zonality; (2) the initial stage of a cold surge episode is characterized by a northward bulging of high- PV air to the east of the Andes, resulting in a PV streamer whose northern end reaches Uruguay and southeastern Brazil; the strong PV gradient on its western flank constitutes a flow configuration that induces and maintains the transport of sub-Antarctic air toward the subtropics; (3) a distinct negative PV anomaly, a blocking, originates over the eastern South Pacific, upstream of the South America sector. A composite analysis of 27 cold surges is performed for stratospheric PV streamer frequency on several isentropic surfaces. It reveals that equatorward wave breaking over South America and the western South Atlantic represents an important potential component of the dynamics of intense cold surges. The indications are most pronounced around the isentropic levels of 320 K and immediately before the day with largest temperature drops over subtropical Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air-sea CO2 fluxes over the Pacific Ocean are known to be characterized by coherent large-scale structures that reflect not only ocean subduction and upwelling patterns, but also the combined effects of wind-driven gas exchange and biology. On the largest scales, a large net CO2 influx into the extra-tropics is associated with a robust seasonal cycle, and a large net CO2 efflux from the tropics is associated with substantial inter-annual variability. In this work, we have synthesized estimates of the net air-sea CO2 flux from a variety of products drawing upon a variety of approaches in three sub-basins of the Pacific Ocean, i.e., the North Pacific extra-tropics (18° N-66° N), the tropical Pacific (18° S-18° N), and the South Pacific extra-tropics (44.5° S-18° S). These approaches include those based on the measurements of CO2 partial pressure in surface seawater (pCO2sw), inversions of ocean interior CO2 data, forward ocean biogeochemistry models embedded in the ocean general circulation models (OBGCMs), a model with assimilation of pCO2sw data, and inversions of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Long-term means, inter-annual variations and mean seasonal variations of the regionally-integrated fluxes were compared in each of the sub-basins over the last two decades, spanning the period from 1990 through 2009. A simple average of the long-term mean fluxes obtained with surface water pCO2 diagnostics and those obtained with ocean interior CO2 inversions are -0.47 ± 0.13PgCyr-1 in the North Pacific extra-tropics, +0.44 ± 0 .14PgCyr-1 in the tropical Pacific, and -0.37 ± 0.08PgCyr-1 in the South Pacific extra-tropics, where positive fluxes are into the atmosphere. This suggests that approximately half of the CO2 taken up over the North and South Pacific extra-tropics is released back to the atmosphere from the tropical Pacific. These estimates of the regional fluxes are also supported by the estimates from OBGCMs after adding the riverine CO2 flux, i.e., -0.49 ± 0.02PgCyr-1 in the North Pacific extratropics, +0.41 ± 0.05PgCyr-1 in the tropical Pacific, and -0.39 ± 0.11 PgCyr-1 in the South Pacific extra-tropics. The estimates from the atmospheric CO2 inversions show large variations amongst different inversion systems, but their median fluxes are consistent with the estimates from climatological pCO2sw data and pCO2sw diagnostics. In the South Pacific extra-tropics, where CO2 variations in the surface and ocean interior are severely under-sampled, the difference in the air-sea CO2 flux estimates between the diagnostic models and ocean interior CO2 inversions is larger (0.18 PgCyr-1). The range of estimates from forward OBGCMs is also large (-0.19 to -0.72 PgCyr-1). Regarding inter-annual variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes, positive and negative anomalies are evident in the tropical Pacific during the cold and warm events of the El Nino Southern Oscillation in the estimates from pCO2sw diagnostic models and from OBGCMs. They are consistent in phase with the Southern Oscillation Index, but the peak-to-peak amplitudes tend to be higher in OBGCMs (0.40 ± 0.09 PgCyr-1) than in the diagnostic models (0.27 ± 0.07PgCyr-1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the dependence of the cloud radiative effect (CRE) and cloud amount on mid-tropospheric pressure velocity ( ω) and sea surface temperature (SST) and point out the shortcomings of using these two proxies separately as means to separate cloud regimes. A bivariate approach is proposed to overcome these shortcomings and it is used to systematically investigate marine cloud properties at different spatial and time scales in the present-day (1985-2001) tropical climate. During the 1997-1998 El Niño, the greatest regional change in CRE and cloud cover coincides with the greatest local change in circulation and SST. In addition, we find that the cooling effect of the stratiform low clouds reduces at the rate of approximately 1 W/m per percent of cloudiness reduction in the subsident cold pools of the Pacific ocean. During El Niño, the transition between different cloud regimes gives rise to opposing cloud feedbacks. The sign of the total feedback is controlled by the cloud optical thickness. More generally, we find that the largest part of the cloud response to El Niño, when averaged over the tropical Pacific, is not directly associated with ω and SST changes, so other factors must play a role as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulation outputs were used to contrast the distinct evolution patterns between two types of El Niño. The modeled isotherm depth anomalies closely matched satellite sea surface height anomalies. Results for the El Niño Modoki (central Pacific El Niño) corresponded well with previous studies which suggested that