Search

The number of Canadians diagnosed with cancer, and subsequent demand for radiation therapy, are expected to increase over time. This study aimed to update our needs-based workforce planning model to ensure appropriate staffing levels in the future. The supply of radiation oncologists, by age group, sex, and full-time equivalent status, was projected from 2020 to 2040 using a recursive-aging, input-output model developed with seeding parameters derived from national sources. The demand for radiation oncologists until 2040 was estimated using referral patterns for radiation therapy and consultation workload metrics applied to projected annual cancer incident cases to calculate required full-time equivalent positions. Baseline model parameters were also applied to the 2005-2019 workforce and incident case data to evaluate preprojection supply and demand trends. Preprojection trends for 2005 to 2019 revealed accelerated staffing growth that transitioned from a workforce shortage to a surplus state in 2014 followed by substantial growth slowdown in 2016. The model predicts a transient surplus of radiation oncologists until 2026 followed by a projected deficit in subsequent years. Sensitivity analyses using the plausible range for each parameter continued to favor an undersupply, suggesting a trainee shortage unable to meet workforce expansion needs. Considering possible future declining trends in radiotherapy utilization and workload, calculations to inform corrective efforts in resident numbers resulted in 25 entry positions per year, up from 21 per year currently. Geographic distribution of trainees, relative to workforce and cancer incidence distributions, could be improved with more residency positions in Canadian regions outside Ontario. Demand for radiation therapy and radiation oncologists in Canada are expected to grow more quickly than future expansion in staffing levels. Our workforce planning model provides evidence for more trainee requirements to inform stakeholders of possible corrective actions to training programs and recruitment. Further research is needed to explore additional strategies to expand capacity and high-quality delivery of radiation therapy to meet the foreseeable increase in Canadian patients with cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To identify and report radiation oncologist (RO) workforce demographics, clinical workload trends, and equipment inventory in Canada.Methods and Materials: The Canadian Association of Radiation Oncology (CARO) distributed an online survey to RO administrative leaders at 47 Canadian cancer centers providing radiation therapy services from June to December 2017. The survey queried RO staff demographics, clinical workload, and equipment inventory from 2014 to 2016.Results: The response rate was 98% and represented 46 of 47 centers for analysis. In 2016, 510 ROs were in practice, with 98 ROs (19.2%) having <1.0 full-time equivalent (FTE) clinical work activities because of administration, research, or part-time employment. Most ROs worked full-time (92.0%), were affiliated with a university (77.5%), and worked in communities with a population >200,000 (84.9%). Approximately half (52.3%) were ≥46 years old. The male-to female ratio was 1.5:1 or higher in all regions of Canada except for Quebec, where there was no gender gap. Part-time employment was more common among female ROs (P < .01). Although FTE staff levels rose steadily between 2014 (456.3) and 2016 (475.8), an increase in patient workload resulted in a rise in the average annual consults per FTE-RO (from 257 to 267). Over a 2-year period, there were 63.5 FTE-recruitments and 44.0 FTE-departures (18.3 FTE-retirements; 25.7 FTE-migration) for a net gain of 19.5 RO-FTEs. An 8.4% increase in FTE staffing to 516 RO-FTEs in 2019 is anticipated, with 22 ROs expected to retire by 2019. There were 251 megavoltage linear accelerators across Canada, with most (39.8%) located in Ontario. Approximately one-fifth (20.7%) of these were older than 10 years and operating beyond the equipment's recommended life span.Conclusions: The Canadian RO workforce demonstrated incremental growth, but rising annual caseloads suggest that radiation therapy demand outpaced RO supply gains. Government funding is required to replace aging equipment in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]