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A decadal change in the character of ENSO was observed around year 2000 toward weaker-amplitude, higher-frequency events with an increased occurrence of central Pacific El Niños. Here these changes are assessed in terms of the Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), which is a measure of the growth rate of ENSO-related SST anomalies. The individual terms of the index are calculated from ocean reanalysis products separately for the time periods 1980-99 and 2000-10. The spread between the products is large, but they show a robust weakening of the thermocline feedback due to a reduced thermocline slope response to anomalous zonal wind stress as well as a weakened wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. These changes are consistent with changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific: cooler mean SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific results in reduced convection there together with a westward shift in the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This shift leads to a weakening in the relationship between eastern Pacific SST and longitudinally averaged equatorial zonal wind stress. Also, despite a steeper mean thermocline slope in the more recent period, the thermocline slope response to wind stress anomalies weakened due to a smaller zonal wind fetch that results from ENSO-related wind anomalies being more confined to the western basin. As a result, the total BJ index is more negative, corresponding to a more strongly damped system in the past decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The common use of remotely located, buoy-mounted capacitance rain gauges in the tropical oceans for satellite rainfall verification studies provides motivation for an in situ gauge bias assessment. A comparison of the biases in rainfall catchment between Pacific island tipping-bucket rain gauges and capacitance rain gauges mounted on moored buoys in the tropical Pacific is conducted using the relationship between the fractional time in rain and monthly rainfall. This study utilizes the widespread spatial homogeneity of this relationship in the tropics to assess the rain catchment of both types of gauges at given values for the fractional time in rain. The results indicate that the capacitance gauges are not statistically significantly biased relative to the island-based tipping-bucket gauges. In addition, given the relatively small error bounds about the bias estimates any real bias differences among all the tested gauges are likely to be quite small compared to monthly rainfall totals. Underestimates resulting from wind biases, which may be substantial, are not documented in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have described the impacts of wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, these studies have usually focused on individual El Niño events and typically have not considered impacts on La Niña—the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. This paper examines effects of wind stress and heat flux forcing on interannual SST variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific from sensitivity tests using an ocean general circulation model over the period 1980–2002. Results indicate that in the Niño-3 region (5°N–5°S, 90°–150°W) a zonal wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m-2 leads to about 1°C SST anomaly and that air–sea heat fluxes tend to damp interannual SST anomalies generated by other physical processes at a rate of about 40 W m-2 (°C)-1. These results systematically quantify expectations from previous event specific numerical model studies that local forcing in the eastern Pacific can significantly affect the evolution of both warm and cold phases of the ENSO cycle. The results are also consistent with a strictly empirical analysis that indicates that a wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m-2 leads to ∼1°C SST anomaly in the Niño-3 region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents detailed information on the formation, workings, and termination of the 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic and oceanographic phenomenon, based on observation systems put in place by the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program. Effects of warm sea-surface temperatures, the rapid development of El Nino, and ocean currents; Chronological accounting of ENSO events; Delayed oscillator theory of the evolution of the climate system; Predictability.