thermocline variations in the equatorial Pacific contain an east-west oscillation. The eastern Pacific El Niño experienced an additional north-south seesaw oscillation between approximately 15° N and 15° S. The wind stress curl pattern over the west-central Pacific was responsible for the unusual manifestation of the eastern Pacific El Niño. The reason why the 1982/1983 El Niño was followed by a normal state whereas a La Niña phase developed from the 1997/1998 El Niño is also discussed. In 1997/1998, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) retreated faster and easterly trade winds appeared immediately after the mature El Niño, cooling the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific and generating the La Niña event. The slow retreat of the ITCZ in 1982/1983 terminated the warm event at a much slower rate and ultimately resulted in a normal phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the intensity change in typhoons and storm surges surrounding the Korean Peninsula under global warming conditions as obtained from the MPI_ECHAM5 climate model using the A1B series. The authors use the Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function to estimate future background fields for typhoon simulations from twenty-first-century prediction results. A series of numerical experiments applies WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and POM (Prinston Ocean Model) models to simulate two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), and associated storm surges under real historical and future warming conditions. Applying numerical experiments to two typhoons, this study found that their central pressure dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future sea surface temperature (a warming of 3.9 °C for 100 years) over the East China Sea (Exp. 1). The associated enhancement of storm surge height ranged from 16 to 67 cm along the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula. However, when the study considered global warming conditions for other atmospheric variables such as sea-level pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, geopotential height, and wind in the typhoon simulations (Exp. 2), the intensities of the two typhoons and their associated surge heights scarcely increased compared to the results of Exp. 1. Analyzing projected atmospheric variables, the authors found that air temperatures at the top of the storm around 200 hPa increased more than those at the surface in tropical and mid-latitudes. The reduced vertical temperature difference provided an unfavorable condition in the typhoon's development even under conditions of global warming. This suggests that global warming may not always correlate with a large increase in the number of intense cyclones and/or an increase in associated storm surges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting skill of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in simulating typhoons over the West Pacific and South China Sea with different trajectories has been studied in terms of track direction and intensity. Four distinct types of typhoons are chosen for this study in such a way that one of them turns toward left during its motion and had landfall, while the second took a right turn before landfall. The third typhoon followed almost a straight line path during its course of motion, while the fourth typhoon tracked toward the coast and just before landfall, ceased its motion and travelled in reverse direction. WRF model has been nested in one way with a coarse resolution of 9 km and a fine resolution of 3 km for this study, and the experiments are performed with National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecasting System (NCEP-GFS) analyses and forecast fields. The model has been integrated up to 96 h and the simulation results are compared with observed and analyzed fields. The results show that the WRF model could satisfactorily simulate the typhoons in terms of time and location of landfall, mean sea-level pressure, maximum wind speed, etc. Results also show that the sensitivity of model resolution is less in predicting the track, while the fine-resolution model component predicted slightly better in terms of central pressure drop and maximum wind. In the case of typhoon motion speed, the coarse-resolution component of the model predicted the landfall time ahead of the actual, whereas the finer one produced either very close to the best track or lagging little behind the best track though the difference in forecast between the model components is minimal. The general tendency of track error forecast is that it increases almost linearly up to 48 h of model simulations and then it diverges quickly. The results also show that the salient features of typhoons such as warm central core, radial increase of wind speed, etc. are simulated well by both the coarse and fine domains of the WRF model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Generalized frosts (GF) in central-southern South America have a strong impact due to their spatial extension, and they are especially important when they become persistent. This paper aims at identifying the atmospheric circulation features that determine the extreme GF persistence, i.e. very persistent and without persistence, and the differences between them, during the 1961-1990 winters. Since the GF without persistence group outnumbers the other one, two subgroups are composed with events selected from winters with maximum and minimum frequency of GF occurrence, respectively. Additionally, the individual event of July 1988 within the very persistent GF group is analyzed due to its exceptional persistence. GF persistence is mainly conditioned by two large-scale dynamic factors. One is the Rossby wave train propagation across the Pacific