1. Abstract 12623: A New ASCVD Risk Estimator is More Accurate Than the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equation in Four Diverse Community-Based Populations in the U.S. and Canada.
- Author
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Go, Alan S, Tabada, Grace, Reynolds, Kristi, Fortmann, Stephen P, Garg, Amit, Scott, Ronald D, Young, Joseph, Lo, Joan C, Solomon, Matthew D, Wei, Rong, Allison, Michael J, McArthur, Eric, Nash, Danielle M, Sung, Sue Hee, and Rana, Jamal S
- Subjects
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ELECTRONIC health records , *DEATH certificates , *ELECTRONIC systems , *TREATMENT of diabetes - Abstract
Introduction: The Kaiser Permanente ASCVD Risk Estimator (KPARE) was developed to address the systematic overestimation of actual ASCVD risk by the ACC/AHA ASCVD Pooled Cohort Equation (ACC/AHA PCE) in contemporary populations. We evaluated the accuracy and generalizability of KPARE for estimating 10-year ASCVD risk in eligible primary prevention, community-based populations in the U.S. and Canada, as compared with the ACC/AHA PCE. Methods: We identified adults 40-79 years old in 3 contemporary U.S. populations (Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), Southern California (KPSC) and Northwest (KPNW), as well as adults 66-79 years old in Ontario, Canada who had LDL-C 70-189 mg/dL, no known ASCVD, diabetes or lipid-lowering therapy and had complete follow-up. Non-fatal and fatal ASCVD events were ascertained from health system electronic health records and death certificates using validated algorithms. We examined observed ASCVD event rates within deciles of predicted 10-year risk using the KPARE vs. the ACC/AHA PCE predicted risk, and calculated metrics of discrimination and calibration. Results: In eligible primary prevention validation cohorts of KPNC (N=151,409), KPSC (N=246,815), KPNW (N=46,784), and Ontario, Canada (N=60,612 adults), the KPARE showed both better discrimination and calibration (Figure) compared to the ACC/AHA PCE to predict 10-year risk of ASCVD events, with c-statistics of 0.78, 0.78, 0.79, and 0.65, respectively. Categorical net reclassification index showed the KPARE improved ASCVD risk prediction over the ACC/AHA PCE by 23% in the KPNC validation cohort, 24% in KPSC, 33% in KPNW, and 25% in Ontario, Canada. Results were similar when stratified by race-gender subgroups. Conclusions: The new Kaiser Permanente ASCVD Risk Estimator provides more accurate ASCVD risk estimates in various community populations than the ACC/AHA PCE and may provide greater utility in shared decision-making for primary prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018