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Sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) supports substantial fisheries in both the eastern and western Pacific Oceans. Juvenile recruitment along the west coast of the continental United States has been highly variable over the past three decades. Using a generalized additive model, we demonstrate that physical oceanographic variables within the California Current System have significant effects on sablefish recruitment. Significant relationships were found between juvenile recruitment and northward Ekman transport, eastward Ekman transport, and sea level during key times and at key locations within the habitat of this species. The model explains nearly 70% of the variability in sablefish recruitment between the years 1974 and 2000. The predictive power of the model was demonstrated by refitting without the last 5 yr of data and subsequent prediction of those years. Bootstrap assessments of bias associated with parameter estimates and jackknife-after-bootstrap assessments of the influence of individual data on parameter estimates are presented and discussed. Using this model, it is possible to draw preliminary conclusions concerning year-class strength of cohorts not yet available to the survey gear as well as historic year-class strengths. We discuss changes in zooplankton abundance and shifts in species of copepods associated with fluctuations in the physical variables that appear to have a major influence on sablefish recruitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]