Ocean, and the other one is the location with respect to the continent and the magnitude of the confluence in the jet entrance region in subtropical latitudes. A predominantly meridional Rossby wave train propagation with a confluence region to the west of the continent prior to the event favors GF with intermediate (null) persistence depending on the greater (lesser) jet acceleration. This is conditioned by the magnitude of the confluence, which, in turn, depends on the disposition of the wave train propagation pattern. Instead, an essentially zonal propagation with a confluence region to the east of the continent favors the GF persistence for several days, yet if there is no confluence the event does not persist. The greatest persistence of an event combines the confluence/diffluence of the jet entrance/exit region, which depends on the disposition with respect to the continent of the zonally propagating Rossby wave trains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using multiple surface wind speed (SWS) data sets and trend empirical orthogonal function analysis, we have explored the trend in SWS associated with the large-scale tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation for the period 1979-2001. The present research provides a robust evidence of strengthening of the tropical Pacific Ocean SWS during this period and the magnitude is generally in line with the finding of Wentz et al. The strengthening in SWS is closely associated with the so-called La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern rather than the changes in the ENSO, ENSO Modoki, or PDO. The present results, together with those from some recent climate model simulations, suggest that global warming forcing may have caused an intensification of SWS in the tropical Pacific Ocean by inducing the La Niña-like SST trend pattern due to ocean dynamics. Meanwhile, the strengthening in the tropical Pacific Ocean surface trade winds may also feedback to enhance the La Niña-like SST trend pattern under the positive wind-upwelling dynamic feedback mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oscillations in the period band of 10-12 years were globally analyzed by the pseudo-2D wavelet transform of reanalyzed (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR) and HadAT radiosonde series at several pressure levels. The results were obtained for the series of temperature, u and v wind velocities, ozone mass mixing ratios at pressure levels up to 10 hPa and temperature and height of the tropopause. The study provides a detailed description of the oscillations' spatial distribution, together with mutual comparison of the reanalyzed datasets. The analysis is supplemented by a correlation study between the wavelet power spectra interval of the reanalyzed and radiosonde series. For the temperature series, the study shows that the cycle is detected primarily in the tropics and subtropics; the details of the spatial patterns, however, differ significantly for the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR series. The analysis of the u and v velocities provides a new characterization of the longitudinal variability of the regions sensitive to solar forcing showing, e.g., preferences for Pacific Ocean areas at 100 hPa. In the ozone mass mixing ratio fields, the oscillations are identified throughout hemispherically asymmetrical and vertically variable locations. The findings describe cycle spatial distribution in a new way and are in general agreement with other studies. The analysis of the temperature and height of the tropopause showed that the regions where the cycle is detected are primarily found within tropical to middle latitudes, with pronounced longitudinal variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the record ozone loss observed in March 2011, dynamical conditions in the Arctic stratosphere were unusual but not unprecedented. Weak planetary wave driving in February preceded cold anomalies in the polar lower stratosphere in March and a relatively late breakup of the Arctic vortex in April. La Niña conditions and the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were observed in March 2011. Though these conditions are generally associated with a stronger vortex in mid-winter, the respective cold anomalies do not persist through March. Therefore, the La Niña and QBO-westerly conditions cannot explain the observed cold anomalies in March 2011. In contrast, positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific may have contributed to the unusually weak tropospheric wave driving and strong Arctic vortex in late winter 2011. INSET: 1447. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aircraft observations made off the coast of northern Chile in the Southeastern Pacific (20° S, 72° W; named Point Alpha) from 16 October to 13 November 2008 during the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud- Atmosphere-Land Study-Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx), combined with meteorological reanalysis, satellite measurements, and radiosonde data, are used to investigate the boundary layer (BL) and aerosol-cloud-drizzle variations in this region. On days without predominately synoptic and meso-scale influences, the BL at Point Alpha was typical of a non-drizzling stratocumulus-topped BL. Entrainment rates calculated from the near cloud-top fluxes and turbulence in the BL at Point Alpha appeared to be weaker than those in the BL over the open ocean west of Point Alpha and the BL near the coast of the northeast Pacific. The cloud liquid water path (LWP) varied between 15 gm-2 and 160 gm-2. The BL had a depth of 1140 ± 120 m, was generally well-mixed and capped by a sharp inversion without predominately synoptic and mesoscale influences. The wind direction generally switched from southerly within the BL to northerly above the inversion. On days when a synoptic system and related mesoscale costal circulations affected conditions at Point Alpha (29 October- 4 November), a moist layer above the inversion moved over Point Alpha, and the total-water mixing ratio above the inversion was larger than that within the BL. The accumulation mode aerosol varied from 250 to 700 cm-3 within the BL, and CCN at 0.2% supersaturation within the BL ranged between 150 and 550 cm-3. The main aerosol source at Point Alpha was horizontal advection within the BL from south. The average cloud droplet number concentration ranged between 80 and 400 cm-3. While the mean LWP retrieved from GOES was in good agreement with the in situ measurements, the GOES-derived cloud droplet effective radius tended to be larger than that from the aircraft in situ observations near cloud top. The aerosol and cloud LWP relationship reveals that during the typical well-mixed BL days the cloud LWP increased with the CCN concentrations. On the other hand, meteorological factors and the decoupling processes have large influences on the cloud LWP variation as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30-40 days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interannual variability (IAV) of 2m temperature ( T), sea level pressure ( SLP) and precipitation ( P) in the CMIP3 20th century model simulations are compared with IAV in observational and reanalysis data sets using standard deviation based variability indices. Further, the relation between the representation of T IAV and the amplitude of future warming is investigated. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, T and SLP IAV are (in contrast to P) in general well represented although a few models perform much worse than others. General problem regions are: (1) sea ice boundary regions, where well-known biases in the mean states exist; and (2) the Pacific Ocean and Central Africa where SLP IAV is consistently underestimated. T and SLP IAV discrepancies are often found in similar regions and are large in well-known bias problem regions in the tropics and subtropics and high mountain regions. 'Bad' IAV representation also occurs in regions with small biases. T IAV is in general better reproduced over land than over sea and in the extratropics than in the tropics. Among the 'good' IAV models there is no robust relation between the tropics (sea only) and the extratropics (land only). The relation between the model's ability to correctly represent T IAV and projected temperature changes is slightly negative (more warming for better IAV representation) but except for the NH summer season not significant when the worst models in terms of IAV representation are omitted. This suggests that aggregated over large regions (with exception of NH summer) no robust relations are found between the model's ability to correctly represent T IAV and the projected temperature change. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During summer 2007 the Arctic sea-ice shrank to the lowest extent ever observed. The role of the atmospheric energy transport in this extreme melt event is explored using the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We find that in summer 2007 there was an anomalous atmospheric flow of warm and humid air into the region that suffered severe melt. This anomaly was larger than during any other year in the data (1989-2008). Convergence of the atmospheric energy transport over this area led to positive anomalies of the downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes. In the region that experienced unusual ice melt, the net anomaly of the surface fluxes provided enough extra energy to melt roughly one meter of ice during the melting season. When the ocean successively became ice-free, the surface-albedo decreased causing additional absorption of shortwave radiation, despite the fact that the downwelling solar radiation was smaller than average. We argue that the positive anomalies of net downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes played a key role in initiating the 2007 extreme ice melt, whereas the shortwave-radiation changes acted as an amplifying feedback mechanism in response to the melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts on the coupled variability of the Indo-Pacific by including the effects of surface currents on surface stress are explored in four extended integrations of an experimental version of the Bureau of Meteorology's coupled seasonal forecast model POAMA. The first pair of simulations differs only in their treatment of momentum coupling: one version includes the effects of surface currents on the surface stress computation and the other does not. The version that includes the effect of surface currents has less mean-state bias in the equatorial Pacific cold tongue but produces relatively weak coupled variability in the Tropics, especially that related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The version without the effects of surface currents has greater bias in the Pacific cold tongue but stronger IOD and ENSO variability. In order to diagnose the role of changes in local coupling from changes in remote forcing by ENSO for causing changes in IOD variability, a second set of simulations is conducted where effects of surface currents are included only in the Indian Ocean and only in the Pacific Ocean. IOD variability is found to be equally reduced by inclusion of the local effects of surface currents in the Indian Ocean and by the reduction of ENSO variability as a result of including effects of surface currents in the Pacific. Some implications of these results for predictability of the IOD and its dependence on ENSO, and for ocean subsurface data assimilation are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

seasonal forecast system based on a global, fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is used to (1) evaluate the interannual predictability of the Northwest Pacific climate during June-August following El Niño [JJA(1)], and (2) examine the contribution from the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) variability. The model retrospective forecast for 1983-2006 captures major modes of atmospheric variability over the Northwest Pacific during JJA(1), including a rise in sea level pressure (SLP), an anomalous anticyclone at the surface, and a reduction in subtropical rainfall, and increased rainfall to the northeast over East Asia. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for the leading principal components (PCs) of SLP and rainfall stays above 0.5 for lead time up to 3-4 months. The predictability for zonal wind is slightly better. An additional experiment is performed by prescribing the SST climatology over the TIO. In this run, designated as NoTIO, the Northwest Pacific anticyclone during JJA(1) weakens considerably and reduces its westward extension. Without an interactive TIO, the ACC for PC prediction drops significantly. To diagnose the TIO effect on the circulation, the differences between the two runs (Control minus NoTIO) are analyzed. The diagnosis shows that El Nino causes the TIO SST to rise and to remain high until JJA(1). In response to the higher than usual SST, precipitation increases over the TIO and excites a warm atmospheric Kelvin wave, which propagates into the western Pacific along the equator. The decrease in equatorial SLP drives northeasterly wind anomalies, induces surface wind divergence, and suppresses convection over the subtropical Northwest Pacific. An anomalous anticyclone forms in the Northwest Pacific, and the intensified moisture transport on its northwest flank causes rainfall to increase over East Asia. In the NoTIO experiment, the Northwest Pacific anticyclone weakens but does not disappear. Other mechanisms for maintaining this anomalous circulation are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer monsoon onset over southern Vietnam is determined through a new criterion based on both in situ daily rainfall at six selected stations provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Vietnam, and the zonal component of the wind at 1,000 hPa from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy Reanalysis 2. Over the period 1979–2004, the summer monsoon onset mean date is on 12 May, with a standard deviation of 11.6 days. The temporal and spatial structures of the atmospheric conditions prevailing during the onset period are detailed. Clear changes are seen in the zonal wind (strengthened over the Bay of Bengal and changed from negative to positive over South Vietnam) and in convection (deeper), in association with an intensification of the meridional gradients of sea level pressure at 1,000 hPa and of moist static energy at 2 m over Southeast Asia. The predictability of onset dates is then assessed. Cross-validated hindcasts based upon four predictors linked to robust signals in the atmospheric dynamics are then provided. They are highly significant when compared to observations (56% of common variance). Basically, late (early) onsets are preceded in March–April by higher (lower) sea level pressure over the East China Sea, stronger (weaker) southeasterly winds over southern Vietnam, decreasing (increasing) deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, and the reverse situation over Indonesia (120–140°E, 0–10°S). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eleven (10 Pacific, 1 Atlantic) tropical cyclones (TCs), which include typhoons/hurricanes and tropical storms, are examined using the latest 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track data to determine if and how tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) cells influence TC tracks. This type of interaction has led to rather large TC track forecast errors at 72 h (2000+ km) in the northwest Pacific and is often ignored or poorly forecast due to inadequate numerical model TUTT cell predictions. Ten selected cases out of the initial 25 potential Pacific cases exhibited a “nonstandard” TC track; a TUTT cell was the sole large-scale transient feature within 2000 km of the TC’s center, and the TC intensity was >17 m s-1. The circulations’ separation distance, orientation, intensity, and TUTT cell’s closed circulation size are critical characteristics in determining the likelihood of a TUTT cell influencing a TC track. Interactions occur at distances greater than 1700 km, continue for periods from 24 to 48 h, and occur 2–3 times per year in the NW Pacific. Examination of the TC’s tropospheric winds’ deep layer mean (100–1000 hPa), and upper (100–500 hPa), middle (300–850 hPa), and lower (500–1000 hPa) layers, along with various quadrants of the upper layer, demonstrate a link between the TUTT cell’s wind field and the nonstandard TC tracks. A conceptual model of how a TUTT cell can influence TC track is presented. The model provides decision-grade operational guidance for TC forecasters using pattern recognition scenarios. Application of the conceptual model at the JTWC is currently under way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The limits of predictability of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in coupled models are investigated based on retrospective forecasts of sea surface temperature (SST) made with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system (CFS). The influence of initial uncertainties and model errors associated with coupled ENSO dynamics on forecast error growth are discussed. The total forecast error has maximum values in the equatorial Pacific and its growth is a strong function of season irrespective of lead time. The largest growth of systematic error of SST occurs mainly over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific and near the southeastern coast of the Americas associated with ENSO events. After subtracting the systematic error, the root-mean-square error of the retrospective forecast SST anomaly also shows a clear seasonal dependency associated with what is called spring barrier. The predictability with respect to ENSO phase shows that the phase locking of ENSO to the mean annual cycle has an influence on the seasonal dependence of skill, since the growth phase of ENSO events is more predictable than the decay phase. The overall characteristics of predictability in the coupled system are assessed by comparing the forecast error growth and the error growth between two model forecasts whose initial conditions are 1 month apart. For the ensemble mean, there is fast growth of error associated with initial uncertainties, becoming saturated within 2 months. The subsequent error growth follows the slow coupled mode related the model’s incorrect ENSO dynamics. As a result, the Lorenz curve of the ensemble mean NINO3 index does not grow, because the systematic error is identical to the same target month. In contrast, the errors of individual members grow as fast as forecast error due to the large instability of the coupled system. Because the model errors are so systematic, their influence on the forecast skill is investigated by analyzing the erroneous features in a long simulation. For the ENSO forecasts in CFS, a constant phase shift with respect to lead month is clear, using monthly forecast composite data. This feature is related to the typical ENSO behavior produced by the model that, unlike the observations, has a long life cycle with a JJA peak. Therefore, the systematic errors in the long run are reflected in the forecast skill as a major factor limiting predictability after the impact of initial uncertainties fades out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have studied the spatial and temporal variation of the surface longwave radiation (downwelling and net) over a 21-year period in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean (40 S-40 N, 90 E-75 W). The fluxes were computed using a deterministic model for atmospheric radiation transfer, along with satellite data from the ISCCP-D2 database and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (acronyms explained in main text), for the key atmospheric and surface input parameters. An excellent correlation was found between the downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) anomaly and the Niño-3.4 index time-series, over the Niño-3.4 region located in the central Pacific. A high anti-correlation was also found over the western Pacific (15-0 S, 105-130 E). There is convincing evidence that the time series of the mean downwelling longwave radiation anomaly in the western Pacific precedes that in the Niño-3.4 region by 3-4 months. Thus, the downwelling longwave radiation anomaly is a complementary index to the SST anomaly for the study of ENSO events and can be used to asses whether or not El Niño or La Niña conditions prevail. Over the Niño-3.4 region, the mean DLR anomaly values range from +20Wm-2 during El Niño episodes to -20Wm-2 during La Niña events, while over the western Pacific (15-0 S, 105-130 E) these values range from -15Wm-2 to +10Wm-2, respectively. The long- term average (1984-2004) distribution of the net downwelling longwave radiation at the surface over the tropical and subtropical Pacific for the three month period November-December-January shows a net thermal cooling of the ocean surface. When El Niño conditions prevail, the thermal radiative cooling in the central and south-eastern tropical Pacific becomes weaker by 10 Wm-2 south of the equator in the central Pacific (7-0 S, 160-120 W) for the three-month period of NDJ, because the DLR increase is larger than the increase in surface thermal emission. In contrast, the thermal radiative cooling over Indonesia is enhanced by 10Wm-2 during the early (August-September-October) El Niño phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Synoptic extra-tropical cyclone and anticyclone trajectories have been constructed from mean daily sea level pressure (SLP) data using a new automated scheme. Frequency, intensity and trajectory characteristics of these transients have been summarized to form indices describing wintertime cyclonic and anticyclonic activity over the North-Eastern Pacific (east of 170°W) during 1950–2001. During this period, the strength of anticyclones gradually diminished and their frequency became more variable, while cyclones intensified in a discrete shift with deeper lows and further southerly trajectories occurring since the mid-1970s. These changes in synoptic transients translate into anomalously low seasonal mean SLP in the Aleutian Low, a low-level circulation anomaly consistent with the positive phase of the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the west coast of North America and negative in the central North Pacific Ocean. A link between cyclonic/anticyclonic activity and tropical SST anomalies also exists, but this link only becomes significant after the mid-1970s, a period that coincides with more southerly cyclone trajectories. Southward excursions of mid-latitude cyclones during El Niño/positive NPO winters accomplish the northward advection of tropical air and discourage the southward penetration of polar air masses associated with transient anticyclones. Naturally, these changes in cyclonic/anticyclonic activity directly impact surface air temperatures, especially at night. We document these profound impacts on observed wintertime minimum temperatures over Western North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]